The race for the 3rd HEC spot.

P_1

Surprised we haven't got a thread on this one yet.

Following tonight's events in Ravenhill and indeed the recent form of both Ulster and Connacht this has got somewhat interesting.

As things currently stand....

Ulster are in 8th place with 25 points, a points difference of -49, with 3 matches left to play - Glasgow away, Edinburgh away and Connacht home.

Connacht are in 10th place with 21 points, a points difference of -134, with 4 matches left to play - Munster home, Scarlets away, Leinster home and Ulster away.

I cannot see Ulster getting much out of their trips to Scotland, possibly 2 losing bonus points at best, which would leave them on 27 points going into the home match against Connacht.

Connacht may well get something out of Munster and Scarlets, possibly 2 losing bonus points and may well get the full 5 points against the Leinster Academy, which would leave them on 28 points going into the match away to Ulster.

Its looking very likely that Ulster v Connacht may well be a playoff for the last HEC spot.

Of course both can qualify if one of Leinster, Munster or Connacht win their respective European competitions. That is a big if however.

So who do ye think will be the 3rd Irish province in the HEC next year, Ulster or Connacht? Or possibly both?

dreamer_ire

Even before tonight's match I could see Connacht taking the 3rd spot. I think they have the easier run in of the two and Ulster have gone to hell since Christmas. For as long as Ulster insist on not starting iHump their game management is won't improve. There is a lack of leadership, despite Henry's best efforts and a complete lack of discipline on the pitch. On the other hand Connacht have built up considerable momentum. I think how Connacht's react to the outcome of their semi final is actually what will decide who gets the 3rd place.

Podge_irl

Considering Ospreys won tonight (which feckin lost me money) it must be said that Connacht are in with a fairly decent chance. By the time they face Leinster away Leinster will have top spot secured more than likely, and two trips away to Scotland are not ones you want to be trying to get points out of. It seemed awfully unlikely 4 weeks ago, but methinks that Connacht are in with a decent chance or getting past Ulster at this stage. Losing to an Ospreys team that was tired as hell from an aggressive encounter with Biarrirz only four days beforehand is indication enough from me that Ulster just do not have the cutting edge needed at the moment. That was an appalling game to lose.

[Jackass]

Connacht have a good chance, but the head to head will ruin them.

You have to question some of the Magners fixtures...

Leinster and Munster ALWAYS get a derby right before big Heineken Cup matches (hence getting the game intensity practice) and Ulster always get Connacht near the very end of the season...to prevent Connacht from sneaking in without relying on any one/thing else?? Or is that a grassy knoll concept?

I'd be excited as a Connacht fan...some very good avenues for Heineken Cup rugby next season...catch and surpass Ulster, Leinster or Munster to win the Heineken Cup, or Connacht to win the Amlin...

All are possible, so exciting times, I would love to see them finally get in.

I think the best bet is through a Leinster or Munster Heineken Cup win though if I'm honest.

thomond2006

I don't think Connacht will catch Ulster in the ML but I fancy an Irish province to win the HEC.

outwest

a win on sunday put us in prime possesion

Riskymove

thomond2006 wrote: »

I don't think Connacht will catch Ulster in the ML but I fancy an Irish province to win the HEC.

+1

in particualr I think Connacht's involvement in the Amlin will lead to them taking the eye of the last few Magner's games

I think its the lack of squad depth that will catch up with us in trying to juggle two competitions. Its a big game Sunday, both teams will probably give chances to a few fringe players. A win Sunday would give us a great chance but I don't think McGahan will take any risks after the defeat at the Sportsground last year

Zzippy

A win on Sunday would suddenly make things a lot more interesting. As it stands I still think Ulster will take it, can't remember the last time (if ever) Connacht won at Ravenhill, so if we are to qualify we will have to be 5/6 points clear of Ulster before that match. Also, they have only 3 games left, Connacht have 4 plus the Amlin semi, with a smaller squad so less chance to rest players.

And as I said before, if it looks like we might pip them, expect the Leinster match to be rescheduled for a midweek date sandwiched between the Amlin semi and the Ulster game, with Connacht having 3 days rest while Ulster will have 2 weeks.

Summary: Heart says Connacht, head says Ulster

Digifriendly

Zzippy wrote: »

A win on Sunday would suddenly make things a lot more interesting. As it stands I still think Ulster will take it, can't remember the last time (if ever) Connacht won at Ravenhill, so if we are to qualify we will have to be 5/6 points clear of Ulster before that match. Also, they have only 3 games left, Connacht have 4 plus the Amlin semi, with a smaller squad so less chance to rest players.

And as I said before, if it looks like we might pip them, expect the Leinster match to be rescheduled for a midweek date sandwiched between the Amlin semi and the Ulster game, with Connacht having 3 days rest while Ulster will have 2 weeks.

Summary: Heart says Connacht, head says Ulster

Last time Connacht won in Belfast was 1960 but remember this is one of the best Connacht sides in years. As an Ulster supporter I don't hesitate to say if Connacht make it into HC they fully deserve to be there. My own wish would be for all 4 provinces in HC but have to say that Ulster may have to depend on either Connacht winning the Amlin or Munster/Leinster winning the HC for this to happen.

[Jackass]

It's strange, Ulster did very well this season in the Heineken Cup, and dare I say it, maybe were a little bit unlucky not to qualify for the quarters?

It seems teams like Ulster and Cardiff just don't have the resources to compete on two fronts and hence the league form suffers.

In a head to head though, I don't really give Connacht much of a chance against Ulster, and that's why I think that game in Ravenhill will settle the matter from a Magners League point of view.

I just wish Connacht could get a nice run in for once, they always get stuck with this game at the end of the season.

It's still very possible they will be playing Heineken Cup rugby next season though.

durkadurka

[Jackass] wrote: »

It's strange, Ulster did very well this season in the Heineken Cup, and dare I say it, maybe were a little bit unlucky not to qualify for the quarters?

It seems teams like Ulster and Cardiff just don't have the resources to compete on two fronts and hence the league form suffers.

In a head to head though, I don't really give Connacht much of a chance against Ulster, and that's why I think that game in Ravenhill will settle the matter from a Magners League point of view.

I just wish Connacht could get a nice run in for once, they always get stuck with this game at the end of the season.

It's still very possible they will be playing Heineken Cup rugby next season though.

Hang on a second, ulsters form has gone to pot SINCE they got knocked out of the HEC, so its not fighting on 2 fronts that has killed them.

thomond2006

durkadurka wrote: »

Hang on a second, ulsters form has gone to pot SINCE they got knocked out of the HEC, so its not fighting on 2 fronts that has killed them.

Agreed what is it, one ML win in 2010?

ALH-06

[Jackass] wrote: »

I think the best bet is through a Leinster or Munster Heineken Cup win though if I'm honest.

So if this happens, Connacht will qualify for the HC? In that case, why haven't they qualified before, the above has happened 3 times in the last 4 years...?

thomond2006

ALH-06 wrote: »

So if this happens, Connacht will qualify for the HC? In that case, why haven't they qualified before, the above has happened 3 times in the last 4 years...?

The ERC changed the qualification rules this season.

It's not all good for Connacht, the Celtic-Italian playoff is gone.

greendom

Great to see Connacht in with a chance. The only shame is that it's not Leinster's or Munster's position at risk

Podge_irl

greendom wrote: »

Great to see Connacht in with a chance. The only shame is that it's not Leinster's or Munster's position at risk

Why, may I ask, is that a shame?

Jemo

thomond2006 wrote: »

The ERC changed the qualification rules this season.

It's not all good for Connacht, the Celtic-Italian playoff is gone.

I had been wondering the same about how they would qualify if Leinster or Munster won the HEC, I hadn't heard about these changes. I think it gives Connacht a good chance of qualifying more often though.

greendom

Podge_irl wrote: »

Why, may I ask, is that a shame?

Be good to give them a bit of a shake-up imo. In France and England, getting to play in the HC is an achievement, earned by playing well throughout the national league season. That's not quite the case here, is it?

durkadurka

But leinster and even more so munster are consistent high performers in europe. Its not like they dont justify their presence.
Munster always make the quarters, leinster usually do. They both regularly make the semis and have won 3 of the last 4.
Your point has no validity imo.

thomond2006

greendom wrote: »

Be good to give them a bit of a shake-up imo. In France and England, getting to play in the HC is an achievement, earned by playing well throughout the national league season. That's not quite the case here, is it?

Of course it's the case here, if Connacht finish above Ulster it's a mssive achievement and "earned by playing well throughout the national league season".

What's the point of a shake-up? We want the best teams competing in Europe every year.

durkadurka

thomond2006 wrote: »

Of course it's the case here, if Connacht finish above Ulster it's a mssive achievement and "earned by playing well throughout the national league season".

What's the point of a shake-up? We want the best teams competing in Europe every year.

+1. Plus leinster and munster have been dominating the magners of late too. They are the best provinces in ireland. Are you just wishing ill of them? because there is no factual basis for your assertions.

greendom

durkadurka wrote: »

+1. Plus leinster and munster have been dominating the magners of late too. They are the best provinces in ireland. Are you just wishing ill of them? because there is no factual basis for your assertions.

What assertions ?
Not disagreeing with any of that - just think that competition is a good thing, that's all.

Podge_irl

greendom wrote: »

What assertions ?
Not disagreeing with any of that - just think that competition is a good thing, that's all.

Of course competition is a good thing, but it's not exactly Leinster's fault that they've been consistently one of the best teams in the ML since it was founded. In fact, they've probably been the most consistently excellent team.

It's not as if Leinster and Munster are getting in no matter where they finish in the league (though one imagines some interesting questions would be asked where they not to qualify by right - a highly unlikely scenario though). Ultimately, the likes of Leicester and Toulouse qualify every year, and Leinster and Munster are just on the same level.

thomond2006

http://www.magnersleague.com/live

Ulster's losing BP is massive. With their points differential, Connacht must finish higher on points than Ulster, so in reality, Connacht are 6 points behind rather than 5.

thomond2006

Anyone else see Johnnie Beattie taking a last minute penalty for Glasgow (with Parks and Jackson off the field) right in front of the posts and nearly hitting the corner flag?

Connacht robbed. :mad::mad::mad:

f1dan

thomond2006 wrote: »

Anyone else see Johnnie Beattie taking a last minute penalty for Glasgow (with Parks and Jackson off the field) right in front of the posts and nearly hitting the corner flag?

Connacht robbed. :mad::mad::mad:

What???:eek:

<Heads over to Conspiracy Theory forum>

outwest

the way i see it glasgow should a lack of respect letting a forward take the pen.

if it was against munster a team in the top 4, a back who had a chance of getting the kick would of tooking it

irishbucsfan

outwest wrote: »

the way i see it glasgow should a lack of respect letting a forward take the pen.

if it was against munster a team in the top 4, a back who had a chance of getting the kick would of tooking it

John Eales wouldn't appreciate that.

Who says the backs are better? Our second row is a very good kicker.

toomevara

irishbucsfan wrote: »

John Eales wouldn't appreciate that.

Who says the backs are better? Our second row is a very good kicker.

Aint it the truth...check out zinzan brookes effort around 40 secs in, well known for it....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcpox0biD2g

outwest

say what u want them were the unprofessional days. the bp point may well help ulster get 3rdd hcup spot

Risteard

outwest wrote: »

say what u want them were the unprofessional days. the bp point may well help ulster get 3rdd hcup spot

Not really, John Eales took this massive pressure kick back in 2000 to win the Bledisloe Cup, just because someone's a back, doesn't mean they're a good kicker or automatically better than a forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcpasb1r_nY

outwest

beattle is a good player but to u think he was gonig to slot the pen,

either way im convident that come after the ulster connacht game. connacht will be ahead of ulster.

Risteard

outwest wrote: »

beattle is a good player but to u think he was gonig to slot the pen,

either way im convident that come after the ulster connacht game. connacht will be ahead of ulster.

I didn't see it but obviously if someone else felt they were better suited to kick then they would have taken it.

crisco10

Risteard wrote: »

I didn't see it but obviously if someone else felt they were better suited to kick then they would have taken it.

There is no doubt Beattie thought he had a shot (and more importantly, as a good chance as any of the XV on the pitch at that moment) at it when he took it on. They are a pro outfit and wouldn't take the p!ss like that.

thomond2006

Well this race is certainly more interesting now!

Ravenhill is set for a HEC play-off.

Podge_irl

thomond2006 wrote: »

Well this race is certainly more interesting now!

Ravenhill is set for a HEC play-off.

Have Connacht won away from home in the ML at all this season? If it comes down to the game in Ravenhill then you would have to put Ulster as favourites. We'll see how Connacht get on at the Scarlets before it becomes an issue though.

sock puppet

Podge_irl wrote: »

Have Connacht won away from home in the ML at all this season? If it comes down to the game in Ravenhill then you would have to put Ulster as favourites. We'll see how Connacht get on at the Scarlets before it becomes an issue though.

Depends on what sort of a team they send to the Scarlets too. With a strong team you'd expect a losing bonus point. If the Scarlets can put in a half decent performance then a win is out of the question.

Now lets just hope Munster and the Ospreys draw on Saturday so Cheika can rest players against Edinburgh.

thomond2006

Ulster have sealed a BP win against Edinburgh.

With the points differential, it means Connacht won't finish above them.

Digifriendly

thomond2006 wrote: »

Ulster have sealed a BP win against Edinburgh.

With the points differential, it means Connacht won't finish above them.

Worked out that Connacht need to win by 65 points at Ravenhill to get into HEC through ML!

WallyGUFC

Just to clarify. If Leinster or Munster win the HC, Connacht and Ulster qualify? Because to be honest, I really cannot see Connacht winning in Ravenhill by 65 points...

thomond2006

WallyGUFC wrote: »

Just to clarify. If Leinster or Munster win the HC, Connacht and Ulster qualify? Because to be honest, I really cannot see Connacht winning in Ravenhill by 65 points...

Yes on both counts.

Morf

WallyGUFC wrote: »

Just to clarify. If Leinster or Munster win the HC, Connacht and Ulster qualify? Because to be honest, I really cannot see Connacht winning in Ravenhill by 65 points...

Or if Connacht win the Amlin Cup.

Zzippy

Digifriendly wrote: »

Worked out that Connacht need to win by 65 points at Ravenhill to get into HEC through ML!

No problem, we can rest Fionn Carr if thats all we need!