Pick An Outsider

cson

As per the title, pick one that you think will go well at big odds. For the purposes of the thread I'll consider an outsider to be 16/1 or greater. In other words; outside of the top 5 in the betting for any particular race.

I mentioned it in another thread and I'll stick with I'm Delilah who is too big at 66/1 in the Arkle and could well run a big race at those odds. Works out at 16/1 to place which is decent value all things considered imo.

admiralofthefleet

shannon spirit in the bumper

premierstone

cson wrote: »

I mentioned it in another thread and I'll stick with I'm Delilah who is too big at 66/1 in the Arkle and could well run a big race at those odds. Works out at 16/1 to place which is decent value all things considered imo.

How does 66/1 work out as 16/1 a place? €5 E/W returns €87.50 if placed for a €10 stake, so it only pays a fraction under 8/1.

cson

premierstone wrote: »

How does 66/1 work out as 16/1 a place? €5 E/W returns €87.50 if placed for a €10 stake, so it only pays a fraction under 8/1.

66/4 = 16.5

You're including the win portion of the e/w when calculating the returns.

Edit: Which is right too when you calculate total outlay to total return.

UrbanSea

Think in the bumpber dare me at 25/1

deewhy

Like the idea of the thread

Summit Meeting in the Neptune. I will forecast with Quel Esprit (who is looking like Mullins Banker for the week).

I also like Dave's Dream but not sure which race it will run in - Grand Annual or Jewson. Henderson was very sweet on this last yr after he won Imperial Cup.

Silverhand in the Coral Cup if it can take its improvement on the flat over hurdles

mdwexford

Mad Max for the Arkle.

connollys

Maybe this is just sentimentality talking but surely Katchit worth an EW at 33/1 for the world hurdle. Granted getting on, but a great cheltenham record.

UrbanSea

Oh and pittoni in the triumph 25/1

mdwexford

connollys wrote: »

Maybe this is just sentimentality talking but surely Katchit worth an EW at 33/1 for the world hurdle. Granted getting on, but a great cheltenham record.

lol hes only 7

Colonel Sanders

There are a couple I think could run well at decent prices but for the purposes of this thread I'll say Alberta's Run in the Ryanair. I've it backed NRNB at 25/1. Thought for a while it might not run but money for it today

Others I like are Ogee if he runs in the William Hill (20/1) and Copper Bleu in the Jewson (16/1, missed the fancy prices on my other fancy, China Rock)

bit of a bogey

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

shannon spirit in the bumper

Very interesting sort. Best price 25/1

Colonel Sanders

connollys wrote: »

Maybe this is just sentimentality talking but surely Katchit worth an EW at 33/1 for the world hurdle. Granted getting on, but a great cheltenham record.

I personally think he has zero chance of beating Big Bucks, so throwing the win part away.

I'd much rather 16/1 in the w/o Big Bucks market

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

There are a couple I think could run well at decent prices but for the purposes of this thread I'll say Alberta's Run in the Ryanair. I've it backed NRNB at 25/1. Thought for a while it might not run but money for it today

Albertas Run to take Ryanair route at festival

Only saw this now

kingkev26

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I personally think he has zero chance of beating Big Bucks, so throwing the win part away.

I'd much rather 16/1 in the w/o Big Bucks market

for me it would be donnas palm 50/1

Colonel Sanders

kingkev26 wrote: »

for me it would be donnas palm 50/1

Put it this way I certainly wouldn't be laying 50/1

corny

Not huge outsiders but Reve De Sivola in the Neptune and Tavern Times in the bumper. Both 12's.

RichieLawlor

Olofi at 25/1 for the triumph

thirtypence

33/1 Scotsirish in the Ryanair, only has 3 lengths to find with the fav Tranquil Sea on their Xmas race at Leopardstown (where I don't think he was trying to hard anyway with his stable mate winning the race)

Morrisseeee

Keep an eye out for P Nolans horse Maucaillou, Pertemps I think is its intended target, has a good EW history in Cheltenham !

slazz

cson wrote: »

As per the title, pick one that you think will go well at big odds. For the purposes of the thread I'll consider an outsider to be 16/1 or greater. In other words; outside of the top 5 in the betting for any particular race.

I mentioned it in another thread and I'll stick with I'm Delilah who is too big at 66/1 in the Arkle and could well run a big race at those odds. Works out at 16/1 to place which is decent value all things considered imo.

i think your right to back an outsider at good odds but it should only apply to the handicap races where the're all getting an equal chance , but to bet that way in a graded race would be foolish. if there is 20 lbs between two horses in a top race then the lesser rated horse hasn't much hope, so to back i'm delilah would be to wast your cash.

slazz

a friend of mine is a part owner in powerstation,and they fancy him as much this year as they did last year[he was 3rd at 33/1] to be placed in the world hurdle, he is 33's again this year and is worth a small bet to be placed or backed ew without the fav.

mike65

War Of Attrition 33/1 in the World Hurdle (11/1 w/o BB). Hasn't seen Cheltenham in 4 years but is a winner there of something called the Gold Cup. Can win over 3 miles on anything between good and heavy, currently having his busiest season I think, this will be his 7th run. That Mouse Morris is as happy with him as he is after his exertions suggests a decent place chance.

gandroid

Nenuphar Collonges in the William Hill chase on Tuesday...20s most places. Good course record and does not have a bad weight.

mdwexford

slazz wrote: »

i think your right to back an outsider at good odds but it should only apply to the handicap races where the're all getting an equal chance , but to bet that way in a graded race would be foolish. if there is 20 lbs between two horses in a top race then the lesser rated horse hasn't much hope, so to back i'm delilah would be to wast your cash.

Genuine lol at this, if thats the case lets go lump on all the top rated favs every day and we'll all by minted. :rolleyes:

You are either naive or have no clue about backing horses.

slazz wrote: »

a friend of mine is a part owner in powerstation,and they fancy him as much this year as they did last year[he was 3rd at 33/1] to be placed in the world hurdle, he is 33's again this year and is worth a small bet to be placed or backed ew without the fav.

Hahaha and then in your next post you totally contradict yourself and say to back a horse who is 20lbs below loads of others in the World Hurdle.

Itsdacraic

Have an antepost e/w bet on Frawley in the bumper @ 33's.

ghosttown

Ogee in the William Hill at 16/1.
Zarinava at 16/1 in the Mares.

Haven't really looked past Tuesday yet !

The jock

Itsdacraic wrote: »

Have an antepost e/w bet on Frawley in the bumper @ 33's.

My GP owns this, it should run a big race and I'm on it antepost but they dont see it winning.

91011

Some Present - Neptune Investments Hurdle, 17th March.

Currently available at 40/1 with William Hill and 25/1 PP & Boyles.

Trainer Tom Mullins. - Had a great run in the bumber last year second to Dunguib, had good return in September but lost its way in December finishing down the field in leopardstown, but much improved at end of January when 3rd.

Tom Mullins claims hores is back on song and better ground suits him.

Odds were as low as 12/1 in early December drifted to 33's and one or 2 bookies went to 40's. The odds on the exchanges have tightened considerably over the past few days and is currently 21 with betdaq.


Considering the pedigree and if you can see past the December race, 40/1 is a cracker of a price for this horse.

dicknorris

Meath All Star in the Martin Pipe conditionals jockey race 20/1 Gordon Elliottt would like to win this one as he worked for Martin Pipe

Itsdacraic

The jock wrote: »

My GP owns this, it should run a big race and I'm on it antepost but they dont see it winning.

Fair enough. His form lines are strong enough to be worth a bet at that price, he was with 3l of Elegant Concorde in December, then won the next time out, both races have had their form franked so thought he was good value at the price.

NewApproach

Donna's Palm in the CH and Silk Affair are two I'm interested in.

Goldcupfav

Like the look of Dunraven Storm in the bumper at 25/1. Can get 40/1 and 11.5/1 for a place on betfair.

slazz

yho should read the message more clearly i never mentioned anything about backing fav just to back a donkey at 66/1 in a top race would be foolish as for powerstation only big bucks and punchestown beat him in the same race last year and he has only been unplaced once in more than a handfull of races at cheltenham and he is carrying much better form into it this year than last. i also said back him ew without fav.

cson

Plenty of people out there would love to own a 'donkey' like I'm Delilah

Vanbis

cson wrote: »

Plenty of people out there would love to own a 'donkey' like I'm Delilah

Cson, you still fancy I'm Delilah in the Arkle tomorrow? I see his odds on PP have jumped from 66/1 to 100/1

Insane Rambling

Silver Birch in the Cross-Country E/W. According to reports from one of the preview nights Gordon Elliott fancy's it to at least be placed. 16's at the moment.

Sprouts

Frawley in the bumper @ 16s with Ladbrokes, trained by one of the shrewedest men in the game.

Morgans

Vanbis wrote: »

Cson, you still fancy I'm Delilah in the Arkle tomorrow? I see his odds on PP have jumped from 66/1 to 100/1

I think Im delilah should be far shorter than 100/1 also. Woolcombe Folly beat her a short head last time out and is generally 20/1. Mad Max well behind is generally 25/1. Whether she is quite good enough to get involved is debatable, but at the odds there are far more stupid bets going to be suggested on here.

brandon_flowers

Won In the Dark for the CH is mine 50 or 66/1 in places... a lot gamer and less tempermental than some of the shorter priced horses.

Vanbis

Morgans wrote: »

I think Im delilah should be far shorter than 100/1 also.

If you back it e/w at 66/1 PP will out on the 100/1. I was thinking at 66/1 might be worth a e/w but now i'm not so sure with odds at 100/1

mdwexford

Vanbis wrote: »

If you back it e/w at 66/1 PP will out on the 100/1. I was thinking at 66/1 might be worth a e/w but now i'm not so sure with odds at 100/1

lol how does that make any difference.

Vanbis

mdwexford wrote: »

lol how does that make any difference.

Seems a waste of time with the odds getting longer.

Just checked Boylesports and they have it at 33/1 so maybe i will do it e/w.

mdwexford

Why, horses drift and win every day.
Going from 66s to 100s is nothing, dont let it put you off.

Vanbis

mdwexford wrote: »

Why, horses drift and win every day.
Going from 66s to 100s is nothing, dont let it put you off.

When i saw the odds on PP i thought they were crazy and still do so i'm going to back it e/w if i dont and it comes in i'll be kicking myself.

Wizard007

Albertas Run in the Gold Cup - got at 50/1
Schindlers Hunt in the Gold Cup - got at 100/1
Youngstown in the National Hunt - 25/1
Time for Rupert in Ladbrookes World Hurdle - 20/1
I also have War of Attrition - 33/1, In Compliance - 100/1 and Cooldine - 9/1

I haven't a clue about horse racing. Just backed a few at the start of feb for this week and a few again this morning.

Morgans

Vanbis wrote: »

When i saw the odds on PP i thought they were crazy and still do so i'm going to back it e/w if i dont and it comes in i'll be kicking myself.

Well, the 100/1 is well and truly disappeared. Thanks for giving the heads up.

Vanbis

Morgans wrote: »

Well, the 100/1 is well and truly disappeared. Thanks for giving the heads up.

Sorry, i didnt even get it at 100/1 myself. Just layed my bet this evening but couldnt believe the odds dropped again so quick. I saw PP payout if the odds are greater then when you lay your bet.

Wizard007

Right, I just followed ye guys there now and did Mad Max ( 25/1 ) and I'm Delilah ( 50/1 ). Like I said I don't have a clue

therokerroar

Flat Out in the Supreme Novice.

TB1809

Just backed Flat Out about an Hour Ago at 18/1. Townend for Willie to upset the lot.