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How is Ireland really doing ?

  • 29-04-2010 11:17AM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭


    Last night I was watching the Vincent Brown show just before I tucked myself uncomfortably into my bed . .

    On the show they had some economist from TCD (cant remember his name) who kept saying that Ireland was pretty much in the same boat as Greece and that we were next in line to feel the cold winds of economic collapse (or at least he was hinting at it) . . I felt like many people on boards.ie . . Thats it, might aswell start buying up food and water and hide them in my shed for the eventual collapse in our countrys economy, which will lead to civil unrest and mass panic.

    Then this morning I read this link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aEv_4Sp6xERU . The respected professor who predicted the US recession doesnt even mention Ireland in terms of sovereign default (always a good sign) which leads me to conclude something I have felt for a longtime now . . We cannot rely on our own "professionals" in economics or business to give us an accurate reflection of how our country is doing overall or perceived outside of the emerald Isle . .Im not saying for one second that because this guy said we wont default , that its the gospel, but it confirms that things may not be as bad as some people would have us believe (that is it may not be the end of the world ;) ).


    Its always been a case that one economist will say one thing and another will disagree with it, but it makes it very difficult to get a fair idea on how bad things really are here. . Dont get me wrong, not being in the same bracket as Greece, Iceland, Portugal and Spain doesnt mean things are going well here by any stretch of the imagination . .But, it does suggest that we are some way pushingtowards rectifying our problems (if people are not putting us in the PIIGS bracket) , that the steps being taken (however difficult to accept) are actually doing something positive for the greater good of the country.

    This isnt a pro FF thread or saying that we are in anyway out of the woods. . I am trying to find out if its possible to get an accurate account of where ireland really is . . It seems people on boards.ie are only comfortable predicting the end of the world case scenario's but are we really at that stage yet or is it our media hungry economists saying what they think we will listen to, for the sake of ratings ? .

    Personally, I believe the only way we can truely know how our country is doing (from an economic recovery perspective) is by looking at a wide range of international journals.


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,488 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151


    If you are taking in €3 and spending €5 you are finished and if you offer a deal with your employees to continue spending €5 to keep them happy while taking in €3 you have the economic skills of an fool. The sooner the IMF takes control of the purse the better for us all who choose to be left here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭cson


    Ireland is doing shite tbh.

    Nothing more than window dressing masquerading as 'savage' cuts.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,253 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    Drumpot wrote: »
    "media hungry economists"

    From TCD? As opposed to the "real economists" working for the various vested interests, who have been al over the media for years telling us everything was going to be ok, "a soft landing" & "the fundamentals are sound"? And our politicians who gave us the "cheapest Bailout in the world" with the Bank Guarantee?

    So you now accuse somebody who has no vested interest, political or economic, of being media hungry? He just likes being on telly, is that it?

    Take your head out of the sand.

    Nate


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 120 ✭✭max 73


    we're flat lining.......

    if we were a private company we would have been wound up long ago, we're broke, we have no clue as to how to get out of the mess....if i was the IMF, i would just shut us down!

    ireland rip


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    From TCD? As opposed to the "real economists" working for the various vested interests, who have been al over the media for years telling us everything was going to be ok, "a soft landing" & "the fundamentals are sound"? And our politicians who gave us the "cheapest Bailout in the world" with the Bank Guarantee?

    So you now accuse somebody who has no vested interest, political or economic, of being media hungry? He just likes being on telly, is that it?

    Take your head out of the sand.

    Nate

    I love the way people on boards make huge assumptions as to the motivations of every poster . .

    I didnt assume he was a media hound, my main point is that we cannot necessarily trust everything we hear from those on tv, even if they are reputable economists . . If you are on tv the odds are you want to be on tv, so even at that, what are the motives for this clean cut professor (that you ASSUME is trustworthy).

    I think I would be having my head in the ground if I simply assumed that because he works for a university (funnily enough, so does the economist I refer to in USA . . Wow imagine that, I did manage to pick two balanced views . . :rolleyes:), that he has no vested interest himself . .

    As for your comments on the bank guarantee . . Why you talking about this ? Where have I said everything's great and the government are right ?

    Seriously, can people read posts before ranting off about things they havent considered and not simply make broad assumptions . . I am looking for a debate on how we can get fair, impartial analysis on the state of our country . . Not waffly "sure we are fecked" or "how dare you question the integrity of a guy from university, surely he is more credible then the guys who got us into this mess" . . Seriously, if you have nothing remotely constructive to add, please dont write (prob wont get any replies now . . :().


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭Sean Quagmire


    I'm no expert but the situation hasnt changed, We will not get ourselves out of this mess by taxing the remaining workers.

    A country trying to tax its way out of a recession is like standing in a bucket and pulling urself up by the handles


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,287 ✭✭✭✭ntlbell


    I think you heard "we're the same as greece.." and then failed to listen to what he had to say.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,253 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    OK would another recent article where Roubini mentions Ireland suffice? :- http://www.cnbc.com/id/36834215

    You are very correct to critically asses everything you hear in the media (any media). The point I was trying to make is that these days it is the non-vested interest guys you want to be listening to.

    Academic Economists fit the bill here. The funny thing is that no matter which one you listen too, they all have reached the same conclusions.

    Nate


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,647 ✭✭✭MaceFace


    Didn't catch VB last night, but I heard Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev was on it. Foreign accent?
    If so, he is one of the few people I listen to and respect. Too many others want to give opinions but this chap relies on figures to back up everything he says.

    Anyway, don't expect an honest opinion on boards as anytime someone tends to say anything positive about how things are going, they are shot down with claims of being a FF'er or a PS worker.

    The best way to see how we are doing is to look at the bond markets. At least those people are putting their money where their mouths are.

    The old Irish saying "It'll be alright" is probably right here imho. Listening to people here, the IMF will be in and the entire PS will have their wages slashed, as opposed to the government who say that everything is okay and we are out of the woods.
    The truth is we are somewhere in between where we will probably have a lot more pain for a considerable amount of time, but we will manage and the country will not go down the toilet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭Sandvich


    If you are taking in €3 and spending €5 you are finished and if you offer a deal with your employees to continue spending €5 to keep them happy while taking in €3 you have the economic skills of an fool. The sooner the IMF takes control of the purse the better for us all who choose to be left here.

    How thick are you? And someone thanked your post. The IMF has a disastrous track record, but some people want to exact vengence on those on welfare and the public sector more than they want the economy to recover.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,253 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    Just curious, but what makes you think the economy can recover to a point that it can sustain current spending?

    Nate


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,603 ✭✭✭Funkfield


    skearon wrote: »
    you might want to read the influencial Lex column in yesterday's Financial Times regarding the Irish Government and Brian Lenihan - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/aaad9d90-52a0-11df-a192-00144feab49a.html

    This was posted in another thread today.......


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 560 ✭✭✭Flaregon


    How to make ireland better in 2 easy steps

    1: legalize weed & other drugs (will cut down on drug crime to)
    2: legalize brothels

    this work make more people take the holidays heres & tax thing that are currently in the untaxable area.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭danbohan


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Last night I was watching the Vincent Brown show just before I tucked myself uncomfortably into my bed . .

    On the show they had some economist from TCD (cant remember his name) who kept saying that Ireland was pretty much in the same boat as Greece and that we were next in line to feel the cold winds of economic collapse (or at least he was hinting at it) . . I felt like many people on boards.ie . . Thats it, might aswell start buying up food and water and hide them in my shed for the eventual collapse in our countrys economy, which will lead to civil unrest and mass panic.

    Then this morning I read this link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aEv_4Sp6xERU . The respected professor who predicted the US recession doesnt even mention Ireland in terms of sovereign default (always a good sign) which leads me to conclude something I have felt for a longtime now . . We cannot rely on our own "professionals" in economics or business to give us an accurate reflection of how our country is doing overall or perceived outside of the emerald Isle . .Im not saying for one second that because this guy said we wont default , that its the gospel, but it confirms that things may not be as bad as some people would have us believe (that is it may not be the end of the world ;) ).


    Its always been a case that one economist will say one thing and another will disagree with it, but it makes it very difficult to get a fair idea on how bad things really are here. . Dont get me wrong, not being in the same bracket as Greece, Iceland, Portugal and Spain doesnt mean things are going well here by any stretch of the imagination . .But, it does suggest that we are some way pushingtowards rectifying our problems (if people are not putting us in the PIIGS bracket) , that the steps being taken (however difficult to accept) are actually doing something positive for the greater good of the country.

    This isnt a pro FF thread or saying that we are in anyway out of the woods. . I am trying to find out if its possible to get an accurate account of where ireland really is . . It seems people on boards.ie are only comfortable predicting the end of the world case scenario's but are we really at that stage yet or is it our media hungry economists saying what they think we will listen to, for the sake of ratings ? .

    Personally, I believe the only way we can truely know how our country is doing (from an economic recovery perspective) is by looking at a wide range of international journals.
    The respected professor who predicted the US recession doesnt even mention Ireland in terms of sovereign default (always a good sign)

    or might it be that with a population of 4 million , we are so small and insignificant as an economy that we are not worth talking about ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,182 ✭✭✭dvpower


    Flaregon wrote: »
    How to make ireland better in 2 easy steps

    1: legalize weed & other drugs (will cut down on drug crime to)
    2: legalize brothels

    this work make more people take the holidays heres & tax thing that are currently in the untaxable area.

    Clearly the current laws regarding weed aren't working.:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭saywhatyousee


    op i think you are correct things are not half as bad as people make it out to be every time i go into town i see no shortage of money around the place ,no people starving on the streets.debt is unavoidable since all money that is printed is DEBT irish people for some reason cant grasp that. they think DEBT were all fooked jump ship now while u can:Dthe way people go on in this forum u think we are living in somalia


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭cson


    op i think you are correct things are not half as bad as people make it out to be every time i go into town i see no shortage of money around the place ,no people starving on the streets.debt is unavoidable since all money that is printed is DEBT irish people for some reason cant grasp that. they think DEBT were all fooked jump ship now while u can:Dthe way people go on in this forum u think we are living in somalia

    People see what they want to see. Eventually the **** will hit the fan for Mr & Mrs €350,000 3 Bed Semi when the roll ups stop.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,940 ✭✭✭20Cent


    cson wrote: »
    People see what they want to see. Eventually the **** will hit the fan for Mr & Mrs €350,000 3 Bed Semi when the roll ups stop.

    Roll ups?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,253 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    20Cent wrote: »
    Roll ups?

    Interest roll ups. Or he could mean how they'll deal with the stress :)

    Nate


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭Peanut


    The OP is right to try to get a broader opinion of what's happening - sometimes opinions in the affected country will be swayed by political and other motivations that external commentators do not suffer from.

    I think what's happening though is simply a large amount of uncertainty which is causing fear. No-one really knows how the economic situation is going to pan out beyond the near future, and the realisation of how rapidly the situation deteriorated in 2008 is still fresh in peoples' minds.

    Having said that, I think the EU clearly understands the risk of fallout from a Greek disaster and will prevent the worst-case effects of contagion to Ireland etc. from their debt problems.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭cson


    Interest roll ups. Or he could mean how they'll deal with the stress :)

    Nate

    T'was the first one Nate. The oul moratorium will have some people headed for the financial mortuary when it ends.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,253 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    Peanut wrote: »
    Having said that, I think the EU clearly understands the risk of fallout from a Greek disaster and will prevent the worst-case effects of contagion to Ireland etc. from their debt problems.

    I would like to believe the EU (or really ze Germans) can come to an arrangement quickly. But Greece is having effects on more than just economical issues (one eg http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-instability-threatens-to-topple-merkels-government-1956185.html)

    In reality it is the EU/German indecision that has escalated this problem http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,691650,00.html

    And even then what is proposed is likely to be insufficient, with up to €100-120bn being touted as being needed over the next few years for Greece alone


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a7a9c604-5297-11df-a192-00144feab49a.html
    German MPs claim Greece needs €120bn

    By Quentin Peel and Gerrit Wiesmann in Berlin, Kerin Hope in Athens, Mure Dickie in Tokyo, David Oakley in London

    Published: April 28 2010 10:26 | Last updated: April 28 2010 16:40

    Greece will need financial assistance amounting to between €100bn-€120bn over the next three years, German parliamentarians claimed on Wednesday after meeting Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank.

    Thet said that the €45bn currently proposed as a rescue package of loans from the IMF and other members of the eurozone was only enough for the first year of support.

    This is far from contained

    Nate


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 802 ✭✭✭Scarab80


    I have to agree with the OP that there is a propensity towards pessimism and doom mongering in the irish media and indeed in the irish public. Not saying that things aren't in a horrible state however every bit of good news seems to be overlooked and every bit of bad news or reason to moan gets inflated.

    A couple of weeks ago a mushroom farm in Mayo closed where the 100 workers were moved to other areas of the business, on the same day 100 new research jobs were created in Cork. Guess which one got the most coverage.

    The country has spent the last week giving out about former ministers receiving pensions while still working costing the state 100's of thousands. In the same period Bank of Ireland have paid the Pension Reserve Fund €560m for the release of warrants, preference share payments and arrangement fees. On top of this our original investment of €3.5bn is worth almost €3.9bn at current market prices.

    I know Bank of Ireland is as good as it is going to get in terms of the bank bailout and we've got much bigger problems with Anglo, however i would love to see some reasoned debate in the media which might result in us focusing on our main problem of our massive deficit instead of people comparing everything to the capital amouts invested in our banking system, a large portion of which we are going to get back.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,488 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151


    Sandvich wrote: »
    How thick are you? And someone thanked your post. The IMF has a disastrous track record, but some people want to exact vengence on those on welfare and the public sector more than they want the economy to recover.

    The current levels of government spending will not get us out of this mess, I think it is you who is thick. The IMF will face the issue and cut spending accordingly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 549 ✭✭✭unit 1


    Ah yes living the "American dream"(2 houses 2 cars 2 jobs) in a country whose greatest natural resource is turf.
    The difference is we're Irish.


    On a more serious note no matter how broke we are a country cannot disappear or be liquidated, so the future is lower living standards, less money, less services (health anyone), more kowtowing to europe, and eventual emergence from stagnation, in about another 8- 10 yrs. Smells like the bloody 80's all over again, except for those with personal debt or negative equity.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    Ah yes living the "American dream"(2 houses 2 cars 2 jobs) in a country whose greatest natural resource is turf.

    What natural resources do the Swiss have? Alpen mines?
    Smells like the bloody 80's all over again, except for those with personal debt or negative equity.

    If the 1990s are ahead, then then that is pretty good.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 566 ✭✭✭AARRRRGH


    Things are not nearly as bad as people are making out.
    It wont be long anyway before the government see the light and levy the entire working population 10% on their income. This needs to happen, and it will happen.
    Phase one is to have everybody talking doom and gloom and asking for cuts to anyone but themselves.
    Phase 2 will be to slap on that levy and say well you were all right, we did need to take more money.

    If everyone in the public sector can afford a hefty levy, then we all can.
    And BS about higher taxes crippling the economy. An extra 10% will not cripple the economy. And its time everyone paid decent amounts of tax. Letting low to middle income people off with paying very little tax is the biggest problem we have. Time for them to be contributors instead of being subsidised by those on the higher rate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    I would just like somebody with no political ties or axe to grind to just say things how they are, with educated opinions . . Its difficult to know who just speaks the plain truth . .

    Yes, we all know what the worst case scenario is potentially the IMF coming in and us owing bucket loads of debt to other countries that will have to be paid by our children. We all know that if things are worse in the banks then we thought, we may end up owing more.

    But . .

    What is the best case scenario and whats the probable scenario ? The default answer for many is the probable scenario is IMF which I dont believe we are near yet as I believe there will be some agreement with Greece which will stabilize the EU.

    Its like the bailing out the banks debate .. I honestly dont know what the best solution is. I know bailing them out was the least palitable one, but there was never significant objective national debate about it The media in this country push their own agenda's so cannot be trusted and the opposition party's only real positive trait (in the public) is that they are not FF!.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 802 ✭✭✭Scarab80


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Its like the bailing out the banks debate .. I honestly dont know what the best solution is. I know bailing them out was the least palitable one, but there was never significant objective national debate about it The media in this country push their own agenda's so cannot be trusted and the opposition party's only real positive trait (in the public) is that they are not FF!.

    Couldn't agree with you more. As far as i can see there has not been an objective debate about it on these boards either despite the numerous megabytes of hard drive space filled with opinions about it and despite the fact that this is a medium which lends itself perfectly to a debate such as that.

    As far as i can tell the current state of play in the banking bailout is;

    BOI - €3.5bn invested from NPR, 542m income received, investment value increased by €373m

    AIB - €3.5bn invested from NPR, no income received but 8% coupon due shortly, investment value neutral at the moment but will be determined by performance of company share price once pref shares are converted to ord shares. Possibility of future funding requirements.

    Anglo - €4bn invested from borrowings (?), €8.3bn to be drawndown over 10 years and an estimated future funding requirement of €10bn probably to be funded by 10 year promissory note aswell. Investment is most likely worthless and funding should be recognised as current expenditure in the year it is incurred. First €4bn recognised already, €1.8bn to be recognised for the next 10 years (?)

    INBS - €100m invested in special investment shares. €2.6bn to be funded by 10 year promissory note. Worthless society so €260m onto current expenditure for the next 10 years and an extra €100m in the current year (?)

    EBS - €100m invested in special investment shares. Possibility of €875m to be funded by 10 year promissory note if private sector investment can't be found. No idea of the value of this society but if they are seeking private sector funding i'm sure it would be treated as an investment.

    So overall costs to the taxpayer are...

    2009 - (Anglo)€4bn = €4bn
    2010 - (Anglo)€1.8bn + (INBS)€0.4bn - (BOI)€0.9bn [incl unrealsied gain] = €1.3bn
    2011 - 2020 - (Anglo)1.8bn + (INBS)€0.3bn = 2.1bn p.a.

    BOI and AIB are funded from the pension reserve, i'm not sure how what the interest repayments are on the Anglo and INBS funding....

    NAMA treated as being neutral as anything else would be pure guesswork until further details emerge.

    Now can anyone work out what the cost to the taxpayer would be if Anglo and INBS were wound down instead of saved?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Ireland has plenty of trouble but I don't believe that the country is "in ruins", as I have heard before. When there is mass rioting, no policing, fires gutting cites and all the concomitants of social collapse, then I will believe this country is in ruins.

    Some economists will say we're over the worst and things will get better. Others will tell you that we are so far in the s**t that we are beyond help. If I have learned one lesson from life it is that the truth tends to be somewhere in between. So like I said, we have alot of problems but we're far from being a lost cause.

    Remember, things can seem worse than they are because we got so used to the "good life" of the Celtic Tiger. My own opinion is that unemployment will settle at about 15-16% and gradually drop as people emigrate.


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