Germany questions need for Europe-wide aircraft grounding

probe

France, Germany and the Netherlands have had aircraft flying in the “no fly zone” without any problems today (Condor has a 767-330 ER) flying at 816 km/h at 7,322 m near FRA as I write. It was at 3,000 m earlier and is steadily climbing. Die Zeit asks why there is no independent testing of volcanic particles in the airspace to confirm the accuracy of Britain’s VAAC warnings enforced on the rest of Europe. Deutsche Wetterdienst has only performed only one test at Hohenpeißberg (DE-82383) using laser beams. (Another incompetent state agency not doing its job with thousands of flights cancelled)? Lufthansa re-positioned about a dozen aircraft in preparation for the removal of the embargo over the past 24h without any problems. And they are shouting out loud about not being able to fly their aircraft. The Russian President flew to Poland today to pay his respects to the Polish president, even though the Brits had declared it to be a no fly zone.

Britain has control over forecast data dissemination for volcanic issues occurring over Britain, Ireland and Iceland. Britain’s meteo service do not use any of the established high resolution weather software platforms - COSMOS, HIRLAM or ALADIN – which run on supercomputers running on software designed by the best brainpower from multiple countries across Europe. Instead the British go it alone and re-invent the wheel with their own meteo system, which has shown itself to be not very accurate over the years. The rest of Europe, (+ Russia, Middle East and Africa) (ie aside from GB, IRL and IS) gets its volcanic (VAAC) forecast from Toulouse. But because Iceland is in "GB VAAC space" Britain is effectively in control of Irish airspace (and the rest of European airspace during these events).

http://www.zeit.de/reisen/2010-04/kritik-sperrung-luftraum-flugsicherung

PS Condor has 3 aircraft in the “no fly zone” at present – 2 x 757 and 1 x 767. (www.condor.de)

Even cuddly Rupert Murdoch is starting to ask questions in the Wall St Journal about the mess

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704246804575191181799721308.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopStories

Inquitus

I am sorry but in a situation where the airlines have a vested interest in the resumption of flying, I wouldn't take their word for ****, corporations cannot be trusted to make the right decisions in these circumstances.

For better or for worse, the relevant authorities are the only ones who can make an honest and balanced assessment.

Mr Benevolent

I can't wait to see Lufthansa's reaction to Katla

probe

Katla will hopefully remain comfortably in bed under the Myrdalsjökull icecap. http://en.vedur.is/#tab=skjalftar

And if it wakes up, that is a different issue to be dealt with on its merits, if/when it takes place.

In the same way that you might be visiting New York or some other city and have your bank cards stolen. The fact that another guy in NY has had his cards stolen does not imply that yours will be stolen too. There is no point in checking out of your hotel and sleeping on a bench in Central Park, just in case your cards might be stolen to avoid the difficulty/embarrassment in not being able to pay your hotel bill. Or an excuse for the authorities to block all Visa and MasterCards in New York because someone's card was snatched.

All one is asking for is intelligent analysis based on state of the art technology.

Mr Benevolent

probe wrote: »

Katla will hopefully remain comfortably in bed under the Myrdalsjökull icecap. http://en.vedur.is/#tab=skjalftar

And if it wakes up, that is a different issue to be dealt with on its merits, if/when it takes place.

In the same way that you might be visiting New York or some other city and have your bank cards stolen. The fact that another guy in NY has had his cards stolen does not imply that yours will be stolen too. There is no point in checking out of your hotel and sleeping on a bench in Central Park, just in case your cards might be stolen to avoid the difficulty/embarrassment in not being able to pay your hotel bill. Or an excuse for the authorities to block all Visa and MasterCards in New York because someone's card was snatched.

All one is asking for is intelligent analysis based on state of the art technology.

That's the one thing we won't get. Put it this way: If an aeronautical engineer recommends staying on the ground for fear of engine trouble then we'd do well to follow his advice.

probe

Radar near IS-235 Keflavik ( http://www.kefairport.is/english/ ) has not detected the plume from Eyjafjallajökull since 08h this morning, which implies that it is now below 3,000m.

http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/2010/nr/1881

probe

Confab wrote: »

That's the one thing we won't get. Put it this way: If an aeronautical engineer recommends staying on the ground for fear of engine trouble then we'd do well to follow his advice.

I know. That is why I am saying that the volcanic plume monitoring operation for Ireland, Britain and Iceland should be moved to Toulouse. There is no point in having these critical judgments and the software design supporting them being run from a damp air climate like England where people's minds don't function at their optimum.

castie

"implies" Wouldnt you love it if the pilot came on to say.

"Were clear to land. This implies well be landing safely"

Not exactly the most comforting of words.

probe

castie wrote: »

"implies" Wouldnt you love it if the pilot came on to say.

"Were clear to land. This implies well be landing safely"

Not exactly the most comforting of words.

I have never heard a pilot saying "we're clear to land", not to mention the implication you attach. I expect him and his fellow crew members to be busy doing the job. In the same way that I expect the vaac.gb lot to be doing their job - rather than doing a CYA covering most of Europe, just in case, - meanwhile Germany, France and the Netherlands among others are flying in this forbidden airspace without a problem.

Inquitus

probe wrote: »

I have never heard a pilot saying "we're clear to land", not to mention the implication you attach. I expect him and his fellow crew members to be busy doing the job. In the same way that I expect the vaac.gb lot to be doing their job - rather than doing a CYA covering most of Europe, just in case, - meanwhile Germany, France and the Netherlands among others are flying in this forbidden airspace without a problem.

A few planes flying safely is a long way from a guarantee that a full schedule of european flights could fly safely.

The airlines want to make money, and they weigh up the benefits of public safety on a risk / reward basis, which is no way the decision of opening European airspace should be made. The current ban may or may not be overstretched, but anything the airlines say should be ignored completely as they simply cannot be trusted to put public safety above profits in these circumstances.

castie

probe wrote: »

I have never heard a pilot saying "we're clear to land", not to mention the implication you attach. I expect him and his fellow crew members to be busy doing the job. In the same way that I expect the vaac.gb lot to be doing their job - rather than doing a CYA covering most of Europe, just in case, - meanwhile Germany, France and the Netherlands among others are flying in this forbidden airspace without a problem.

Is it worth the risk if even a single plane were to crash?

Mr Benevolent

castie wrote: »

Is it worth the risk if even a single plane were to crash?

Not when the public confidence in the aviation industry is at stake. Problem is, a lot of airlines live hand to mouth and if this goes on for another two weeks they'll have huge job losses (and Aer Lingus will be one of the first victims). Ryanair and Easyjet, on the other hand, haven't said a word because they have the cash reserves, business model and competent management to survive this with minimal financial losses.

silverharp

unless the decision is 100% above board, would you fly next week? I wouldnt. Also I'd be suprised if the airlines insurers didnt step in with their 2 cents worth.

Andrew33

Its a really tricky one to call, nobody wants to be the person who declares the all clear only for an airliner to fall out of the sky with clogged engines. even if normal flight services are resumed shortly, its going to have an affect on the publics perception of air travel and will impact on airlines business for the next 6-9 months at least.

rugbyman

Probe, interesting stuff., but you have not mentioned the Famine., 800 years ,etc
Rugbyman

probe

Silverharp2 wrote: »

unless the decision is 100% above board, would you fly next week? I wouldnt. Also I'd be suprised if the airlines insurers didnt step in with their 2 cents worth.

I plan to if the flight operates. Otherwise I face an 1,900 km drive. French railways are half on strike (ahem, action sociale as the *astards euphemistically call it) - and have been for the past two weeks. At least I'm not alone - Angela Merkel's plane from the US had to land in Lisbon, and she had to travel by car from there via Rome back "home" to Berlin. Unlike Angela, I don't plan to travel in a convoy of armored cars...

Switzerland has also allowed certain flights to operate today:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jh7lQ-qBxQMPzPd3Iap7_s3YDBfQD9F5H4M81

http://www.skyguide.ch

probe

rugbyman wrote: »

Probe, interesting stuff., but you have not mentioned the Famine., 800 years ,etc
Rugbyman

Quoi?

WalterMitty

Lovelock might say the earth is rebelling.

silverharp

probe wrote: »

I plan to if the flight operates. Otherwise I face an 1,900 km drive. French railways are half on strike (ahem, action sociale as the *astards euphemistically call it) - and have been for the past two weeks. At least I'm not alone - Angela Merkel's plane from the US had to land in Lisbon, and she had to travel by car from there via Rome back "home" to Berlin. Unlike Angela, I don't plan to travel in a convoy of armored cars...

Switzerland has also allowed certain flights to operate today:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jh7lQ-qBxQMPzPd3Iap7_s3YDBfQD9F5H4M81

http://www.skyguide.ch

I'm sure a lot of people will and if there is a day or 2 without an incident then most will follow. However I wouldnt book any business travel or plan a city break in the next couple of weeks.

silverharp

WalterMitty wrote: »

Lovelock might say the earth is rebelling.

waiting to the US to threaten Iran with a nuclear strike unless it calls off the rebellion..........

probe

I'm not suggesting that anyone fly into plume spewing off SE Iceland.

But thousands of km away, the stuff is heavily diluted for the most part and logically if one enters a "polluted" segment of airspace, the best course of action in my mind would be to turn back into the clean air one had just left. Rather than climbing or diving into an unknown quantity of plume. Easier said than done I suspect. But the other extreme is to shut down everything and stay in bed with a pillow over one's head!

Eumetsat has good satellite imagery of the dust:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/DUST/WESTERNEUROPE/index.htm

The red stuff over North Africa / Med area is probably just normal desert sand. These areas are clear of IS-plume according to http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271612174.png

probe

Silverharp2 wrote: »

I'm sure a lot of people will and if there is a day or 2 without an incident then most will follow. However I wouldnt book any business travel or plan a city break in the next couple of weeks.

I intend to have a "plan B" to get back in the event of an escalation of the problem and to do my own due diligence before boarding an aircraft. The most dangerous decision makers are "CYA driven" types because their mindset is totally focused on CYA rather than the real risks and how to minimise/prevent problems.

airvan

Probe, you're right on the one hand. If flights were to resume most would operate quite normally. But the key word is most. One or two might encounter dangerous levels of ash, one or two might be brought down with choked engines, one or two might crash killing all on board. Your simplistic notion that

the best course of action in my mind would be to turn back into the clean air one had just left

is not realistic and impractical anyway as you don't really know exactly where you will meet the ash cloud. In any case if the engines are stopped you're going down anyway.

You say

the stuff is heavily diluted

Some of it is. My experience of it is that it's almost invisible except when you're level with the layer. At which point you can smell it and feel it on your skin. No problem you might think. But bear in mind that a typical short haul airliner will fly maybe ten times a day or more in and out of layers of the stuff some diluted some not. Imagine the cumulative effect on the engines? Imagine the cumulative effect over several days. At what point will the engines start to feel the effects and at what point will they fail? Do you want to buy that particular lotto ticket?

Quite simply there is no other alternative than to ground airline traffic. If they had continued to fly, there would certainly be an incident or accident by now. A British met office research aircraft did actually encounter dangerous levels of ash. In any case it's likely the public wouldn't fly anyway. People are wary of flying at the best of times. I wouldn't recommend it and I've actually flown through an ash layer myself several times. I certainly wouldn't want to be anywhere near it in a airliner or in anything with jet engines.

Tea 1000

airvan wrote: »

Probe, you're right on the one hand. If flights were to resume most would operate quite normally. But the key word is most. One or two might encounter dangerous levels of ash, one or two might be brought down with choked engines, one or two might crash killing all on board. You're simplistic notion that is not realistic and impractical anyway as you don't really know exactly where you will meet the ash cloud. In any case if the engines are stopped you're going down anyway.

You say Some of it is. My experience of it is that it's almost invisible except when you're level with the layer. At which point you can smell it and feel it on your skin. No problem you might think. But bear in mind that a typical short haul airliner will fly maybe ten times a day or more in and out of layers of the stuff some diluted some not. Imagine the cumulative effect on the engines? Imagine the cumulative effect over several days. At what point will the engines start to feel the effects and at what point will they fail? Do you want to buy that particular lotto ticket?

Quite simply there is no other alternative than to ground airline traffic. If they had continued to fly, there would certainly be an incident or accident by now. A British met office research aircraft did actually encounter dangerous levels of ash. In any case it's likely the public wouldn't fly anyway. People are wary of flying at the best of times. I wouldn't recommend it and I've actually flown through an ash layer myself several times. I certainly wouldn't want to be anywhere near it in a airliner or in anything with jet engines.

True, and based on that, it begs the question: When flights start operating again, will they have to perform frequent mechanical checks to make sure that there is no obvios cumulitive effect on the engines? As in check after every flight for a day or so, then after every 5 flights, then 10 etc...

Su Campu

probe wrote: »

Eumetsat has good satellite imagery of the dust:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/DUST/WESTERNEUROPE/index.htm

The red stuff over North Africa / Med area is probably just normal desert sand. These areas are clear of IS-plume according to http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271612174.png

That's a picture from Friday and was widely show in the media. However, the large area of red/orange to the north of the UK is NOT volcanic ash, it is high cirrus. This was falsely labelled as the ash cloud. I was following that channel and that area started well to the west of Iceland and moved eastwards in response to a strong jetstreak. The ash is the narrow black area on the northern edge of the orange.

I think that needed to be pointed out, as many people seeing it assumed it was the ash.

crisco10

airvan wrote: »

Probe, you're right on the one hand. If flights were to resume most would operate quite normally. But the key word is most. One or two might encounter dangerous levels of ash, one or two might be brought down with choked engines, one or two might crash killing all on board. Your simplistic notion that is not realistic and impractical anyway as you don't really know exactly where you will meet the ash cloud. In any case if the engines are stopped you're going down anyway.

You say Some of it is. My experience of it is that it's almost invisible except when you're level with the layer. At which point you can smell it and feel it on your skin. No problem you might think. But bear in mind that a typical short haul airliner will fly maybe ten times a day or more in and out of layers of the stuff some diluted some not. Imagine the cumulative effect on the engines? Imagine the cumulative effect over several days. At what point will the engines start to feel the effects and at what point will they fail? Do you want to buy that particular lotto ticket?

Quite simply there is no other alternative than to ground airline traffic. If they had continued to fly, there would certainly be an incident or accident by now. A British met office research aircraft did actually encounter dangerous levels of ash. In any case it's likely the public wouldn't fly anyway. People are wary of flying at the best of times. I wouldn't recommend it and I've actually flown through an ash layer myself several times. I certainly wouldn't want to be anywhere near it in a airliner or in anything with jet engines.

Point of interest, what is a "dangerous level of ash"? Carrying on from your point, would any amount of ash not be dangerous if the aircraft was doing high cycles around the cloud?

probe

"The crisis that closed much of Europe's airspace for five days finally showed signs of easing yesterday as officials acknowledged flaws in the computer models that led them to ground thousands of flights after a volcanic eruption in Iceland."

"The crisis has led to the cancellation of about 82,000 flights, affecting nearly 7m people."

Let's assume each "affected PAX" incurred an extra €500 on extra hotel, food, car rental, rail, lost pay or other costs, these people are personally out of pocket by €3.5 billion - which is far more than the airlines losses.

Why was Brussels asleep on the job? Anyone who passes through the Shengen section of Brussels airport from time to time - will know. On Fridays it is packed with Brussels bureaucrats escaping home for the weekend.

More:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe005684-4c12-11df-a217-00144feab49a.html

airvan

I imagine by dangerous levels they were saying that the aircraft was in immediate danger of clogged engines or damage to the aircraft. Like the now famous 747 over Indonesia. There are two dangers as I see it, the possibility of flying into a dense ash cloud and losing power immediately or the accumulated effects over a period of hours or days. Or a combination of the two for example the engines becoming degraded gradually over a period of days then encountering a more concentrated ash cloud which normally wouldn't bring it down.

I wonder at the attitude of people who say this is all an overreaction. Do they really need an aircraft to crash before the point is made?

probe

"Flawed computer models may have exacerbated the reaction to the Icelandic volcano eruption that has grounded tens of thousands of flights, stranded hundreds of thousands of passengers and cost businesses hundreds of millions of euros".

He (Matthias Ruete, the EU's director-general for mobility and transport) also urged European officials to consider adopting US aviation standards.

"If you take the situation across the Atlantic, there the advice would probably be: don't fly over the volcano. Otherwise, it is up to you to take the precautions necessary," Mr Ruete said.

The US system leaves air carriers with the responsibility to determine whether it is safe to fly but "the American model is not a model of less safety", he said. "You just need to look at the statistics to see that."

"The UK Met Office said: 'The model has performed very well in terms of its verification of surface observations [of ash].'" If they really believe this, how come about 40 aircraft made test flights on the mainland without any trace of ash on their aircraft engines - in airspace the GB Met office proscribed as a no fly zone?

CDG Airport is open today with thousands of people taking off and landing every hour - despite the fact that Britain has banned air travel in Northern France!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271763280.png

More:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1c05510c-4c13-11df-a217-00144feab49a.html

Latest Meteosat dust image: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/DUST/WESTERNEUROPE/index.htm

Satellite imagery HD: ftp://ftp.eumetsat.int/pub/EUM/out/USD/videos/mpg_vol_ash_europe/100414_1600-100418_1100_m9_rgb_dust.mov

(2GB file - don't bother clicking on this unless you have Gigabit internet... or I suspect will be waiting for some time to view it)

Su Campu

I was supposed to fly to Dubai this evening, via LHR. How come BMI and BA are still saying they'll be operating flights this evening when the latest VAAC chart shows England to be still under the same cloud as us, which has Dublin closed till at least 7pm?

Are individual airlines now taking their own decisions? I would fly no bother, the only problem I have is that my BMI flight from Dublin at 18:15 is cancelled but the one after it isn't, but that one would leave me late for my BA connection at 21:40.

probe

Su Campu wrote: »

I was supposed to fly to Dubai this evening, via LHR. How come BMI and BA are still saying they'll be operating flights this evening when the latest VAAC chart shows England to be still under the same cloud as us, which has Dublin closed till at least 7pm?

Are individual airlines now taking their own decisions? I would fly no bother, the only problem I have is that my BMI flight from Dublin at 18:15 is cancelled but the one after it isn't, but that one would leave me late for my BA connection at 21:40.

Personally I would consider cancelling the BA connection (they want people to cancel if they really don't need a seat over the next 5 days or so). Get your money back and re-route later in the week if you can afford to wait.

Air France has been working down the backlog today. BA hasn't started to do this. Why not fly from CDG to Dubai? They are running a shuttle train every 3 minutes through the channel tunnel at present. Or get Eurostar from London to Lille Europe (1h20 journey time), and connect with another TGV which takes you non-stop into CDG airport right next to terminals 2E and 2F where Air France process flights to Dubai.

www.eurostar.com
www.voyages-sncf.com (Lille > CDG res). Prepay your ticket online and when you get to Lille you can print out the ticket at any ticket machine to save you waiting at the ticket counter.
www.airfrance.fr

AF is showing availability to Dubai on Wed, Thrs and Fri at the moment.

On the Continent airlines are totally ignoring the London VAAC no fly zone map for northern Europe. Charles de Gaulle airport has 800 flights today, in total breach of the boundaries in the VAAC map: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271763280.png

Look at the radar map of what is really happening:
http://www.radarvirtuel.com

Lufthansa, KLM, Swiss Airlines and many others have been flying over Irish airspace en route to the USA.

Aer Lingus has a number of flights coming into Shannon today from Continental destinations.

Su Campu

probe wrote: »

Personally I would consider cancelling the BA connection (they want people to cancel if they really don't need a seat over the next 5 days or so). Get your money back and re-route later in the week if you can afford to wait.

Air France has been working down the backlog today. BA hasn't started to do this. Why not fly from CDG to Dubai? They are running a shuttle train every 3 minutes through the channel tunnel at present. Or get Eurostar from London to Lille Europe (1h20 journey time), and connect with another TGV which takes you non-stop into CDG airport right next to terminals 2E and 2F where Air France process flights to Dubai.

www.eurostar.com
www.voyages-sncf.com (Lille > CDG res). Prepay your ticket online and when you get to Lille you can print out the ticket at any ticket machine to save you waiting at the ticket counter.
www.airfrance.fr

AF is showing availability to Dubai on Wed, Thrs and Fri at the moment.

On the Continent airlines are totally ignoring the London VAAC no fly zone map for northern Europe. Charles de Gaulle airport has 800 flights today, in total breach of the boundaries in the VAAC map: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271763280.png

Look at the radar map of what is really happening:
http://www.radarvirtuel.com

Lufthansa, KLM, Swiss Airlines and many others have been flying over Irish airspace en route to the USA.

Aer Lingus has a number of flights coming into Shannon today from Continental destinations.

Thanks for all the effort, but in the end the flight was cancelled. I called my booking agent and have rebooked for May 1st. That means the bank holiday, so one day less annual leave from work too!

probe

Su Campu wrote: »

Thanks for all the effort, but in the end the flight was cancelled. I called my booking agent and have rebooked for May 1st. That means the bank holiday, so one day less annual leave from work too!

If you can wait until May 1 you are better off staying put. All the ground transportation connections are a huge hassle. Even harder than connecting at LHR, which is saying something. Hope the wind blows from anywhere but the north on Mayday!

Su Campu

probe wrote: »

If you can wait until May 1 you are better off staying put. All the ground transportation connections are a huge hassle. Even harder than connecting at LHR, which is saying something. Hope the wind blows from anywhere but the north on Mayday!

It effin better! :mad:

probe

London has had similar plume cover to Paris today - ie negligible
(Exhibit A: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/DUST/WESTERNEUROPE/index.htm ).

CDG's four runways are busy. Heathrow's two runways are idle.

Bloomberg has an article on the stupidity:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adxnlwWSEPuU

Ironically the latest map produced by GB-met for tomorrow shows that airports north of London will be in the clear under their "model", while Heathrow is on the borderline from 12h00 UTC (13h00 in GB). Meanwhile the same maps shows that all Paris airports should be closed!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271785386.png

probe

Su Campu wrote: »

It effin better! :mad:

If you are looking for a good fairly strong southerly wind over IRL, GB and FR - go on Sunday (25th)! Mayday is too far away to forecast at this point...

probe

Wall Street Journal article:

Alaska Airlines has been dealing with Mount St Helens for decades:

"You've got to find a way to work around it," said Ken Williams, Alaska Airlines's fleet captain.

One unbendable rule: Alaska's planes never take off, fly or land in ash. It's just too dangerous. Even taxiing at an airport with ash on the ground can clog air-condition systems and take a plane out of service for 36 hours. But that doesn't mean you can't find safe sky for flight.

A collaboration of aviation and weather experts created computer models that predict the trajectory for volcanic ash in Alaska or elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest. Whenever there's an eruption, the airline scrambles off-duty pilots in empty airplanes—some in Alaska Airlines's Boeings and others in smaller private planes—to take temperature and wind measurements at various altitudes. The data help validate satellite projections and computer forecasts.

"The more data you have, the more surgical you can be," said Capt. Williams.

It doesn't always work, of course. If Alaska Airlines can't stay at least 35 miles away from ash, it doesn't fly. And if it's nighttime and pilots can't see or if the airline isn't sure of the actual winds aloft, it won't operate. Last year when Mount Redoubt erupted again in Alaska, the airline couldn't get its aircraft out of Anchorage early enough and ended up canceling flights and shrink-wrapping planes to keep ash from contaminating instruments and engines.

Full story: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704133804575198183757930998.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_RIGHTTopCarousel

Su Campu

probe wrote: »

London has had similar plume cover to Paris today - ie negligible
(Exhibit A: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/DUST/WESTERNEUROPE/index.htm ).

CDG's four runways are busy. Heathrow's two runways are idle.

Bloomberg has an article on the stupidity:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adxnlwWSEPuU

Ironically the latest map produced by GB-met for tomorrow shows that airports north of London will be in the clear under their "model", while Heathrow is on the borderline from 12h00 UTC (13h00 in GB). Meanwhile the same maps shows that all Paris airports should be closed!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271785386.png

Basically that chart is now redundant, null and void. The red line is supposed to outline the old threshold for engine tolerance; now that they've changed that, I don't know why they're even issuing it anymore, it's of no use to anyone. At least put in the new tolerance.

probe

Su Campu wrote: »

Basically that chart is now redundant, null and void. The red line is supposed to outline the old threshold for engine tolerance; now that they've changed that, I don't know why they're even issuing it anymore, it's of no use to anyone. At least put in the new tolerance.

Did they have any "old threshold"? :-)

I think they simply used a crap mathematical model (mistake # 1) to predict where dust particles of any size might have blown (mistake #2) to create FUD - which has probably cost Europe the best part of €5 billion between airlines, PAXs, lost human time, loss of infrastructure to transport goods etc.

They (Britain's CAA) have now put a number on "safe" - ie < 2,000 µg of volcano dust per m3 of air. German test flights found 40 µg/m3 in the air where they tested - which is typical of pollution levels over a large city without any local volcanic activity.

If their maps are to be useful, they need to show why 2,000 µg is a safe level (it could be higher or lower) and provide a scientific basis for same. If the engine manufacturer can get PL insurance from deep pockets (ie not AIG type credit default swap type cover please) for an engine with the 2,000 µg in its spec), one might be able to hang one's hat on their number - which would be progress.

Project # 2 is the modelling and sampling test to provide 3D maps of dust concentrations at various altitudes. The COSMOS, ALADIN and HIRLAM models need to be adapted for volcanic dust forecasting based on the location and estimated output intensity of a volcano. A network of laser beam based detectors could be installed at volcano risk sites across Europe to measure the latter - in the same way as one has anemometers reporting wind-speeds all over the planet, which feed data into the same computer models.

There is no excuse for delay. The consequential costs of not having the hard data (ie project # 2) in the event of a large volcano could be mind boggling with bureaucrats running around in CYA mode shutting down a quarter of the planet for no good quantifiable scientific reason.

probe

As Volcano Ebbs, Europe Seeks New Safety Rules:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704388304575202360047934070.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_MIDDLETopNews