What Is The Real Rate Of Unemployment?

who_ru

Hi all,

We are told by Govt Ministers & Dept of Finance officials that the "growth" in unemployment is bottoming out - doesn't it seem like everything is bottoming out with this Govt?, and that we can expect a small % increase in the rate of GNP early 2011.

now my own feeling is that high unemployment will be with us for a decade at least if not longer because we churned out so many young people over the last decade from schools without too many qualifications, and whose employment prospects look bleak in the absence of the construction "boom" we had. i also suspect that a few more multi-nationals may leave our shores in the years ahead (intel?), and seeing as i work on one of these companies this doesn't bode well for me either.

so the official rate of unemployment is 13.4%
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-Rate.aspx?Symbol=IEP

but what is the true figure? if we include all those self-employed people who are out of work but are unable to claim unemployment benefit what might the figure be?

or all those on FAS courses that are technically unemployed but not included in the official figure.

what do you think the real true % rate of unemployment is? could it be as high as 16% or 17%?

Dannyboy83

I think 40,000 sole traders have ceased business since Cowen became Taoiseach

Unemployment rate of 13.2%
185,000 full time students in Ireland iirc
Not sure about Fas numbers.

I reckon the true figure is not far off Spain

NUIG_FiannaFail

The real rate is less than 10%. This is when you take out the 4% or 5% who don't want to work at all and are happy to sponge off entrepreneurs like Sean Quinn and Michael O'Leary.

amacachi

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I think 40,000 sole traders have ceased business since Cowen became Taoiseach

Unemployment rate of 13.2%
185,000 full time students in Ireland iirc
Not sure about Fas numbers.

I reckon the true figure is not far off Spain

Do the Spanish include students in their unemployment figures?

Dannyboy83

amacachi wrote: »

Do the Spanish include students in their unemployment figures?

AFAIK, yes. I am open to correction.

However, I think Spain has a bad problem with people working 'off the books'.

Dannyboy83

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

The real rate is less than 10%. This is when you take out the 4% or 5% who don't want to work at all and are happy to sponge off entrepreneurs like Sean Quinn and Michael O'Leary.

There is indeed a problem with the 'long term leeches' which is a result of the current government's failure, but I'd rather not to go into it and derail another thread just to bash FF.
Everyone knows the reasons by now.

danbohan

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

There is indeed a problem with the 'long term leeches' which is a result of the current government's failure, but I'd rather not to go into it and derail another thread just to bash FF.
Everyone knows the reasons by now.

we had 175000 unemployed in 2006 / 2007 , id say you need to subtract that number from the 4300000 , then add 40000 + sole traders/ self employed , then you might be getting close to real number of unemployed not the inflated figure that includes the unemployable ie the leaches

Nolanger

It's higher because:

• some people who were on Jobseekers Benefit have had their credits run out and don't qualify for Jobseekers Allowance because their partner is still working
  
• people are emigrating resulting in their dole claim getting closed
  
• immigrants are returning home resulting in their dole claim getting closed
  
• there are people who were on Jobseekers who cannot work (such as drug addicts) and have switched to Disability Allowance
  
• self-employed people whose business close cannot qualify for Jobseekers Benefit
  
• there are some unemployed people who haven't yet signed on as they want to find another job quickly and are surviving on their savings
  
• there are probably students who have quit their course but are barred from signing on until the next academic year starts in September

johnhargrove

Nolanger wrote: »

It's higher because:

• some people who were on Jobseekers Benefit have had their credits run out and don't qualify for Jobseekers Allowance because their partner is still working
• people are emigrating resulting in their dole claim getting closed
• immigrants are returning home resulting in their dole claim getting closed
• there are people who were on Jobseekers who cannot work (such as drug addicts) and have switched to Disability Allowance
• self-employed people whose business close cannot qualify for Jobseekers Benefit
• there are some unemployed people who haven't yet signed on as they want to find another job quickly and are surviving on their savings
• there are probably students who have quit their course but are barred from signing on until the next academic year starts in September

Added to the above,
- there's many people I know under 25 and living at home, who aren't entitled to the dole, as they are means tested, and due to this some don't even bother applying.
- even in this huge economic downturn, I know quite a few young people who have that old attitude that the dole is beneath them, and they would be too ashamed to claim, while mommy and daddy support them. These folk are seeking employment, but not included in the unemployment rate
- Many people including myself went back to college due to unemployment, to upskill oneself. For that year in college one would not be considered 'unemployed'. Huge amounts of people are doing Masters these days.
- Apart from those gone to UK, Canada, Oz, NZ, how many people does the average Irish something know who has gone 'travelling' for the year?

I would guess the 'real' figure is somewhere around 20%

Riskymove

johnhargrove wrote: »

I would guess the 'real' figure is somewhere around 20%

hmm....20% of what...it certainly is not easy


Unemployment is based the numbers in the workforce afaik not population

if there a cohort of people not being idenitiifed as unemployed but also not being identified as being in the workforce, including them in both would cancel out one another to a point...indeed you could actually reduce the %

emigrating removes oneself from the workforce too etc

johnhargrove

Riskymove wrote: »

hmm....20% of what...it certainly is not easy


Unemployment is based the numbers in the workforce afaik not population

if there a cohort of people not being idenitiifed as unemployed but also not being identified as being in the workforce, including them in both would cancel out one another to a point...indeed you could actually reduce the %

emigrating removes oneself from the workforce too etc

ya we know

cson

Riskymove wrote: »

hmm....20% of what...it certainly is not easy

It's a percentage of your labour market; the labour market being those aged between 18 and 65 who are available and able to work. In Ireland afaik that figure lies somewhere around 2m - 2.5m. The career dolers should cancel out the self employed unable to claim et al thus I'd imagine the real figure is broadly in line with the publicised 13.2% though I'd imagine it could be as high as 15%.

oppenheimer1

johnhargrove wrote: »

Added to the above,
- there's many people I know under 25 and living at home, who aren't entitled to the dole, as they are means tested, and due to this some don't even bother applying.
- even in this huge economic downturn, I know quite a few young people who have that old attitude that the dole is beneath them, and they would be too ashamed to claim, while mommy and daddy support them. These folk are seeking employment, but not included in the unemployment rate
- Many people including myself went back to college due to unemployment, to upskill oneself. For that year in college one would not be considered 'unemployed'. Huge amounts of people are doing Masters these days.
- Apart from those gone to UK, Canada, Oz, NZ, how many people does the average Irish something know who has gone 'travelling' for the year?

I would guess the 'real' figure is somewhere around 20%

the unemployment rate is around 11% as indicated by the last QNHS. People are getting confused with the live register which includes those who are on benefits due to being on part or short time.

SugarHigh

cson wrote: »

It's a percentage of your labour market; the labour market being those aged between 18 and 65 who are available and able to work. In Ireland afaik that figure lies somewhere around 2m - 2.5m. The career dolers should cancel out the self employed unable to claim et al thus I'd imagine the real figure is broadly in line with the publicised 13.2% though I'd imagine it could be as high as 15%.

I don't understand how you think a career doler can cancel out anything.? They are still unemployed do they why wouldn't they add to the unemployment figures?

thebaldsoprano

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

This is when you take out the 4% or 5% who don't want to work at all and are happy to sponge off entrepreneurs like Sean Quinn and Michael O'Leary.

Actually, assuming all long term unemployed don't want to work, that would be more like 1.2% of the workforce according to this QNHS from 2007, when there were plenty of jobs.

Unfortunately though, there are no longer plenty of jobs and recent events have shown that the Government has little interest in helping entrepreneurs like MOL create them.

SeaFields

Not sure if this can be counted into the discussion but there is also a lot of qualified people working in low skilled jobs like retail and bar work.

In my place of work there are 4 of us (was 5 but one has since emigrated) on less than 20 hours a week all of whom graduated in the last 12 months. Situations like this don't show up on official statistics but, I believe, its still a poor reflection on the economy.

noodler

Unemployment is 12.9 for the first quarter of this year according to the CSO's Quarterly National Household Survey.

The figures we are using for 13+% come from the Live Register which is not the official measure of unemployment for a number of reasons.

That being said, I'd still fully expect an increase in the second quarter when the next set of QNHS figures are released.

The ESRI's Spring QEC (i.e. not the one that just came out) measured highered rates of unemployment on the basis that people were 'disheartened' etc which brought it up to 17/18%.

Mister men

20-25%

danbohan

SeaFields wrote: »

Not sure if this can be counted into the discussion but there is also a lot of qualified people working in low skilled jobs like retail and bar work.

In my place of work there are 4 of us (was 5 but one has since emigrated) on less than 20 hours a week all of whom graduated in the last 12 months. Situations like this don't show up on official statistics but, I believe, its still a poor reflection on the economy.

yes thats the really bad side of the economy , half jobs , i wonder what the unemployment rate would be if they were taken into account , you and your friends are in the waiting room , waiting for an uptake in the economy that wont happen , i think it will be 2012 2013 before we see the mass exodus from here , in the 80s things were bad in 83 84 etc but it really was 86 86 87 before mass emigration took place , irish people do want to live in ireland unfortunatley many will not be able to .

RichardAnd

SeaFields wrote: »

Not sure if this can be counted into the discussion but there is also a lot of qualified people working in low skilled jobs like retail and bar work.

In my place of work there are 4 of us (was 5 but one has since emigrated) on less than 20 hours a week all of whom graduated in the last 12 months. Situations like this don't show up on official statistics but, I believe, its still a poor reflection on the economy.

Things like this show just how little a degree actually means when it comes to getting a job. I asked my boss recently why he choose to hire me and he said it was all down to my experience (I had over 4 years of work experience out of college) and that he hardly paid attention to my degree. I'm happy for the job but I can't help but feel that my 4 years in DCU were 4 years I could have used better

johnnyskeleton

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

The real rate is less than 10%. This is when you take out the 4% or 5% who don't want to work at all and are happy to sponge off entrepreneurs like Sean Quinn and Michael O'Leary.

The reason why full employment is considered to be an unemployment rate of 4/5% is not, as I understand it, because that is the number of spongers. It is because even in an economy where everyone wants to work and there are jobs available, there will always be people changing jobs, extending maternity leave, setting up businesses, going back to college etc etc as well as those people who are unfortunately unemployable. There would no doubt be some people who simply refuse to work, but that is not to say that about 4/5% of people are spongers.

thebman

RichardAnd wrote: »

Things like this show just how little a degree actually means when it comes to getting a job. I asked my boss recently why he choose to hire me and he said it was all down to my experience (I had over 4 years of work experience out of college) and that he hardly paid attention to my degree. I'm happy for the job but I can't help but feel that my 4 years in DCU were 4 years I could have used better

Depends if the degree is relevant to the job but generally if you don't have the degree, they won't look at your experience.

It is a checkbox they assume every applicant will have, they don't really care what degree you did but that you did one. Once you have the experience, it is more important than the degree but for your first job especially, your degree and what was done in it was a factor in getting the job.

SeaFields

RichardAnd wrote: »

Things like this show just how little a degree actually means when it comes to getting a job. I asked my boss recently why he choose to hire me and he said it was all down to my experience (I had over 4 years of work experience out of college) and that he hardly paid attention to my degree. I'm happy for the job but I can't help but feel that my 4 years in DCU were 4 years I could have used better

But how did you happen to get your first job to gain that 4 years? Was it an entry level job where the quality of the degree is the benchmark?

These entry level jobs aren't out there any more unfortunately which leads to the situation I describe in my first post above (as well as unemployment and emigration obviously). Hopefully things will get better soon.

RichardAnd

SeaFields wrote: »

But how did you happen to get your first job to gain that 4 years? Was it an entry level job where the quality of the degree is the benchmark?

These entry level jobs aren't out there any more unfortunately which leads to the situation I describe in my first post above (as well as unemployment and emigration obviously). Hopefully things will get better soon.

My experience came from several different jobs, none of which were entry level. My 4 years is the combination of legal work, tutoring for my college, self employment and an internship with a software company. I got them through past experience, ability and luck, same as how most other people get a job.

Funny thing about this is that I worked every summer out of college for 40-50 hours a week every year. My friends told me I should be enjoying the summer rather than working but if I'd listened to them, I wouldn't be employed now.

the_syco

danbohan wrote: »

i think it will be 2012 2013 before we see the mass exodus from here , in the 80s things were bad in 83 84 etc but it really was 86 86 87 before mass emigration took place , irish people do want to live in ireland unfortunatley many will not be able to .

Mass exodus to where? Everywhere is pretty f**ked, so there is no America to emigrate to.

RichardAnd

the_syco wrote: »

Mass exodus to where? Everywhere is pretty f**ked, so there is no America to emigrate to.

Well recently it was postulated that 120-150k people will leave Ireland in the next few years. That's not really many people and there is a whole world out there to go to, everywhere is not f**ked. Alot of tradesmen are going to Australia for example as there is a lot of building going on there right now. Let's hope their building boom is unlike our own.