How is Ireland really doing ?

Drumpot

Last night I was watching the Vincent Brown show just before I tucked myself uncomfortably into my bed . .

On the show they had some economist from TCD (cant remember his name) who kept saying that Ireland was pretty much in the same boat as Greece and that we were next in line to feel the cold winds of economic collapse (or at least he was hinting at it) . . I felt like many people on boards.ie . . Thats it, might aswell start buying up food and water and hide them in my shed for the eventual collapse in our countrys economy, which will lead to civil unrest and mass panic.

Then this morning I read this link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aEv_4Sp6xERU . The respected professor who predicted the US recession doesnt even mention Ireland in terms of sovereign default (always a good sign) which leads me to conclude something I have felt for a longtime now . . We cannot rely on our own "professionals" in economics or business to give us an accurate reflection of how our country is doing overall or perceived outside of the emerald Isle . .Im not saying for one second that because this guy said we wont default , that its the gospel, but it confirms that things may not be as bad as some people would have us believe (that is it may not be the end of the world ).


Its always been a case that one economist will say one thing and another will disagree with it, but it makes it very difficult to get a fair idea on how bad things really are here. . Dont get me wrong, not being in the same bracket as Greece, Iceland, Portugal and Spain doesnt mean things are going well here by any stretch of the imagination . .But, it does suggest that we are some way pushingtowards rectifying our problems (if people are not putting us in the PIIGS bracket) , that the steps being taken (however difficult to accept) are actually doing something positive for the greater good of the country.

This isnt a pro FF thread or saying that we are in anyway out of the woods. . I am trying to find out if its possible to get an accurate account of where ireland really is . . It seems people on boards.ie are only comfortable predicting the end of the world case scenario's but are we really at that stage yet or is it our media hungry economists saying what they think we will listen to, for the sake of ratings ? .

Personally, I believe the only way we can truely know how our country is doing (from an economic recovery perspective) is by looking at a wide range of international journals.

Atlantic Dawn

If you are taking in €3 and spending €5 you are finished and if you offer a deal with your employees to continue spending €5 to keep them happy while taking in €3 you have the economic skills of an fool. The sooner the IMF takes control of the purse the better for us all who choose to be left here.

cson

Ireland is doing shite tbh.

Nothing more than window dressing masquerading as 'savage' cuts.

Nate--IRL--

Drumpot wrote: »

"media hungry economists"

From TCD? As opposed to the "real economists" working for the various vested interests, who have been al over the media for years telling us everything was going to be ok, "a soft landing" & "the fundamentals are sound"? And our politicians who gave us the "cheapest Bailout in the world" with the Bank Guarantee?

So you now accuse somebody who has no vested interest, political or economic, of being media hungry? He just likes being on telly, is that it?

Take your head out of the sand.

Nate

max 73

we're flat lining.......

if we were a private company we would have been wound up long ago, we're broke, we have no clue as to how to get out of the mess....if i was the IMF, i would just shut us down!

ireland rip

Drumpot

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

From TCD? As opposed to the "real economists" working for the various vested interests, who have been al over the media for years telling us everything was going to be ok, "a soft landing" & "the fundamentals are sound"? And our politicians who gave us the "cheapest Bailout in the world" with the Bank Guarantee?

So you now accuse somebody who has no vested interest, political or economic, of being media hungry? He just likes being on telly, is that it?

Take your head out of the sand.

Nate

I love the way people on boards make huge assumptions as to the motivations of every poster . .

I didnt assume he was a media hound, my main point is that we cannot necessarily trust everything we hear from those on tv, even if they are reputable economists . . If you are on tv the odds are you want to be on tv, so even at that, what are the motives for this clean cut professor (that you ASSUME is trustworthy).

I think I would be having my head in the ground if I simply assumed that because he works for a university (funnily enough, so does the economist I refer to in USA . . Wow imagine that, I did manage to pick two balanced views . . :rolleyes:), that he has no vested interest himself . .

As for your comments on the bank guarantee . . Why you talking about this ? Where have I said everything's great and the government are right ?

Seriously, can people read posts before ranting off about things they havent considered and not simply make broad assumptions . . I am looking for a debate on how we can get fair, impartial analysis on the state of our country . . Not waffly "sure we are fecked" or "how dare you question the integrity of a guy from university, surely he is more credible then the guys who got us into this mess" . . Seriously, if you have nothing remotely constructive to add, please dont write (prob wont get any replies now . . ).

Sean Quagmire

I'm no expert but the situation hasnt changed, We will not get ourselves out of this mess by taxing the remaining workers.

A country trying to tax its way out of a recession is like standing in a bucket and pulling urself up by the handles

ntlbell

I think you heard "we're the same as greece.." and then failed to listen to what he had to say.

Nate--IRL--

OK would another recent article where Roubini mentions Ireland suffice? :- http://www.cnbc.com/id/36834215

You are very correct to critically asses everything you hear in the media (any media). The point I was trying to make is that these days it is the non-vested interest guys you want to be listening to.

Academic Economists fit the bill here. The funny thing is that no matter which one you listen too, they all have reached the same conclusions.

Nate

MaceFace

Didn't catch VB last night, but I heard Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev was on it. Foreign accent?
If so, he is one of the few people I listen to and respect. Too many others want to give opinions but this chap relies on figures to back up everything he says.

Anyway, don't expect an honest opinion on boards as anytime someone tends to say anything positive about how things are going, they are shot down with claims of being a FF'er or a PS worker.

The best way to see how we are doing is to look at the bond markets. At least those people are putting their money where their mouths are.

The old Irish saying "It'll be alright" is probably right here imho. Listening to people here, the IMF will be in and the entire PS will have their wages slashed, as opposed to the government who say that everything is okay and we are out of the woods.
The truth is we are somewhere in between where we will probably have a lot more pain for a considerable amount of time, but we will manage and the country will not go down the toilet.

Sandvich

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

If you are taking in €3 and spending €5 you are finished and if you offer a deal with your employees to continue spending €5 to keep them happy while taking in €3 you have the economic skills of an fool. The sooner the IMF takes control of the purse the better for us all who choose to be left here.

How thick are you? And someone thanked your post. The IMF has a disastrous track record, but some people want to exact vengence on those on welfare and the public sector more than they want the economy to recover.

Nate--IRL--

Just curious, but what makes you think the economy can recover to a point that it can sustain current spending?

Nate

Funkfield

skearon wrote: »

you might want to read the influencial Lex column in yesterday's Financial Times regarding the Irish Government and Brian Lenihan - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/aaad9d90-52a0-11df-a192-00144feab49a.html

This was posted in another thread today.......

Flaregon

How to make ireland better in 2 easy steps

1: legalize weed & other drugs (will cut down on drug crime to)
2: legalize brothels

this work make more people take the holidays heres & tax thing that are currently in the untaxable area.

danbohan

Drumpot wrote: »

Last night I was watching the Vincent Brown show just before I tucked myself uncomfortably into my bed . .

On the show they had some economist from TCD (cant remember his name) who kept saying that Ireland was pretty much in the same boat as Greece and that we were next in line to feel the cold winds of economic collapse (or at least he was hinting at it) . . I felt like many people on boards.ie . . Thats it, might aswell start buying up food and water and hide them in my shed for the eventual collapse in our countrys economy, which will lead to civil unrest and mass panic.

Then this morning I read this link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aEv_4Sp6xERU . The respected professor who predicted the US recession doesnt even mention Ireland in terms of sovereign default (always a good sign) which leads me to conclude something I have felt for a longtime now . . We cannot rely on our own "professionals" in economics or business to give us an accurate reflection of how our country is doing overall or perceived outside of the emerald Isle . .Im not saying for one second that because this guy said we wont default , that its the gospel, but it confirms that things may not be as bad as some people would have us believe (that is it may not be the end of the world ).


Its always been a case that one economist will say one thing and another will disagree with it, but it makes it very difficult to get a fair idea on how bad things really are here. . Dont get me wrong, not being in the same bracket as Greece, Iceland, Portugal and Spain doesnt mean things are going well here by any stretch of the imagination . .But, it does suggest that we are some way pushingtowards rectifying our problems (if people are not putting us in the PIIGS bracket) , that the steps being taken (however difficult to accept) are actually doing something positive for the greater good of the country.

This isnt a pro FF thread or saying that we are in anyway out of the woods. . I am trying to find out if its possible to get an accurate account of where ireland really is . . It seems people on boards.ie are only comfortable predicting the end of the world case scenario's but are we really at that stage yet or is it our media hungry economists saying what they think we will listen to, for the sake of ratings ? .

Personally, I believe the only way we can truely know how our country is doing (from an economic recovery perspective) is by looking at a wide range of international journals.

The respected professor who predicted the US recession doesnt even mention Ireland in terms of sovereign default (always a good sign)

or might it be that with a population of 4 million , we are so small and insignificant as an economy that we are not worth talking about ?

dvpower

Flaregon wrote: »

How to make ireland better in 2 easy steps

1: legalize weed & other drugs (will cut down on drug crime to)
2: legalize brothels

this work make more people take the holidays heres & tax thing that are currently in the untaxable area.

Clearly the current laws regarding weed aren't working.:rolleyes:

saywhatyousee

op i think you are correct things are not half as bad as people make it out to be every time i go into town i see no shortage of money around the place ,no people starving on the streets.debt is unavoidable since all money that is printed is DEBT irish people for some reason cant grasp that. they think DEBT were all fooked jump ship now while u can:Dthe way people go on in this forum u think we are living in somalia

cson

saywhatyousee wrote: »

op i think you are correct things are not half as bad as people make it out to be every time i go into town i see no shortage of money around the place ,no people starving on the streets.debt is unavoidable since all money that is printed is DEBT irish people for some reason cant grasp that. they think DEBT were all fooked jump ship now while u can:Dthe way people go on in this forum u think we are living in somalia

People see what they want to see. Eventually the **** will hit the fan for Mr & Mrs €350,000 3 Bed Semi when the roll ups stop.

20Cent

cson wrote: »

People see what they want to see. Eventually the **** will hit the fan for Mr & Mrs €350,000 3 Bed Semi when the roll ups stop.

Roll ups?

Nate--IRL--

20Cent wrote: »

Roll ups?

Interest roll ups. Or he could mean how they'll deal with the stress

Nate

Peanut

The OP is right to try to get a broader opinion of what's happening - sometimes opinions in the affected country will be swayed by political and other motivations that external commentators do not suffer from.

I think what's happening though is simply a large amount of uncertainty which is causing fear. No-one really knows how the economic situation is going to pan out beyond the near future, and the realisation of how rapidly the situation deteriorated in 2008 is still fresh in peoples' minds.

Having said that, I think the EU clearly understands the risk of fallout from a Greek disaster and will prevent the worst-case effects of contagion to Ireland etc. from their debt problems.

cson

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Interest roll ups. Or he could mean how they'll deal with the stress

Nate

T'was the first one Nate. The oul moratorium will have some people headed for the financial mortuary when it ends.

Nate--IRL--

Peanut wrote: »

Having said that, I think the EU clearly understands the risk of fallout from a Greek disaster and will prevent the worst-case effects of contagion to Ireland etc. from their debt problems.

I would like to believe the EU (or really ze Germans) can come to an arrangement quickly. But Greece is having effects on more than just economical issues (one eg http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-instability-threatens-to-topple-merkels-government-1956185.html)

In reality it is the EU/German indecision that has escalated this problem http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,691650,00.html

And even then what is proposed is likely to be insufficient, with up to €100-120bn being touted as being needed over the next few years for Greece alone


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a7a9c604-5297-11df-a192-00144feab49a.html

German MPs claim Greece needs €120bn

By Quentin Peel and Gerrit Wiesmann in Berlin, Kerin Hope in Athens, Mure Dickie in Tokyo, David Oakley in London

Published: April 28 2010 10:26 | Last updated: April 28 2010 16:40

Greece will need financial assistance amounting to between €100bn-€120bn over the next three years, German parliamentarians claimed on Wednesday after meeting Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank.

Thet said that the €45bn currently proposed as a rescue package of loans from the IMF and other members of the eurozone was only enough for the first year of support.

This is far from contained

Nate

Scarab80

I have to agree with the OP that there is a propensity towards pessimism and doom mongering in the irish media and indeed in the irish public. Not saying that things aren't in a horrible state however every bit of good news seems to be overlooked and every bit of bad news or reason to moan gets inflated.

A couple of weeks ago a mushroom farm in Mayo closed where the 100 workers were moved to other areas of the business, on the same day 100 new research jobs were created in Cork. Guess which one got the most coverage.

The country has spent the last week giving out about former ministers receiving pensions while still working costing the state 100's of thousands. In the same period Bank of Ireland have paid the Pension Reserve Fund €560m for the release of warrants, preference share payments and arrangement fees. On top of this our original investment of €3.5bn is worth almost €3.9bn at current market prices.

I know Bank of Ireland is as good as it is going to get in terms of the bank bailout and we've got much bigger problems with Anglo, however i would love to see some reasoned debate in the media which might result in us focusing on our main problem of our massive deficit instead of people comparing everything to the capital amouts invested in our banking system, a large portion of which we are going to get back.

Atlantic Dawn

Sandvich wrote: »

How thick are you? And someone thanked your post. The IMF has a disastrous track record, but some people want to exact vengence on those on welfare and the public sector more than they want the economy to recover.

The current levels of government spending will not get us out of this mess, I think it is you who is thick. The IMF will face the issue and cut spending accordingly.

unit 1

Ah yes living the "American dream"(2 houses 2 cars 2 jobs) in a country whose greatest natural resource is turf.
The difference is we're Irish.


On a more serious note no matter how broke we are a country cannot disappear or be liquidated, so the future is lower living standards, less money, less services (health anyone), more kowtowing to europe, and eventual emergence from stagnation, in about another 8- 10 yrs. Smells like the bloody 80's all over again, except for those with personal debt or negative equity.

ardmacha

Ah yes living the "American dream"(2 houses 2 cars 2 jobs) in a country whose greatest natural resource is turf.

What natural resources do the Swiss have? Alpen mines?

Smells like the bloody 80's all over again, except for those with personal debt or negative equity.

If the 1990s are ahead, then then that is pretty good.

AARRRRGH

Things are not nearly as bad as people are making out.
It wont be long anyway before the government see the light and levy the entire working population 10% on their income. This needs to happen, and it will happen.
Phase one is to have everybody talking doom and gloom and asking for cuts to anyone but themselves.
Phase 2 will be to slap on that levy and say well you were all right, we did need to take more money.

If everyone in the public sector can afford a hefty levy, then we all can.
And BS about higher taxes crippling the economy. An extra 10% will not cripple the economy. And its time everyone paid decent amounts of tax. Letting low to middle income people off with paying very little tax is the biggest problem we have. Time for them to be contributors instead of being subsidised by those on the higher rate.

Drumpot

I would just like somebody with no political ties or axe to grind to just say things how they are, with educated opinions . . Its difficult to know who just speaks the plain truth . .

Yes, we all know what the worst case scenario is potentially the IMF coming in and us owing bucket loads of debt to other countries that will have to be paid by our children. We all know that if things are worse in the banks then we thought, we may end up owing more.

But . .

What is the best case scenario and whats the probable scenario ? The default answer for many is the probable scenario is IMF which I dont believe we are near yet as I believe there will be some agreement with Greece which will stabilize the EU.

Its like the bailing out the banks debate .. I honestly dont know what the best solution is. I know bailing them out was the least palitable one, but there was never significant objective national debate about it The media in this country push their own agenda's so cannot be trusted and the opposition party's only real positive trait (in the public) is that they are not FF!.

Scarab80

Drumpot wrote: »

Its like the bailing out the banks debate .. I honestly dont know what the best solution is. I know bailing them out was the least palitable one, but there was never significant objective national debate about it The media in this country push their own agenda's so cannot be trusted and the opposition party's only real positive trait (in the public) is that they are not FF!.

Couldn't agree with you more. As far as i can see there has not been an objective debate about it on these boards either despite the numerous megabytes of hard drive space filled with opinions about it and despite the fact that this is a medium which lends itself perfectly to a debate such as that.

As far as i can tell the current state of play in the banking bailout is;

BOI - €3.5bn invested from NPR, 542m income received, investment value increased by €373m

AIB - €3.5bn invested from NPR, no income received but 8% coupon due shortly, investment value neutral at the moment but will be determined by performance of company share price once pref shares are converted to ord shares. Possibility of future funding requirements.

Anglo - €4bn invested from borrowings (?), €8.3bn to be drawndown over 10 years and an estimated future funding requirement of €10bn probably to be funded by 10 year promissory note aswell. Investment is most likely worthless and funding should be recognised as current expenditure in the year it is incurred. First €4bn recognised already, €1.8bn to be recognised for the next 10 years (?)

INBS - €100m invested in special investment shares. €2.6bn to be funded by 10 year promissory note. Worthless society so €260m onto current expenditure for the next 10 years and an extra €100m in the current year (?)

EBS - €100m invested in special investment shares. Possibility of €875m to be funded by 10 year promissory note if private sector investment can't be found. No idea of the value of this society but if they are seeking private sector funding i'm sure it would be treated as an investment.

So overall costs to the taxpayer are...

2009 - (Anglo)€4bn = €4bn
2010 - (Anglo)€1.8bn + (INBS)€0.4bn - (BOI)€0.9bn [incl unrealsied gain] = €1.3bn
2011 - 2020 - (Anglo)1.8bn + (INBS)€0.3bn = 2.1bn p.a.

BOI and AIB are funded from the pension reserve, i'm not sure how what the interest repayments are on the Anglo and INBS funding....

NAMA treated as being neutral as anything else would be pure guesswork until further details emerge.

Now can anyone work out what the cost to the taxpayer would be if Anglo and INBS were wound down instead of saved?

RichardAnd

Ireland has plenty of trouble but I don't believe that the country is "in ruins", as I have heard before. When there is mass rioting, no policing, fires gutting cites and all the concomitants of social collapse, then I will believe this country is in ruins.

Some economists will say we're over the worst and things will get better. Others will tell you that we are so far in the s**t that we are beyond help. If I have learned one lesson from life it is that the truth tends to be somewhere in between. So like I said, we have alot of problems but we're far from being a lost cause.

Remember, things can seem worse than they are because we got so used to the "good life" of the Celtic Tiger. My own opinion is that unemployment will settle at about 15-16% and gradually drop as people emigrate.

maninasia

danbohan wrote: »

The respected professor who predicted the US recession doesnt even mention Ireland in terms of sovereign default (always a good sign)

or might it be that with a population of 4 million , we are so small and insignificant as an economy that we are not worth talking about ?

Actually default might not be the worst option. Start with a clean slate. Otherwise the country is going to be paying 20% + on taxes on interest of national debt within a couple of years. Choose your poison.

blue_steel

In the EU alone Italy, Greece, Belgium, France, Germany, Portugal, Malta, Austria and the UK have bigger national debts than Ireland.
At the rate we are going we won't be behind them for long but to my mind cutting left and right during a recession is madness. There is nothing wrong with borrowing for a few years until there is a recovery and then paying it back.
The idea that just because in 2009 and 2010 we were spending more than we were getting in meant we had to cut anything that moved is ridiculous. By cutting public sector pay and increasing taxes we are removing expendable income from the economy, nothing more.

sock puppet

blue_steel wrote: »

In the EU alone Italy, Greece, Belgium, France, Germany, Portugal, Malta, Austria and the UK have bigger national debts than Ireland.
At the rate we are going we won't be behind them for long but to my mind cutting left and right during a recession is madness. There is nothing wrong with borrowing for a few years until there is a recovery and then paying it back.
The idea that just because in 2009 and 2010 we were spending more than we were getting in meant we had to cut anything that moved is ridiculous. By cutting public sector pay and increasing taxes we are removing expendable income from the economy, nothing more.

Ireland has a large structural deficit though, so a recovery won't result in anything close to a balanced budget.

Scarab80

blue_steel wrote: »

In the EU alone Italy, Greece, Belgium, France, Germany, Portugal, Malta, Austria and the UK have bigger national debts than Ireland.
At the rate we are going we won't be behind them for long but to my mind cutting left and right during a recession is madness. There is nothing wrong with borrowing for a few years until there is a recovery and then paying it back.
The idea that just because in 2009 and 2010 we were spending more than we were getting in meant we had to cut anything that moved is ridiculous. By cutting public sector pay and increasing taxes we are removing expendable income from the economy, nothing more.

God, not this argument again.

While we run a budget deficit, every extra penny we spend on public sector wages has a negative impact to the economy due the interest attached to each penny. Even if we were to get our loans interest free spending the money on wages would still have a negative impact to the economy. Generally we don't have an under-utilisation of natural resources in this country so consumer spending will always send money out of the country in buying foreign goods or indeed even in buying irish made goods due to the imported portion of those goods, even it is just the oil cost of transportation.

The only way to get value for money on governement spending is by investing in export companies or by developing our natural resources such as renewable energy in order to reduce our imports of foreign energy.

Borrowing money for consumer spending is idiotic in an open economy with few natural resources. The fact that the unions continue to spout this nonsense shows how little understanding they have of basic economics.

As regards our national debt, i take it that you want to continue to run the biggest current deficit in Europe until we have the biggest national debt in Europe and sure we'll worry about sorting it out then?

blue_steel

Scarab80 wrote: »

God, not this argument again.

While we run a budget deficit, every extra penny we spend on public sector wages has a negative impact to the economy due the interest attached to each penny. Even if we were to get our loans interest free spending the money on wages would still have a negative impact to the economy. Generally we don't have an under-utilisation of natural resources in this country so consumer spending will always send money out of the country in buying foreign goods or indeed even in buying irish made goods due to the imported portion of those goods, even it is just the oil cost of transportation.

The only way to get value for money on governement spending is by investing in export companies or by developing our natural resources such as renewable energy in order to reduce our imports of foreign energy.

Borrowing money for consumer spending is idiotic in an open economy with few natural resources. The fact that the unions continue to spout this nonsense shows how little understanding they have of basic economics.

As regards our national debt, i take it that you want to continue to run the biggest current deficit in Europe until we have the biggest national debt in Europe and sure we'll worry about sorting it out then?

I love the phrase basic economics. It's variably used by self serving robber capitalists like IBEC and the ESRI to justify taking money from workers and giving it to the wealth creators.
Other phrases I love include soft landing and sound principles which were spouted ad nausium by so called economists during the boom. Maybe if we'd listened more to the unions and less to the economists we wouldn't be in this mess. So forgive me if I don't buy into what basic economics tells us.

Amhran Nua

blue_steel wrote: »

At the rate we are going we won't be behind them for long but to my mind cutting left and right during a recession is madness.

If you're spending more than you earn, you cut your outgoings. I don't see how that could be madness.

Dob74

blue_steel wrote: »

In the EU alone Italy, Greece, Belgium, France, Germany, Portugal, Malta, Austria and the UK have bigger national debts than Ireland.
At the rate we are going we won't be behind them for long but to my mind cutting left and right during a recession is madness. There is nothing wrong with borrowing for a few years until there is a recovery and then paying it back.
The idea that just because in 2009 and 2010 we were spending more than we were getting in meant we had to cut anything that moved is ridiculous. By cutting public sector pay and increasing taxes we are removing expendable income from the economy, nothing more.

Excluding NAMA.

I am sure we are going to make a ton of money of nama

Scarab80

blue_steel wrote: »

I love the phrase basic economics. It's variably used by self serving robber capitalists like IBEC and the ESRI to justify taking money from workers and giving it to the wealth creators.
Other phrases I love include soft landing and sound principles which were spouted ad nausium by so called economists during the boom. Maybe if we'd listened more to the unions and less to the economists we wouldn't be in this mess. So forgive me if I don't buy into what basic economics tells us.

There is not a word of reasoned argument in that rant, please explain how borrowing to fuel consumer spending in ireland is a good idea.

blue_steel

Scarab80 wrote: »

There is not a word of reasoned argument in that rant, please explain how borrowing to fuel consumer spending in ireland is a good idea.

Expendable income can be spent in numerous ways. Retail, services, construction, home based tourism. It is common sense that if people have extra money it is better spent keeping plumbers, beauticians, hotel workers and shop assistants in employment than being thrown down the black hole of NAMA. Because make no mistake thats exactly where these savings are going.

RealityCheck

blue_steel wrote: »

Maybe if we'd listened more to the unions and less to the economists we wouldn't be in this mess.

Ah would you give over, I dont remember hearing much from the unions :rolleyes:. Too busy lining their pockets . Mind you many of the economists were aswell.
All the unions want is to spend spend spend, there's no doubt we would be far and away ahead of Greece in the bankruptcy stakes had we given more heed to them, if that was possible :eek:.

Nate--IRL--

blue_steel wrote: »

Expendable income can be spent in numerous ways. Retail, services, construction, home based tourism. It is common sense that if people have extra money it is better spent keeping plumbers, beauticians, hotel workers and shop assistants in employment than being thrown down the black hole of NAMA. Because make no mistake thats exactly where these savings are going.

LOL

Nate

blue_steel

RealityCheck wrote: »

Ah would you give over, I dont remember hearing much from the unions :rolleyes:. Too busy lining their pockets . Mind you many of the economists were aswell.
All the unions want is to spend spend spend, there's no doubt we would be far and away ahead of Greece in the bankruptcy stakes had we given more heed to them, if that was possible :eek:.

I agree the Unions are idiots. But so are IBEC and the ESRI. I'm not saying spend more. I'm saying cut waste not wages.

blue_steel

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

LOL

Nate

B.M.A.

RealityCheck

blue_steel wrote: »

I agree the Unions are idiots. But so are IBEC and the ESRI. I'm not saying spend more. I'm saying cut waste not wages.

Increases in wages over the years without a link to productivity was waste. We are way out of step with european norms, wages have had to be cut. If the unions agree to the pay deal we will see what happens, but I'd be surprised to not see further wage cuts.

blue_steel

Amhran Nua wrote: »

If you're spending more than you earn, you cut your outgoings. I don't see how that could be madness.

Because it turns recession into depression. A country is not a business, its a society. Why not just open a few labour camps and save money that way?

RealityCheck

blue_steel wrote: »

Because it turns recession into depression. A country is not a business, its a society. Why not just open a few labour camps and save money that way?

If we did'nt start cutting back and creating a plan to cut back more when we did we would be in as much mire as Greece, remember its not that long ago when the markets were watching us like hawks. For this reason we have been able to borrow reasonable amounts at reasonable rates. Had we done nothing we would default. Far more damage would have been done to our society as much as our economy, things could have been much much worse. Common sense in needed by all.

ninty9er

I'm politically affiliated, so I'm not going to get in to a political argument, but anyone who didn't go out and try to keep up with the Jones' is far better off than they were 10 years ago.

My dad does the EXACT same job as he did in 1986. He gets paid a salary that has only EVER increased through National Wage Agreements. (i.e his gross salary has not monetarily increased outside of this)

My mother worked in 1986 too, apart from a brief period on maternity leave. Losing their home was a real prospect for them in 1986 yet almost 25 years and 2 remortgages later, the prospect doesn't even figure.

They are not even middle Ireland. Middle Ireland earns twice what my parents do and they have a standard of living MUCH higher than they did almost 25 years ago. They take 2 foreign holidays a year as opposed to a honeymoon in 1984 and no other foreign holiday until 1991 in that period.

This is not the 80s, and people need to get that into their heads. Comparing 2010 to 1985 is trying to compare an orange to a brillo pad.

Scarab80

blue_steel wrote: »

Because it turns recession into depression. A country is not a business, its a society. Why not just open a few labour camps and save money that way?

It might turn recession into depression in a country like America where reduced consumer spending means that they are not using their natural resources to the fullest extent. We are not in that situation.

Indeed a country is not like a business in terms of how it looks after it's neediest and how it decides to redistribute wealth among it's citizens within the country. However from an international perspective a country is exactly like a business. If Greece don't get a European bailout and default on their debts, they will be ejected from the euro and no one will be willing to loan them money or indeed to do business with them. This will result massive inflation of their domestic currency increasing the costs of their imports, most importantly oil pushing ever larger portions of the country into poverty. It's not pretty but it's the reality of what happens if you don't treat your country like a business.

If you think of Ireland as a business, say selling widgets, we were doing very well selling widgets a few years ago (probably with a few fake invoices thrown in) giving the office staff healthy pay increases. Now we aren't selling nearly as many but we are still paying the staff, paying them more than our total turnover indeed. Fortunately the banks are still willing to give us some money to get us back on our feet. Of course the bank want to see us control some costs or they will stop giving us money but we still have some room to play about. We can either hire some sales staff to sell more widgets, invest in some R&D to make better widgets or go with the staff idea which is to give them the money cause they'll probably need to buy some widgets anyways.

Sometimes things are not black and white, sometimes they are. Borrowing to fuel consumer spending in ireland is not a good idea.

As to the money going into the black hole that is NAMA, by which i assume you mean the entire banking bailout, contrary to popular opinion banks are not what we will be paying for for years to come, we will be paying for today's welfare and public sector pay..

2009
Government Deficit Excl. Bank = €24,641m
Bank Bailout = €6,000m

2010
Estimate Deficit Excl. Bank = € 25,261m
Est. Bank Bailout = €1,300m

2011 - 2020
Est. Deficit Excl. Bank = ????
Est. Bank Bailout = €2,100 p.a.

Amhran Nua

blue_steel wrote: »

Because it turns recession into depression. A country is not a business, its a society. Why not just open a few labour camps and save money that way?

Country, business, or person, when you have no more money, the party is over. You're talking about borrowing until things get better - what sector do you see growth coming from in current government policies?

alias141282

Scarab80 wrote: »

Indeed a country is not like a business in terms of how it looks after it's neediest and how it decides to redistribute wealth among it's citizens within the country. However from an international perspective a country is exactly like a business.

Yes and maybe you should read about how this situation was allowed to come about: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2008/1010/1223560345968.html