Ken Ring on RTE radio 1

mike65

I refuse to believe him.

jambofc

missed him,what did he say?

mike65

Basicly the summer will be only slightly less rubbish than the last 3. He was talking about the sunspot cycle, and that we should have a half decent 2011. I may have topped myself by then.

jambofc

your joking don't think i could handle another s##t summer,would have expected a half decent one after the last few and coldest winter in years.

Min

I don't believe he correctly predicted the winter weather.

IvySlayer

Min wrote: »

I don't believe he correctly predicted the winter weather.

He said we would hav 16 days of snow. And he predicted the March one.

This guy has been very accurate, hope he's wrong though. He said May would be our summer

Min

IvySlayer wrote: »

He said we would hav 16 days of snow. And he predicted the March one.

This guy has been very accurate, hope he's wrong though. He said May would be our summer

Had far more than 16 days of snow here, still have snow from last Tuesday's snowstorm.

Joe Public

He was still predicting a warmer than average winter in early January but he changed his mind since then.

Danno

Is there an online link to a replay of this?

mike65

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/player_av.html?0,null,200,http://dynamic.rte.ie/quickaxs/209-r1-marianfinucane.smil

snow ghost

Regarding Ken's weather forecasts published here on these forums for the winter, I objectively analysed them with what actually happened and unfortunatley I can report I found absolutely no correlation between what he predicted and what the weather was.

The average person guessing would probably have had a better accuracy rate.

Did Ken mention on the radio about his book on how to read your cat's paws - 'Pawmistry'?

If people believe he can read cat's paws then I guess they might also believe his weather forecasts. Personally I don't anymore than I believe in the tooth fairy.

Deep Easterly

snow ghost wrote: »

If people believe he can read cat's paws then I guess they might also believe his weather forecasts. Personally I don't anymore than I believe in the tooth fairy.

Any eejit can read a cat's paws. It is when they start interpreting them that is cause for concern.

snow ghost

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Any eejit can read a cat's paws. It is when they start interpreting them that is cause for concern.

I had a rattle at this reading a cat's paw myself Deep... it said in cat paw hieroglyphics "If you don't put me down now sonny jim, I'll scratch your fecking eyes out".

John mac

on Todayfm now..

SeaFields

He also has a write up in todays Examiner with a listing of his accurate predictions to date :rolleyes:

He has predicted a mixed bag for the summer coming....Really?! Are you serious Ken? A mild, wet summer in Ireland...surely not. :rolleyes:

See here, Examiner article

Speak Now

SeaFields wrote: »

He also has a write up in todays Examiner with a listing of his accurate predictions to date :rolleyes:

He has predicted a mixed bag for the summer coming....Really?! Are you serious Ken? A mild, wet summer in Ireland...surely not. :rolleyes:

See here, Examiner article

Wow how vague is that :rolleyes:

Kenring

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Wow how vague is that :rolleyes:

I don't recall saying "July will (see)hardly any days when the sun will be free from the invasive presence of frequent scattered clouds". In fact July, I believe, will mainly see rain in the second week and a good proportion of sunny days.
Nor, for the record, do I think "2010 will be wetter than average for most of the country". Rather, many counties may be drier overall and the rest only slightly wetter.
There is a danger when being reported that in order to get a good storyline particular words get expanded upon out of context. I usually ask for the opportunity to vet what is going to be used, but mostly this request is not granted.
www.predictweather.com

lpryanm

Hi Ken, On TodayFM you said that the last week of May and first week in June would be good and also that the last week of June and first week of July would be pretty good too. I would be happy if we get this and maybe an odd day of good weather here and there around these dry spells.

Here's hoping it's better than the last few years anyway.

Kenring

lpryanm wrote: »

Hi Ken, On TodayFM you said that the last week of May and first week in June would be good and also that the last week of June and first week of July would be pretty good too. I would be happy if we get this and maybe an odd day of good weather here and there around these dry spells.

Here's hoping it's better than the last few years anyway.

Well I think so. And the summer weather will be at the right time and not right at the end of the season. Last June also had some nice spells if you recall. I do have a summer report with some county-specific maps available from the website at http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=274&type=home

Sponge Bob

Michael Gallagher the Donegal Postman is promising a good summer ....albeit in Donegal in fairness.

Michael is very reliable

Kenring

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Michael Gallagher the Donegal Postman is promising a good summer ....albeit in Donegal in fairness.

Michael is very reliable

I'd trust a postman anyday with a weather prediction, or a farmer, or a fisherman or surveyor, a pilot, a flower or a cow.
But not a computer model.

shoegirl

Its not the computer model that provides the forecast, its the interpretation of it.

pauldry

Its defo going to be a good Summer now if postie in Donegal says. Hes always right (Well once in Winter):)

Kenring

shoegirl wrote: »

Its not the computer model that provides the forecast, its the interpretation of it.

Incorrect. The interpretation IS the forecast. That's what everybody gets to read and hear.

Stinicker

Ken I have been an avid follower of your forecasts and so far your predictions of a dry and warm september last year and a bitter cold winter have been correct. What effect if any would the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano in Iceland potentially have on our weather especially with regards to the summer. Another Cold winter would suit me fine if it meant as chance of a summer:D All we need is winter tyres and its grand!

Joe Public

Stinicker wrote: »

Ken I have been an avid follower of your forecasts and so far your predictions of a dry and warm september last year and a bitter cold winter have been correct. What effect if any would the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano in Iceland potentially have on our weather especially with regards to the summer. Another Cold winter would suit me fine if it meant as chance of a summer:D All we need is winter tyres and its grand!

Just for the record, Ken predicted a good September and a warmer than average winter for 2009/10.

I've nothing against Ken and am very interested in his methods but I can't ignore the above incorrect statement from Stinicker.

Kenring

Stinicker wrote: »

Ken I have been an avid follower of your forecasts and so far your predictions of a dry and warm september last year and a bitter cold winter have been correct. What effect if any would the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano in Iceland potentially have on our weather especially with regards to the summer. Another Cold winter would suit me fine if it meant as chance of a summer:D All we need is winter tyres and its grand!

Joe Public is correct. I had predicted a cold start to winter but thought it would warm up enough in the second week of february to give a warmer winter overall. That's because I had expected the sun to wake up and begin cycle #24 around the last months of last year, but it is only just waking up now. The sun determines temperatures for a season, the moon determines the timing of events. The sun is more difficult to predict because its cycles vary more in range.
As to Eyjafjallajökull, I do not expect any volcano ever to make the slightest bit of difference to any season. Pinatubo didn't in 1991. I have an article proving this going up on my website tomorrow.
cheers

nacho libre

Kenring wrote: »

As to Eyjafjallajökull, I do not expect any volcano ever to make the slightest bit of difference to any season. Pinatubo didn't in 1991. I have an article proving this going up on my website tomorrow.
cheers

no offense but i hope you're wrong;) however, i look forward to reading the article nontheless.

Kenring

nacho libre wrote: »

no offense but i hope you're wrong;) however, i look forward to reading the article nontheless.

Having temporary trouble loading the article, but if anyone wants to email me for it I'll happily sent it out as a pdf attachment. Basically I have graphed Auckland, Dublin and Tokyo(for trans-planet verification) temp and sun levels from metservice data, for years before and after 1991, between 1981-1999, and there is absolutely no post-1991 spike anywhere, either up or down. The Pinatubo thing has always been an attempt by climatologist/meteorologists to show that emission gases can affect the atmosphere and therefore change weather/climate both short and longterm by changing temperatures and/or sunshine levels. They have no case, as their own stats show otherwise.
Ken
ken@weatherman.co.nz

snow ghost

Ken,

This is on the front page of your website:

"After a short but late sunny spell across Ireland last September, which amounted to last year's total summer, this year everyone is wondering what summer will bring"

Why? It is completely untrue.

I live in Ireland and I recall a fairly good May and a good June... May and June are traditionally 'summer' in the Irish seasons... Autumn (including September) starts at Lunasa in August.

So how did a week in September amount 'to last years total summer'?

What's the go with these completely false claims?

ch750536

to be fair to the man we are the odd one out in the world. Like left & right being the other way round.

Kenring

snow ghost wrote: »

Ken,

This is on the front page of your website:

"After a short but late sunny spell across Ireland last September, which amounted to last year's total summer, this year everyone is wondering what summer will bring"

Why? It is completely untrue.

I live in Ireland and I recall a fairly good May and a good June... May and June are traditionally 'summer' in the Irish seasons... Autumn (including September) starts at Lunasa in August.

So how did a week in September amount 'to last years total summer'?

What's the go with these completely false claims?

I accept what you say and indeed I had some sunny spells listed for June also. But I am talking about a run of at least a week of uninterrupted sunshine, maybe two weeks, which might be relied on for a holiday, and I think that is what people expect as summer weather, not a few days sun followed by more rain. I would like to know if anywhere in Ireland had that kind of extended-sunny May or June, and would stand corrected if those stats can be supplied. I do know that highest temps were in June as I said beforehand that they would be, and as is typical. (It will be the same this June). Besides, by July/August I was told by radio station hosts that apart from short sunny and warm spells in May and June, many were still waiting for summer to arrive, which is why so much interest was taken in my predictions for September. However, if it misleading I can reword what is on my website.
www.predictweather.com

Mothman

Kenring wrote: »

But I am talking about a run of at least a week of uninterrupted sunshine, maybe two weeks, which might be relied on for a holiday, and I think that is what people expect as summer weather, not a few days sun followed by more rain. I would like to know if anywhere in Ireland had that kind of extended-sunny May or June, and would stand corrected if those stats can be supplied.

Couldn't get the data to format clearly, but its date, followed by sunshine hours followed by rainfall. I got my hay made during this period

east Wicklow
Sunshine hours Rain mm
21-May-09 9.3 0.5
22-May-09 4.0 Tr
23-May-09 5.6 0.1
24-May-09 14.6 0
25-May-09 5.6 0
26-May-09 11.6 2.7
27-May-09 5.8 Tr
28-May-09 14.1 0
29-May-09 4.3 0
30-May-09 14.7 0
31-May-09 14.2 0
01-Jun-09 14.6 0
02-Jun-09 13.7 0
03-Jun-09 14.5 0
04-Jun-09 9.7 0
05-Jun-09 8.1 0

Stinicker

snow ghost wrote: »

Ken,

This is on the front page of your website:

"After a short but late sunny spell across Ireland last September, which amounted to last year's total summer, this year everyone is wondering what summer will bring"

Why? It is completely untrue.

I live in Ireland and I recall a fairly good May and a good June... May and June are traditionally 'summer' in the Irish seasons... Autumn (including September) starts at Lunasa in August.

So how did a week in September amount 'to last years total summer'?

What's the go with these completely false claims?

Last September was our summer in the fact that it was the only prolonged spell of dry weather without being interrupted by wet weather from the Atlantic and there was about two weeks without rain which was much more than May, June or July. Farmers saved Hay in September which was a rarity and the September spell was about the same as what we are getting right now in April especially if it lasts up until Friday as Met Eireann predicted today on the farming weather forecast.

Deep Easterly

Stinicker wrote: »

Last September was our summer in the fact that it was the only prolonged spell of dry weather without being interrupted by wet weather from the Atlantic and there was about two weeks without rain which was much more than May, June or July. Farmers saved Hay in September which was a rarity and the September spell was about the same as what we are getting right now in April especially if it lasts up until Friday as Met Eireann predicted today on the farming weather forecast.

September 09 certainly was a very dry month, but as a summer month, it was not a patch on June last, at least here in Galway. June was very dry and also very warm and very sunny; very similar in fact to the weather we had recently only much more intense. I recorded just 44mm of rain that month, a lot of which fell in short, sharp showers and thunderstroms. Official Galway data suggests the same.

The summery spell in September, whilst nice, only lasted a short time. I seem to recal a lot of cloud that month. I suspect that Ken is dealing only with eastern Ireland on this one, which benefited more from the September spell than the June one.

snow ghost

Kenring wrote: »

I accept what you say and indeed I had some sunny spells listed for June also. But I am talking about a run of at least a week of uninterrupted sunshine, maybe two weeks, which might be relied on for a holiday, and I think that is what people expect as summer weather, not a few days sun followed by more rain. I would like to know if anywhere in Ireland had that kind of extended-sunny May or June, and would stand corrected if those stats can be supplied. I do know that highest temps were in June as I said beforehand that they would be, and as is typical. (It will be the same this June). Besides, by July/August I was told by radio station hosts that apart from short sunny and warm spells in May and June, many were still waiting for summer to arrive, which is why so much interest was taken in my predictions for September. However, if it misleading I can reword what is on my website.
www.predictweather.com

Ken,

I had plenty of extended sun in May and June - the wet rainy conditions turned up around when the schools went on their summer holidays at the beginning of July.

People probably often refer to 'Summer' as the school holiday period in July and August.

In that respect the sun in September compared to the persisitent wet in July and August could be tenuously seen as the only glimpse of summer, but in real terms regarding the traditional Irish and modern seasons (May, June, July and June, July & August) it wasn't at all.

There is also probably regional differences regardng what happened in May and June.

Joe Public

Countrywide synopsis:-
Last september was drier than normal ( ~ 50% average rainfall ) but the only good spell of sunshine was from the 9th to the 13th, sunshine was ~ 115% average ( 1961-90 avearge ) and temps were slightly above the 1961-90 average.

Kenring

Deep Easterly wrote: »

September 09 certainly was a very dry month, but as a summer month, it was not a patch on June last, at least here in Galway. June was very dry and also very warm and very sunny; very similar in fact to the weather we had recently only much more intense. I recorded just 44mm of rain that month, a lot of which fell in short, sharp showers and thunderstroms. Official Galway data suggests the same.

The summery spell in September, whilst nice, only lasted a short time. I seem to recal a lot of cloud that month. I suspect that Ken is dealing only with eastern Ireland on this one, which benefited more from the September spell than the June one.

Thank you for those posts and I do stand corrected for the counties that got more than 10 days or more of sunshine in June. It is hard living 14,000 miles away monitoring this, and I have to go by what radio hosts tell me. Granted most who deal with me are on the east side of the country.
cheers