Time to buy BP?

Blisterman

Shares have plumetted over the gulf spill, losing 55 Billion off their value.

I know they'll have all sorts of fines, lawsuits etc to pay, and their PR has taken a big hit, but it's a big company, and it seems to me, that there's no way, the spill could affect them that much in the long term.

I'm a complete amateur, anyone who knows more than me, have any advice?

pirelli

Goldman sachs got out the calculator and estimated all the billions they would have to pay over 32 billion I think they estimated. They concluded the price would be around $52 dollars.. this was a few days ago.

This might drag and also why invest in a company as rotton as BP. They destroyed the southern coast of Alabama if not America. They could have nuked it from day 1, I think.

Smcgie

pirelli wrote: »

Goldman sachs got out the calculator and estimated all the billions they would have to pay over 32 billion I think they estimated. They concluded the price would be around $52 dollars.. this was a few days ago.

This might drag and also why invest in a company as rotton as BP. They destroyed the southern coast of Alabama if not America. They could have nuked it from day 1, I think.

You say it as if BP planned the oil spill. It was an accident, an accident that cost 11 people their lives. This aside it could have happened due to negligence on 1 workers part. The rig is also operated (for BP) by transocean. If you were telling people not to invest in BP due to morals the make sure to explain the full story.

Its ironic that the people that are doing the most shouting are the same people that have the greatest hunger for black gold.

~BUY BP up to £3.50

Mr_Roger_Bongos

I read recently that 40% of BP's assets in terms of oil drilling are US offshore, which seems like a sizable chunk of the operation.

I think if Bush was in power the markets wouldn't be as worried as the long term future of their US operations wouldn't be in jeopardy. However its Obama and he's making all these noises about ass kicking/boot to the throat of BP/ i'll make them pay.

But i feel Obama has a dilema - We're always hearing about reducing US dependance on foreign oil (as an energy policy goal) and BP are big operator in the US. There's a moratorium on new deepwater drilling off the US coast but if they want to reduce foreign dependancy this will have to be lifted.

Am i wrong in saying BP would be insured for such events, including cleanup and liability? Barring a major legislative action against them or their US operations, i'd be fairly optimistic in the long term for the share price to recover.

All of this is subjective with no financial analysis other than the percentage of assets they have in the US. I think the company is sound but politics will decide their short/medium term future.

dysfunktional

screw the morals,i was thinking of buying bp shares in the next week ,its an oil company ,there gonna recover sooner or later! anyone have any unbiased advice?!

displaced dub

pirelli wrote: »

Goldman sachs got out the calculator and estimated all the billions they would have to pay over 32 billion I think they estimated. They concluded the price would be around $52 dollars.. this was a few days ago.

This might drag and also why invest in a company as rotton as BP. They destroyed the southern coast of Alabama if not America. They could have nuked it from day 1, I think.

they could have done this from day 1 but its supposed to be a last resort, the russians did this 3 times to good effect.

displaced dub

Blisterman wrote: »

Shares have plumetted over the gulf spill, losing 55 Billion off their value.

I know they'll have all sorts of fines, lawsuits etc to pay, and their PR has taken a big hit, but it's a big company, and it seems to me, that there's no way, the spill could affect them that much in the long term.

I'm a complete amateur, anyone who knows more than me, have any advice?

I would hold off, i held BP shares up until a week ago and the only reason i was in BP from the start was the high % divi. I cant see how they will be able to pay this out for at least the next 2 quarters.

I will buy in again in the future but only after the leak is plugged.

displaced dub

Blisterman wrote: »

Shares have plumetted over the gulf spill, losing 55 Billion off their value.

I know they'll have all sorts of fines, lawsuits etc to pay, and their PR has taken a big hit, but it's a big company, and it seems to me, that there's no way, the spill could affect them that much in the long term.

I'm a complete amateur, anyone who knows more than me, have any advice?

From the LEX column in the FT

Botched Probabilities
Published: June 10 2010 15:14 | Last updated: June 10 2010 18:46
Believers in the markets’ wisdom occasionally wind up like the apocryphal economics professor who left a $100 bill lying on a busy sidewalk, figuring that it would have been picked up already if it were real. Shares can be mispriced at the best of times and especially at the worst of times, the latter surely applying to BP. Even with the not insignificant possibility that shareholders get wiped out, money is being left on the sidewalk.

The classic argument against buying a distressed security is that one should never catch a falling knife. But what does this really mean? It applies either to professional fund managers who fear looking stupid for upping their stake in a stock that could go far lower, or to punters who delude themselves into believing they can call the bottom. Only a fool would make a firm prediction about BP now. But to sell at the current depressed level may be equally foolish for diversified investors unconcerned with risk to their careers.

CMA Datavision quotes BP’s one-year credit default swaps at 674 basis points. Assuming its liability is a crippling $120bn, half its gross assets or a bit more than half its pre-spill market value, the swaps imply nearly a 15 per cent probability of shareholders getting zero. Giving a further 50 per cent odds that the liability will be a painful but not life-threatening $50bn and a 35 per cent probability of $35bn (analyst consensus), the weighted probability implies BP is worth $130bn. In other words, on as good a guestimate as is possible today, fearful selling has left about 30 per cent upside on the table for the taking.

Such back-of-the-envelope musings carry little weight with investment professionals until the value is obvious. But, like the professor’s $100 bill, today’s share price for BP may not stick around long enough for that to happen.

E-mail the Lex team confidentially

displaced dub

Also from FT

The reason investors have been panicking about BP over the past couple of days is that the US administration has apparently crossed a line in its determination to take action against the company.

When Ken Salazar, the interior secretary, said he would hold BP responsible for the wages of workers on oil rigs who lost their jobs, he raised the prospect that the cost to BP could be limited only by the administration’s restraint.

Mr Salazar told a Senate energy committee hearing that job losses among workers laid off as a result of the administration’s six-month ban on deep-water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico were “some of the consequences from that [BP] oil spill”, and therefore the company’s responsibility.

The concern for BP’s investors is not just the extra cost in itself, which could potentially run into billions, but the signal it sends on how far the administration is prepared to stretch the definition of damage caused by the spill.

By the same logic, the government could pursue BP for the tax revenues it will not earn on the operations shut down by the drilling ban. The possibilities for similar claims are endless.

Some commentators have drawn a parallel with Yukos, once Russia’s largest oil group but forced into bankruptcy between 2003 and 2006 under pressure from Vladimir Putin, then president.

That analogy may be exaggerated, but investors’ fears about the attitude of the administration are real.

Thursday’s fall in the share price to its lowest since 1997, even though it was reversed later in the day, and the soaring cost of insuring BP’s debt against default to junk bond levels, reflected growing nervousness that the financial burden of the Deepwater Horizon accident might be hard to bear, even for a company the size of BP.

Until now, the debate on BP’s dividend, the central issue driving the share price, has focused on the question of political tactics.

When the board comes to take a decision on the second-quarter dividend, to be announced on July 27, some analysts believe it should make a gesture to placate US lawmakers. who have been demanding that it should be suspended until the full costs of the disaster are known.

Costs absorbed
Most oil companies are absorbing the costs of the moratorium in the Gulf of Mexico and maintaining contracts with drilling rigs, which will limit the financial effect of any lost wages bill on BP, analysts say, writes Sheila McNulty in Houston.

Only Anadarko Petroleum has issued a notice of force majeure to drilling contractors on three of four rigs it has in the gulf, and even the application of that escape clause is under dispute from at least one of the drillers.

That leaves 28 rigs still under contract, with some operators using the drillers to do much-needed maintenance, such as injecting chemicals into old wells to increase the level of production. Others are completing operations on already drilled wells.

Royal Dutch Shell, for example, said it had a “portfolio of work” approved by regulators that its four semi-submersible rigs in the gulf could do in the short term. For the longer term, it was assessing business plans.

Other operators may not have immediate uses for the drillers and are considering sending them to other deepwater prospects in Brazil or west Africa.

And still others, which are focused on the gulf, are attempting to negotiate a reduced rate with drillers to maintain the expertise in this country until the moratorium is lifted.

“The expertise and talent on those deepwater rigs is very sophisticated,”’ says Arun Jayaram, a Credit Suisse research analyst who focuses on the drilling sector. “You’re not going to see significant layoffs.’’

Questions about the financial effect on BP from lost wages during the moratorium arose on Wednesday, when Ken Salazar, US interior secretary, told the Senate’s energy and natural resources committee to add the salaries of workers laid off by the moratorium to its bill from the spill.

Tony Hayward, BP’s chief executive, told shareholders last week that the company had sufficient financial strength to meet its obligations to “all stakeholders”, including investors as well as the communities of the Gulf coast affected by the spill.

“From a financial point of view, the numbers are there to pay the dividend,” says Richard Griffith of Evolution Securities.

“But there is an emotive situation going on here, and BP’s board might decide to suspend the dividend for two quarters to cover the capping of the well and the majority of the clean-up.”

As estimates of the cost to BP escalate, however, the financial strain it could impose on the company begins to look significant.

Analysts at Citigroup forecast that BP will have free cash flow after its dividend of only about $1.2bn (€1bn, £827m) this year, after paying the same dividend as last year, at a cost of $10.5bn.

The cost of tackling the spill has already exceeded that figure, BP has said, which means that the cost of the clean-up will have to be funded by higher borrowings.

BP entered the crisis in a strong financial position, with debt just below its target range of 20-30 per cent of capital employed, but that gives it room to borrow only about another $18bn before it risks going over that ceiling.

Next year and thereafter, free cash flow should improve to about $12bn per year, Citigroup believes, but that figure is based on an oil price of $80 per barrel, and a weaker price would mean a tighter cash position.

Cutting capital spending, which is about $20bn per year, would be possible but highly damaging to BP’s future.

The inherent decline of oil and gas fields means that companies are constantly running to stand still, having to develop new production merely to stop their output falling.

BP already invests at only about 70 per cent of the rate of Royal Dutch Shell, its leading European rival.

The result is that if the cost of the disaster rises to $40bn or so, the figure now being suggested by some analysts, with most of that likely to come in punitive damages, it will have a significant impact on BP’s cash flows.

Even if spread over a number of years, which it would be, it would put the dividend under pressure if combined with a period of weak oil prices.

The risk that the US administration will keep adding to the costs explains why BP’s investors – and no doubt the company itself, if only as worst-case scenario planning – are considering extreme options such as a takeover, demerger or receivership.

Final relief for BP is unlikely to come until after the US elections in November, the company’s executives believe.

By then, the well should have been plugged, and most of the oil cleaned from the coast, although the environmental damage is likely to take many years to put right.

With the immediate political pressures behind it, the administration is likely to feel it can ease up a bit on BP.

Until then, however, the company’s investors are likely to be in for a bumpy ride.

displaced dub

Smcgie wrote: »

You say it as if BP planned the oil spill. It was an accident, an accident that cost 11 people their lives. This aside it could have happened due to negligence on 1 workers part. The rig is also operated (for BP) by transocean. If you were telling people not to invest in BP due to morals the make sure to explain the full story.

Its ironic that the people that are doing the most shouting are the same people that have the greatest hunger for black gold.

~BUY BP up to £3.50

I would buy Shell, it has a divi yield of 6% and it its current price i think its worth a look.

woodseb

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

Am i wrong in saying BP would be insured for such events, including cleanup and liability? Barring a major legislative action against them or their US operations, i'd be fairly optimistic in the long term for the share price to recover.

the rig itself was insured but BP are self insured for everything else

Smcgie

displaced dub wrote: »

I would buy Shell, it has a divi yield of 6% and it its current price i think its worth a look.

I have no desire for dividends. I buy BP for a short term gain in SP. Im up 12% already and still have a possibilty of a dividend.

Research the Exxon Valdez spill, it should be enough to convice you that £55Billion off BP is oversold.

S.

pirelli

Smcgie wrote: »

You say it as if BP planned the oil spill. It was an accident, an accident that cost 11 people their lives. This aside it could have happened due to negligence on 1 workers part. The rig is also operated (for BP) by transocean. If you were telling people not to invest in BP due to morals the make sure to explain the full story.

Its ironic that the people that are doing the most shouting are the same people that have the greatest hunger for black gold.

~BUY BP up to £3.50

Buy BP if you like,but you just lost your 12%. Your now have nothing to boast about. Perhaps you have a 10% loss now.
The BP disaster was due to BP and not one single worker. Methane gas build up due to the failure of BP to listen because they couldn't cope with a problem so they ignored it and created problems that didn't exist instead.


B.P might have done this on purpose as the report alleges to save money.
This is not the fault of one worker. The irony is you lost all your money..that's ironic because that is what B.P are doing.

The House Energy and Commerce Committee is investigating the incident. In a statement made in June 2010 they noted that in a number of cases leading up to the explosion, BP appears to have chosen riskier procedures to save time or money, sometimes against the advice of its staff or contractors

That is not just spewing oil its spewing abiotic (or use of a better word) oil and highly toxic chemicals
This will never make them a profit. Americans won't invest in this disaster. They will invest in the clean up.


I invested in MOPN and made 100% in one hour. It has producded nice swing trades. I researched how it could be cleaned. That's black gold not some British/scottish leaking disaster. I never invest in the cause of something bad.

Smcgie wrote: »

I have no desire for dividends. I buy BP for a short term gain in SP. Im up 12% already and still have a possibilty of a dividend.

Research the Exxon Valdez spill, it should be enough to convice you that £55Billion off BP is oversold.
S.

Tell you what research the Deepwater Horizion oil spill. Exxon was a surface water oil spill. Much smaller, less people to compensate and less political pressure.

There is no comparison to the disaster that deep water horizon is causing top to bottom of the ocean. This is killing everything and depleteing oxygen in an area on the doorstep of such an immensely important area.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill

Look at the satillite picture



Might be a technical bounce in share price but have you not other stocks to look at. BSDM is up 17% at one point today. A simple FDA play i called.
MOPN is up 350% since I called it. Solar is up as usual always buy solar low on the dips.

Idu

Is it MOPN.PK? I'm looking at that and the 52week range is 0.17 - 0.35. Hardly 350%

pirelli

Idu wrote: »

Is it MOPN.PK? I'm looking at that and the 52week range is 0.17 - 0.35. Hardly 350%

Yes Einstein and thats why you should never trade. You were the first to criticise my post. Not surprising you cannot even remember your own crap.

I posted MOPN on the 06-05-20010. I bought it when it consolidated under
.10 after a huge run up.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=65764113&highlight=mopn#post65764113

Here is the thread. You might notice your usual sour tone as you critcise another brilliant post of mine.

Here is the thread where I sold for 100% profit. I suggested that you buy MOPN when it falls below .10 again. It did fall below .10 again to .07 then rallied from there to .35. If you divide subtract .35 by .07 and divide by .07 you will see you could have made a 400% profit if you had done as i had suggested or 350% if you had bought at just under .10 or just under as i suggested and obvioulsy it's hard to buy & sell at the exact peak so roughly 350% profit on 500 dollars is nothing to laugh at. How hard is it to watch it flicker at .07 and start moving back up and set a stop loss and give it a shot.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=65882104&highlight=mopn#post65882104


MAY 14th 2010

MOPN bought this at .085 ( remember i mentioned it in that thread) was up 145 % (over all last 2 days ) and 100% today. Sold at 100% ( missed the peak ) someone on my computer!

I like that stock. It has potential now for the next few weeks. Buying under
.10 selling on a spike.

I said watch SBRH today and it went up 160% fro a day trade. Perhaps i am just extremely lucky or i might have some information worth sharing.

I said watch BSDM and it went up 17% if not higher mid day.

etc etc etc....

Idu

Take it easy there buffet. I just looked up that share on yahoo finance after your last post because I didn't know what it was. It was yahoo finance that gave it the range of 17-35 that I mentioned. I was just wondering was it the right stock.

As for that post you highlight I think it's pretty obvious I was refering to your comment about a market conspiracy not an individual stock pick. I don't care about the stocks you pick, I wish you well with them. They don't interest me, I don't trade that way

displaced dub

Hi All

Dont know how many of you are familiar with downloading tv from the net via bit-torrent but if you are this is worth a look.

http://eztv.it/ep/21009/cbs-60-minutes-the-blowout-the-deepwater-horizon-disaster-2010-05-16-xvid-mp3-yt-pb/

pirelli

displaced dub wrote: »

Hi All

Dont know how many of you are familiar with downloading tv from the net via bit-torrent but if you are this is worth a look.

http://eztv.it/ep/21009/cbs-60-minutes-the-blowout-the-deepwater-horizon-disaster-2010-05-16-xvid-mp3-yt-pb/

Thanks displaceddub, I missed the end of the good wife last night, so I am also looking for an episode of this.

You need bit torrent to download a torrent.

displaced dub

Not good news for BP tonight.

NYT reporting they are looking at fines of between $66m and $250m per day based of amount of oil leaking and it gets worse, the amount of oil leaking has been revised up to between 30,000 bpd and 60,000bpd looks like BP are in for a battering again today.

D-Generate

I have to say I wouldn't touch BP at the moment. I simply do not think they are being truthful in their reporting of the emergency and are severely underestimating it. I cemented my judgement about this when BP were talking about the top-kill method having a 70% chance of success. The moment BP attached a percentage to the attempt then it was clear that they had no belief in it whatsoever to be successful. I believe if they honestly thought it would be 70% successful then they would have said it would be guaranteed successful.

Smcgie

Be greedy when others are fearful ~ W.Buffet

displaced dub

Smcgie wrote: »

Be greedy when others are fearful ~ W.Buffet

I thought his 1st rule was don't loose money and his 2nd rule was read the first one???

Personally i like BP and i think i will buy back in over the coming weeks when things calm down and the DIVI question is addressed.

Too many things in the air and i think it will get worse before it gets better.

Smcgie

I actually agree with you DD. But I have an appetite for risk and I will be buying every edge of the fallen knife.

Goodluck with all your investment.

displaced dub

Smcgie wrote: »

I actually agree with you DD. But I have an appetite for risk and I will be buying every edge of the fallen knife.

Goodluck with all your investment.

ill get out the bandaids so:D:D:D:D

Smcgie

displaced dub wrote: »

ill get out the bandaids so:D:D:D:D

its about stock acquisition for me. I don't really mind the risk. I want to be holding x number before the end of the year and I'm only one quarter of the way there. If it reaches £2.5 great, I can acquire more.

Yes this is a disaster that will take 3-4 years but its not going to cost over $100 billion to fix.

All IMO

Raskolnikov

Anyone who doesn't think that BP could go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy is wrong. Yes, BP is a cash cow; yes, they have tremendously valuable assets; but the government could easily fence off $20 billion in cash and liquid assets to pay for the clean-up. If that's the case, BP might not be able to pay their bills and face bankruptcy.

For the record, I held a little BP before crisis kicked off. My biggest mistake was believing management for the first week when they said this was containable. If I had stayed rational, I would have sold straight away and taken a 5% loss, rather than a 25% hit. I think that there are a lot of investors out there who are fooling themselves with their estimates of the clean-up. Given this is pretty much unprecedented in size and geography; I think it's best that people not try and catch this falling knife until the leak is capped and the liability established.

Smcgie

Raskolnikov wrote: »

I think it's best that people not try and catch this falling knife until the leak is capped and the liability established.

And the SP had rebounded by then?

displaced dub

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Anyone who doesn't think that BP could go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy is wrong. Yes, BP is a cash cow; yes, they have tremendously valuable assets; but the government could easily fence off $20 billion in cash and liquid assets to pay for the clean-up. If that's the case, BP might not be able to pay their bills and face bankruptcy.

For the record, I held a little BP before crisis kicked off. My biggest mistake was believing management for the first week when they said this was containable. If I had stayed rational, I would have sold straight away and taken a 5% loss, rather than a 25% hit. I think that there are a lot of investors out there who are fooling themselves with their estimates of the clean-up. Given this is pretty much unprecedented in size and geography; I think it's best that people not try and catch this falling knife until the leak is capped and the liability established.

BP put aside $20bn for compensation not clean up etc. Think $20bn is a fairly conservative number could easily double.

pirelli

Smcgie wrote: »

I actually agree with you DD. But I have an appetite for risk and I will be buying every edge of the fallen knife.

Goodluck with all your investment.

BP up 7% today.

Ah well! That's the markets for ya.

displaced dub

its funny this investing game, here is a company giving $20bn as a start to an account for compensation for its fu*k up and scrapping DIVIs and its sp is up 8%.

I dont get it, i really like BP as a company and while i held BP stock i got nice DIVIs. I do want to buy back in at some stage but is that stage now or when the leak is capped??

They have dropped 300pence since the disaster started.

What do you guys think buy now or later?

pirelli

displaced dub wrote: »

its funny this investing game, here is a company giving $20bn as a start to an account for compensation for its fu*k up and scrapping DIVIs and its sp is up 8%.

I dont get it, i really like BP as a company and while i held BP stock i got nice DIVIs. I do want to buy back in at some stage but is that stage now or when the leak is capped??

They have dropped 300pence since the disaster started.

What do you guys think buy now or later?

Depends, whilst BP is up 7% in UK it is down 0.4% in USA ADR.

The US are not seeing this move up in JUNE. They are however buying some Calls in July at strikes. Cautiously I would wait for leak to be completely controlled. However calls are already for a higher SP in JULY even in USA.

Bullish

The premium seems to be on the put side.... the Calls are real cheap.
Someone selling down side protection possibly

enabler

Im a newcomer to the board, hi all, any idea how many shares one should purchase in bp? whats a safe average? cheers

pirelli

enabler wrote: »

Im a newcomer to the board, hi all, any idea how many shares one should purchase in bp? whats a safe average? cheers

20% of your principle sum is the usual average, although Large Cap companies like this might be safe for more.

pocketdooz

pirelli wrote: »

20% of your principle sum is the usual average, although Large Cap companies like this might be safe for more.

Investing 20% or more of your money in one stock, especially one as volatile of this, carries huge risk.

Potentially, the return could be big, but don't rush in. I would be against putting anywhere over 5% of your total portfolio into BP, personally.

.

Dodd

I think I might buy in BP today and hold.

mickman

Dodd wrote: »

I think I might buy in BP today and hold.

hold for what? for the laugh is it?

displaced dub

transfered 3k into my account today and i will be watching BP like a hawk early next week... Divi back on the agenda for last quarter and thats what will drag me back aswell as the medium term upside.

jefar

I've bought them at the end of the day, just above L3,6. Monday only one direction UP UP UP :-)

pirelli

displaced dub wrote: »

transfered 3k into my account today and i will be watching BP like a hawk early next week... Divi back on the agenda for last quarter and thats what will drag me back aswell as the medium term upside.

Moody's cut BP's (BP.L) rating to A2 and said it might downgrade the rating again.

The rating action follows a two-notch downgrade by Standard & Poor's to A on Thursday and a six-notch downgrade by Fitch earlier this week to BBB, which is just two notches above a junk rating

On June 18, oceanographer John Kessler said that the crude gushing from the well contains 40 percent methane, compared with about 5 percent found in typical oil deposits. Methane is a natural gas that could potentially suffocate marine life and create "dead zones" where oxygen is so depleted that nothing lives. "This is the most vigorous methane eruption in modern human history," Kessler said.[72]




The leak is still active. There is a fine of 250 million for every day the leak continues. They can not refine the sludge leftover as it would destroy the refinery, so they will spend millions disposing of it safely. I do see possibilities of burning as fuel but again EPA and pollution laws.


My basic point is the cost of the damage in infinite, or as much as they have and your investing a war that has all but been lost and a vein battle that somehwere BP has assets that will make them a worthwhile investment no matter what.

This might bounce but that's it. Goldman Sachs does also see potential here with a price of $50 but that's a ticking clock.


http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:QU12xJ86ZBAJ:www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/horizon-oil-spill.html+bp+horizon+is+it+still+leaking+jun+18th&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie

pirelli

pocketdooz wrote: »

Investing 20% or more of your money in one stock, especially one as volatile of this, carries huge risk.

Potentially, the return could be big, but don't rush in. I would be against putting anywhere over 5% of your total portfolio into BP, personally.

.

BP is unique in that it's a fukcin disaster, but a large cap like say JPM something solid like that is easily safe to put 20%. 100% obviously is too exposed and 10% unless your stinking rich isn't worth the commissions.

I think 20% is a reasonable amount.

5%... Your obviously loaded Pocketdooz.

ixus

Scientists Warn Gulf Of Mexico Sea Floor Fractured Beyond Repair

A dire report circulating in the Kremlin today that was prepared for Prime Minister Putin by Anatoly Sagalevich of Russia's Shirshov Institute of Oceanology warns that the Gulf of Mexico sea floor has been fractured “beyond all repair” and our World should begin preparing for an ecological disaster “beyond comprehension” unless “extraordinary measures” are undertaken to stop the massive flow of oil into our Planet’s eleventh largest body of water.

Most important to note about Sagalevich’s warning is that he and his fellow scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences are the only human beings to have actually been to the Gulf of Mexico oil leak site after their being called to the disaster scene by British oil giant BP shortly after the April 22nd sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil platform.

BP’s calling on Sagalevich after this catastrophe began is due to his being the holder of the World’s record for the deepest freshwater dive and his expertise with Russia’s two Deep Submergence Vehicles MIR 1 and MIR 2 [photo below] which are able to take their crews to the depth of 6,000 meters (19,685 ft).

According to Sagalevich’s report, the oil leaking into the Gulf of Mexico is not just coming from the 22 inch well bore site being shown on American television, but from at least 18 other sites on the “fractured seafloor” with the largest being nearly 11 kilometers (7 miles) from where the Deepwater Horizon sank and is spewing into these precious waters an estimated 2 million gallons of oil a day.

Interesting to note in this report is Sagalevich stating that he and the other Russian scientists were required by the United States to sign documents forbidding them to report their findings to either the American public or media, and which they had to do in order to legally operate in US territorial waters.

However, Sagalevich says that he and the other scientists gave nearly hourly updates to both US government and BP officials about what they were seeing on the sea floor, including the US Senator from their State of Florida Bill Nelson who after one such briefing stated to the MSNBC news service “Andrea we’re looking into something new right now, that there’s reports of oil that’s seeping up from the seabed… which would indicate, if that’s true, that the well casing itself is actually pierced… underneath the seabed. So, you know, the problems could be just enormous with what we’re facing.”

Though not directly stated in Sagalevich’s report, Russian scientists findings on the true state of the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster are beyond doubt being leaked to his longtime friend, and former US President George W. Bush’s top energy advisor Matthew Simmons, who US media reports state has openly said: “Matthew Simmons is sticking by his story that there's another giant leak in the Gulf of Mexico blowing massive amounts of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. On CNBC's Fast Money, he says he'd be surprised if BP lasted this summer, saying this is disaster is entirely BP's fault.”

As a prominent oil-industry insider, and one of the World's leading experts on peak oil, Simmons further warns that the US has only two options, “let the well run dry (taking 30 years, and probably ruining the Atlantic ocean) or nuking the well.”

Obama’s government, on the other hand, has stated that a nuclear option for ending this catastrophe is not being discussed, but which brings him into conflict with both Russian and American experts advocating such an extreme measure before all is lost, and as we can read as reported by Britain’s Telegraph News Service:

“The former Soviet Union (U.S.S.R.) used nuclear weapons on five separate occasions between 1966 and 1981 to successfully cap blown-out gas and oil surface wells (there was also one attempt that failed), which have been documented in a U.S. Department of Energy report on the U.S.S.R.'s peaceful uses of nuclear explosions.

Russia is now urging the United States to consider doing the same. Komsomoloskaya Pravda, the best-selling Russian daily newspaper, asserts that although based on Soviet experience there's a one-in-five chance a nuke might not seal the well, it's "a gamble the Americans could certainly risk."

Reportedly, the U.S.S.R. developed special nuclear devices explicitly for closing blown-out gas wells, theorizing that the blast from a nuclear detonation would plug any hole within 25 to 50 meters, depending on the device's power. Much as I had idly imagined, massive explosions can be employed to collapse a runaway well on itself, thus plugging, or at least substantially stanching, the flow of oil.

“Seafloor nuclear detonation is starting to sound surprisingly feasible and appropriate," University of Texas at Austin mechanical engineer Michael E. Webber is quoted observing, while Columbia University visiting scholar on nuclear policy and former naval officer Christopher Brownfield wrote in the Daily Beast: "We should have demolished this well with explosives over a month ago. And yet we watch in excruciating suspense while BP fumbles through plan after plan to recover its oil and cover its asset.”

As to the reason for Obama’s government refusing to consider nuking this oil well, Sagalevich states in this report that the American’s “main concern” is not the environmental catastrophe this disaster is causing, but rather what the impact of using a nuclear weapon to stop this leak would have on the continued production of oil from the Gulf of Mexico, and which in an energy starved World’s remains the Planet’s only oil producing region able to increase its production.

On top of the environmental catastrophe currently unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico the situation may about to get even worse as new reports from the US are confirming the grim predictions of Russian scientists regarding the oil dispersement poisons being used by BP which are being swept up into the clouds and falling as toxic rain destroying every living plant it touches, and as we had detailed in our May 23rd report titled “Toxic Oil Spill Rains Warned Could Destroy North America”

To what the final outcome of this catastrophe will be it is not in our knowing other than to state the obvious that the choice facing the American’s today is to either stop this disaster now, by any means, or pay dearly for it later. After all, is cheap petrol really worth the cost of destroying our own Earth? BP surely thinks so, let’s keep hoping Obama doesn’t.

RoadKillTs

Monday only one direction UP UP UP :-)

Of course, shar they couldn't go any lower. :rolleyes:

Speculator

"A dire report circulating in the Kremlin today that was prepared for Prime Minister Putin by Anatoly Sagalevich of Russia's Shirshov Institute of Oceanology warns that the Gulf of Mexico sea floor has been fractured “beyond all repair” and our World should begin preparing for an ecological disaster “beyond comprehension” unless “extraordinary measures” are undertaken to stop the massive flow of oil into our Planet’s eleventh largest body of water."

Time to move all your investments from Oil and into Water by the sounds of things.

pocketdooz

jefar wrote: »

I've bought them at the end of the day, just above L3,6. Monday only one direction UP UP UP :-)

Aren't you the same person that doesn't know what a rights issue is? Or if AIB is planning one or not?

And you're buying 700 shares of this stock?

You must have some cahunas ....

.

pocketdooz

pirelli wrote: »

BP is unique in that it's a fukcin disaster, but a large cap like say JPM something solid like that is easily safe to put 20%. 100% obviously is too exposed and 10% unless your stinking rich isn't worth the commissions.

I think 20% is a reasonable amount.

5%... Your obviously loaded Pocketdooz.

Let me re-phrase that.

"I would be against putting anywhere over 5% of your total portfolio into any stock, personally"

As previously stated on this thread, there's no way in hell I would be buying BP stock.

.

displaced dub

ixus wrote:

Scientists Warn Gulf Of Mexico Sea Floor Fractured Beyond Repair

This is conspiracy theory stuff, I looked into it a bit deeper and the blogger has other way out posts. There is also a story going around that the north Koreans blew up the platform.

It is true that oil is leaking from the ocean floor beside the well. It's a bit right of centre and smacks of enviromentalists!

enabler

Im a sharewatch member, unfortunatly I don't seem to be able to buy shares in uk/us market. Any suggestions please? a novice to this game, but really want to give it a rattle - cheers

mickman

jefar wrote: »

I've bought them at the end of the day, just above L3,6. Monday only one direction UP UP UP :-)

oh dear. seems like your crystal ball was wrong

UpAgainToday

displaced dub wrote: »

I will buy in again in the future but only after the leak is plugged.

I see you make A LOT of cash trading yeah? Your going to buy once everything is all fine and dandy again?

UpAgainToday

enabler wrote: »

Im a newcomer to the board, hi all, any idea how many shares one should purchase in bp? whats a safe average? cheers

Do not learn trading by asking how much should I buy etc - learn from your own mistakes and figure out your own methods and techniques.

Just so you know REAL traders will never tell you what to do since they want all the action to themselves