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Marathon WR Progression - Predictions

  • 08-05-2010 11:54am
    #1
    ecoli
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,762 ✭✭✭✭


    In the 102 years since the first WR was set in a time of 2.55.18 the record has dropped just under 52 mins to the current 2.03.59

    Here are the progressions:
    Haile Gebrselassie 2.03.59 28-09-2008 Berlin
    Haile Gebrselassie 2.04.26 30-09-2007 Berlin
    Paul Tergat 2.04.55 28-09-2003 Berlin *This became the first ratified world record by the IAAF for the men\'s marathon*
    Khalid Khannouchi 2.05.38 14-04-2002 London
    Khalid Khannouchi 2.05.42 24-10-1999 Chicago
    Ronaldo da Costa 2.06.05 20-09-1998 Berlin
    Belayneh Densimo 2.06.50 17-04-1988 Rotterdam
    Carlos Lopes 2.07.12 20-04-1985 Rotterdam
    Steve Jones 2.08.05 21-10-1984 Chicago
    Rob De Castella 2.08.18 06-12-1981 Fukuoka
    Derek Clayton 2.08.33.6 03-05-1969 Antwerp
    Derek Clayton 2.09.36.4 03-12-1967 Fukuoka
    Morio Shigematsu 2.12.00 12-06-1965 Chiswick
    Abebe Bikila 2.12.11.2 21-10-1964 Tokyo
    Basil Heatley 2.13.55 13-06-1964 Chiswick
    Leonard Edelen 2.14.28 15-06-1963 Chiswick
    Toru Terasawa 2.15.15.8 17-02-1963 Beppu
    Abebe Bikila 2.15.16.2 10-09-1960 Rome
    Sergey Popov 2.15.17.0 24-08-1958 Stockholm
    Jim Peters 2.17.39.4 26-06-1954 Chiswick
    Jim Peters 2.18.34.8 04-10-1953 Turku
    Jim Peters 2.18.40.4 13-06-1953 Chiswick
    Jim Peters 2.20.42.2 14-06-1952 Chiswick
    Yun Bok Suh 2.25.39 19-04-1947 Boston
    Kitei Son 2.26.42 03-11-1935 Tokyo
    Yasuo Ikenaka 2.26.44.0 03-04-1935 Tokyo
    Fusashige Suzuki 2.27.49.0 31-03-1935 Tokyo
    Albert Michelsen 2.29.01.8 12-10-1925 Port Chester
    Johan "Hannes" Kolehmainen 2.32.35.8 22-08-1920 Antwerp
    Alexis Ahigen 2.36.06.6 31-05-1913 London
    Harry Green 2.38.16.2 12-05-1913 London
    Thure Johansson 2.40.34.2 31-08-1909 Stockholm
    Henry Barrett 2.42.31.0 26-05-1909 London
    Albert Raines 2.46.04.6 08-05-1909 New York
    James Clark 2.46.52.8 12-02-1909 New York
    Robert Fowler 2.52.45.4 01-01-1909 Yonkers
    John Hayes 2.55.18.4 24-07-1908 London

    Given the slow down in the past 50 years of the amounts by which the records have been broken what do people think the WR will be in the next 50 years? Is the 2hr barrier a realistic target?


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