Absolute Dead Certs

Mute

Ive just had a very successful period of betting on what I consider dead certs.
So being the magnanomous guy I am, I am willing to share my experience with all you tortured punters.

Since the 1st of January 2010 I identified some dead certs and I have not had a losing bet.

In my opinion and in the Bookies opinion these are dead certs so the price is usually very short.

But this is not a thread about value for money or certain bets being over priced, this is about a winning bet!

What benifit is a bet that was good value but still lost!

Over the next few months I will advise you of these "Dead Certs"(DC)

Please beware of other posters that will hijack this thread to give their "Dead Certs"

Just follow me over the next few months and I will deliver.

The first two (DC) will be advised on Sunday

This should be interesting.

Whats your stakes OP?

Mute

rarnes1 wrote: »

This should be interesting.

Whats your stakes OP?

Starting balance of €500

No such thing as a dead cert regardless of what you think
Thousands have gone before you with this sort of thinking and lost.

You were asked your stakes not your starting balance, do you intend throwing the entire balance on the first selection ?

It might get more attention in challenges/logs?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=1278

L'prof

What are the average odds of the dead certs you've been backing?

x PyRo

This will only end in disaster, There's no such thing as a dead cert in gambling.

Woddle

Dead certs are not my cup of tea although they do tempt me, I'll be interested to see how you do but I would much prefer to find the value. Best of luck.

digme

Sensationalist.......

Mute

RoverJames wrote: »

No such thing as a dead cert regardless of what you think
Thousands have gone before you with this sort of thinking and lost.

You were asked your stakes not your starting balance, do you intend throwing the entire balance on the first selection ?

There are such things as dead certs!

Dying is one!

Of course my balance is my stake.

It was €100 on January the 1st but is now €500.

The returns range from 10/11 to 1/20 but they all win.

Mute

Woddle wrote: »

Dead certs are not my cup of tea although they do tempt me, I'll be interested to see how you do but I would much prefer to find the value. Best of luck.

Im sick of this gamblers old chestnut!

There is no value in any bet if it losses!

Getting on at 5/1 when the true price should be 2/1 is useless if the bet losses!

Bluetonic

Mute wrote: »

It was €100 on January the 1st but is now €500.

The returns range from 10/11 to 1/20 but they all win.

List up your bets.

Mute

Mute wrote: »

Im sick of this gamblers old chestnut!

There is no value in any bet if it losses!

Getting on at 5/1 when the true price should be 2/1 is useless if the bet losses!

Not if you regularly back overpriced selections, 2/1s that are priced at 5/1 win as often ish as 2/1 shots :eek:
If you can't see the logic is looking for value, well there's no point chatting.

Mute

Mute wrote: »

The returns range from 10/11 to 1/20 but they all win.

They have all won to date is what you mean
That €500 will be gone before New Years Eve.

LittleLebowski

I stopped backing dead certs ages ago cause I was let down to much and you fall harder when you think its a dead cert but Ill give it a go although I dont have anything like €500 to maybe throw away.
Ill bet when I can if the odds are half decent.
Share the wealth!
Cheers

ValueSeeker

Paddypower has just offered me 10k to get you signed up!

thebullkf

Mute wrote: »

Im sick of this gamblers old chestnut!

There is no value in any bet if it losses!

Getting on at 5/1 when the true price should be 2/1 is useless if the bet losses!

i agree.... a 1/100 winner is better thana 1000/1 loser..

fair play to ya.....;)

Mute

Bluetonic wrote: »

List up your bets.

Too easy!! I could easily back fill winners to justify my claim!
This is a forward proofing thread that will stand on its merits.

Random

Post a screenshot of your PP account history?

L'prof

Mute wrote: »

Too easy!! I could easily back fill winners to justify my claim!
This is a forward proofing thread that will stand on its merits.

How about you tell us why your selections are absolute dead certs?

Kod-box

give a few examples of past bets, €100 - €500 in 5 months is hardly impressive.

Mute

Random wrote: »

Post a screenshot of your PP account history?

PP? Dont make me laugh!

Woddle

How do you pick one dead cert over another. In the 5'25 at Ludlow the dead cert was beat, he went of at 8/11. The winner was a 12/1.

Mute

Kod-box wrote: »

give a few examples of past bets, €100 - €500 in 5 months is hardly impressive.

400% profit in 5 months not impressive?

You must work in the banking industry

L'prof

Woddle wrote: »

How do you pick one dead cert over another. In the 5'25 at Ludlow the dead cert was beat, he went of at 8/11. The winner was a 12/1.

I presume he won't be betting on horses though...maybe I'm wrong, but it'd be too hard to back consecutive winners. More likely football, tennis, snooker, darts, the american sports, etc.

Kod-box

when your lumping your whole bank on every bet its not that impressive.

Arsenal 2 -0 up against Wigan, 50/1 on in running on Betfair. Were they not a dead cert ?

x PyRo

Woddle wrote: »

How do you pick one dead cert over another. In the 5'25 at Ludlow the dead cert was beat, he went of at 8/11. The winner was a 12/1.

:pac:

That's not a dead cert. (There's no such thing!) That's an odds on favorite.

Verance

OP, take your 500 euro and quit now. You will never make a long term profit like this.

Mute

Woddle wrote: »

How do you pick one dead cert over another. In the 5'25 at Ludlow the dead cert was beat, he went of at 8/11. The winner was a 12/1.

An 8/11 horse running at Ludlow is not a dead cert.

Most of my dead certs will not be horse racing

Woddle

Woddle wrote: »

How do you pick one dead cert over another. In the 5'25 at Ludlow the dead cert was beat, he went of at 8/11. The winner was a 12/1.

I'm not sure I'd ever have any horse as a dead cert.

Chelsea draw no bet for the cup final @ 1/25 or over 0.5 goals in the cup final @ 1/66 is what I'd call a dead cert.

x PyRo

rarnes1 wrote: »

over 0.5 goals in the cup final @ 1/66 is what I'd call a dead cert.

Put money on the 0-0 now. :pac:

amiable

Mute wrote: »

An 8/11 horse running at Ludlow is not a dead cert.

Most of my dead certs will not be horse racing

Its your money mate so do what u want with it and feck the begrudgers

thebullkf

have to say...lots of bolloxtalk on this thread...people lookin for "proof"....of OP's spend and deriding his claim......


the only deadcert i ever saw was AcMilan vs liverpool......h/t in CL final.

3-0 up.


milan were 1/50........serious dead cert....{considering i'd witnessed the ist haf}


.....

i'm eager to hear the OP's selection for the weekend.

thebullkf

thebullkf wrote: »

have to say...lots of bolloxtalk on this thread...people lookin for "proof"....of OP's spend and deriding his claim......


the only deadcert i ever saw was AcMilan vs liverpool......h/t in CL final.

3-0 up.


milan were 1/50........serious dead cert....{considering i'd witnessed the ist haf}


.....

i'm eager to hear the OP's selection for the weekend.

1/50?

I heard they were 1/500?

Mute

amiable wrote: »

Its your money mate so do what u want with it and feck the begrudgers

Look Im totally exposed here.

Followers can bail out at any time.

thebullkf

btw...


i heard Ted Walsh being asked before if he'd bac a ten to one ON shot in a race {i.e. 1/10}

his


reply????




if i have ten......i don't need one.....


straight from the horses mouth.... *cough*;)

thebullkf

rarnes1 wrote: »

1/50?

I heard they were 1/500?

no pool were 500/1 to win.


big difference;)



milan were 1/50 to win.

amiable

Mute wrote: »

Look Im totally exposed here.

Followers can bail out at any time.

I'm not putting you down.... I admire Harry Findlay, he regularly puts tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands on short priced dogs and is a millionaire from it

Mute

thebullkf wrote: »

have to say...lots of bolloxtalk on this thread...people lookin for "proof"....of OP's spend and deriding his claim....

the only deadcert i ever saw was AcMilan vs liverpool......h/t in CL final.

3-0 up.

milan were 1/50........serious dead cert....{considering i'd witnessed the ist haf}


.....



i'm eager to hear the OP's selection for the weekend.

I know after my Sundays DC's you and other people will say "Ah sure thats easy anyone one cud have predicted that"

But thats my point. Its winners not losers or hard luck stories that I will deliver!

myflipflops

Mute wrote: »

Since the 1st of January 2010 I identified some dead certs and I have not had a losing bet.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=65685597#post65685597

This is a losing bet.

Mute

Mute wrote: »

Most of my dead certs will not be horse racing

But some will be, interesting............ (not)

Mute

myflipflops wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=65685597#post65685597

This is a losing bet.

This is not a dead cert bet!

This ended as a hard luck story which this thread is not about!

thebullkf

thebullkf wrote: »

no pool were 500/1 to win.


big difference;)



milan were 1/50 to win.

When Liverpool was 3-0 down, some people offered odds of 359/1 for the Reds to win after 90 minutes, and the draw was backed at 99/1; Milan's price then was 1/100.

http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mess-hall/42127-liverpools-rally-champions-league-brings-profit-bettors.html

Found this. Milan were 1/100 according to this.

Seemed like the greatest dead cert of all time at that moment alright.

This was betfair I take it.

myflipflops

Mute wrote: »

This is not a dead cert bet!

This ended as a hard luck story which this thread is not about!

So you're 500% return on investment just counts bet that are winners? I don't see the logic.

I won't be backing any of them but I genuinely hope every single selection you post here will be a winner. You're first post just reminds me a lot of the OP in the 'Football Tips from the Pro' thread.



Edit: 1000th post, I need a hobby.

heyoheah

so what you gonna be beting on??:D

Mute

Wait until Sunday then its Up

myflipflops

Mute wrote: »

Wait until Sunday then its Up

Bet you say that to all the girls.........

Mute

myflipflops wrote: »

Bet you say that to all the girls.........

lol

myflipflops

myflipflops wrote: »

Bet you say that to all the girls.........

I guess your username says it all for you

mailburner

this is comical :pac:

good luck though
god loves a trier

You might be the special one