Bank Runs......!!!!!!!

creeper1

in September? We have the state guarantee ending and the the real possiblility of Ireland exiting the euro and us going back to punts.

Do you have money in the bank? Will you be sleeping soundly in August?:eek:

douglashyde

It's very Greecy affair

Diarmuid

creeper1 wrote: »

the the real possiblility of Ireland exiting the euro and us going back to punts.:

maybe in fantasy land

Nody

Ireland will not be able to leave the euro in September but I'd expect people with relatively high liquidity may be doing transfer out of the system.

Dob74

Nody wrote: »

Ireland will not be able to leave the euro in September but I'd expect people with relatively high liquidity may be doing transfer out of the system.

We cant leave the Euro but we may get thrown out of it, along with the other PIIGS. Or asked to leave potlitely.
Our economy is still in free fall, the Germans are not going to bailout Greece, than Spain, than us.

RealityCheck

Dob74 wrote: »

We cant leave the Euro but we may get thrown out of it, along with the other PIIGS. Or asked to leave potlitely.
Our economy is still in free fall, the Germans are not going to bailout Greece, than Spain, than us.

I reckon that decision would need to be unanimous, would it not? That being the real crux of our euro woes. We cant make decisions without all eurozone members agreeing. Not practical at all.

ninty9er

Why do you think the government is capitalising banks?? For the good of its votes??

The banks are being capitalised in order that they can be clearly seen to be solvent so that when the guarantee expires it will be business as usual as there is no real threat of any Irish bank not being able to fulfil its obligations.

Recent moves by S&P and Moodys have only proven that Ireland is now seen as a stabilising economy, and one stabilising more quickly than Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.

Foreign Sovereign Debt
S&P
Iceland is at BBB-
Greece is at BB+
Portugal is at A-
Italy is at A+
Spain is at AA
Ireland is at AA
UK is at AAA

There are financially safer investments out there, but we're not the worst, nor are we ever likely to be, so no need for the mass hysteria.

That will be all.

ardmacha

Our economy is still in free fall

No it isn't. It is growing.

That will be all.

Oh no it won't. No logical analysis, however well argued, will stop the Jeremiahs posting in here hoping that the IMF will come in.

thebman

I think the guarantee will be extended again TBH.

halkar

I wish I had money in the banks to worry about

ei.sdraob

ninty9er wrote: »

There are financially safer investments out there, but we're not the worst

those are the same rating agencies that gave AAA to subrpime loans :rolleyes: ...

dan_d

Calm. That level of hysteria is very unhelpful and prevents any kind of rational thinking. It's something we buy in to a lot in this country.Stop and think, instead of running around screaming.

Amhran Nua

ninty9er wrote: »

Recent moves by S&P and Moodys have only proven that Ireland is now seen as a stabilising economy

No, they have proven that Ireland is a place where you can invest your money and if the investment goes bad the government will get the taxpayers to foot the bill. Good for giving loans to, hence the credit rating, but a stabilising economy, no.

There are deep, endemic problems with government operations in Ireland that are not sustainable over the mid term, and more loans to pay persistent costs are a band aid over a deep wound. Cuts will have to be implemented ultimately, and the longer we put it off the worse it will be.

dunsandin

My missus told me to go and get the money out of the bank asap, and she knows EVERYTHING. Well, maybe not everything, but a lot. There has been massive capital flight from the Greek banks, but I don't think it will really become a factor here for at least another few daysgood while, if at all.....

Outkast_IRE

If such an event were to happen would a credit union be safer to have savings in ?

dunsandin

I cant really see this happening in all seriousness, most people in ireland at the moment are too busy running away from the banks.

oppenheimer1

creeper1 wrote: »

in September? We have the state guarantee ending and the the real possiblility of Ireland exiting the euro and us going back to punts.

Do you have money in the bank? Will you be sleeping soundly in August?:eek:

Lenihan said the guarantee would be extended and withdrawn on a phased basis.

jmayo

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Lenihan said the guarantee would be extended and withdrawn on a phased basis.

And as we all know your hero lenihan is makes all the right decisions :rolleyes:

Anyone know what is the minimum you need to open a Swiss bank account ?

ei.sdraob

jmayo wrote: »

Anyone know what is the minimum you need to open a Swiss bank account ?

about 5K :P

Flamed Diving

I don't think they will be withdrawing it, all in one go. They will probably start with removing guarantees for subordinated debt.

Amhran Nua

jmayo wrote: »

Anyone know what is the minimum you need to open a Swiss bank account ?

5000 Swiss francs, I heard from a guy down the pub.

DidierMc

What are the benifits of being in the deutschmark err I mean the euro?

ei.sdraob

DidierMc wrote: »

What are the benifits of being in the deutschmark err I mean the euro?

ask the Icelanders

or the UKanians (who lost 30% of their wealth in short period in order for Brown to printy printy)

Flamed Diving

DidierMc wrote: »

What are the benifits of being in the deutschmark err I mean the euro?

Elimination of currency risk with our largest trading partner. Which was one reason why the Punt was pegged to the Sterling for most of it's existence.

That's of course if you are talking about the real world (EU) and not fantasy (Germany).

DidierMc

ei.sdraob wrote: »

ask the Icelanders

or the UKanians (who lost 30% of their wealth in short period in order for Brown to printy printy)

I think we need a bit more inflation in the EU in general and then devalue the currency.

Pete4779

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Elimination of currency risk with our largest trading partner. Which was one reason why the Punt was pegged to the Sterling for most of it's existence.

That's of course if you are talking about the real world (EU) and not fantasy (Germany).

Our largest market for exports, by a huge margin, is the rest of the eurozone. We import around the same from the UK as we do from the rest of the EU. We have already eliminated currency risk with our largest trading partners by being in the euro. Seeing as we export so much more to the eurozone than the UK, that is a good thing.

Flamed Diving

Pete4779 wrote: »

Our largest market for exports, by a huge margin, is the rest of the eurozone. We import around the same from the UK as we do from the rest of the EU. We have already eliminated currency risk with our largest trading partners by being in the euro. Seeing as we export so much more to the eurozone than the UK, that is a good thing.

Nice summary of my point, there.

ei.sdraob

DidierMc wrote: »

I think we need a bit more inflation in the EU in general and then devalue the currency.

why

DidierMc

ei.sdraob wrote: »

why

Printing new money to pay for a public works scheme would create more jobs and wipe out the savings of the rich. It's a win win!

ei.sdraob

DidierMc wrote: »

Printing new money to pay for a public works scheme would create more jobs and wipe out the savings of the rich. It's a win win!

and when the "poor" no longer can afford the basics such as food and fuel because it inflated away faster than their wages (and the savers aint stupid they will move their money to safer locations)

what then?

I hope you invest in a history book :cool:

DidierMc

ei.sdraob wrote: »

and when the "poor" no longer can afford the basics such as food and fuel because it inflated away faster than their wages

what do you call that?

I hope you invest in a history book :cool:

Oh but wages rise to meet inflation while capital loses value. Therefore it pays to work rather than live off capital gains.

Flamed Diving

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I hope you invest in a history book :cool:

Why? To stop all his €1,000,000 notes from blowing away?

:pac:

Flamed Diving

DidierMc wrote: »

Oh but wages rise to meet inflation while capital loses value. Therefore it pays to work rather than live off capital gains.

Could you pick a rate of inflation? Ball park figure.

ei.sdraob

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Why? To stop all his €1,000,000 notes from blowing away?

:pac:

You are right, I see a market developing for wheelbarrows

DidierMc wrote: »

Oh but wages rise to meet inflation while capital loses value.

They do?

DidierMc wrote: »

Therefore it pays to work rather than live off capital gains.

What if I can't work (or want...) and depend on welfare? You shoot me too?

DidierMc

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Could you pick a rate of inflation? Ball park figure.

Well according to the ECB it's 0-2%. But this is designed to protect people with large amounts of capital rather than create jobs.

Flamed Diving

DidierMc wrote: »

Well according to the ECB it's 0-2%. But this is designed to protect people with large amounts of capital rather than create jobs.

It's a range? I never knew that. Could you point me to that figure on their site?

DidierMc

ei.sdraob wrote: »

You are right, I see a market developing for wheelbarrows



They do?




What if I can't work (or want...) and depend on welfare? You shoot me too?

If wages and welfare rise at the same rate as inflation then why would you object to it? (unless you have large amounts of capital of course)

DidierMc

Flamed Diving wrote: »

It's a range? I never knew that. Could you point me to that figure on their site?

You do realise that the whole purpose of the ECB is to keep inflation low so as to protect the capitalists? Even if this meant high unemployment.

Flamed Diving

DidierMc wrote: »

You do realise that the whole purpose of the ECB is to keep inflation low so as to protect the capitalists? Even if this meant high unemployment.

It's a range? I never knew that. Could you point me to that figure on their site?

ei.sdraob

DidierMc wrote: »

If wages and welfare rise at the same rate as inflation then why would you object to it? (unless you have large amounts of capital of course)

Sure why stop there

Keep adding zeros to the notes

we'll be rich I tell ya


If the answer to all our problems is as simple as cranking up the printing presses, then why has this idea never worked out before

DidierMc

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Sure why stop there

Keep adding zeros to the notes

we'll be rich I tell ya


If the answer to all our problems is as simple as cranking up the printing presses, then why has this idea never worked out before

It really depends on the causes of inflation. It is impossible to have low unemployment without inflation.

Flamed Diving

DidierMc wrote: »

It really depends on the causes of inflation. It is impossible to have low unemployment without inflation.

Always statements, never explained.

DidierMc

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Always statements, never explained.

Jesus they even teach the Phillips curve in leaving cert.

Flamed Diving

DidierMc wrote: »

Jesus they even teach the Phillips curve in leaving cert.

Yeah, but they rarely teach people how to correctly apply it.

Hint: The keyword is 'nominal'



Phillips Curve, using GDP deflator. No relationship.


But let's assume there is a relationship. Is it advisable for policy-makers to exploit it?

NO.

Lucas Critique

One important application of the critique is its implication that the historical negative correlation between inflation and unemployment, known as the Phillips Curve, could break down if the monetary authorities attempted to exploit it. Permanently raising inflation in hopes that this would permanently lower unemployment would eventually cause firms' inflation forecasts to rise, altering their employment decisions.

For an especially simple example, note that Fort Knox has never been robbed. However, this does not mean the guards can safely be eliminated, since the incentive not to rob Fort Knox depends on the presence of the guards.
In other words, with the heavy security that exists at the fort today, criminals are unlikely to attempt a robbery because they know they are unlikely to succeed. But a change in security policy, like eliminating the guards for example, would lead criminals to reappraise the costs and benefits of robbing the fort. So just because there are no robberies under the current policy does not mean this should be expected to continue under all possible policies. Likewise, just because high inflation was associated with low unemployment under early-twentieth-century monetary policy does not mean we should expect high inflation to lead to low unemployment under all alternative monetary policy regimes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_critique

Flamed Diving

DidierMc wrote: »

Well according to the ECB it's 0-2%. But this is designed to protect people with large amounts of capital rather than create jobs.

Interesting chart of the HICP from the ECB. This is the measure of inflation that they use when targeting "just under 2%". From 2002-2008 they performed this task rather well, it has to be said, where they maintained inflation with a mean of around 2% and a variance of 0.5%, at a guess. Interestingly, inflation took off to 4%, leading up to the big crash in Sept 2008.

Another interesting point is the period of high inflation that was being brought under control, across Europe from 1992 onwards. I presume this was due to the adoption of the EMU and the agreements made on public spending, etc. The lower period of inflation coincided with a relatively good spell of growth, it must be said.

Of course, other factors are always at play, but it is an interesting graph.

oppenheimer1

jmayo wrote: »

And as we all know your hero lenihan is makes all the right decisions :rolleyes:

Well in this period of uncertainty it is probably best to keep the banks under the safety umbrella of the state. I'm not going to dignify the rest of your pathetic comment with a response.