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Why don't we leave the EU? Join the Swiss in EFTA

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  • 07-04-2010 11:16pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭


    This is serious, What is wrong with the Ireland of Today?

    Our loyalty to Europe has been taken for granted by Brussels and I doubt we have our interests represented now in the EU; Is there anyone else who feels cheated?

    We were bullied into voting again on the Unfair Lisbon Treaty... Where are these Jobs and Recovery we were promised?

    The Euro rate of exchange is too strong for Irish Exports to Grow... Everything here apart from fuel is at least 10% more expensive than in the North or Britain. Why are we holding onto a currency we have no control over?

    Ireland has very little idigenous Industry... Our entire Economic Power relies on the UK & America whom we trade with on a higher level than our EU Neighbours. We cannot compete because we are too expensive to purchase goods & services from but we are importing like crazy! Why has no-one realised?

    The EU bans us from actively controlling our Immigration Rates... The number of people that have arrived here since the early 90's is equal to half a century's worth of people that arrived in France. Jobs are very Scarce for our own Citizens, why can't we restrict the number and help prevent Emigration?

    Our Natural Resources have been exploited dreadfully... We have Oil off the Coast of Mayo and Galway which could benefit the country and its people but Shell has exclusive use of this. Spain has been raiding our Fisheries for Years with EU Protection, why can't we tell these people to Get Lost?

    Most of our Laws are now distated to us from Brussels and are policies we have had no democratic voice in influencing, this to me is very wrong and sinister. Why does all this bureaucracy have to be obeyed when we don't agree with alot of the ideas?

    I think we need a change that is better for us and a recovery.

    The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) Allows:
    • Member States to Protect and Exclusively Maintain their own Natural Resources
    • Adopt and Veto EU Legislation of their choosing without External Authority
    • Trade, Travel and Working Rights Throughout EFTA/EU States without Restriction under EEA/Bilateral Aggreements
    • Exclusive Business Relationships with External Countries and Trade Blocs without Barriers
    • Each Member State to contral and Maintain their own currency & Interest Rates
    • Trade Only Relations.... Not Political Power Grabbing
    http://www.efta.int/about-efta/history.aspx

    Alot of EU Nations were once EFTA Members


    So There We have it:

    We cannot Devalue to boost exports like in 1992, because we got rid of the Punt and our own interest rates.

    We cannot build a strong idigenous business base or use our natural resources for our own benefit, because that is seen as Anti-Competitive.

    We have no control over laws that we wish to veto or prevent from being ratified, because our soverignty is weakened or no longer existant.

    Our Immigration Policy is a joke, thousands of non-nationals can legally arrive in Ireland and work without having the ability to speak English and or Irish.


    Please Discuss
    Tagged:


«13456725

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,199 ✭✭✭twinQuins


    Do we have abundant natural resources or an international banking system? Do we have anything that would allow us to survive in the EFTA?

    Ask yourself that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,419 ✭✭✭Cool Mo D


    DaBrow wrote: »

    The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) Allows:
    • Member States to Protect and Exclusively Maintain their own Natural Resources
    • Adopt and Veto EU Legislation of their choosing without External Authority
    • Trade, Travel and Working Rights Throughout EFTA/EU States without Restriction under EEA/Bilateral Aggreements
    • Exclusive Business Relationships with External Countries and Trade Blocs without Barriers
    • Each Member State to contral and Maintain their own currency & Interest Rates
    • Trade Only Relations.... Not Political Power Grabbing
    http://www.efta.int/about-efta/history.aspx

    [*]Member States to Protect and Exclusively Maintain their own Natural Resources
    How does Ireland not have this right?

    [*]Adopt and Veto EU Legislation of their choosing without External Authority
    False.

    [*]Trade, Travel and Working Rights Throughout EFTA/EU States without Restriction under EEA/Bilateral Aggreements
    So you're saying that Ireland's immigration system would remain the same in the EFTA then?

    [*]Exclusive Business Relationships with External Countries and Trade Blocs without Barriers
    How does the EU stop this now?

    [*]Each Member State to contral and Maintain their own currency & Interest Rates
    So can EU member states - how many currencies exist in the EU now?

    [*]Trade Only Relations.... Not Political Power Grabbing
    Trade and politics are not separate - they are deeply linked.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 391 ✭✭BetterLisbon


    Cool Mo D wrote: »
    [*]Member States to Protect and Exclusively Maintain their own Natural Resources
    How does Ireland not have this right?
    [*]Adopt and Veto EU Legislation of their choosing without External Authority
    False.
    [*]Trade, Travel and Working Rights Throughout EFTA/EU States without Restriction under EEA/Bilateral Aggreements
    So you're saying that Ireland's immigration system would remain the same in the EFTA then?
    [*]Exclusive Business Relationships with External Countries and Trade Blocs without Barriers
    How does the EU stop this now?
    [*]Each Member State to contral and Maintain their own currency & Interest Rates
    So can EU member states - how many currencies exist in the EU now?
    [*]Trade Only Relations.... Not Political Power Grabbing
    Trade and politics are not separate - they are deeply linked.

    *We gave up our fisheries to join the EEC. In EFTA we can keep them.
    *The EEA agreement contains an emergency opt-out mechanism.
    *In EFTA we could restrict the free movement of people but with reciprocal effect.
    *EFTA has no common commercial policy.
    *True.
    *Opinion.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 391 ✭✭BetterLisbon


    DaBrow wrote: »
    This is serious, What is wrong with the Ireland of Today?

    Our loyalty to Europe has been taken for granted by Brussels and I doubt we have our interests represented now in the EU; Is there anyone else who feels cheated?

    We were bullied into voting again on the Unfair Lisbon Treaty... Where are these Jobs and Recovery we were promised?

    The Euro rate of exchange is too strong for Irish Exports to Grow... Everything here apart from fuel is at least 10% more expensive than in the North or Britain. Why are we holding onto a currency we have no control over?

    Ireland has very little idigenous Industry... Our entire Economic Power relies on the UK & America whom we trade with on a higher level than our EU Neighbours. We cannot compete because we are too expensive to purchase goods & services from but we are importing like crazy! Why has no-one realised?

    The EU bans us from actively controlling our Immigration Rates... The number of people that have arrived here since the early 90's is equal to half a century's worth of people that arrived in France. Jobs are very Scarce for our own Citizens, why can't we restrict the number and help prevent Emigration?

    Our Natural Resources have been exploited dreadfully... We have Oil off the Coast of Mayo and Galway which could benefit the country and its people but Shell has exclusive use of this. Spain has been raiding our Fisheries for Years with EU Protection, why can't we tell these people to Get Lost?

    Most of our Laws are now distated to us from Brussels and are policies we have had no democratic voice in influencing, this to me is very wrong and sinister. Why does all this bureaucracy have to be obeyed when we don't agree with alot of the ideas?

    I think we need a change that is better for us and a recovery.

    The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) Allows:
    • Member States to Protect and Exclusively Maintain their own Natural Resources
    • Adopt and Veto EU Legislation of their choosing without External Authority
    • Trade, Travel and Working Rights Throughout EFTA/EU States without Restriction under EEA/Bilateral Aggreements
    • Exclusive Business Relationships with External Countries and Trade Blocs without Barriers
    • Each Member State to contral and Maintain their own currency & Interest Rates
    • Trade Only Relations.... Not Political Power Grabbing
    http://www.efta.int/about-efta/history.aspx

    Alot of EU Nations were once EFTA Members


    So There We have it:

    We cannot Devalue to boost exports like in 1992, because we got rid of the Punt and our own interest rates.

    We cannot build a strong idigenous business base or use our natural resources for our own benefit, because that is seen as Anti-Competitive.

    We have no control over laws that we wish to veto or prevent from being ratified, because our soverignty is weakened or no longer existant.

    Our Immigration Policy is a joke, thousands of non-nationals can legally arrive in Ireland and work without having the ability to speak English and or Irish.


    Please Discuss

    The EEC/EC/EU is/was a means of getting things done that cant/couldnt pass leinster house or a referendum. It is a scapegoat for tough decisions or avoiding a decision. It provides politicians with plum jobs and sweeteners to buy elections.
    EFTA on the other hand does not.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow


    Morkarleth wrote: »
    Do we have abundant natural resources or an international banking system? Do we have anything that would allow us to survive in the EFTA?

    Ask yourself that.

    Yes, we do.

    We have natural Gas in the Corrib which is being exploited by multinational companies... Irish People get no benefit from this and these companies pay little tax.

    Ireland has a huge coastline and we could safeguard our fisheries by leaving the EU... We could tell the Neighbours to ask permission or get lost.

    Ireland has a Diaspora of over 60 Million People, many still have strong cultural & ancestral ties to this country... Highly Intelligent-Skilled, Well-Educated and Very Wealthy Individuals who could turn this country around if we scrapped the stupid Limit of Generational Eligibility. Look at Italy, Greece, Germany and a few other Countries that have decent Jus Sanguinis Laws that enable their descendants to come home.



    Ireland also was for years a great tourist destination... Until we became too expensive and decided money valued more than culture. This has lead to the industry going down the toilet.

    We have our stengths too I might add!!!
    The EEC/EC/EU is/was a means of getting things done that cant/couldnt pass leinster house or a referendum. It is a scapegoat for tough decisions or avoiding a decision. It provides politicians with plum jobs and sweeteners to buy elections.
    EFTA on the other hand does not.


    I think we should demand this... It sounds better and It makes ourselves Self-Sufficient.

    That would get out of the mess we have found ourselves in.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 19,777 ✭✭✭✭The Corinthian


    DaBrow wrote: »
    We were bullied into voting again on the Unfair Lisbon Treaty... Where are these Jobs and Recovery we were promised?
    What jobs and recovery was promised? I think many who voted in favour of the treaty, did so not on the basis of some fabled improvement in the economy, but that voting against (and further alienating the rest of the EU) would actually aggravate the recession.
    The Euro rate of exchange is too strong for Irish Exports to Grow... Everything here apart from fuel is at least 10% more expensive than in the North or Britain. Why are we holding onto a currency we have no control over?
    Because we do most of our trade with the Eurozone nations (Irish-UK trade has decreased dramatically in the last thirty years) and adoption of the Euro is a definate advantage in that regard.

    Additionally, what would we return to? Unless you hadn't realized we only had control over our own currency for about ten years in the entire existence of the state - we were tied to the sterling for the vast majority of the time.
    Ireland has very little idigenous Industry... Our entire Economic Power relies on the UK & America whom we trade with on a higher level than our EU Neighbours. We cannot compete because we are too expensive to purchase goods & services from but we are importing like crazy! Why has no-one realised?
    How would this change if we left the EU? We could reintroduce the protectionist policies that kept us an impoverished nation up to the nineties?

    Assuming we could even do that, as EFTA membership would require that we follow EU directives on trade regardless.
    The EU bans us from actively controlling our Immigration Rates... The number of people that have arrived here since the early 90's is equal to half a century's worth of people that arrived in France. Jobs are very Scarce for our own Citizens, why can't we restrict the number and help prevent Emigration?
    I'm afraid that under EFTA, the rules on immigration would not change.
    Our Natural Resources have been exploited dreadfully... We have Oil off the Coast of Mayo and Galway which could benefit the country and its people but Shell has exclusive use of this.
    How is this the EU's fault?
    Spain has been raiding our Fisheries for Years with EU Protection, why can't we tell these people to Get Lost?
    Actually, we traded our fisheries for better agricultural subsidies.
    Most of our Laws are now distated to us from Brussels and are policies we have had no democratic voice in influencing, this to me is very wrong and sinister. Why does all this bureaucracy have to be obeyed when we don't agree with alot of the ideas?
    Under EFTA this would not change.
    Alot of EU Nations were once EFTA Members
    And now they're not - so you really have to ask why this is the case, rather than ape something that they've rejected.

    Even the few countries that remain in EFTA are slowly coming to the realization that there is no escaping EU membership in the long run as they are effectively already in (in terms of EU directed legislation that the must implement) without actually having a say.
    We cannot Devalue to boost exports like in 1992, because we got rid of the Punt and our own interest rates.
    You do understand that we are not in any economic position to create a viable currency?
    We cannot build a strong idigenous business base or use our natural resources for our own benefit, because that is seen as Anti-Competitive.
    In or out of the EU it would still be seen as anti-competitive, the difference now is that other EU states cannot slap tariffs and quotas on our exports - in a trade war between Ireland and the UK, who do you think would come out tops?
    We have no control over laws that we wish to veto or prevent from being ratified, because our soverignty is weakened or no longer existant.
    Sovereignty is of limited value when you're a small fish in a big pond.
    Our Immigration Policy is a joke, thousands of non-nationals can legally arrive in Ireland and work without having the ability to speak English and or Irish.
    Irish? LOL.

    Ireland is not Switzerland. Not even close. I suggest you dispel that fantasy quickly. I also don't think you understand what EFTA membership actually entails.

    What age are you?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow


    What jobs and recovery was promised? I think many who voted in favour of the treaty, did so not on the basis of some fabled improvement in the economy, but that voting against (and further alienating the rest of the EU) would actually aggravate the recession.

    http://www.fiannafail.ie/page/-/images/feature/blenihan_20sept09_600.jpg

    The EU Commission and Irish Political Parties bullied people into voting for a Treaty that they did not want, Democracy no longer exists in the bloc
    Because we do most of our trade with the Eurozone nations (Irish-UK trade has decreased dramatically in the last thirty years) and adoption of the Euro is a definate advantage in that regard.

    Nope....

    Most of our Trade is with Britain and America after all these years, we have very little export trade with other EU States.

    "Main export partners UK 18.6%, US 18.3%"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland
    Additionally, what would we return to? Unless you hadn't realized we only had control over our own currency for about ten years in the entire existence of the state - we were tied to the sterling for the vast majority of the time.
    It worked though didn't it?

    If we were tied to sterling now with the punt, we would be able to boost our exports and get out of recession... Thanks to the Euro we cannot do anything with this currency crisis.

    Britain is recovering because they kept the pound, a wise decision which is why companies are still operating within the UK...

    Halifax Bank in Ireland is leaving because Ireland is still very unstable and I believe they are leaving Spain too..

    So Much for the Euro being a currency you can operate within Business.
    How would this change if we left the EU? We could reintroduce the protectionist policies that kept us an impoverished nation up to the nineties?
    Ireland was improverished because we allowed hundred of thousands of our brightest and best to emigrate, this is happening again and will continue until we have a government that abandons out-dated and stupid red tape legislation that prevents business.

    My Mum and Dad left here in the 80's because the Health Service was Neglected, like it has always been and since Irish staff left during bad times... They were replaced by Foreign Nationals in Good Times.

    Irish Medical Grads can't get Jobs in Irish Hospitals... EU Law means we have pressure to employ Foreign Nationals first and cannot recruit our own people with ease because that is discriminatory. EFTA States allow opportunities for their own people
    Assuming we could even do that, as EFTA membership would require that we follow EU directives on trade regardless.


    I'm afraid that under EFTA, the rules on immigration would not change.
    [/QUOTE]
    Wrong...

    EFTA States have considerable power to restrict or free-up immigration.

    EFTA States have no external Authority to answer to in europe and could easily bar individuals or expel those we believe are a drain on the country, because of the EU's direction you cannot even get rid of false Asylum Seekers when you go they are guilty as Sin of Lying about their status.

    They can take their case to the European Court of Human Rights who EU Members dare not oppose, EFTA can just send them on their way wothout having to drag out an expensive fight in a Court that doesn't represent or sympathise with their own jurisdiction.
    How is this the EU's fault?
    The EU forbids its members from benefitting from their own natural resources, that is why the spanish have been stealing our fish for years.

    Pretty Obvious I would think.
    Actually, we traded our fisheries for better agricultural subsidies.
    Well. that's wonderful now isn't it that all the farmers here in Ireland are on the breadline and can't sell their produce?

    My Uncle who is a Doctor in Laois has confirmed that Farmer's are losing their homes and produce because the EU CAP is considerably less than it once was and the French and German Farmers get more than other member countries.

    We would have the same potential as Norway if we had our fisheries, they have posession of theirs and it has made them very strong in that field aswell as Timber and Hydro-power... Not to mention Oil.
    Under EFTA this would not change.
    Yes, it would. EFTA has no external authority and they can over-ride aspects of EU Legislation, they have to pay into the EU and have little influence but they have power over the European Economic Area.

    Norway has repeatedly blocked legislation from the EU it doesn't agree with anf they haven't been penalised... They can continue to Trade with relative ease in the EU. They are also part of schengen which allows freedom of travel into their country from an EU/EFTA State.
    And now they're not - so you really have to ask why this is the case, rather than ape something that they've rejected.
    I can certainly tell you that the EU back in the 90's wasn't as power grabbing or bullying as it is now. Back then it was better than EFTA because it was about Trade and Travel, but since countries have been pressurised to join the Euro and abandon alot of their soverignty.

    People are now very angered, the Czech Republic being one where President Vaclav Klaus actually showed a spine and put his people before his own interests in saying he did not want to sign a document he believed would surrender Czech Land/Soverignty to anyone.
    Even the few countries that remain in EFTA are slowly coming to the realization that there is no escaping EU membership in the long run as they are effectively already in (in terms of EU directed legislation that the must implement) without actually having a say.
    The EU will implode, it is only a matter of time. The Euro has been a disaster and millions across europe are getting very angry that they cannot keep their jobs, homes or even live normally because they were forced to use a currency they didn't want in the first place.... It is causing carnage

    If you think people are wanting this to continue... You need to look further than Ireland.

    Look at Greece, I bet you think the EU is very popular there right now? Greece will Default, but Spain will certainly implode with it's 20% unemployment and Civil War MKII could BreakOut because Zapatero wrecked the country in just over 6 years.

    Portugal has lost its Financial AAA Status, Friends of Mine from Italy are on the breadline because they cannot sell their goods or attract tourists because prices are too high for tourists!

    Ireland has been a rip-off for Years! Everything we sell is at least 10-40% more expensive than buying it in the UK, so how can you say our situation is favourable?

    Britiain is only still in the EU because they have not had a referendum, they would certainly leave along with Denmark and Czech Republic...

    Only a matter of time

    You do understand that we are not in any economic position to create a viable currency?
    Neither is Greece, but If you have forgotten already. Societé Generale announced in Feb that the Euro will collapse eventually and back in December, Bloomberg announced that they see Ireland and Greece either abandoning the Euro or being forced out by this Year.

    All the PIIGS Nations are economically incapable of holding onto this currency, because we no longer have the conditions to use it.

    We will leave either by choice of force.
    In or out of the EU it would still be seen as anti-competitive, the difference now is that other EU states cannot slap tariffs and quotas on our exports - in a trade war between Ireland and the UK, who do you think would come out tops?
    Norway and Switzerland along with Liechenstein & Iceland can manage without EU Membership...

    Iceland may have had an implosion but they are recovering alot faster than ourselves, the government may have applied for EU Membership but the icelandic people are vehemently opposed to it because they like independence and do not want to give up their fisheries.

    Ireland can come-out tops if we left the EU... Our own currency, Interest Rates and Improved Jus-Sanguinis Law could make the place like the UAE for Ancestral Workers.

    Diaspora Banking is what we can do or Investment
    Sovereignty is of limited value when you're a small fish in a big pond.
    So You're willing to sellout your own country and its people for money? Poor choice of words there, while you're at it you might aswell say our fight independence was a joke and we should still be licking the dirt off Britain's boots?

    Incredible... A Nation without an identity and rule from its own people is a nation without a soul.
    Irish? LOL.
    At least 20,000 Americans of Irish Descent speak Irish as their first language in their homes, you will find this on either WikiPedia or on their census... Another 5,000 in the country to the North and other large numbers elsewhere in South America like Argentina where there is a strong diaspora.

    I find it offensive that you insult our Native Language
    Ireland is not Switzerland. Not even close. I suggest you dispel that fantasy quickly. I also don't think you understand what EFTA membership actually entails.
    It's people like you who are content with the rut we are stuck in that dispel this idea, Ireland has the potential but until we kick out the gombeenism civil war mentality that has prevented this country from being strong and self-sufficient.

    I know what EFTA membership entails, I've read into it and it is basically the perks of EU Membership without the Baggage or the Red-tape that members obey.

    Swiss Products and services are plentiful in Ireland, they and the Norwegians have refused EU membership repeatedly for years because they value their independence... Good for them!!!
    What age are you?
    Older than you it appears and more broad-minded, Anyone who thinks we should obey the EU without question and there is nothing else should look up EFTA rather than shrug it off


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow


    "The Euro Breakup Will Be THE Story Of 2010, As Analyst Expects Ireland And Greece To Leave The Union"

    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-euro-breakup-may-be-the-story-of-2010-as-analyst-expects-ireland-and-greece-to-leave-the-union-2009-12

    Collapse of Euro is ‘inevitable’ warns French banking chief

    "The European single currency is facing an ‘inevitable break-up’ a leading French bank claimed yesterday. Strategists at Paris-based Société Générale said that any bailout of the stricken Greek economy would only provide ’sticking plasters’ to cover the deep- seated flaws in the eurozone bloc."


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    DaBrow wrote: »
    "The Euro Breakup Will Be THE Story Of 2010, As Analyst Expects Ireland And Greece To Leave The Union"

    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-euro-breakup-may-be-the-story-of-2010-as-analyst-expects-ireland-and-greece-to-leave-the-union-2009-12

    Collapse of Euro is ‘inevitable’ warns French banking chief

    "The European single currency is facing an ‘inevitable break-up’ a leading French bank claimed yesterday. Strategists at Paris-based Société Générale said that any bailout of the stricken Greek economy would only provide ’sticking plasters’ to cover the deep- seated flaws in the eurozone bloc."

    Not wishing to suggest any lack of credibility in your source, but this is from the same place (the EUTimes.net):
    World Mourns As Communist Darkness Falls Upon America

    In what is being described as one of the most astounding power grabs in modern history by newspaper headlines around the World, President Obama has succeeded in his audacious plan to remake America into a full fledged godless communist empire barely one year into his term with the enactment into law by the US Congress of his mammoth health care plan innocuously named H.R. 3200-Americas Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 and described by one Kremlin legal expert as having “nothing at all to do with health, but everything to do with control.”

    I see also that the Société Générale strategist quoted, London-based Albert Edwards, predicts the breakup of the euro on a relatively regular basis, and is largely alone in doing so - it seems a little dishonest to give his personal opinion as that of "strategists at Paris-based Société Générale".

    amused,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,296 ✭✭✭✭the_syco


    DaBrow wrote: »
    Our Immigration Policy is a joke, thousands of non-nationals can legally arrive in Ireland and work without having the ability to speak English and or Irish.
    We should have laws like the French: don't see many people milking their system, do you?

    =-=

    Oh, and we got lots of monies from the EU for our roads, etc... don't think we'll get that from the EFTA.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,056 ✭✭✭maggy_thatcher


    DaBrow wrote: »
    Most of our Trade is with Britain and America after all these years, we have very little export trade with other EU States.

    "Main export partners UK 18.6%, US 18.3%"
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

    From that page, keep going -- Belgium 14.7%, Germany 7%, France 5.9%, Spain 4.2% (2008)
    Belgium + Germany + France + Span == 31.8%
    Therefore, our biggest trading partner is the Eurozone. It is almost as big as UK&US combined (36.9%).

    Most of our national debt is in Euros. If we created our own little currency, first it would drop like a stone (everybody with money in the country would immediately take it out), but we'd still owe back all that money in Euros.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    Not wishing to suggest any lack of credibility in your source, but this is from the same place (the EUTimes.net):

    Look at the other link and you will see the link for the Bloomberg ARticle dated December 2009.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a3SIOdqSGOtE
    " Greece and Ireland are among countries in an “intolerable” economic situation, which may lead to bailouts or even an exit from the euro area by the end of next year, according to Standard Bank Plc."
    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I see also that the Société Générale strategist quoted, London-based Albert Edwards, predicts the breakup of the euro on a relatively regular basis, and is largely alone in doing so - it seems a little dishonest to give his personal opinion as that of "strategists at Paris-based Société Générale".

    amused,
    Scofflaw

    See above... Societé Generale are not fooling around when it comes to business.

    If bloomberg and them are predicting the same thing; Pompeii certainly springs to mind and the Domino Theory.

    Spain is a ticking time bomb and Greece cannot hold it together for long... You have been Warned.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow


    the_syco wrote: »
    We should have laws like the French: don't see many people milking their system, do you?

    =-=

    Oh, and we got lots of monies from the EU for our roads, etc... don't think we'll get that from the EFTA.

    http://www.eeagrants.org/id/14

    You were Saying???

    I think this is what they offer.... Looks the same to me.

    EFTA isn't even talked about often because that just shows how little people know.
    From that page, keep going -- Belgium 14.7%, Germany 7%, France 5.9%, Spain 4.2% (2008)
    Belgium + Germany + France + Span == 31.8%
    Therefore, our biggest trading partner is the Eurozone. It is almost as big as UK&US combined (36.9%).

    Most of our national debt is in Euros. If we created our own little currency, first it would drop like a stone (everybody with money in the country would immediately take it out), but we'd still owe back all that money in Euros.

    So what you're saying is this:

    Yes, America and Britain make up the largest Export Markets that we have and the costs of goods and services from Here... Are more expensive than elsewhere? So they are not in anyway put off or will shop elsewhere in europe, even if they find the exact same product for a lower price and in the same quality?

    Our Exports to them have plummetted and that has caused us a huge amount of pain... The Eurozone didn't even grow last year and shows no sign of improving soon... How can the eurozone be our biggest training partner?

    They make up 32% and the UK & US combined make up 37% between the two.. Most of our trade is outside the Euro currency.

    Ireland had the Punt fixed at the rate of €1.27 before conversion, I don't see how we can't bring back the Punt and pay it off at the rate of conversion.

    The currency could tumble, but we would be able to pay off our debts and actually recover like the Icelanders are doing with a weaker Icelandic Currency.

    The ECB has rates which do not represent our economic conditions and the rate of exchange is killing us... We are still too expensive to visit as a country.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    i would love that... but the uk will never leave.. until theyve got enough illegal immigrants.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 767 ✭✭✭HxGH


    Why don't we?

    Because..... Effort. :rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow




  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    DaBrow wrote: »
    Look at the other link and you will see the link for the Bloomberg ARticle dated December 2009.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a3SIOdqSGOtE
    " Greece and Ireland are among countries in an “intolerable” economic situation, which may lead to bailouts or even an exit from the euro area by the end of next year, according to Standard Bank Plc."

    See above... Societé Generale are not fooling around when it comes to business.

    If bloomberg and them are predicting the same thing; Pompeii certainly springs to mind and the Domino Theory.

    Spain is a ticking time bomb and Greece cannot hold it together for long... You have been Warned.

    The end of the euro has been predicted repeatedly by some institutions since its inception - most particularly, and most regularly, by the City of London. The reason I drew attention to your article was that they were quoting an analyst (and a known contrarian one) and implying that it represented the official opinion of the Société Générale.

    As for the Bloomberg article, well, have a closer look:
    Greece and Ireland are among countries in an “intolerable” economic situation, which may lead to bailouts or even an exit from the euro area by the end of next year, according to Standard Bank Plc.
    ...
    “Countries like Ireland and Greece may not be able to grow out of the current crisis,” Barrow said in a telephone interview today. “With interest-rate cuts, exchange-rate depreciation and significant fiscal support all off limits for these countries, bailouts or even pullouts from EMU may happen next year.”
    ...
    The widening difference in yield, or spread, between Greek and Irish bonds and German securities may accelerate, increasing the debt burden for these countries, he wrote in a report today. The Irish-German 10-year spread may rise to 300 basis points next year, from about 170 basis points, he said. The spread averaged about 43 basis points in the past five years, with the Greek-German average at 67 basis points in the period.

    That was December 2009, and a forecast based on Ireland's basis point spread continuing to increase - that was then, and this is now (also Bloomberg):
    March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland’s bonds are poised to outperform those of every other euro member except Austria this quarter as investors bet it will be more successful than countries such as Greece in cutting its budget deficit.

    The nation’s debt returned 3.4 percent this year, according to Bloomberg/EFFAS indexes. Yields on 10-year Irish bonds fell to within 128 basis points of those on benchmark German bunds on March 12, a 14-month low. Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc anticipate that spread may drop to about 65 basis points by the end of 2010 as the bonds keep rising.

    Now, it may happen that the euro will fall apart, and it may happen that one of the euro countries will leave, but we're not going to know it by relying on you as a source, because you're apparently completely uncritical of sources that tell you what you want to hear. That, in turn, suggests that you probably have little or no idea about the realities of changing from the EU to EFTA, but are instead cherry-picking what you want to hear about it, and putting that forward as being the reality.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭sirromo


    everybody with money in the country would immediately take it out

    David McWilliams addressed this point when he argued the case for leaving the euro
    http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/05/06/ditching-the-euro-could-boost-our-failing-economy
    We are already running a trade surplus and we’d run a bigger one. Our deposit base is significant. Clearly lots of money would flee the country initially, but it would come back as the domestic economy recovered quickly. Sure we’d have a lot of explaining to do politically, but we’ve to do that anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    That was December 2009, and a forecast based on Ireland's basis point spread continuing to increase - that was then, and this is now (also Bloomberg):

    Now, it may happen that the euro will fall apart, and it may happen that one of the euro countries will leave, but we're not going to know it by relying on you as a source, because you're apparently completely uncritical of sources that tell you what you want to hear. That, in turn, suggests that you probably have little or no idea about the realities of changing from the EU to EFTA, but are instead cherry-picking what you want to hear about it, and putting that forward as being the reality.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    What you fail to accept is that Ireland is still in pretty bad shape...

    The Bank of Scotland (Ireland) are "restructuring" and Halifax Bank are pulling out of Ireland, this is a very bad sign and not one that should be taken lightly.

    Ireland is attached to a currency that it is very shaky and is in a basket with 4 other countries whom can fall by the wayside at a drop of a hat.

    Spain or Greece will default and I believe will cause devastation across the eurozone, The Germans and other Eurozone countries are not going to bailout the Greeks because they are equally vulnerable but have the power to delay the inevitable damage.

    One town in France Refuses to use the Euro ....
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8588048.stm

    Ask anyone in Spain what they think of the Euro and disgust springs to mind, many want the peseta back because they believe the euro has been a disaster.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,079 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    DaBrow wrote: »

    ...
    The Germans and other Eurozone countries are not going to bailout the Greeks because they are equally vulnerable but have the power to delay the inevitable damage.
    ..

    Your argument might seem at least superficially appear more convincing if you kept up to speed with the most basic of recent developments.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055869272


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow


    marco_polo wrote: »
    Your argument might seem at least superficially more convincing if you kept up to speed on the latest developments.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055869272

    The Same EU that promised to respect the first outcome of the Lisbon Treaty?

    They are breaking their own rules because under EU Law, you cannot bail out a member state in the Eurozone...

    Even if a bailout does happen, it won't prevent the damage being felt across the continent... Spain if not Greece will be the deciding factor.

    Repercussions can't be prevented.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,056 ✭✭✭maggy_thatcher


    sirromo wrote: »
    David McWilliams addressed this point when he argued the case for leaving the euro
    http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/05/06/ditching-the-euro-could-boost-our-failing-economy

    He also said:
    The new currency would fall rapidly, giving our trading sector a significant boost and making Ireland cheaper overnight for people to do business in.
    He's missing the other half of the equation. If our currency was worthless (which it would be), while it could mean we'd be able to sell products cheaply, we wouldn't be able to afford to buy the raw materials necessary to create those products.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow


    He also said:

    He's missing the other half of the equation. If our currency was worthless (which it would be), while it could mean we'd be able to sell products cheaply, we wouldn't be able to afford to buy the raw materials necessary to create those products.


    http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0408/greece.html?
    "Greece was hit with mounting financial pressure on all sides today as its borrowing costs reached record heights and its shares plummeted on rising doubt that the EU would provide urgent debt help."


    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-08/greece-s-yield-unattractive-even-over-7-pimco-s-clarida-says.html

    "I don’t think that it would be an attractive enough yield,” said Clarida today in a Bloomberg Radio interview with Tom Keene. Greece is “sort of like the Titanic. Eighteen things went wrong, and when they go wrong at once it’s problematic,” said Clarida, whose Newport Beach, California-based firm runs the world’s largest mutual fund."


    I see we are not far behind them according to Citibank

    http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2581682

    Citi: Irish debt in "eye of the storm"

    "Irish, along with Spanish and Portuguese, bonds face inevitable "contagion" as concern that Greece will default undermines confidence in the rest of the European Union's most indebted nations, Citigroup warned."


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,419 ✭✭✭Cool Mo D


    He also said:

    He's missing the other half of the equation. If our currency was worthless (which it would be), while it could mean we'd be able to sell products cheaply, we wouldn't be able to afford to buy the raw materials necessary to create those products.

    Also, If we had our own currency, everyone with a mortgage would instantly default, as interest rates shot up to 20%, accompanied by massive inflation with no hope of pay rises.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    DaBrow wrote: »
    What you fail to accept is that Ireland is still in pretty bad shape...

    The Bank of Scotland (Ireland) are "restructuring" and Halifax Bank are pulling out of Ireland, this is a very bad sign and not one that should be taken lightly.

    Ireland is attached to a currency that it is very shaky and is in a basket with 4 other countries whom can fall by the wayside at a drop of a hat.

    Spain or Greece will default and I believe will cause devastation across the eurozone, The Germans and other Eurozone countries are not going to bailout the Greeks because they are equally vulnerable but have the power to delay the inevitable damage.

    I haven't suggested at any point that Ireland isn't in pretty bad shape - I made the point that the person who made the prediction you like made another related prediction on which the euro breakup one was predicated. His prediction was that Irish debt would be at 300 basis points by now, and that that might be one of the contributory factors in a possible breakup of the euro - but Irish debt didn't rise to 300 basis points. Instead it fell to about 140, and is expected to fall further.

    That you prefer to ignore that logic and instead insist on trying to back the original prediction with a new rationale means that you neither knew nor cared what the original rationale for the prediction was. In turn, that means that ascribing it to "Bloomberg" or any other "authoritative" source is meaningless, because when they change what they're saying, you don't - you don't really know why they're saying what they're saying, you only know you like it, and they're only "authoritative" in your eyes when they are saying what you want to hear.
    DaBrow wrote: »
    One town in France Refuses to use the Euro ....
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8588048.stm

    Ask anyone in Spain what they think of the Euro and disgust springs to mind, many want the peseta back because they believe the euro has been a disaster.

    Daily Mail style anecdotal tabloid rubbish.

    regards,
    Scofflaw


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 19,777 ✭✭✭✭The Corinthian


    Why could I not resist the temptation of posting on this board..?

    I'm not really interested in getting into an endless discussion here on this issue as it has been done countless times before and one thing that comes out repeatedly is that the "leave the EU brigade" will simply continue posting the most misleading crap and unsubstantiated opinion until those arguing against give up and go back to their lives.

    However, I would note the following:
    DaBrow wrote: »
    Ireland can come-out tops if we left the EU... Our own currency, Interest Rates and Improved Jus-Sanguinis Law could make the place like the UAE for Ancestral Workers.
    Enter the Herrenvolk argument, which ultimately seems to be at the core of a lot of these arguments. A very thinly disguised racial argument.
    So You're willing to sellout your own country and its people for money? Poor choice of words there, while you're at it you might aswell say our fight independence was a joke and we should still be licking the dirt off Britain's boots?
    LOL. Back to the old romantic notion of fighting the good fight against the evil Empire, are we? I think you should study something about Realpolitik (a foreign word, I know) before rushing like a lemming to the wire.
    Incredible... A Nation without an identity and rule from its own people is a nation without a soul.
    Nice cliche.
    At least 20,000 Americans of Irish Descent speak Irish as their first language in their homes, you will find this on either WikiPedia or on their census... Another 5,000 in the country to the North and other large numbers elsewhere in South America like Argentina where there is a strong diaspora.

    I find it offensive that you insult our Native Language
    Which you are presently using so eloquently to argue your case...
    It's people like you who are content with the rut we are stuck in that dispel this idea, Ireland has the potential but until we kick out the gombeenism civil war mentality that has prevented this country from being strong and self-sufficient.
    Ireland was never strong and self-sufficient, those policies were abandoned precisely because it kept us poor - we were known as Weiß Afrika in Germany because of this, did you know that?
    Swiss Products and services are plentiful in Ireland, they and the Norwegians have refused EU membership repeatedly for years because they value their independence... Good for them!!!
    Actually only a small subset, largely luxury goods that can afford the tariffs, are plentiful in Ireland. How much Swiss beef/pork/lamb do you see? Or fridge freezers, ovens and other kitchen appliances? Or beer - when was the last pint of Feldschlösschen you saw in Dublin?

    On that note, when was the last pint of Norwegian Frydenlund you drank? Or Liechtensteiner Brauhaus Hell (which is actually not all that bad)?
    Older than you it appears and more broad-minded, Anyone who thinks we should obey the EU without question and there is nothing else should look up EFTA rather than shrug it off
    Wither you are a lot older or a lot younger is my guess. Either way I'm no spring children and remember well what a clusterfsck getting a job in 'self sufficient' Ireland was economically.

    TBH, you seem to be grasping at dubious justifications (often incompletely so as to avoid contradiction) for a position that in reality has more to do with blind nationalism and race than economics, from what I can see.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 199 ✭✭DaBrow


    Why could I not resist the temptation of posting on this board..?

    I'm not really interested in getting into an endless discussion here on this issue as it has been done countless times before and one thing that comes out repeatedly is that the "leave the EU brigade" will simply continue posting the most misleading crap and unsubstantiated opinion until those arguing against give up and go back to their lives.

    Wither you are a lot older or a lot younger is my guess. Either way I'm no spring children and remember well what a clusterfsck getting a job in 'self sufficient' Ireland was economically.

    TBH, you seem to be grasping at dubious justifications (often incompletely so as to avoid contradiction) for a position that in reality has more to do with blind nationalism and race than economics, from what I can see.

    Why bother contribute replying, all you seem to be interested in is just complaining and not willing to consider valid alternatives.

    Ireland has gotten all that we are going to get from the European Union; we have a seat at the table but we are no longer getting the attention or gifts to build up the roads or infrastructure because the attention is now on the eastern bloc countries.

    Ireland can be self-sufficient, we have a Diaspora that we have never used to great potential and the likes of Italy and Germany have which is why alot of Americans and other Descendants from the globe claim citizenship and can travel, work or live in those countries with considerable ease.

    So if leaving the EU is Misleading C*ap, then why are Norway and Switzerland doing OK compared to fully ingrained EU Members? May be they are free and use their initative to get off their asses and work hard.

    You will find many Irish people are now very sick of the EU and alot are starting to question, whether we should even stay in a bloc that no longer listens to its citizens.

    I for one see no reason why we should... Ireland isn't self-sufficient because we rely on the EU and Multinationals.

    Unless Europhiles are scared of debate and being proven incorrect


    P.S.

    There is no such thing as Blind Nationalism... Just Loyalty to one's country, Traditional Values, Participating in idigenous customs and Promoting your own culture has never been a bad thing.

    Allowing our Diasporans back has nothing to do with a Herrenvolk arguement, or thinly disguised racial intent... But the fact they would integrate successfully because they share and value the same culture as the Native Irish Population.

    Anyone who thinks Nationalism is the same as that screwed up belief National Socialism needs to read over it again; that is a socialist idea which has nothing to do with it.

    Race is a word (I reject) that is meaningless to distinguish a group of ethnic communities who share similar appearence or customs... I regard Human beings as the same but they differ because of Ethnic Origin, Customs and Culture and belief.


  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭sirromo


    we were known as Weiß Afrika in Germany because of this, did you know that?

    I didn't know that. I thought the Germans used the term to refer to north Africa.
    http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wei%C3%9Fafrika

    I find it odd that the Germans would use the same term to refer to both Ireland and north Africa. Do you have any evidence to show that the term was widely used in Germany to refer to Ireland?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 19,777 ✭✭✭✭The Corinthian


    DaBrow wrote: »
    If you have nothing to contribute then don't bother replying, all you seem to be interested in is just complaining and not willing to consider alternatives.
    I considered the alternative you have presented and found it fundamentally flawed, so I have happily replied to point that out.
    Ireland can be self-sufficient, we have a Diaspora that we have never used to great potential and the likes of Italy and Germany have which is why alot of Americans and other Descendants from the globe claim citizenship and can travel, work or live in those countries with considerable ease.
    Ireland can only be self-sufficient if we decide that we want to lower our living standards dramatically. That is the reality of what self-sufficient Ireland used to be. Unless you can suggest a credible means by which this trade off can be averted (and I don't mean some vague theories about red tape and diaspora) then I suspect that no one will be interested in returning to the Ireland of the past.
    So if leaving the EU is Misleading C*ap, then why are Norway and Switzerland doing OK compared to fully ingrained EU Members? May be they are free and use their initative to get off their asses and work hard.
    I said your arguments for leaving the EU are misleading crap - there may be valid arguments out there for doing so but you've not presented them.

    As to countries like Norway and Switzerland (that never 'left' the EU), you have to remember that Ireland is not either of these countries. You seem to be selling some sort of fantasy that Ireland is economically in a similar position to them, and we are not. Nowhere close.
    You will find many Irish people are now very sick of the EU and alot are starting to question, whether we should even stay in a bloc that no longer listens to its citizens.
    No one pretends that the EU is perfect or that people have not got valid grievances against it, however translating that to a mass movement to leave is another story.
    I for one see no reason why we should....
    But it's actually evident you're actively not looking - that you actively quoted UK and US trade figures with Ireland and omitted Eurozone figures that directly contradicted your assertion is proof that you're not interested in viewing the question objectively.
    There is no such thing as Blind Nationalism... Just Loyalty to one's country, Traditional Values, Participating in idigenous customs and Promoting your own culture has never been a bad thing.
    Of course there is a thing as blind nationalism - it's called jingoism and seeks to motivate against all reason in the name of an abstract concept.
    Race is a pretentious word to distinguish a group of ethnic communities who share similar appearence or customs... I regard Human beings as the same but they differ because of Ethnic Origin, Customs and Culture and belief.
    Then why did you introduce genetic terms such as ancestry and jus sanguinis to your definition of Irishness if race is so unimportant?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 19,777 ✭✭✭✭The Corinthian


    sirromo wrote: »
    I didn't know that. I thought the Germans used the term to refer to north Africa.
    It probably originated there, but I have heard it more than once in Germany, mainly in Frankfurt, relating to Ireland prior to the nineties. Actually, it's often used for other countries too - typically those that should be Western in quality of life but are backward.

    Live in Germany for a while and return to Ireland and you'll quickly realize what they mean (often while waiting for a bus in Dublin).


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