Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Volchaos backlash

  • 20-04-2010 10:10pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭


    So, nothing has changed - Enya's still erupting, winds have not changed, and the Ash Advisory charts still paint the same picture as previous days, but now suddenly none of that matters anymore - the authorities have done a U-turn and given in to the inevitable outcome - it is, and probably always was, safe to fly. The Ash Advisory bible no longer carries weight, it's suddenly been banished to hell. Its frailties have been found out, and about time too.

    It predicted ash over us for days, but there was no evidence of it. If a weather model forecasts cloud and rain, but you look out the window and it's sunny and dry, then your model was wrong. Same with the VA model. Whatever about VA being invisible to the naked eye, its EFFECTS should still have been plain to see. Like the reason why the sky is blue. You can't see the gasses that cause it, but you know they're there because they make the sky seem blue. Similarly the ash should have shown its presence. But there weren't the brilliant sunsets. RGB satellite pictures have shown no ash over us for days. And most importantly - flight tests proved conclusively that there was never enough ash to cause a problem.

    The ban has been proven unjustified.

    The ****'s going to hit the fan.

    There are lots of unhappy campers (this poster included)


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,009 ✭✭✭✭Run_to_da_hills


    This is discussed here in the appropriate forum.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    This is discussed here in the appropriate forum.

    Er, that's the conspiracy theory forum - this thread isn't meant to be one of those, it's to discuss how they got it so wrong and why.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 27 The_Saint


    I'm a regular nobody in relation to aviation but I buy plane tickets, personally for what it matters, I don't think they got it wrong to cancel flights while there was uncertainty over safety of flying into a huge damn ash cloud made up of glass and other abrasive particles, especially since it's so rare an event and because there has been evidence in the past of big jets having engine trouble as a direct result of volcanic ash... I think the argument is a no brainer for most people, and I wouldn't feel safe flying just now either with ash still spewing from the volcano in this direction... also read this: 'pilots warning not to make rash decision to reopen airspace' - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/20/volcanic-ash-cloud-pilots-warning , now coming from pilots I'd prefer to listen to them as a passenger.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Foggy43


    I believe 2 military aircraft picked up engine damage after flying through the ash.
    EI2676's weather radar, this evening the 20th , picked up what has been but down to ash but the crew could not see anything.

    Because flights were stoped we have had no civillian aircraft incident. How do we know for sure if flying was allowed continue there would not have been an incident. All it would take is one incident and we would be demanding action be taken.

    The Icelandic Prime Minister said last night that the volcano erupting at the moment is a small one. The big one erupts every 100 years. The big one is expected to erupt in the next 4 years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭Davidth88


    Never mind the BS if this ban was justified or not.

    I personally would not have got on an aeroplane if authorities said it was unsafe, the airlines are in a perception business , they have to PROVE to us they are safe ( Perception in this case truly is reality ). After all they are locking us in a metal tube and throwing us up 6 miles into the sky.

    Anyway , it will be interesting to see what may happen in the next 6 months / year to short haul travel/ airlines.

    I predict some well known / large airlines going belly up .

    I also reckon that people will rediscover that the ferries/other modes of transport exist , and that it makes little or no sense to fly to say Liverpool or Manchester from Dublin . It could be we start to see airlines realise that customers are not a never ending commodity that they can basically take the p*ss out of , maybe we will see some customer service return to this sector.

    Put it this way , I had two visitors who got home to London on Monday for 40 Euro ( ferry/ train ) the cheapest you would get to Heathrow is about 100 euro return ( after taxes etc etc etc ), yes of course it takes a few hours longer but there is no hassle about your luggage , no invasive security checks , no rules about you having to have passports ( within the CTA ) , no rules about not carrying liquids ohh and yes the ferry will leave if its snowing/foggy/ there is volcanic ash etc.

    I for one would consider this now a viable option esp to northern England.

    And yes I know you can get to ' London ' Stansted or ' London ' Gatwick possibly cheaper , but consider the Stansted express costs roughly 20 euro each way

    http://www.stanstedexpress.com/Tickets/Fares.html


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,575 ✭✭✭✭FlutterinBantam


    Su Campu wrote: »
    So, nothing has changed - Enya's still erupting, winds have not changed, and the Ash Advisory charts still paint the same picture as previous days, but now suddenly none of that matters anymore - the authorities have done a U-turn and given in to the inevitable outcome - it is, and probably always was, safe to fly. The Ash Advisory bible no longer carries weight, it's suddenly been banished to hell. Its frailties have been found out, and about time too.

    It predicted ash over us for days, but there was no evidence of it. If a weather model forecasts cloud and rain, but you look out the window and it's sunny and dry, then your model was wrong. Same with the VA model. Whatever about VA being invisible to the naked eye, its EFFECTS should still have been plain to see. Like the reason why the sky is blue. You can't see the gasses that cause it, but you know they're there because they make the sky seem blue. Similarly the ash should have shown its presence. But there weren't the brilliant sunsets. RGB satellite pictures have shown no ash over us for days. And most importantly - flight tests proved conclusively that there was never enough ash to cause a problem.

    The ban has been proven unjustified.

    The ****'s going to hit the fan.

    There are lots of unhappy campers (this poster included)

    Bulldust missus, if you don't mind me saying so, and all said with the benefit of hindsight.

    What did you want? Send up aircraft willy nilly and see if they fly or fall out of the sky or wreck the engines?.

    This was an unprecedented event, lessons have been learned, and undoubtedly things could have been handled better, but you clearly know little about airline operation if that is your attitude.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Bulldust missus, if you don't mind me saying so, and all said with the benefit of hindsight.

    What did you want? Send up aircraft willy nilly and see if they fly or fall out of the sky or wreck the engines?.

    This was an unprecedented event, lessons have been learned, and undoubtedly things could have been handled better, but you clearly know little about airline operation if that is your attitude.

    It's not hindsight, I've been saying it all along, read my posts in other threads.

    And aircraft did go up on Saturday and proved there was no damage. But it took until three days later to get the finger out. Nothing has changed in the meantime, the same "risk" is there if you go by the sacred ash advisories. But the weakness in these advisories has been exposed. To say there's the same risk in southern Europe as there was further north goes against simple dispersion physics. This logic finally this got through to the authorities, but it was way too late.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭Davidth88


    Su Campo

    In he aviation business perception IS reality

    If the public even sniff that it may be unsafe to fly ( however mistaken that is ) they will not fly.

    Look at the recent A330 thing , I reckon you had people refusing to fly on A330 because they ' fall out of the sky ' , which of course we all know is rubbish.

    or the Concorde thing , a freak external problem and the whole fleet is grounded for extensive and expensive modifications

    The airlines are not ( and should never be ) in the risk management business . The bean counters would have had the airlines flying all the time regardless .

    It's all very well to say now after the fact , ohh there was no risk , I am not an aircraft engineer , nor a volcano expert , nor an engine expert , not even a pilot.

    I too am a little disturbed that yesterday afternoon it was danger danger danger , then suddenly at 21:00 yesterday , all safe ...... stinks to high heaven to me .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 111 ✭✭westair


    Davidth88 wrote: »
    Su Campo



    I too am a little disturbed that yesterday afternoon it was danger danger danger , then suddenly at 21:00 yesterday , all safe ...... stinks to high heaven to me .

    Me too....it sounds like an economic decision and not a safety one.

    I was planning on travelling this weekend but have decided against it until this mess is cleared up - by nature, and not by some bureaucrats with who knows what motivations.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭Davidth88


    westair wrote: »
    Me too....it sounds like an economic decision and not a safety one.

    I was planning on travelling this weekend but have decided against it until this mess is cleared up - by nature, and not by some bureaucrats with who knows what motivations.

    I rest my case

    Perception is reality !


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 167 ✭✭airvan


    Similarly the ash should have shown its presence.
    The fact that you didn't see it proves nothing. It was there, last Saturday there was a layer of ash between 4000 and 5000 feet over Ireland. I was completely invisible until you were level with it and could smell it and feel it. Presumably it was the same at higher levels.

    One wonders what kind of posts we would have seen here if the airlines had continued regardless and several went down or were forced into emergency landings with ruined engines and genuinely terrified passengers?

    The fact the no one got hurt, no one died and no aircraft has suffered damage is sufficient in of itself to justify the grounding.


Advertisement