UK Election: Tory Momentum begins to show in betting markets

Inquitus

Its been an extraordinary afternoon on the exchanges with regard to the UK election result. A dramatic swing in the markets shows massive money moving to a Tory majority.

Best betting:



Betfair:



and a big movement to Tory majority as odds on at all the major bookies.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority

Its very rare you see the markets shift this quickly, within a few hours. I tend to view the betting market odds as by far the most accurate prediction of what the futures holds available to us.

Sunday paper poll data as follows, must have influenced this opinion.

YouGov - Sunday Times
May 1 Apr 30
CONSERVATIVES 35% 34%
LIB DEMS 28% 28%
LABOUR 27% 28%

ComRes - Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday
May 1 Apr 28
CONSERVATIVES 38% 36%
LIB DEMS 25% 26%
LABOUR 28% 29%

ICM Sunday Telegraph
Apr 30 Apr 25
CONSERVATIVES 36% 33%
LIB DEMS 27% 30%
LABOUR 29% 28%

Angus Reid - Sunday Express
May 1 Apr 26
CONSERVATIVES 35% 33%
LIB DEMS 29% 30%
LABOUR 23% 23%

mike65

Saw that, but then St Nic was about 2/1 to win the 1000 Guineas and look where that money went.

Inquitus

mike65 wrote: »

Saw that, but then St Nic was about 2/1 to win the 1000 Guineas and look where that money went.

Indeed, but then its unlikely the unknown and unheralded 33/1 French Party "Union for a Popular Movement" is gonna come from nowhere

Manach

This source is then accurate, as bookies as a body are rarely poor.

ejmaztec

I expect Murdoch's been doing a tour of the bookies with a big wad.

northwest100

I expect Murdoch's been doing a tour of the bookies with a big wad.

betting the tories will win?

after the televised debate, it looked like lib dems were in the lead..would there be some market manipulation going on?

A Dub in Glasgo

Any update to the nice graphs which show a longer period? A surge in a graph of an hour is not much

bijapos

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Any update to the nice graphs which show a longer period? A surge in a graph of an hour is not much

Second graph show the trend since the start of Feb. You can also see the big change after the first leaders debate on 15.04.10 and how the money moved in the following week. Saturdays surge can be just about seen at the end of the graph.

The bookies don't judge their prices on polls, they judge it on how much money is being bet on a certain outcome. This is true for every event they offer bets on, be it the Grand National or the reappearance of Elvis.

It wouldn't surprise me if this is organised to gain some publicity. Get 300 people to go to 300 bookies and stick £30-100 on a Conservative majority and you'll get a move on the graph like that.

amacachi

Paddy Power giving 5/6 either way for a Conservative Majority, what do some people know that hasn't shown up in the polls?

bijapos

amacachi wrote: »

Paddy Power giving 5/6 either way for a Conservative Majority, what do some people know that hasn't shown up in the polls?

They don't know anything that hasn't shown up in the polls. The prices reflect the way money is being bet. Its how their system works. Do the maths.

Sorry, no conspiracy theory here.

amacachi

bijapos wrote: »

They don't know anything that hasn't shown up in the polls. The prices reflect the way money is being bet. Its how their system works. Do the maths.

Sorry, no conspiracy theory here.

Could you show me a poll where the Tories are within 50 seats of a majority please?

bijapos

I don't think you understand me. My point is that nobody has any extra info other than the polls.

Paddy Power and the other bookies are merely changing the odds to suit themselves, it reflects how the betting is going, their main objective is to not lose money on Thursday. It has little to do with "inside info" or anything else.

amacachi

bijapos wrote: »

I don't think you understand me. My point is that nobody has any extra info other than the polls.

Paddy Power and the other bookies are merely changing the odds to suit themselves, it reflects how the betting is going, their main objective is to not lose money on Thursday. It has little to do with "inside info" or anything else.

I'm keenly aware of how bookies work, but the same pattern (if not moreso) is being seen on the exchanges, and it's rare that huge amounts of movement in those market happen due to a few people having a punt at the same time, it's usually more organised than that. I was talking about the people putting on money rather than the bookies as the someone knowing something we don't.

BroomBurner

amacachi wrote: »

I'm keenly aware of how bookies work, but the same pattern (if not moreso) is being seen on the exchanges, and it's rare that huge amounts of movement in those market happen due to a few people having a punt at the same time, it's usually more organised than that. I was talking about the people putting on money rather than the bookies as the someone knowing something we don't.

I you want to make a conspiracy out of it, follow the money. Who would have such sums to bet that would push the bookies to believe in a big Tory surge? Who would benefit from the positive press this would result in?

As one pundit said today "beware of words such as 'surge', or 'majority' because you might only be hearing what they want you to hear".

deadhead13

The final Reuters/Iposi MORI marginals poll suggests a 7% swing to the Tories, which could be just enough to give them a small majority.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20100502/tuk-uk-britain-election-fa6b408.html