Hurricane Alex

maquiladora

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

billy the squid

That will put a halt to any repair works going on with the Deepwater rig.

Will have some media links probably tomorrow as it gets closer.

maquiladora

Will probably be Alex on the next update. Its really getting its act together.

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/6886/movie3733326.gif

Yucatan will knock it down a peg or two but then who knows what will happen when it gets back over open water...

Sponge Bob

Bet the BP 'top hat' will scuttle ashore tomorrow

billy the squid

BELIZE

Selection of Belizian radio stations here. Real Player required

http://www.belizeweb.com/

maquiladora

Now Tropical Storm Alex (could a mod edit the thread title please?)

Models at the moment pointing towards a Texas or Mexico landfall after moves over the Yucatan.

billy the squid

Update on media

Vibes FM appears to be offline, you can get the Love FM feed though.

maquiladora

Has dropped down to TD status after making initial landfall. Expected to quickly regain Storm strength and then grow to Hurricane strength early in the week before making landfall again.

NHC track shows a probable Mexico landfall, but some of the models want to bring it further north. GFS is going for a Texas landfall now :

Deep Easterly

Back out to sea:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastir.html


Current position:



http://www.stormpulse.com/

alexlyons

I do apologise

Welsh Wizard

I'm heading to riviera cancun tomorrow morning for 10 days, can anyone give me an update on Alex..?

Will I pack my kite..? or wellies...?

Thanks..

snowstreams

It seems to have passed over the Yucatan peninsula without causing much problems. And there are no more storms heading that way at the moment. So you should be fine without wellies.
Thats not to say that another storm could form and make landfall there in a week or so.

Welsh Wizard

snowstreams wrote: »

It seems to have passed over the Yucatan peninsula without causing much problems. And there are no more storms heading that way at the moment. So you should be fine without wellies.
Thats not to say that another storm could form and make landfall there in a week or so.

Thanks Snowstreams...

billy the squid

Some Doppler stations

Brownsville Texas
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=bro&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Houston Texas
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&overlay=11111111&loop=no

maquiladora

Back looking more like a Mexico landfall again but too early to rule out Texas, models have been flipflopping a bit.

No sign of any other tropical development anywhere else.

maquiladora

Now Hurricane Alex, looks like it will be a Cat 1 on landfall in Mexico.

sirpsycho

Wow, it's some size now. Rainbands hitting Louisiana even.

Wet day ahead for some...

billy the squid

BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

Radio 710 KURV (Silverlight/Windows Media Player required)

http://www.kurv.com/

forkassed

lonestargirl

Rain hit us Thurs morn and continued 36 hours straight, no wind worth talking about but we did lose power for a few hours with a lightening strike. Glanced out my front window yesterday to see the water rising over the front bumper of the car :eek: Drains were clear the rain was just so heavy it couldn't drain fast enough. Hopefully this will not be an active Atlantic hurricane season.

maquiladora

For what its worth, Alex was the strongest June hurricane for something like 44 years.

Some of the models suggesting tropical development towards the middle of next week.