What flavour should the next UK government be?

mike65

Hope the mods don't mind a fresh thread for this subject.

So then the Lib Dems have been and continue to be in discussion with Labour and the Tories. The negotiations with the Conservatives have been ongoing for a day and according to various spokesmen the talks have gone well thus far. Talks with labour opened formaly this afternoon and the LDs parlimentary party is being kept up to speed.

With the Lib Dems clearly open to persuasion what form should the next UK government take? My own suspicion is that while apparently counter-intiuitive a Tory led two party administration would make the most sense for the country. The larger party has the most seats and votes and with the LDs to back them (on whatever basis) they will be secure for a reasonable period, a period that will see the UKs fiscal position become clear (its very bad). The
alternative "Coalition of Losers" would need to include all the fringe parties with the obvious potential for hostage taking come a critical vote.

Tories + LD + 8 DUP

---

371
Everybody Except Tories and DUP 329

Peanut

Could the resignation of Gordon Brown be paving the way for a lib/lab coalition?

The numbers are iffy but then again there appears to be significant ideological differences between the conservatives and lib. dems.

From BBC website,

"If Labour and the Lib Dems joined forces, they would still not have an overall majority.

With the support of the Northern Irish SDLP, one Alliance MP, and nationalists from Scotland and Wales they would reach 328, rising to 338 if the DUP, the independent unionist and the new Green MP joined them. "

CoalBucket

I propose Fianna Fail join in a coalition with the Conservatives and piss off over to England and leave us alone

oppenheimer1

Lib/Lab hopefully, but the numbers just don't stack up. There will have to be another GE very soon I think.

bmaxi

I reckon the sticking point for the Conservatives has to be PR or a version of it, it'd be like turkeys voting for Christmas. I was listening to one marbles in the mouth Tory MP saying, "I didn't hear on the doorsteps, people asking for electoral reform". FFS, how petty can you get?
Personally I hope the Lib Dems hold out for PR, how unfair is a system where you can get 23% of the vote and only one fifth the number of seats of a party that got six percentage points more. I think if the Lib Dems go with the Tories it will make them so unpopular, their efforts at electoral reform will be lost for a generation, not to mention the fact it would be unpopular among their own rank and file.
Rock and a hard place for Clegg.

Kiwi_knock

It's a lose-lose situation for the Lib Dems if they go into power with the Tories. They give up their key election promise of electoral reform. They will not get to enact the majority of their policies. The policies that to get enacted are already Tory policies. If the coalition succeeds the Tories will claim the credit as the policies are theirs. If the coalition fails the Lib Dems will take the blame for not curbing the power of the Tories. The Lib Dems should be able to see that a coalition with Labour would suit them better in the long run.

mike65

It was very interesting to hear John Reid (ex NI and Home Secretary) come out strongly against a Lab led coalition. His view was that Labour lost and should be willing to spend a spell in opposition regrouping.

Memnoch

I'd be okay with a Tory-Lib coalition as long as Cameron didn't get to pillage the BBC and there was a referendum on PR.

mike65

I think we will know its a Tory-Lib coalition today.

BluePlanet

I think the LibDem would be crazy to go with the Tories.
It'd be rather like the Greens in bed with FF.
I can imagine defections and the party taking all the flack for unpopular Tory decisions.

bmaxi

mike65 wrote: »

I think we will know its a Tory-Lib coalition today.

What makes you so sure? Certainly both BBC and Sky seem to think it's still up in the air.

mike65

Just a hunch, the promise for AV referendum could do it and apparently the Tories are also moving a bit on the 10 grand income tax cut off.

whatawaster

My gut feeling is that the Lib Dems will side with Labour, and form a minority government with them, knowing that the SNP, PC, SDLP, Alliance, SF (not that they ever attend) will never vote with the conservatives.
I think both parties will also know that soon after a new labour PM is chosen, they will need to return to the people and call an election – because the government won’t be stable enough to carry on for a full term, and the new PM will need a mandate

Lockstep

I'm guessing it'll be a Lib/Lab coalition.

THere's just too many ideological differences between the Tories and LibDems, plus the final offer from the Tories is an AV referendum whereas Labour offer an AV bill and a STV referendum. I know a few LibDem supporters in Britain who would feel much more betrayed by going in with the TOries (the LibDems opponent on most policy issues) than by going in with Labour.

THe SDLP are traditional Labour supporters so all they need is the SNP to get a majority. Plus the remaining parties (apart from the DUP) are all much more likely to vote with Labour than Tory.

irishh_bob

CoalBucket wrote: »

I propose Fianna Fail join in a coalition with the Conservatives and piss off over to England and leave us alone

thier no more compatible than the conservatives and the lib dems

irishh_bob

mike65 wrote: »

It was very interesting to hear John Reid (ex NI and Home Secretary) come out strongly against a Lab led coalition. His view was that Labour lost and should be willing to spend a spell in opposition regrouping.

john reid was ( is ) a blair,ite and despises gordon brown

mike65

Brown had announced his intention to resign by the time Reid said that.

DeVore

Pistachio!!


I think I want lib/lab but I think there should be lib/con, its what the people wanted.

DeV.

whatawaster

DeVore wrote: »

Pistachio!!


I think I want lib/lab but I think there should be lib/con, its what the people wanted.

DeV.

I don't think anyone who voted liberal wanted a conservative coalition, whereas many of them would have realised a labour coalition was their only path to government.

Similarly, i doubt many conservatives envisaged a liberal-conservative coalition when they voted.

It can be spun anyway the parties want it to be honest. Labour/Libs could come out and say they represent the will of more than 50% of voters.

MaryDub

lookin like Con/lib dem - would worry a little about both parties obvious ideoloigical differences.

Will wait and see.

LordSutch

At this moment in time it looks like it could be a Lib-Lab pact? but without the other smaller parties being involved (SDLP/SNP/DUP/PC/etc), which would lead to a minority government, butg still with a larger majority than a Lib - Con pact! of course this could all change by tea time today.

Marshy

Tbh I don't see any non-Tory led government as a real option. A Liquorice allsorts coalition wouldn't be viable imo, even a minority Lib-Lab.

Yet, I don't think the promise of a referendum on Alternative Vote is acceptable for the LDs. I think they're best off letting the Tories go it alone, perhaps with a confidence and supply arrangement.

JimiTime

I hope it goes to another GE, with a new Labour leader. Hopefully with the unpopular Gordon Brown gone, voters will then return to Labour. I sincerely hope its not Tory government. An elitist despisible bunch IMO.

ejmaztec

Whichever coalition ends up running the UK will have to wield a huge axe to tackle the deficit, and the general population will start to hate with a vengeance, all of the parties responsible. After the next election, the coalition members won't get another taste of power for about 30 years.

On this basis alone, I think a Con/Lib-Dem coalition would be a good idea.

Manach

The Con/Lib. would seem to offer the greater standibilty for the UK. AFAIK it is a pity that no cabinet seats are on offer to the Libs, as Vince Cable seems to have some sense of economics.

mike65

Its all happening, Tories and LDs are back in conference. I'd say we'll know by teatime

JimiTime

Manach wrote: »

The Con/Lib. would seem to offer the greater standibilty for the UK. AFAIK it is a pity that no cabinet seats are on offer to the Libs, as Vince Cable seems to have some sense of economics.

Really? So if they go into coalition, the Libs will get no ministers?

mike65

Sounds like the deal is done.

ongarite

Looks like the deal is done.
Bags are being packed in No.10 for chance of PM.

LordSutch

Yep, looks like the Labour Party have blown it big time (Ed Balls & others) seem to have been too heavy handed in negotiations with the Lib Dems > Now over to Conservative HQ, then possibly Mr Cameron will be driven down the mall to Buckingham Palace to have a chat with Her Maj QE2

mike65

The black sacks are being flung into the boot outside Number 10.

Labour really are quite inept. Too much hurt pride I think.

ejmaztec

Dave and Nick will be fighting over which of them gets the top bunk.

OS119

JimiTime wrote: »

Really? So if they go into coalition, the Libs will get no ministers?

the tory's are offering cabinet posts - well, they were on sunday night before they found out that Clegg had been rather less than entirely honest about his contacts with Labour - the gossip at westminster was Clegg as Home Secretary, Daws as Education Sec and Cable as Cheif Sec to the Treasury, with other LD's spread as junior ministers through Health, Employment, Social Security etc...

ie: the 'joint' posts go to areas of policy where the Cons and LibDems agree, and the other stuff, Defence, Foreign affairs, stay with the Tory's to minimise friction.

thats the offer, though both sides know wider the LD party may not swing for that, so there's a Plan 'A' with full coalition, and a Plan 'B' with policy input and voting support.

LordSutch

Dave Cam & Sam Cam to move into No 10

Inquitus

Camelot wrote: »

Yep, looks like the Labour Party have blown it big time (Ed Balls & others) seem to have been too heavy handed in negotiations with the Lib Dems > Now over to Conservative HQ, then possibly Mr Cameron will be driven down the mall to Buckingham Palace to have a chat with Her Maj QE2

The labour party at large realised that clinging to power like this with a Rainbow coalition was not acceptable to the UK Public. Many MPs spoke up about how they would not vote for AV without a referendum, that they lost the election and thought the carryon was desperate and undemocratic.

Labour led by the spin of Mandleson and Campbell tried to desperately cling to power via a stitch up with Libs SDLP SNP etc, they did this without consulting major factions of their own party, offered things they couldn't deliver like a passed AV vote, and now its all fallen apart and leaves them in an incredibly poor light.

ejmaztec

Inquitus wrote: »

The labour party at large realised that clinging to power like this with a Rainbow coalition was not acceptable to the UK Public. Many MPs spoke up about how they would not vote for AV without a referendum, that they lost the election and thought the carryon was desperate and undemocratic.

Labour led by the spin of Mandleson and Campbell tried to desperately cling to power via a stitch up with Libs SDLP SNP etc, they did this without consulting major factions of their own party, offered things they couldn't deliver like a passed AV vote, and now its all fallen apart and leaves them in an incredibly poor light.

They'd be in a poor light whatever they did at this stage. At least they'll have time to reflect, lick their wounds, and get some pop-corn in while they antagonise the opposition in the lead-up to the next election.

toomevara

I'd predict all this will be largely irrelevant. We'll be going to the polls again within a year. I just cannot see the Liberal left and the Conservative right being able to do business for any sustained period of time. Many of the Lib-Dem grass roots are exceptionally unhappy with the conservative coalition. I voted tactically for the Lib-Dems this time round expressly to keep the tories out of power, as did many other labour voters in my constituency. I'll not be voting for them again.

I reckon, long term, the LD's will come to rue this deal, as they'll be associated with the inevitable and swingeing public sector cuts/tax increases that are about to come. Hopefully labour can get on the opposition benches, rediscover it's socialist soul and get back in next time round. Hope we get someone like Alan Johnson in, in place of Brown, someone who can renew the party and bring it back to its roots...

DeVore

If you didnt want the Tories, you should have voted Labour. How that isn't obvious mate, I dunno

DeV.

DeVore

By the way... if I was Labour I would be tiptoeing away from power, whistling....

DeV.

steelcityblues

Looks like plenty of people got fooled by the nonsense Clegg was spoutin during those debates! You could have voted for smaller parties, or just not voted at all!

DeVore

well its all going to change now.... welcome to the new political reality in the UK once they agree to go to AV.


DeV.

Blisterman

Seems like the best way it could have gone.

I think England needs the Tories, now. They're not afraid to wield the axe. And hopefully the Lib Dems on board will bring electoral reform, and keep them in check.

mike65

re AV votiong

Only if the pulbic vote it through.

amacachi

I've no respect for Nick Clegg.

Blisterman

I have more respect for him.
We'll find out the specifics tomorrow, but apparently he's a tough negotiator. Wasn't afraid to walk away from Labour, when they wouldn't make the concessions he wanted.

It'll be good to have him around to keep the Tories in check.

steelcityblues

BREAKING NEWS: Lib Dems accept cabinet deal!

toomevara

toomevara wrote: »

. Hope we get someone like Alan Johnson in, in place of Brown, someone who can renew the party and bring it back to its roots...

Alas, Alan Johnson has announced he won't be contesting the leadership. He's backing one of the freres Miliband...David I believe...Pity, would have been an excellent Labour leader in my view. Not sure if the unashamedly Blairite Miliband will have quite the same unifying effect.

OS119

amacachi wrote: »

I've no respect for Nick Clegg.

why?

Cleggs language and policies have always been closer to the socially liberal/One Nation wing of the Tories than they have to the 'Statist' wing of the Labour Party.

a good proportion of the LibDem manifesto - education, civil liberties, scope of government, deficit reduction, and a good portion of Environment could have been written by half the Conservative Shadow Cabinet.

if you neither listened to anything that Clegg said on Policy, or indeed actually read anything that the LibDems wrote on Policy, but voted for them or supported them anyway, then there's only one person here with a 'respect' problem...