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Economic Learnings of Financial Times for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Ireland

  • 24-05-2010 08:13PM
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭


    Just thought people might find it of interest that Ireland is being rated below Kazakhstan... :cool:

    We note that, among other things, the implied ratings suggest Irish sovereign debt should be rated below that of Kazakhstan, while Greece is on a par with Pakistan.

    Standard Chartered’s overall conclusion, though, is that this could be a canny time to buy into Asian debt

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 595 ✭✭✭George Orwell 1982


    And all the while Eamonn Ryan (Minister for Communications) said today that the economy was recovering and Morgan Kelly was wrong...

    God help us.:eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭cson


    To be fair he can't really say Kelly is right as it would be an admission that the Government have royally and completely lost the plot and that really isn't good governance. I'd allow him deny it away all he wants once the collective finger is taken out by the Government about fixing things.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 321 ✭✭dromdrom


    To be honest not incredibly surprising, small population with huge natural resources.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,444 ✭✭✭Absurdum


    what have you got against Kazakhstan?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Absurdum wrote: »
    what have you got against Kazakhstan?

    my problem is with Ireland

    having a major international publication putting an exUSSR state ahead of apparently "developed and smart" state like Ireland (yeh right :P)

    is troubling to say the least


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,444 ✭✭✭Absurdum


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    my problem is with Ireland

    having a major international publication putting an exUSSR state ahead of apparently "developed and smart" state like Ireland (yeh right :P)

    is troubling to say the least

    why? a brief look at their economy shows that it is in a very healthy state, just because a second-rate comic made a fortune poking fun at it doesn't mean we are somehow entitled to be ahead of them in any way


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Absurdum wrote: »
    why? a brief look at their economy shows that it is in a very healthy state, just because a second-rate comic made a fortune poking fun at it doesn't mean we are somehow entitled to be ahead of them in any way

    :rolleyes: Borat jokes aside

    Kazakhstan > gdp per capita: $7,019 HDI: #82
    Ireland > gdp per capita: $51,356 HDI: #5


    you see no problem with the situation that Ireland is in now?

    where a developing country is being considered less risky than Ireland

    :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,444 ✭✭✭Absurdum


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    :rolleyes: Borat jokes aside

    Kazakhstan > gdp per capita: $7,019 HDI: #82
    Ireland > gdp per capita: $51,356 HDI: #5


    you see no problem with the situation that Ireland is in now?

    where a developing country is being considered less risky than Ireland

    :(


    thanks, there's really no need to roll those eyes are put it in bold, GDP or HDI are all well and good but their public debt is low, unemployment is low and falling, and budget defecit is something we would love to have; I think that these figures are more relevant to a potential investor than their "developing" status


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Absurdum wrote: »
    thanks, there's really no need to roll those eyes are put it in bold, GDP or HDI are all well and good but their public debt is low, unemployment is low and falling, and budget defecit is something we would love to have; I think that these figures are more relevant to a potential investor than their "developing" status

    You are missing the point yet again

    this thread is about Ireland not Kazakhstan (See forum subject) or (Vietnam or Guatemala! who have similar ratings for that matter)

    why can't Ireland have (or at least move in direction) of low public debt/unemployment/deficit ?

    If investors decide to shy away from buying our debt and instead go to places like above, then how will this gravy train continue to roll?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    ..and the winner for best thread title on a politics thread in 2010 is........

    TBH given what paper it is and the agenda that its owner has against the Euro I would take anything about sovereign debt written in its pages with a pinch of salt.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,444 ✭✭✭Absurdum


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    this thread is about Ireland not Kazakhstan (See forum subject) or (Vietnam or Guatemala! who have similar ratings for that matter)

    sorry, I thought you mentioned Kazakhstan in the first line of this thread


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    What an ill-thought out thread...


    Firstly, sovereign bond ratings are based on a countries likelihood to pay back it's debt. Therefore using a country's Human Development Index, or is GDP per capita is extremely simplistic and clumsy. Rather, one should be looking at a sovereign nations fiscal state and it's expected fiscal state. Furthermore, if a country has rich natural resources, and lots of them, that could also help. Allow me to help you, in this respect:

    The Karachganak Field, the 14th largest gas field in the World:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karachaganak_field


    The 11th largest proven oil reseves:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves


    Judging by this dataset, they are a country on the rise:

    http://data.worldbank.org/country/kazakhstan


    And one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the World:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt


    Given these were 2009 estimates, and Ireland's worsening position, one can kinda tell why this happened. It's this kind of stuff that rating agencies focus on, rather than the UN Human Development Index. But don't let me ruin your fun.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    why can't Ireland have (or at least move in direction) of low public debt/unemployment/deficit ?

    Ireland is moving in the direction of low public debt/unemployment/deficit.

    Ireland has had the worst recession in the history of developed economies post war. It is a bit shook as a consequence, it will recover, the only issue is whether the medical expenses will prove excessive in the meantime.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    What an ill-thought out thread...


    Firstly, sovereign bond ratings are based on a countries likelihood to pay back it's debt. Therefore using a country's Human Development Index, or is GDP per capita is extremely simplistic and clumsy. Rather, one should be looking at a sovereign nations fiscal state and it's expected fiscal state. Furthermore, if a country has rich natural resources, and lots of them, that could also help. Allow me to help you, in this respect:

    The Karachganak Field, the 14th largest gas field in the World:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karachaganak_field


    The 11th largest proven oil reseves:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves


    Judging by this dataset, they are a country on the rise:

    http://data.worldbank.org/country/kazakhstan


    And one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the World:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt


    Given these were 2009 estimates, and Ireland's worsening position, one can kinda tell why this happened. It's this kind of stuff that rating agencies focus on, rather than the UN Human Development Index. But don't let me ruin your fun.

    Guatemala, Romania, Vietnam and Lebanon also score higher (considered less riskier by this study)....

    I suppose they are all sitting on oil too


    Maybe we should wait for the new puppet european ratings agency to release rosy ratings and have a thread on that


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    Guatemala, Romania, Vietnam and Lebanon also score higher (considered less riskier by this study)....

    I suppose they are all sitting on oil too


    Maybe we should wait for the new puppet european ratings agency to release rosy ratings and have a thread on that

    Kazakhstan was your choice. It was a poor one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭P. Breathnach


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    Guatemala, Romania, Vietnam and Lebanon also score higher (considered less riskier by this study)....

    I suppose they are all sitting on oil too


    Maybe we should wait for the new puppet european ratings agency to release rosy ratings and have a thread on that

    Since Bertie went away there has been licence to spread a message of despair without his giving advice on what the jeremiahs should do.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Kazakhstan was your choice. It was a poor one.

    Actually if you bother to read the article

    you would see that Kazakhstan was the choice of the FT :rolleyes:

    I suppose being a beggar and being ranked riskier than developing countries is not much of a concern
    sure the ECB can just buy our debt from money they conjure out of thin air

    what could possibly go wrong

    Since Bertie went away there has been licence to spread a message of despair without his giving advice on what the jeremiahs should do.

    oh i better shut up now, better go and commit suicide for talking down the recoverah


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    Actually if you bother to read the article

    you would see that Kazakhstan was the choice of the FT :rolleyes:

    Ah, the rolleyes again. Delightful.
    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    I suppose being a beggar and being ranked riskier than developing countries is not much of a concern

    Didn't even imply that. Amusing.
    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    sure the ECB can just buy our debt from money they conjure out of thin air

    what could possibly go wrong

    You're just talking to yourself now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    ei.sdraob wrote: »

    where a developing country is being considered less risky than Ireland

    :(

    But that isn't the reality. Ireland is rated higher than Kazakhstan by all ratings agencies. Actually rated way higher. The people who are putting their careers and credibility on the line rate Ireland way higher.

    2 researchers with an investment bank do not. This is then taken up by a newspaper.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 171 ✭✭northwest100


    Flamed Diving, when Ireland was rated AAA, did the rating agencies believe Ireland had natural resources hidden away somewhere and a low debt to gdp ratio?

    ei.sdraob has a point about the unreliability of rating agencies.
    why are UK and US bonds still rated AAA? ;)

    i know you brought up before about yields on US bonds being low, but is this really an indicator of whether US will pay their debts in future?

    it would be interesting to see how rating agency scales are calculated..do you know?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    OMD wrote: »
    But that isn't the reality. Ireland is rated higher than Kazakhstan by all ratings agencies. Actually rated way higher. The people who are putting their careers and credibility on the line rate Ireland way higher.

    2 researchers with an investment bank do not. This is then taken up by a newspaper.

    A major newspaper, THE newspaper for finance
    how many managers and people with money be reading about this? doesn't exactly paint Ireland or Greece in nice light
    Apparently those agencies putting their "credibility" on the line dont have much of it left, with the whole subprime overrating saga and now the EU slamming them with own agency in the works
    I know maybe the EU should ban newspapers writing negative stories? Mr Putin would be proud ;) How about they setup their own Financial Times now :o

    Ah, the rolleyes again. Delightful.

    You made a whole post without saying anything much at all, very useful
    Just because you dont like what the financial times have written, no need to attack me, i didnt perform the study in question, dont shoot the messenger as they say
    I suppose people should only post threads of good news here, we cant be talking down the economy now can we Mr Lenihan :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    Flamed Diving, when Ireland was rated AAA, did the rating agencies believe Ireland had natural resources hidden away somewhere and a low debt to gdp ratio?

    You missed the point.
    ei.sdraob has a point about the unreliability of rating agencies.
    why are UK and US bonds still rated AAA? ;)

    You missed the point.
    i know you brought up before about yields on US bonds being low, but is this really an indicator of whether US will pay their debts in future?

    Was that me? I don't think it was. I couldn't tell you what their yields are.
    it would be interesting to see how rating agency scales are calculated..do you know?

    Oil + Gas = cha-ching! No, I actually have no idea. I don't know why we bother with them, though.
    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    A major newspaper, THE newspaper for finance
    how many managers and people with money be reading about this? doesn't exactly paint Ireland or Greece in nice light

    Great stuff.
    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    Apparently those agencies putting their "credibility" on the line dont have much of it left, with the whole subprime overrating saga and now the EU slamming them with own agency in the works

    Interesting times.

    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    I know maybe the EU should ban newspapers writing negative stories? Mr Putin would be proud ;) How about they setup their own Financial Times now :o

    Hmm.
    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    You made a whole post without saying anything much at all, very useful
    Just because you dont like what the financial times have written, no need to attack me, i didnt perform the study in question, dont shoot the messenger as they say

    I never said I didn't like it. What I didn't like was your clumsy attempt at handling it.
    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    I suppose people should only post threads of good news here, we cant be talking down the economy now can we Mr Lenihan :P

    *Looks up* Oh yes, this is the politics forum I suppose...

    Well... you just... like <insert politician here>... gah, I just can't lower myself to this. Sorry.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭saywhatyousee


    anything a english newspaper says about ireland i would take with a pinch of salt.after iceland collapsed every major english newspaper said it was only a matter of weeks before ireland did the same.the only reason why the FT write these articles is to make a few pound for there speculator friends and to deflect attention from there not so rosey situation and make themselves feel better. just like the irish newspapers did about the greece situation


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