Cheltenham 2010, tips, hunchs and dead certs?

Jonny13

right lets get crackin on this, make evry1 rich

any tips for big and short price alike

good feelings, well handicapped, decent form? let us know??

best bets for the week?

yankees, lucky 15's etc what you think?

de buzz is startin to build, lets make it a good 1 this year

admiralofthefleet

dunguib is a dead cert

tranqiul sea is another good one

deewhy

We could try and agree a lucky 15 for each day. Actually pick 2 a win and each way.

Shane732

deewhy wrote: »

We could try and agree a lucky 15 for each day. Actually pick 2 a win and each way.

For some reason I don't really think so!!

Shane732

As with the majority of people I reckon Tuesday will be the best day for the Irish (winners wise) and therefore the probably the best day for Irish punters.

A lot of this is subject to Dunguib coming in as some people nearly have the house on him.

My advice would be to follow the Irish on day one (we could possibly have 4 winners on Tuesday).

gandroid

I've a good feeling about Nenuphar Collonges in the William Hill, great course form, not a bad weight and should run well at a big price. Each way of course.

artanevilla

Captain Cee Bee for the Arkle.

corny

Tidal Bay for the World Hurdle.

deewhy

Shane732 wrote: »

For some reason I don't really think so!!

For some reason, I thought that would be the reply!!

bit of a bogey

Shane732 wrote: »

As with the majority of people I reckon Tuesday will be the best day for the Irish (winners wise) and therefore the probably the best day for Irish punters.

A lot of this is subject to Dunguib coming in as some people nearly have the house on him.

My advice would be to follow the Irish on day one (we could possibly have 4 winners on Tuesday).

Yeh definitely agree. Last year I had an amazing tuesday, a good wednesday, a bad thursday and a bo***x of a friday!

We have a chance of going through the card on the Tuesday and four winners looks a very reasonable expectation - which would be great!

Dungiub looks likely to win the first for us, we have real live chances of winning the arkle, we could have something sneaky in the william hill (although this looks the toughest of the day), we've some brilliant contenders in the champion hurdle and I'll be extremely surprised if an Irish horse doesnt win the x-county and the mares race!

Going to be a great first day to set us up for Paddy's day!!

Get in!

pejesus

have a look at this horse and tell me what you all think . im going to back him ew or am i crazy AATHER

Shane732

bit of a bogey wrote: »

Yeh definitely agree. Last year I had an amazing tuesday, a good wednesday, a bad thursday and a bo***x of a friday!

We have a chance of going through the card on the Tuesday and four winners looks a very reasonable expectation - which would be great!

Dungiub looks likely to win the first for us, we have real live chances of winning the arkle, we could have something sneaky in the william hill (although this looks the toughest of the day), we've some brilliant contenders in the champion hurdle and I'll be extremely surprised if an Irish horse doesnt win the x-county and the mares race!

Going to be a great first day to set us up for Paddy's day!!

Get in!

I know for me anyway Tuesday almost always determines how the festival is going to go for me...

All the talk about Dunguib is starting to make me wonder just how big I should go in on him. At one stage over the last for days I've considered sitting the race out and hitting the mares race hard instead. I know people say Dunguib's jumping might let him down but when you look at what he's up against it's very hard to make decent cases for any of the others to turn him over. If I was to oppose him I think I'd go with Menorah @ 12/1.

Champion Hurdle should be an Irish win all going well - I just can't decide which one at the moment. Go native should probably have the fire power to win. Although Hennessy is sweet on the chances of Sublimity - ground depending.

Garde Champtre will win the Cross Country and Quevega will win the mares race.

Personally I think Somersby will win the Arkle.

Shane732

pejesus wrote: »

have a look at this horse and tell me what you all think . im going to back him ew or am i crazy AATHER

What horse?!

pejesus

Shane732 wrote: »

What horse?!

the horse is AATHER

deewhy

other than the Starluck connection with Prendergast - what is the rationale?

TB1809

Drumbaloo has a great chance in the Bumper around 14/1

Have a tenner on him in Celtic and get a free single on any cheltenham race.

krustydoyle

TB1809 wrote: »

Drumbaloo has a great chance in the Bumper around 14/1

Have a tenner on him in Celtic and get a free single on any cheltenham race.

Hes been talked up at a few of the preview nights and hes gonna have choc thornton on him i think?;)

Nulty

Dipped my toe in today...

Triumph Hurdle
Carlito Brigante @ 5/1 (gonna press up @ 6's tomorrow)

Arkle
Somersby @ 6/1 My best bet

"Banker" 4-fold
MM-Dun-BB-KS @ 7.3/1

brandon_flowers

OK my certs are.....
Dunguib in the Supreme Novices
Quevaga in the Mares hurdle
Kauto in the GC

Horses I fancy are
Weapons Amnesty in the RSA Chase on Wednesday
Big Zeb (e/w) in the QM
Sizing Europe in the Arkle (love/hate relationship)
Cooldine e/w if 12/1 became available

Really looking forward to it now................

Knobs

Duinguib Banker of festival- He gets beat alot of people going to be in trouble but IMO will win, tank

Captain Cee Bee- like the look of this horse, had Sizing europe down for arkle but think Captain Cee Bee is the one to beat. Has won at chelters before.
at 6/5 to place on betfair, Big bet here for me

DrumBaloo- Have got good word for this one, win and place bets (Betfair)
Old Charm-Little Dabble on this one if he goes for bumper, same yard as duinguib


Go Native- My personal choice for CH has beat English hopefulls Binoc and co at newcastle and is going for a 1m bonus if can win this. Has the engine to power up the hill but ill be waiting till the day to back him, see what going is like. Punjabi a livly place bet for me. Pity Hurricane Fly not running would win IMO at his best :mad:


Nina will win Cross country


Quevega for the mares IMO Forecast with Voler la vet



W hill Trophey - Bensalem Place bet for me

RichieLawlor

Long Run in the RSA

Tell Massini in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

Go Native in the Champion Hurdle

Banker Trixie

Verance

TB1809 wrote: »

Drumbaloo has a great chance in the Bumper around 14/1

Have a tenner on him in Celtic and get a free single on any cheltenham race.

Is it only on Drumbaloo or any horse?

TB1809

Have a ten euros on any cheltenham race and get a free 10 euro single.

applehunter

TB1809 wrote: »

Have a ten euros on any cheltenham race and get a free 10 euro single.

The minute you walked in the joint
I could see you were a
man of distinction
a real big spender

deewhy

pejesus wrote: »

have a look at this horse and tell me what you all think . im going to back him ew or am i crazy AATHER

I see this is entered for the Imperial Cup on Sat - that would make your bet interesting if it were to win that with the €50k bonus on offer for winning in C'ham. Did you back him for Vincent O'Brien or Supreme Novice?

TB1809

applehunter wrote: »

The minute you walked in the joint
I could see you were a
man of distinction
a real big spender

Perharps I'll rephrase

Have at least 10 eur bet on any Cheltenham race and Ivan will give you a 10 eur free single.http://static.boards.ie/vbulletin/images/smilies/smile.gif

Warper

I've made 3 bets so far:

100 on Garde Champetre @ 9-4 - Cross Country
100 on Go Native @ 4-1 - Champion Hurdle
100 Double on Master Minded @ 4-5 an Kauto Star @ 4-5

I fancy Tranquil Sea in the Ryanair too at around 4-1

Btw Hill's are guaranteeing their prices - if SP is bigger you get SP though they are only NR NB on the top 4 races.

pejesus

deewhy wrote: »

I see this is entered for the Imperial Cup on Sat - that would make your bet interesting if it were to win that with the €50k bonus on offer for winning in C'ham. Did you back him for Vincent O'Brien or Supreme Novice?

Im going to back it in the morning for the supreme novice and if dunguib wins il get my money back . its a huge price 66/1

bit of a bogey

pejesus wrote: »

Im going to back it in the morning for the supreme novice and if dunguib wins il get my money back . its a huge price 66/1

Aather is almost certainly being aimed at the county hurdle but Ive been looking at the weights and I dont think he'll get in. If he does end up going for the supreme novices ,you wont get 66/1 in the morning!

TB1809

bit of a bogey wrote: »

Aather is almost certainly being aimed at the county hurdle but Ive been looking at the weights and I dont think he'll get in. If he does end up going for the supreme novices ,you wont get 66/1 in the morning!

it's 1000 on BF for the Supreme Nov, must be definite for the County Hurdle

RichieLawlor

TB1809 wrote: »

it's 1000 on BF for the Supreme Nov, must be definite for the County Hurdle

No, thats a realistic assessment of the horses chance in the Sup Nov

bit of a bogey

I wouldnt think aather would have anywhere near the class to win a supreme novices anyway. I do like him for the county hurdle as he's open to alot of improvement but like I said, I dont think he'll get in. If he does get in I'll prob have a small ew bet on him. The fear always is though that Pipe may have something with 2 stone in hand. Its the sort of race that he has plotted out for a horse since last year!

The Imperial cup on saturday could well tell us more!

ShowSportsNews

I'll be going for the best chance Cheltenham acca there has been in years! Given that most of these horses on form are rated far and above the rest of the field or in Kauto Stars case just ahead of Denmans best this has to be the bank roller of the festival.

Dunguib
Master Minded
Big Bucks
Kauto Star

Acca paying around 7/1.

I also fancy ew value in Bellvano in the Supreme Novices and Barker in the Queen Mother.

Admins I hope this is ok? Checkout my Cheltenham Preview blog on www.showsportsnews.com

venividivici

Tuesdays picks:

Sup. Nov.: Peddler's Cross (if it goes in this race)
Arkle: Captain Cee Bee
Will. Hill.: Exmoor Ranger
Champ. Hdl.: Khymber Kim (my best bet of the festival)*
X Ctry.: L'Ami
Dav. Nich.: Voler La Vedette



*I was chatting to Nigel T-D on a flight from Glasgow and he told me, 'don't mind Dunguib, Kim will pay your mortgage!' He also mentioned Sublimity as the only horse they were slightly worried about but they were still certain of beating him and as I'm sure everyone knows now Sublimity doesn't run. That's my bit of insider info anyway. Good luck all.

RichieLawlor

venividivici wrote: »

Tuesdays picks:

Sup. Nov.: Peddler's Cross (if it goes in this race)
Arkle: Captain Cee Bee
Will. Hill.: Exmoor Ranger
Champ. Hdl.: Khymber Kim (my best bet of the festival)*
X Ctry.: L'Ami
Dav. Nich.: Voler La Vedette

Peddlers Cross will go in the Longer race

RichieLawlor

ShowSportsNews wrote: »

I'll be going for the best chance Cheltenham acca there has been in years! Given that most of these horses on form are rated far and above the rest of the field or in Kauto Stars case just ahead of Denmans best this has to be the bank roller of the festival.

Dunguib
Master Minded
Big Bucks
Kauto Star

Acca paying around 7/1.

Binocular, MM, Kasbah Bliss and Kauto all looked as likely last year, never works out that way

ShowSportsNews

Have to agree with your bit of inside info there on Khyber Kim! With Go Native not a fully convincing fav and Solwhit scoping dirty today the 8/1 still available for Khyber Kim is unreal value! To think Paddy Power had a 12/1 special price on him only last week! A horse thats won his last 2 outings beating Celestial Halo and Harry Tricker in the process who could turn their nose up to that price.

ShowSportsNews

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Binocular, MM, Kasbah Bliss and Kauto all looked as likely last year, never works out that way

Binocular has always been an overated underperforming horse for me. I can't disagree with Kasbah although happily opposed him and was on Big Bucks at 7/1 last year and he obliged I was on Osana in the Champion Hurdle last year and he disappointed badly..

venividivici

yeah thought that about Peddler's Cross, but ya never know what owners/trainers might decide, either way i'll be backing it on Tues or Weds.

I have some 'small' money on Khyber Kim at 12's and some 'bigger' money at 8's, as was already said 8's IMO is still huge.

Sizzler

I'm going against some of the more obvious choices this year and trying to find some value, whether that plan pays off only time will tell :eek::)

Champion Hurdle - Have gone for Zaynar at 8/1 antepost, I'm ignoring that last defeat at Newcastle. I dont think that means diddly squat, seem to remember Punjabi getting turned over pre his champion hurdle victory.

World Hurdle - I've gone for another Henderson horse, Sentry Duty. Last victory was just shy of the 3m here but was importantly at Cheltenham and he made a monkey out of Katchit, he had LOADS in the tank that day and think he might be a match for Big Bucks. 14/1

Champion Bumper - I'm going for Shot from the hip. Has been HUGELY impressive in his two wins to date. Comes here without really having been tested but after seeing him win at Leop I couldnt resist some having a go at 14/1, hes a bit shorter now.

Arkle - I'm plumping for Tataniano at 16/1. I will be very surprised if Ruby jumps off this to ride Sportsline but even if he does I think hes in with a huge chance. Was touched off the last day at a crazy price but was giving 4lbs away that day and given hes come up that cheltenham hill twice as a winner before means a lot for me. Great e/w shout.

Triumph Hurdle - Advisor 10/1. Again Ruby should be on board here at a rather generous price. Has yet to be severely tested but can only beat whats been put in front of him and he has been impressive to say the least.

Ryanair Chase - Schindlers Hunt at 10/1 now, I got a few pts better a fortnight ago but always turns up for the big occassion and this is a wide open race, bang in form and sure to run into a place for me.

Supreme Novices - Dont have to be a racing expect to see that Dunguib is the one to beat here but with PP's rather generous money back offer Im going for Get me out of here to run this lad close, hes been class in all his races, like Dunguib doesnt know what being beaten is yet, so something has to give.

Lays of the festival for me - Weld has an AWFUL record here and I cant see Rite of Passage winning . He beat Grey Soldier the last day at Leop and look what happened to Grey Soldier in the UK a fortnight ago! LAY LAY LAY!

Elegant Concorde, cant see why this is heading the market, it will be found out by a better Irish horse, simple as.

Alaivan - Probably the most bizarre fav of the meet for me and I wouldnt back it with monopoly money.

cson

Could have had Khyber Kim at 9s from Hills if you shopped around.

venividivici

cson wrote: »

Could have had Khyber Kim at 9s from Hills if you shopped around.

12's and 8's will do fine for me, i'm not greedy!!!!!!!

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Binocular, MM, Kasbah Bliss and Kauto all looked as likely last year, never works out that way

They didnt, the 3 Nicholls horses win unless something goes wrong. Dunguib not so much.

ShowSportsNews wrote: »

Have to agree with your bit of inside info there on Khyber Kim! With Go Native not a fully convincing fav and Solwhit scoping dirty today the 8/1 still available for Khyber Kim is unreal value! To think Paddy Power had a 12/1 special price on him only last week! A horse thats won his last 2 outings beating Celestial Halo and Harry Tricker in the process who could turn their nose up to that price.

How is Go Native not fully convincing?
He is a rock solid fav, bomb proof to be in the top 3.

KK and Medermit are going to be on my side too however.

Sizzler im glad someone else is on Tataniano, thought i was the only one.
Have to say im not liking the look of Betfair prices on him though, im half expecting an announcement by Nicholls any day that hes going to Aintree instead.

RichieLawlor

First off Sizzler I'm nit saying your wrong, these are my opionions on your selections.

Ruby won't be on either Tataniano or Advisor imo, Sports Line and Secant Star are both shorter in the betting and have livlier chances in there respective races.

Tataniano just isn't any good, it's that simple I'm afraid. He has beaten nothing all year ( fosters cross was going equally as well at Cheltenham that day before coming down and he's no world beater) and he was turned over at 1/6 last time out. If he was any good he would not be the price he is and when Ruby confirms he's not riding this horse could go off any price.

Zaynar is a place lay in the CH. How he is so short is amazing, that triumph form isn't as hot as people seem to think, he then won over 2m3f at ascot and 2m4f at Cheltenham and was turned over at 1/14 over the shortest distance he has tackled this year. Horse should be in the World Hurdle and if he has the pace to win a champion I'll leave it so.

I don't think Sentry Duty will get home in the LWH, but while I wouldn't put you off him. I think Big Bucks is the banker of the meeting.

steerforth80

had my first bet today.. wishfull thinking in the Coral cup @ 14's. nice weight and possible claiming jockey on board.. improving horse and ticks the boxes for me at 14's.. will make my festival!!!

admiralofthefleet

so far im on:

tranquil sea
rite of passage
shannon spirit
captain cee bee

ShowSportsNews

mdwexford wrote: »

How is Go Native not fully convincing?
He is a rock solid fav, bomb proof to be in the top 3.

I just feel he has a tendency to idle in the run in like he did when just beating Starluck in Kempton and had no pace when Voler La Vadette hammered him at Down Royal, so I wonder how he will cope doing the same coming up the hill at Cheltenham. I know he held on well last year but it was a slow Supreme Novices by previous standards. DOn't get me wrong he will defo be in the frame but others have good cases especially with the odds available for the rest of the field.

RichieLawlor

ShowSportsNews wrote: »

I just feel he has a tendency to idle in the run in like he did when just beating Starluck in Kempton and had no pace when Voler La Vadette hammered him at Down Royal, so I wonder how he will cope doing the same coming up the hill at Cheltenham. I know he held on well last year but it was a slow Supreme Novices by previous standards. DOn't get me wrong he will defo be in the frame but others have good cases especially with the odds available for the rest of the field.

He got there too soon in the christmas hurdle. Wont happen in the CH

VLV beat him in a swamp up north where he drifted from 6/4 out to 11/4 or something equally similar,

Last years Supreme was faster than the Champion over the same course and distance 1 hour later

UrbanSea

I'd find garde champetre at 9/4 one of the best bets of the festival.

Shane732

greetings wrote: »

I'd find garde champetre at 9/4 one of the best bets of the festival.

I would have agreed with this statement until Saturday - I don't know how big I'm going to go in now...

Morgans

Supposedly Nicholls wants Tataniano to go for the Grand Annual but Stewart wants to go for the Arkle. Supposedly. I think that Ruby will ride Sportsline, but I dont think its far from certain that he'd make the right choice. They sound alike etc but he smells like another Tatanen for me. Just short of what is required.