Ireland & Greece

ei.sdraob

Thought ill start a separate thread since this story is moving fast now

some more doom and gloom analysis and figures from Constantin Gurdgiev in his blog and edited version in the IT

I know the solution for some posters here to all our problems is to "borrow some more", read on please

Greece has spent the last ten years amassing a gargantuan pile of public debt. Ever since 1988, successive Greek governments paid for their domestic investment and spending out of borrowed cash. Just as Ireland, over the last 22 years, Greece has never managed to achieve a single year when its Government structural balance – the long-term measure of public finances sustainability – were in the black.

hmm

Finally, having engaged in a series of cover-ups designed to conceal the true extent of the problem, the Greek economy has reached the point of insolvency. As of today, Greece is borrowing some 13.6% of its domestic output to pay for day-to-day running of the state. The
country debt levels are now in excess of 115%. Despite the promise from Brussels that the EU will stand by Greece, last night Greek bonds were trading at the levels above those of Kenya and Colombia.

hmmm

This news is not good for the Irish taxpayers

Firstly, despite the EU/IMF rescue funds, Greece, and with it the Euro zone, is not out of the woods. The entire package of €45 billion, promised to Greece earlier this month is not enough to alleviate longer term pressures on its Government. Absent a miracle, the country will need at least €80-90 billion in assisted financing in 2010-2012.

The IMF cannot provide more than €15 billion that it already pledged, since IMF funds are restricted by the balances held by Greece with the Fund. The EU is unlikely to underwrite any additional money, as over 70% of German voters are now opposing bailing out Greece in the first instance.

what a pickle

Ireland’s General Government deficit for 2009, as revised this week by the Eurostat, stands at 14.3% - above that of Greece and well above that of Portugal. More worryingly, Eurostat revision opened the door for the 2010 planned banks recapitalizations to be counted as deficit. If this comes to pass, our official deficit will be over 14% of GDP this year, again.

All of this means we can expect the cost of our borrowing to go up dramatically. Given that the Irish Government is engaging in an extreme degree of deficit financing, Irish taxpayers can end up paying billions more annually in additional interest charges. Adding up the total expected deficits between today and 2014, the taxpayers can end up owing an extra €1.14 billion in higher interest payments on our deficits. Adding the increased costs of Nama bonds pushes this figure to over €2.5 billion. Three years worth of income tax levies imposed by the Government in the Supplementary Budget 2009 will go up in smoke.

but we can just leave the euro right :P and go back to punt

the worst case scenario – the collapse of the Eurozone still looms large despite the Greeks request for IMF assistance. In this case, Irish economy is likely to suffer an irreparable damage.
Restoration of the Irish punt would see us either wiping out our exports or burying our private economy under an even greater mountain of debt, depending on which currency valuation path we take. Either way, without having control over our exit from the euro, we will find ourselves between the rock and the hard place

finally will the people who were saying in an earlier thread that giving money to greece is a good investment please stand up :rolleyes:

Third, regardless of whatever happens with Greece in the next few months, Irish taxpayers can kiss goodby the €500 million our Government committed to the EU rescue fund for Greece. Forget the insanity of Ireland borrowing these funds at ca 4.6% to lend to Greece at ‘close to 5%’. With bonds issuance fees, the prospect of rising interest rates and the effect this borrowing has on our deficit, the deal signed by Brian Cowen on March 26th was never expected to break even for the taxpayers. In reality, the likelihood of Greece repaying back this cash is virtually nil.

Unions -- take notice -- more deficit financing risks making Ireland a client of the IMF, because in finance, as in life, what can't go on, usually doesn't

and closing words
Dr must be a boardsie

alias141282

Lovely to read this post on a Sunday morning.

On this point "Just as Ireland, over the last 22 years, Greece has never managed to achieve a single year when its Government structural balance – the long-term measure of public finances sustainability – were in the black."

What exactly does this mean given we had budget surpluses throughout the boom?

dan_d

Honestly????too much doom and gloom for a Sunday morning.Your posts are interesting ei.sdraob, but how you haven't sunk into a depression a long time ago from researching this stuff, I just don't know!!!:p:o

ei.sdraob

alias141282 wrote: »

Lovely to read this post on a Sunday morning.

On this point "Just as Ireland, over the last 22 years, Greece has never managed to achieve a single year when its Government structural balance – the long-term measure of public finances sustainability – were in the black."

What exactly does this mean given we had budget surpluses throughout the boom?

looking at this going back to 2002, there was only one year when we made more than spend, and that was mostly due to once off property receipts

there are figures on budget.gov site going back to 1996 if you want to check further back

apparently Greece where digging a hole for a long time now, i be interested in any charts/data tho

dan_d wrote: »

Honestly????too much doom and gloom for a Sunday morning.Your posts are interesting ei.sdraob, but how you haven't sunk into a depression a long time ago from researching this stuff, I just don't know!!!:p:o

i just find the whole thing so fascinating, the solution for both is simple > borrow less over time and try to create and sell things other countries need,
but its interesting how governments are incapable of ever balancing the books,
then again im looking at it from the point of view of running a business

SkepticOne

ei.sdraob wrote: »

but we can just leave the euro right :P and go back to punt

I don't think he's saying that to be honest. He's talking about the collapse of the Euro itself and forced creation of currencies among former Eurozone members. It is the sort of scenario that would make other European countries glad that they did not join the Euro experiment in the first place.

silverharp

ei.sdraob wrote: »

i just find the whole thing so fascinating, the solution for both is simple > borrow less over time and try to create and sell things other countries need,
but its interesting how governments are incapable of ever balancing the books,
then again im looking at it from the point of view of running a business

fully agree. The nub of the issue is that you as a producer do not need the socialists and statists but they need you. The idea that a politician whose main talent is getting elected should be given powers to borrow is like giving a drunk a job behind the bar.

I'm of the opinion that the unions will never listen, just as the militant PS workers will avoid this thread because they know they're just greedy and wrong.

Our only chance is a strong government which will continue to make the tough decisions of cutting welfare/PS wages and other expenditure until we can balance our books and promote REAL growth. I'm not living in Greece the sequel because you think you should get 30k a year for doing a bit of filing.

RichardAnd

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that the unions will never listen, just as the militant PS workers will avoid this thread because they know they're just greedy and wrong.

Our only chance is a strong government which will continue to make the tough decisions of cutting welfare/PS wages and other expenditure until we can balance our books and promote REAL growth. I'm not living in Greece the sequel because you think you should get 30k a year for doing a bit of filing.

True, we do. But how do you think a government like that will get elected when their mandate will be telling PS workers and the unemployed that they will be getting cut. They won't and that, as some will agree with me, if the folly that is modern democracy.

Labour and FG are spear heading their election campaigns with insane promises like 100k new jobs and free GP visits for everyone. Some people are smart enough to ask the simply question of where the money for that will come from but most won't. People want a government that will feed their sense of entitlement and not their responsibilities.

What's needed is for the president to dissolve the government and run the country as a dictator. Autocracy has major problems but it has one advantage over democracy, it gets things done fast and that is what is needed now. But of course, out current president is perfectly happy globe trotting and spreading "irishness".

seanogseanog

Friends abroad cant believe the Irish people are not rioting over this. I think the irish are subservient and just don't like a fight. I cant believe the presidents silence during this period. Although Mary McAleese is Fianna Fail:rolleyes: . This country badly needs a leader!!! someone with morals and integrity, someone that is not afraid to speak their mind.

recently she stated: “What happened . . . in our own country really is characterised by almost a complete abandonment of social concern in some quarters, a much greater concern with the self, with bonuses, with me, and not with the more general world around.”

a vague watery statement that hints at business sectors, has a bit of 'sure were all to blame' and again takes the heat off policy makers Fianna Fail as if they were victims in all this.

In my opinion there's no collectivism in the biggest scam in Irish history

conorhal

I don't quite get the Ireland are the next Greece argument, we are a poor comparison to Greece with very different structural problems.

First of all, out debt to GDP ratio is about 64% compared to Greece's 120% and thus we are only half as indebted as Greece, in fact we have a lower debt to GDP ratio then Germany. We do however need to stop digging or we will get there soon enough, but our capacity to repay that debt is a bit better because it is a proportionally smaller, like having a 64% mortgage as opposed to a 120% interest only one.
Our debt to GDP ratio is about to rise sharply thanks to NAMA, but this at least is not been borrowing primarily for day to day spending which has put Greece in such a debt.

Secondly, our revenue generation is primarily export driven, in Greece it's Tourism driven, and while we are expecting to see (despite the recession) record levels of exports from Ireland this year, the recession and natural disasters do not bode well in the short term for Greece’s primary industry.

I'm not saying that we will not go the same way as Greece, we are walking a tightrope at the moment, but at lest our prospects of making it to the other side are higher then theirs.

ei.sdraob

yesterdays news

Pressure mounts on Greek Government as cost of borrowing rises above 9 per cent


up to 9.6% now :eek: for 10 year

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GGGB10YR:IND

(Irish ones here)


and 13.2% for 2 year

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GGGB2YR:IND

Inquitus

RichardAnd wrote: »

True, we do. But how do you think a government like that will get elected when their mandate will be telling PS workers and the unemployed that they will be getting cut. They won't and that, as some will agree with me, is the folly that is modern democracy.

Labour and FG are spear heading their election campaigns with insane promises like 100k new jobs and free GP visits for everyone. Some people are smart enough to ask the simply question of where the money for that will come from but most won't. People want a government that will feed their sense of entitlement and not their responsibilities.

What's needed is for the president to dissolve the government and run the country as a dictator. Autocracy has major problems but it has one advantage over democracy, it gets things done fast and that is what is needed now. But of course, out current president is perfectly happy globe trotting and spreading "irishness".

Modern Democracy is clearly flawed in many many ways. The short 4/5 year cycles encourage shortsightedness and cause an unwillingness to do the right thing driven by the short term need to be re-elected.

The electorate is largely uneducated in the big picture, and unable to make a decision based on what is best for the country, and instead only votes for what is best for themselves specifically.

This is why the IMF exists, to sort out countries where the people and their politicians live in denial of fiscal realities.

woodseb

we're close to end game now for Greece, S&P have downgraded them to junk

Portugal also downgraded too

Peanut

This could get messy for Ireland, at the least there will be renewed pressure on cutting government expenditure in the short to medium term, perhaps another emergency budget in a few months time.

Inquitus

Peanut wrote: »

This could get messy for Ireland, at the least there will be renewed pressure on cutting government expenditure in the short to medium term, perhaps another emergency budget in a few months time.

The Greek Unions have organised a 24 hours strike on the 5th of May against the Austerity measures, I hope our Unions aren't soo cussedly stubborn and stupid.

Do the Unions in Greece really want to see what happens if the EU and IMF don't bail them out and they have to default on their sovereign debt? As thats what they appear to be striking in favour of, and believe me it would be an outcome far worse than that currently proposed.....

Peanut

Inquitus wrote: »

The Greek Unions have organised a 24 hours strike on the 5th of May against the Austerity measures, I hope our Unions aren't soo cussedly stubborn and stupid.

Do the Unions in Greece really want to see what happens if the EU and IMF don't bail them out and they have to default on their sovereign debt? As thats what they appear to be striking in favour of, and believe me it would be an outcome far worse than that currently proposed.....

I think this might give them pause. A common theme of these types of protest (both here and abroad) is conspiratorial - ie. "there really IS enough money to go around and we're just being put down by the man".

I think this downgrading may bring home the seriousness of the situation as it is already wrecking collateral damage on the currency markets.

ei.sdraob

Peanut wrote: »

This could get messy for Ireland.

Pretty much any "gains" made since the last budget here in Ireland in reassuring the markets that we are on "right" path, by imposing "austerity" :rolleyes:

and of course much farted about by Fianna Fail in recent weeks about how things "improved"

have been undone in last few days


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GIGB10YR:IND

Inquitus

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Pretty much any "gains" made since the last budget here in Ireland in reassuring the markets that we are on "right" path, by imposing "austerity" :rolleyes:

and of course much farted about by Fianna Fail in recent weeks about how things "improved"

have been undone in last few days

We reached 5.9% in Jan 09 and again in Jun 09, your graphs timeframe is too short and is misleading, after the measure taken, the cost of our borrowing has improved and even now is much improved on certain points in 2009.

The Gov has made moves in the right direction and that is shown in the rates, I would argue we haven't gone far enough, and thats the reason they remain volatile, especially against the backdrop and potential contagion from Greece, Portugal and perhaps Spain.

silverharp

Portugal seems to be in the firing line now. But there is no contagion, they said so


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GSPT10YR%3AIND

ei.sdraob

Inquitus wrote: »

We reached 5.9% in Jan 09 and again in Jun 09, your graphs timeframe is too short and is misleading, after the measure taken, the cost of our borrowing has improved and even now is much improved on certain points in 2009.

my post was clearly referring to the time-frame since the last "savage" budget

Inquitus wrote: »

The Gov has made moves in the right direction

Yes they did move in right direction, tho they took their time and of course opposed by unions

Inquitus wrote: »

I would argue we haven't gone far enough, and thats the reason they remain volatile, .

Agree

Inquitus wrote: »

especially against the backdrop and potential contagion from Greece, Portugal and perhaps Spain.

you should checkout this article here

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Amhran Nua

conorhal wrote: »

I don't quite get the Ireland are the next Greece argument, we are a poor comparison to Greece with very different structural problems.

Contagion is indeed the word to pay attention to. I predicted at the end of last year that an Irish bond auction would fail due to the problems with Greece, we're slightly ahead of schedule on that one. The financial rags are being kind to us since we shifted senior debt onto the shoulders of taxpayers, but that won't wash for long with investors.

deadhead13

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

McCarthyism lives.

Inquitus

If the EU had failed to reach concensus on the bailout, the IMF is not able to lend Greece enough to make a meaningful impact, and Greece would have had no choice but to default on it's sovereign debt and restructure it.

Has anyone postulated as to the impact of something like this occurring?

Firstly on Greece?

I assume that Greece would immediately be unable to borrow funds from anywhere and some sort of chaotic shutdown of Public Services would have to occur to bring spending in line with revenues, one would imagine this would precipitate civil unrest, especially in a nation like Greece, with rioting and general lawlessness. A run on the banks, eviction from the euro, rampant inflation and unemployment - a slightly less catastrophic default than Argentina's in 2002, but still a pretty bleak outcome I guess.

Secondly on Europe and indeed the rest of the world?

I read that German and French banks are particularly in the hole with regard to Greek debt, and this would obviously precipitate the failure or bail out of a number of their banks, I presume this helps drive the need for a bailout?

I guess this would also crucify the rest of the PIIGS, us included, as the cost of borrowing would go through the roof, and that in itself would drive all sorts of Fiscal difficulties and require fairly savage actions by the respective governments to reign in spending and restore confidence, and avert a similar fate.

As we have seen today, global markets have responded poorly to the fiasco in Greece, and one would expect this would cause a substantial fall in global stocks, and probably tip off a double dip recession in europe and perhaps the US too.

______________________________________

I am just guessing here obviously, but it would be nice to see some decent theory on what happens if Greece is not bailed out and defaults.

ei.sdraob

Inquitus wrote: »

I
I read that German and French banks are particularly in the hole with regard to Greek debt, and this would obviously precipitate the failure or bail out of a number of their banks, I presume this helps drive the need for a bailout?

You do realise that the EU "bailout" is not a bailout, but a way for Greece to tap into lower interest rate debt via other EU states. The remainder (15 billion) is from IMF and the max they can give.

They wont fix a debt problem by pouring more debt at it and not solving the issues that lead here over last decade, just prolong the inevitable.

Inquitus

ei.sdraob wrote: »

You do realise that the EU "bailout" is not a bailout, but a way for Greece to tap into lower interest rate debt via other EU states. The remainder (15 billion) is from IMF and the max they can give.

They wont fix a debt problem by pouring more debt at it and not solving the issues that lead here over last decade, just prolong the inevitable.

Thats not strictly true, the rates for credit offered to Greece at the moment are untenable, its not far short of putting your budget deficit on Mastercard!

The interest payments on national debt at untenable rates make it all the more difficult for them to get their house in order. The diff between 5% and 10% is massive in that regard. This is clearly a bailout, Greece would have no choice but to default if the EU and IMF didnt put this money in, as it's simply not an option for them to borrow 8.5bn in mid may at the rates they would be offered by the markets and a default is the only way they could proceed.

baalthor

I haven't been paying a lot of attention to this over the last few days. When I heard the latest rate on the radio at first I thought they said "7%" . Then I heard 17% :eek::eek:

MaceFace

Inquitus wrote: »

If the EU had failed to reach concensus on the bailout, the IMF is not able to lend Greece enough to make a meaningful impact, and Greece would have had no choice but to default on it's sovereign debt and restructure it.

Has anyone postulated as to the impact of something like this occurring?

Firstly on Greece?

I assume that Greece would immediately be unable to borrow funds from anywhere and some sort of chaotic shutdown of Public Services would have to occur to bring spending in line with revenues, one would imagine this would precipitate civil unrest, especially in a nation like Greece, with rioting and general lawlessness. A run on the banks, eviction from the euro, rampant inflation and unemployment - a slightly less catastrophic default than Argentina's in 2002, but still a pretty bleak outcome I guess.

Secondly on Europe and indeed the rest of the world?

I read that German and French banks are particularly in the hole with regard to Greek debt, and this would obviously precipitate the failure or bail out of a number of their banks, I presume this helps drive the need for a bailout?

I guess this would also crucify the rest of the PIIGS, us included, as the cost of borrowing would go through the roof, and that in itself would drive all sorts of Fiscal difficulties and require fairly savage actions by the respective governments to reign in spending and restore confidence, and avert a similar fate.

As we have seen today, global markets have responded poorly to the fiasco in Greece, and one would expect this would cause a substantial fall in global stocks, and probably tip off a double dip recession in europe and perhaps the US too.

______________________________________

I am just guessing here obviously, but it would be nice to see some decent theory on what happens if Greece is not bailed out and defaults.

I don't think Greece is that close to just defaulting. There is a lot that will happen before that.
The most likely outcome is a restructuring of the debt and a partial loss for existing creditors.

Inquitus

MaceFace wrote: »

I don't think Greece is that close to just defaulting. There is a lot that will happen before that.
The most likely outcome is a restructuring of the debt and a partial loss for existing creditors.

Restructuring debt is still defaulting, just not on the whole lot.

cson

Inquitus wrote: »

Thats not strictly true, the rates for credit offered to Greece at the moment are untenable, its not far short of putting your budget deficit on Mastercard!

I have to laugh at that, very good sir. It'd be even more funny were it no close enough to being true for us if we stay going the way we are. You can imagine Cowen waving the plastic in the air; "throw it all that... going forward"

murphaph

This all goes to show one thing: Ireland needs to make more cuts in spending to get us back in the black. There is scope for a widening of the tax net for those currently outside of it but it won't be anywhere near enough and anyway, our public servants are still paid more than the private sector, especially at lower grades, so that's where the bulk has to come from, that and social welfare.

We cannot let the country burn to the ground like the Greeks. Anyone who thinks there's a magic "reset" button is deluding themselves. We would be out in the cold for a long time if we were to go the default route. Anyway, we borrowed the money and took the payrises...why should our creditors suffer for our own stupidity?!

20Cent

murphaph wrote: »

This all goes to show one thing: Ireland needs to make more cuts in spending to get us back in the black. There is scope for a widening of the tax net for those currently outside of it but it won't be anywhere near enough and anyway, our public servants are still paid more than the private sector, especially at lower grades, so that's where the bulk has to come from, that and social welfare.

We cannot let the country burn to the ground like the Greeks. Anyone who thinks there's a magic "reset" button is deluding themselves. We would be out in the cold for a long time if we were to go the default route. Anyway, we borrowed the money and took the payrises...why should our creditors suffer for our own stupidity?!

Because they took a gamble and it didn't work out. Like capitalism is supposed to work?

MaceFace

Inquitus wrote: »

Restructuring debt is still defaulting, just not on the whole lot.

No its not.
For Greece to default they have to miss a payment that is due.
The restructuring of the debt, which happens often with many businesses is when the creditors agree (maybe unwillingly) to defer the payment to a later date or accept a lower payment.

Completly different things that have very different implications for a country.

murphaph

20Cent wrote: »

Because they took a gamble and it didn't work out. Like capitalism is supposed to work?

That's fine, so if you lent a mate a hundred quid and he said "you took a gamble and it didn't work out" you'd slap him on the back and say "good call, can I buy you a pint?". Like f*ck you would and why should you! You lent him the money in good faith and can rightfully expect to be repaid.

It wasn't a "gamble". A gamble is when I take a chance on something, like a game of chance. If we want to use your use of the word then it's fair game to evict someone from a house they have defaulted on, because "they gambled that they'd be able to repay the debt and lost that bet", fair enough comparison? Or are private individuals exempt from this "gambling" excuse?

20Cent

murphaph wrote: »

That's fine, so if you lent a mate a hundred quid and he said "you took a gamble and it didn't work out" you'd slap him on the back and say "good call, can I buy you a pint?". Like f*ck you would and why should you! You lent him the money in good faith and can rightfully expect to be repaid.

It wasn't a "gamble". A gamble is when I take a chance on something, like a game of chance. If we want to use your use of the word then it's fair game to evict someone from a house they have defaulted on, because "they gambled that they'd be able to repay the debt and lost that bet", fair enough comparison? Or are private individuals exempt from this "gambling" excuse?

If my mate was charging me interest and I couldn't pay he took a gamble that he would make money on the loan. It didn't work out so tough.

People who default on mortgage payments are kicked out of their homes and still owe the balance. Private individuals loose their investments when they fall through. The golden circle and banks etc seem to be able to loose investments and still get their money back.

Capitalism for the poor socialism for the rich.

irishcarbomb2k

Anglo Irish Bank - €8.5 Billion
Terminal 2 - €1.2Billion
Ibuprofen - €4.32
Greek financial debt -€85Billion

knowing we can all put it on the mastercard and think about it tomorrow --Priceless

Mastercard

20Cent

20Cent wrote: »

Because they took a gamble and it didn't work out. Like capitalism is supposed to work?

lol? You might be happier in After Hours I think. Economics/Politics does not seem to be your forté. Oh, and please dispose of any voting card when it arrives, to save yourself (And us poor sods) the embarrassment of having to emigrate with our tails between our legs because our country has been ruined....by us.

WalterMitty

conorhal wrote: »

I don't quite get the Ireland are the next Greece argument, we are a poor comparison to Greece with very different structural problems.

First of all, out debt to GDP ratio is about 64% compared to Greece's 120% and thus we are only half as indebted as Greece, in fact we have a lower debt to GDP ratio then Germany. We do however need to stop digging or we will get there soon enough, but our capacity to repay that debt is a bit better because it is a proportionally smaller, like having a 64% mortgage as opposed to a 120% interest only one.
Our debt to GDP ratio is about to rise sharply thanks to NAMA, but this at least is not been borrowing primarily for day to day spending which has put Greece in such a debt.

Secondly, our revenue generation is primarily export driven, in Greece it's Tourism driven, and while we are expecting to see (despite the recession) record levels of exports from Ireland this year, the recession and natural disasters do not bode well in the short term for Greece’s primary industry.

I'm not saying that we will not go the same way as Greece, we are walking a tightrope at the moment, but at lest our prospects of making it to the other side are higher then theirs.

Firstly GNP ratio not GDP ratio most appropriate to us.
Second, Germany and all these high debt countries generally have great infrastructure to show for their debt. Japan and germany have high national debt but best infrastructure in world and able to reapy that debt using the economic activity this infrastrucure creates.
Thirdly you ignore the private sector debt which reduces net incomes and remains a drag on economy for decades and any defaults get added to national debt.
Fourth , have you added NAMA to that figure? Even though we'll get some back its well accepted that the banking crisis will cost around 30+billion in the end.

ei.sdraob

20Cent wrote: »

If my mate was charging me interest and I couldn't pay he took a gamble that he would make money on the loan. It didn't work out so tough.

People who default on mortgage payments are kicked out of their homes and still owe the balance. Private individuals loose their investments when they fall through. The golden circle and banks etc seem to be able to loose investments and still get their money back.

Capitalism for the poor socialism for the rich.

Since this is my topic on the now rapid events of Greek fall

im asking you politely to not derail it

with your usual communist ideology and dogma (and need I remind you that it was successive left wing policies in Greece over a decade that led it here)

:cool:

20Cent

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

lol? You might be happier in After Hours I think. Economics/Politics does not seem to be your forté. Oh, and please dispose of any voting card when it arrives, to save yourself (And us poor sods) the embarrassment of having to emigrate with our tails between our legs because our country has been ruined....by us.

By us?
I don't recall lending out billions, getting bailed out or creating a property bubble.
Still I am being asked to pay for it.
Not asked even am paying for it.

I'll vote how I like thanks.

20Cent

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Since this is my topic on the now rapid events of Greek fall

im asking you politely to not derail it

with your usual communist ideology and dogma (and need I remind you that it was successive left wing policies in Greece over a decade that led it here)

:cool:

Since the days of McCarthy anyone who does not agree with the "capitalist" agenda is branded a communist in order to stifle debate. I'm pretty left of center actually. To the far right everyone else looks left wing.

Anyway won't derail anything carry on.............

cson

Why must every thread get derailed by the same ****e?

I actually cannot understand it. I posted off topic before in this forum and got infracted for it, where's the consistency?

20Cent

20Cent wrote: »

By us?
I don't recall lending out billions, getting bailed out or creating a property bubble.
Still I am being asked to pay for it.
Not asked even am paying for it.

I'll vote how I like thanks.

And your plan for sorting this problem out is...to default on payments.

ei.sdraob

20Cent wrote: »

Since the days of McCarthy anyone who does not agree with the "capitalist" agenda is branded a communist in order to stifle debate. I'm pretty left of center actually. To the far right everyone else looks left wing.

Anyway won't derail anything carry on.............

I invite the readers to read your past posts here so

Now fancy moving along and starting your own thread instead of derailing this one?

cson

How much of an impact would a Greek default have on the Euro? It's looking like a possibility at this stage.

alias141282

murphaph wrote: »

This all goes to show one thing: Ireland needs to make more cuts in spending to get us back in the black. There is scope for a widening of the tax net for those currently outside of it but it won't be anywhere near enough and anyway, our public servants are still paid more than the private sector, especially at lower grades, so that's where the bulk has to come from, that and social welfare.

Ok, so if you keep taking money out of the economy, more and more Irish businesses will go bust. Unemployment will keep rising. The labour force is shrinking. Young people are emigrating. Tax intake will keep falling. You're setting the country up for a downward economic spiral.

murphaph wrote: »

Anyway, we borrowed the money and took the payrises...

The banks were ringing people up and offering them huge loans at low interest rates. The banks and the State have a duty to lend responsibly. You cannot have a situation where the banks are throwing money out the door at people who cannot realistically pay it back and then for the banks to use the full force of the law to crush people who fall into arrears.

murphaph wrote: »

why should our creditors suffer for our own stupidity?!

Well I thought in capitalism if you take a risk and it goes bad you suffer the loss. In reality thats not what happens. You have the privatisation of profit and the socialisation of risks and losses.

cson

And the above has what exactly to do with the OP and thread title?

Spudmonkey

20Cent wrote: »

If my mate was charging me interest and I couldn't pay he took a gamble that he would make money on the loan. It didn't work out so tough.

People who default on mortgage payments are kicked out of their homes and still owe the balance. Private individuals loose their investments when they fall through. The golden circle and banks etc seem to be able to loose investments and still get their money back.

Capitalism for the poor socialism for the rich.

The usual union rhetoric...

If your mate knew your attitude, do you think he would have lent you that money in the first place. He would probably have been better served placing that money down the bookies!

Same applies to countries, that money was lent on good faith. The only reason why a country should default on its debt is because it literally can't service it, not because it doesn't "feel" like it, and certainly not while it maintains high wages for its countries occupants.

Inquitus

We have no choice but to inflict further stern measures in this years budget:

Increase the Tax Net
Increase Tax
Cut the PS Cost
Cut Welfare

All of these need to be done in some measure, we simply can't afford to blindly go on borrowing and not end up like Greece, and unfortunately for our PS Workers, their wagebill is one of the main areas of unsustainable spending at the moment and as such it needs cutting again. Welfare will need revisiting too as it again is one of the worst areas. The scopes for increasing the tax net and increasing Tax are limited, we really need to focus our efforts on reducing costs in line with revenues rather than vice-versa.

However when we go to cut the PS Bill again, I fully expect our Unions, much like the Greek Unions to resist it to the hilt, even though its plainly obvious the money is not there to sustain current expenditure.

Spudmonkey

alias141282 wrote: »

Ok, so if you keep taking money out of the economy, more and more Irish businesses will go bust. Unemployment will keep rising. The labour force is shrinking. Young people are emigrating. Tax intake will keep falling. You're setting the country up for a downward economic spiral.

It's money we have to keep borrowing!!!!! At ever increasing rates of interest!!!

alias141282 wrote: »

The banks were ringing people up and offering them huge loans at low interest rates. The banks and the State have a duty to lend responsibly. You cannot have a situation where the banks are throwing money out the door at people who cannot realistically pay it back and then for the banks to use the full force of the law to crush people who fall into arrears.

:rolleyes: The bank rang me too.... I refused their loan! Wasn't that hard!

alias141282 wrote: »

Well I thought in capitalism if you take a risk and it goes bad you suffer the loss. In reality thats not what happens. You have the privatisation of profit and the socialisation of risks and losses.

Do you define what's happening now as capitalism??

ei.sdraob

cson wrote: »

How much of an impact would a Greek default have on the Euro? It's looking like a possibility at this stage.

Thats a good question

Firstly it most likely would strengthen against dollar etc

Then some time later other PIIGS may be "attacked" in a similar manner by the markets, potentially forcing the hand of whoever is in government to get the house in order faster.

As for Greece itself who knows, I actually have work colleagues there who are just sitting back watching it all unfold, it certainly wont be the end of the world and sure at least they have the nice climate