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Good news on the economy

  • 01-06-2010 11:39am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭


    This post has been deleted.


«134

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,934 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Well first let me say thank you for not making a sarcastic post about this news as too many people in here do.

    It's good to hear this but honestly, untill we see new jobs being created we may as well still be in a recession. However, I think there are signs that unemployment could begin to fall soon.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,531 ✭✭✭Taxipete29


    I think that it is great that the economy as a whole is starting to come back from the brink but I think that a considerable reduction in unemployment will be one of the last pieces of the puzzle and hence quite a long way off


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Scarab80


    Isn't it nice to see that as the domestic economy begins to stabalise, the European economy is deteriorating.

    Out of the frying pan.....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Scarab80


    Indeed, at the moment we are benefitting, however the main concern will revolve around credit and banking once again. Irish 10yrs are creeping back up towards 5% and Euribor rates are also heading up and we've got a lot more debt than we do exports.

    At the moment our borrowing rates are determined more by what Spain do than what we do.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 784 ✭✭✭zootroid


    RichardAnd wrote: »
    Well first let me say thank you for not making a sarcastic post about this news as too many people in here do.

    It's good to hear this but honestly, untill we see new jobs being created we may as well still be in a recession. However, I think there are signs that unemployment could begin to fall soon.

    I don't see unemployment beginning to fall any time soon, certainly not by any meaningful amount anyway. I think even if the economy begins to grow over the next year, unemployment will still not fall.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    This post has been deleted.

    i touched on this yesterday

    dont tell the public sector that they are 5-15% or so poorer than start of year when measured in other major currencies

    god help if they get such a crazy notions like benchmarking ;)

    now i wonder when inflation will return and get out of control, things like petrol already on pushing up with carbon taxes sprinkled on top...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,258 ✭✭✭Tora Bora


    This from today's WSJ! Bottom line is "Ireland has credibility" resulting from fiscal policy in the current spending area.

    The Irish Example

    Dublin is showing other indebted governments how to cut spending


    Spanish two-year government-bond yields climbed five basis points to 2.47% on Monday morning, after Fitch last week cut Spain's triple-A credit rating to double-A-plus. Ireland, on the other hand, has been making do with its diminished Fitch rating of double-A-minus since November. And yet yesterday morning the yield on its 2-year government bond was at 1.77%, down seven basis points from the day before, though its 10-year yields remain elevated.
    Meanwhile, both the OECD and the EU's statistics agency predict that Irish growth—still seen slightly down for this year—will pick up to 3% in 2011, well above their average forecasts for the overall euro zone. What a difference credibility makes.
    On the surface, Ireland is in the same trouble as its euro brethren, if not worse. Its deficit-to-GDP ratio last year hit 14.3%, meaning its apparent ability to pay its bills was even more dubious than Greece's. The small, open economy was hit early and deeply by the financial crisis, and its credit-driven construction bubble popped to reveal a pile of uncovered entitlement promises. Dublin, along with just about every other red-ink-spattered national treasury, responded by making all the right noises about cutting spending.
    So what makes Ireland special? Its political leaders are doing it—and have been since October 2008. The "Celtic Tiger" economy was born out of Ireland's last fiscal crisis in the mid-1980s, another tale of runaway public spending. That eventually spawned supply-side tax cuts to restart private-sector initiative, which allowed for uninterrupted growth from 1994 through 2007.
    But while Dublin had learned the importance of nongovernment enterprise, it couldn't resist indulging itself during the fat years. Government spending rose by 138% in the decade before the crash, against economic growth of 72%, according to Constantin Gurdgiev of Dublin's Trinity College. By September 2008, the national fisc was €46.96 billion in the hole.
    Though Ireland's rags-to-riches-to-rags story is more dramatic than most, this tale of rampant government expansion is essentially the same one that Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece have to tell. Eighteen months ago, all knew that their welfare states had become unsustainable. But, along with the U.S., they devised ever-more lavish Keynesian spending schemes in the name of boosting "aggregate demand," even as they continued to blow up their own balance sheets.
    Ireland wasn't immune and was one of the first European governments to guarantee bank deposits, to the tune of €485 billion, along with a "bad bank" scheme whose price keeps mounting. But Dublin simultaneously told its citizens to get ready for emergency spending cuts and proved it by slicing 10% off government wages in October 2008.
    By April 2009 Ireland had cut public spending by €1.8 billion. It also managed to squeeze additional tax revenue out of its strapped citizens, though it achieved this largely by broadening the tax base, for instance by including minimum-wage earners, rather than targeting hikes only at the wealthy. Crucially, Ireland maintained its 12.5% corporate tax rate. By the end of last year Dublin had implemented spending cuts and tax hikes worth about 5% of GDP.
    Turns out they had barely begun to slash. In July 2009, a special board commissioned by the government presented its report showing €5.3 billion in potential savings for that year alone. The suggestion that made Irish headlines was its recommendation that more than 17,300 public jobs could go, along with its note that the Department of Arts, Sports, and Tourism could be eliminated.
    The government used the report to cut its 2010 budget by €4 billion and is going through its recommendations to find a further €3 billion in cuts for 2011. So far public workers have seen their pay slashed by up to 20%, the state's child benefits have been cut by roughly 10%, and unemployment and other welfare benefits have been similarly gutted.
    Athens, Madrid, Lisbon, Rome and the rest have begun to follow suit, finally having caught on that they can't spend their way back to prosperity. The last year-and-a-half of Irish asceticism is now seen as Europe's Ghost of Frugality Future, and politicians around Europe could do worse than to look at Ireland's cuts as a model.
    But as University College Dublin's Colm McCarthy, the chief architect behind the Irish cuts, told us last week: "Anyone can produce programs [to cut spending]. The issue is, have they taken the measures?"
    Market-watchers remain skeptical that Greece or Italy will make good on their promises, largely thanks to their citizens' outrage at the merest mention of public wage freezes. Meanwhile, the Irish people deserve credit for greeting their government's attempted return to fiscal sanity with, well, sanity. Protesters and strikers have hit the streets of Dublin since the cutting began, but rarely have they shut down entire cities, and violence has been negligible.
    Perhaps the Irish, having seen this before, better realize the dangers of runaway public spending. It hasn't hurt that Ireland's ruling party Fianna Fáil has been in the public-opinion doldrums since the start of the crisis, meaning they've had little to lose—other than their arrears.
    Aside from bond yields that aren't as high as some others in the euro zone, the rewards for Ireland's early frugality have been slow to come. Unemployment remains in the double digits, and citizens know there is more pain to come, even if growth does pick up next year. But as the OECD pointed out in its report last week, the fact that Dublin let pocketbooks shrink along with demand has meant that "the notable improvement in Ireland's price and cost competitiveness could allow growth to pick up more quickly than expected."
    There's no pretending that Ireland's cuts don't hurt in the meantime, or that they would be any easier for Spain, Greece, Italy or Portugal to take on. But as one of Ireland's less austere sons, satirist P.J. O'Rourke, once noted, "You can take 10% off the top of anything." Can, and did.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,967 ✭✭✭✭Zulu


    I've been saying it for a while now; we are in a "pre-boom" period.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,934 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    This post has been deleted.


    Well I suppose that when the rest of the world picks up, people can start emigrating. I guess the old Irish tradition of emigration is back :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Ah here. Surprised people have been taken in by these.

    "Ireland's "extremely strong" exports". Didnt we realise before that these were Pharma led which in turn produce feck all jobs?

    And the 2nd article from KBC bank, its Austin Hughes aka Comical!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭BeeDI


    gurramok wrote: »
    Ah here. Surprised people have been taken in by these.

    "Ireland's "extremely strong" exports". Didnt we realise before that these were Pharma led which in turn produce feck all jobs?

    And the 2nd article from KBC bank, its Austin Hughes aka Comical!!

    FFS, lighten up a bit. We are definitely approaching a new golden era. Give the beards back their hard earned money. Have a heart.
    Standard and Poor are saying good things, the WSJ is saying good things. Biffo is saying good things. Lenny is saying good things. It must be true.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    First instance of job creation in manufacturing since 2007:
    RTÉ Business: Manufacturing sees first jobs rise since 2007

    Unfortunately peak employment rates of 07 will not be seen until 2022!
    Report says Ireland is not Greece in economics; 2007 Irish peak employment levels will not be seen again until 2022

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    Emmmm.....2007 was not a realistic year to compare anything to, let's face it...
    Can we be even vaguely optimistic at these reports, and just say okay, we've made a good start, let's keep going, there's some hope for us???
    Rather than shooting everything down at the first opportunity.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭WalterMitty


    Even if the economy was growing slowly at present at say an annual rate of 1%. That is being fuelled by 20billion a year borrowing by government which is spent in the economy and fuels expenditur eby those receiveing social welfare, working for the government etc. It's illusry growth or an illusory stabalisation. we have to cut many billions more as we cant keep borrowing and cant raise enough tax so there will be a lot more leaving economy over coming years meaning less being pumped into economy by gov. unless private sector can grow as massive rates we are destined for stagnation or decline for years.


  • Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Zulu wrote: »
    I've been saying it for a while now; we are in a "pre-boom" period.

    What's this mean?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    dan_d wrote: »
    Emmmm.....2007 was not a realistic year to compare anything to, let's face it...
    Can we be even vaguely optimistic at these reports, and just say okay, we've made a good start, let's keep going, there's some hope for us???
    Rather than shooting everything down at the first opportunity.

    Indeed, fair point. They were bubble employment figures.

    They are encouraging signs.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    BeeDI wrote: »
    FFS, lighten up a bit. We are definitely approaching a new golden era. Give the beards back their hard earned money. Have a heart.
    Standard and Poor are saying good things, the WSJ is saying good things. Biffo is saying good things. Lenny is saying good things. It must be true.

    i hope this post was sarcastic :)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    Some good news and yet people here are still negative about it. It reinds me of a different era, when times were good and no one thought it would end. It appears the opposite is the case now. It actually looks like people think that economic conditions won't improve.

    That is just as crazy as thinking the boom would last forever.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Some good news and yet people here are still negative about it. It reinds me of a different era, when times were good and no one thought it would end. It appears the opposite is the case now. It actually looks like people think that economic conditions won't improve.

    That is just as crazy as thinking the boom would last forever.

    We look past the spin and actually examine whats going on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 171 ✭✭northwest100


    Even if the economy was growing slowly at present at say an annual rate of 1%. That is being fuelled by 20billion a year borrowing by government which is spent in the economy and fuels expenditur eby those receiveing social welfare, working for the government etc. It's illusry growth or an illusory stabalisation.

    yep, government are continuing to borrow and still no significant cuts where it's required..it won't last for long, but maybe long enough for FF to get another term.

    i'd wonder what percentage of the latest job growth is paid for using the employment subsidy scheme. ;)

    not much mention of that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,258 ✭✭✭Tora Bora


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    i hope this post was sarcastic :)

    Another great insightful luminary, Rossa White of Davy Stockbrokers has positive things to say.

    All together now "We shall overcome, we shall overcome"
    "We shall overcome,we shall overcome some day ....."""

    "There will be peace in the valley ......... ""!:D

    You are here: Home > Davy Research > Morning Equity Briefing

    Market Comment



    Irish manufacturing recovery has reached point where employment is now growing

    Rossa White

    Increasing concerns about the European banking system are hurting the performance of Irish government bonds. Yesterday, the Itraxx CDS for investment-grade financials in Europe almost reached its worst point since May 9th (the trading day before the euro area bailout). Meanwhile, Irish 10-year spreads have reached 225bps above bunds, albeit that bunds have enjoyed a sustained rally. For now the banking jitters are masking the continued improvement in Irish macro data, highlighted yesterday by the return of employment growth in industry.
    The Irish manufacturing PMI index rose by another 0.7 points to 54.1, its highest level since September 2007. Any reading above 50 signals month-on-month growth. The PMI will stay well above 50 in the next three months, because new orders are healthy. New exports orders jumped to 59.2 from 57.4, not far short of the recovery high recorded in March. Crucially, stock levels in manufacturing remain low: finished goods stock declined sharply again month-on-month. At some point, manufacturers will feel confident enough to re-stock. That will provide a further boost to activity. At least there is some hint that they believe in the recovery: manufacturing employment finally returned to growth in May.
    Irish consumer confidence, which is heavily dependent on the interest rate outlook, was resilient in May. It nudged 0.3 points lower last month. But that was still the third-best reading after April and January 2008 in the last 30 months. As fiscal policy is tightened more aggressively across the euro area, the ECB will provide some relief through monetary policy. We do not expect any rate hike until late Q1/early Q2 2011. Irish prices and wages are still falling (raising the real debt burden), so stable base interest rates are a welcome tonic for households.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Irish firms still hurting from recession
    http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2611527
    "Irish businesses are still hurting despite repeated claims that the economy has turned a corner.

    Half of all businesses (51pc) recorded a fall in profitability between January and March this year, with the same number reporting a drop off in turnover. Companies reporting a severe or moderate impact from the downturn remained high at 86, the latest InterTradeIreland's Quarterly Business Monitor Survey shows.

    It revealed that almost half of all companies indicate labour costs remain a key concern for business. The survey of 1,000 businesses both North and South show that companies are still focussing on measures to improve their cost base and ensure competitiveness.

    Businesses are continuing to take action with 53pc of firms reducing prices during the past six months in efforts to stimulate demand for goods and services. However, as turnover levels continued to fall this quarter, companies have yet to reap the rewards of their efforts."

    Irish recovery to be jobless
    http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2611413;s=rollingnews.htm
    "The Island of Ireland economy is emerging from an economic depression, having experienced an 'eye-watering' 10pc decline in economic output since 2008, according to a new report today.

    The recovery will, however, be jobless, according to the Ernst and Young Economic Eye Summer Forecast.

    It forecasts that the Republic of Ireland (ROI) will endure a further 1.0pc contraction in GDP in 2010 (although on a quarterly basis, the economy is predicted to start growing again in the first quarter of 2010), before positive annual growth of 2.8pc in 2011."


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    yesterdays PrimeTime is as gloomy as ever

    http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1074023


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    I think the term this is the end of the beginning not the beginning of the end springs to mind. There are still 400,000+ people out of work and it is going to be years before there are jobs created for them. Never mind all the spending cuts the government have to do in the next 3 years. There is still a deficit of 23 billion..... and of course the elephant in the room, the banks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 784 ✭✭✭zootroid


    Increase in unemployment rate in May

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0602/liveregister.html
    Official figures show that the number of people signing on climbed in May, having fallen back slightly in April.

    CSO figures

    The Central Statistics Office said the seasonally adjusted Live Register figure rose by 6,600 from April to reach 439,100.

    This brought the jobless rate up to 13.7% from 13.4% in April.

    The Live Register figures had shown little change in the early months of the year, leading to suggestions that the rise in unemployment could be stabilising.

    The headline figure, which does not take seasonal factors into account, was up by 5,265 to 437,922.

    The number of people on the dole in May was just over 11% higher than a year earlier.

    So any talk of a recovery will be of little comfort to those still signing on


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    13.7% now, hardly recovery there.

    And when some of those on 1yr FAS/Back to Education courses finish up soon, it'll get worse with hardly any jobs for them unless they and the graduates/school leavers emigrate.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,934 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    To be fair, can we really call anything that does not bring down unemployment a recovery at all?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Competitiveness has improved
    to the 2003-2006 levels...

    and people call Gurdiev a "doom-monger"

    2e2313m.png

    spot the time when the real tiger was shot

    alot done, more to do so :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭danbohan


    gurramok wrote: »
    13.7% now, hardly recovery there.

    And when some of those on 1yr FAS/Back to Education courses finish up soon, it'll get worse with hardly any jobs for them unless they and the graduates/school leavers emigrate.


    they are emigrating , yet our goverment denys it , i cant believe how stupid they think we are , maybe we are ,its like when that cow harney says we have 50%+ in private health insurance unlike UK with 11% as it was a good thing!
    there may be a grassroots recovery , but its in the roots not visible to most people certainly not to 500k on dole or emigrating this year


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    danbohan wrote: »
    there may be a grassroots recovery , but its in the roots not visible to most people certainly not to 500k on dole or emigrating this year

    which is what i was trying to say earlier in thread but got my head bitten for saying it

    the export sector and the MNCs might be doing well (with few notable exceptions like Pfizer)
    but considering most of these companies launder money tru Ireland, and the home-grown part of the export sector is small
    rest of country might not see much benefit
    and raising taxes on these companies will only ensure they skip town


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭danbohan


    RichardAnd wrote: »
    To be fair, can we really call anything that does not bring down unemployment a recovery at all?


    something that will bring unemployment down , now that is the question . might never happen, we may very well have unemployment figures in the region of 350000+ for next 10 -15 years , only a complete shake up here in terms social welfare , public sector costs, private sector wages etc would make any progress . will we get that , not a hope , the right wing partys who might want to do something have not the bolls to do it and then you have labour / sinn fein etc ,theirs not a proper job creating brain cell in any of that mob


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    Competitiveness has improved
    to the 2003-2006 levels...

    and people call Gurdiev a "doom-monger"

    2e2313m.png

    spot the time when the real tiger was shot

    alot done, more to do so :p

    And those figures (I understand) include the inflated Public sector, which doesn't compete on international markets. Therefore it is reasonable to assume the private sector has taken the brunt of the hit, to create any sort of visible drop.

    You can prove anything with statistics, especially ones without a context.

    Why don't we have a thread/link dedicated to Dr. Gurdiev. All the gospel he writes seems to be reproduced here anyway, so it would cut down on the amount of linking you have to do ei.sdraob


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    Therefore it is reasonable to assume the private sector has taken the brunt of the hit, to create any sort of visible drop.

    The private sector makes up 5/6th of the workforce so it dominates any index, but the data does not suggest the private sector having taken cuts greater than the public sector.

    Irish competitiveness does not need to return to 90s levels, this lead to 13% GDP growth, such a growth rate is probably not possible now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    And those figures (I understand) include the inflated Public sector, which doesn't compete on international markets. Therefore it is reasonable to assume the private sector has taken the brunt of the hit, to create any sort of visible drop.

    You can prove anything with statistics, especially ones without a context.

    Why don't we have a thread/link dedicated to Dr. Gurdiev. All the gospel he writes seems to be reproduced here anyway, so it would cut down on the amount of linking you have to do ei.sdraob


    at least him and others provides figure and facts and an analysis
    you do nothing but whinge and moan, when whatever is said doesn't match your faith in Fianna Fail "gospel"
    which time and time again has been wrong

    play the ball not the man, aint that one of the forum rules?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    at least him and others provides figure and facts and an analysis

    Yes, but then when you present facts and figures,it is very important the context in which they were arrived at, as well as the data used to derive them is explained. Statistics without the data to back them up are almost meaningless.
    you do nothing but whinge and moan, when whatever is said doesn't match your faith in Fianna Fail "gospel"
    which time and time again has been wrong

    play the ball not the man, aint that one of the forum rules?
    Pot kettle black eh. Its hard to take your own advice sometimes isn't it?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Yes, but then when you present facts and figures,it is very important the context in which they were arrived at, as well as the data used to derive them is explained. Statistics without the data to back them up are almost meaningless.

    if you bother to read the linked articles you would see references to where the data came from

    Pot kettle black eh. Its hard to take your own advice sometimes isn't it?
    a taste of own medicine ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    if you bother to read the linked articles you would see references to where the data came from



    a taste of own medicine ;)

    Yes, and it appears to be for the whole economy. Competitiveness is an international metric, therefore to see how competitive we are it would be interesting to see the figures for Tourism/Manufacturing etc. where competitiveness, in terms of winning work, is very important. Inclusion of sectors of the economy which do not compete internationally, such as the public sector, private healthcare etc only serve to distort the figures for where it is important. A competitiveness index for the different sectors of the economy is far more useful than a general one.

    The only thing this chart tells us is that cost has exceeded cumulative inflation in general, but that cost is falling.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,378 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    ardmacha wrote: »
    The private sector makes up 5/6th of the workforce so it dominates any index, but the data does not suggest the private sector having taken cuts greater than the public sector. .

    What data would that be now because my paycut and that of many i know are not recorded against any data records because we worked for many of the very small companies that make up the bulk of the private sector.

    But actually the data is recorded... its called the increase in the live register and the decrease in paye tax returns.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Some good news and yet people here are still negative about it. It reinds me of a different era, when times were good and no one thought it would end. It appears the opposite is the case now. It actually looks like people think that economic conditions won't improve.

    That is just as crazy as thinking the boom would last forever.

    The CSO figures for employment for just been released for the Q1 2010(Jan-Mar)

    Employment levels still falling from 1.887m to 1.857m. No upturn there yet.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0615/employment.pdf

    And not just construction causing the decrease.
    CSO wrote:
    Employment fell on an annual basis in 9 of the 14 economic sectors


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    gurramok wrote: »
    The CSO figures for employment for just been released for the Q1 2010(Jan-Mar)

    Employment levels still falling from 1.887m to 1.857m. No upturn there yet.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0615/employment.pdf

    And not just construction causing the decrease.

    Suppose it depends on what way you look at it, glass half full or half empty!

    Karl Whelan has a different take on it:
    The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Quarterly National Household Survey for 2010:Q1

    The latest QNHS figures have been released. They show the unemployment rate in the first quarter declining from 13.3% in 2009:Q4 to 12.9% in 2010:Q1. This will lead to a downward revision to the monthly Live Register based standardised unemployment rates, which had previously averaged 13.4%.

    It does appear we are near the bottom of the Unemployment figures. We could well have more small rises but the predictions of 16 or 18% were way out, Thank God. The issue now is job creation!

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭WalterMitty


    K-9 wrote: »
    Suppose it depends on what way you look at it, glass half full or half empty!

    Karl Whelan has a different take on it:
    The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Quarterly National Household Survey for 2010:Q1

    The latest QNHS figures have been released. They show the unemployment rate in the first quarter declining from 13.3% in 2009:Q4 to 12.9% in 2010:Q1. This will lead to a downward revision to the monthly Live Register based standardised unemployment rates, which had previously averaged 13.4%.

    It does appear we are near the bottom of the Unemployment figures. We could well have more small rises but the predictions of 16 or 18% were way out, Thank God. The issue now is job creation!
    What about underemployment, emmigration. Less people in workforce equals less tax to pay for the running of the place and the paying of the debt.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    What about underemployment, emmigration. Less people in workforce equals less tax to pay for the running of the place and the paying of the debt.

    Indeed. To tackle those, the job losses have to reduce or stop, obviously. The rate of increase seems to be falling which given the last 2 years, is good news. It has to stop getting worse before it can get better.

    Irish full-time employment fell by 115,700 in 12 months to Jan/Mar 2010; 112,600 unemployed for longer than 1 year

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Scarab80


    http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0621/economy.html
    'Assuming the euro zone debt issue does not turn into a full-blown crisis, then Ireland should be roaring back up the euro zone GDP growth league table over the next 12 months, led in the main by a strong export performance,' the stockbrokers said.

    Bloxham says it is now expecting the economy - in GDP terms - to grow by 0.5% compared to its previous estimate in March for a contraction of 0.75%. It also predicts growth of 3.5% in 2011 and 4% in 2012.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    Optimistic and always a possibility.
    However there's a saying we use around my workplace - "assume makes an ass out of you and me".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Scarab80


    dan_d wrote: »
    Optimistic and always a possibility.
    However there's a saying we use around my workplace - "assume makes an ass out of you and me".

    Indeed, however if we were to work on the assumption of a collapse in the eurozone we should all be out purchasing tinned goods at the moment.

    In other bizarre news, Athlone is apparently going to be the new hub for Euro-Chinese trade. Sure it's such an obvious choice!

    http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0621/china2.html
    Taoiseach Brian Cowen has confirmed today that he has held talks with potential investors and promoters behind a multi-million euro international project aimed at attracting major Chinese investment to the midlands.


    The project Mr Cowen is trying to bring to Athlone is reported to be a world trade centre type hub for Chinese industry - a project that would be built on a 600-acre site just east of Athlone and with the potential to create up to 10,000 jobs over five years.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Scarab80 wrote: »
    'Assuming the euro zone debt issue does not turn into a full-blown crisis, then Ireland should be roaring back up the euro zone GDP growth league table over the next 12 months, led in the main by a strong export performance,' the stockbrokers said.

    Bloxham says it is now expecting the economy - in GDP terms - to grow by 0.5% compared to its previous estimate in March for a contraction of 0.75%. It also predicts growth of 3.5% in 2011 and 4% in 2012.

    you must be getting desperate to be quoting Bloxham

    lets see

    http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0108/mibusiness.html
    Friday, 8 January 2010 11:26 - Pramit Ghose, managing partner at Bloxham Stockbrokers PREDICTS PROPERTY PRICES TO RISE BY 7-10% THIS YEAR

    hahahahaha :D


    more

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0208/breaking62.htm
    http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2009/12/13/story46162.asp

    i wouldnt trust these cowboys with a cent


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    Scarab80 wrote: »
    Indeed, however if we were to work on the assumption of a collapse in the eurozone we should all be out purchasing tinned goods at the moment.

    In other bizarre news, Athlone is apparently going to be the new hub for Euro-Chinese trade. Sure it's such an obvious choice!

    http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0621/china2.html

    Obviously an obvious place!!!!:D

    Bizarre. No more than we should expect I suppose. Don't suppose they'd consider looking into using any of the vast quantity of empty industrial estates/half built apartment blocks scattered all around the country - including in Athlone - instead??Anyone? No?:rolleyes:


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