Mark Johnstons 3yo Handicappers 1m4f+"

Nulty

Hugh Taylor found stat =

231pt profit backing Mark Johnstons 3yo handicappers at 1m4f+ over 15 years.

mike65

Stay with Lingfield and Southwell, Wolvers is "okay" Kempton a no-no.
If you fancy playing around with various parameters go here

mike65

Honest Broker wins at 12/1 I hope you were on Nulty

Nulty

Goddamit Mike!

I was probably doing something crap!

Although it was a 7f so doesn't meet the criteria :rolleyes:

Update:

Lingfield 8 March
Moonbalej 12f 3rd @ 4/1

Bank -1

POINTBREAK

Nulty wrote: »

Hugh Taylor found stat =

231pt profit backing Mark Johnstons 3yo handicappers at 1m4f+ over 15 years.

Is that only 15 points a year. Did he say how many runners?

POINTBREAK

According to Massey he is making a loss on them the last 7 years?
Results broken down by Race Distance


Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP 1m4f to 1m5f6078514.0%87.5%21134.8%88.2% 1m6f to 1m7f1882513.3%96.5%6333.5%93.1% 2m to 2m1f1262318.3%97.9%4434.9%86.4% 2m2f to 2m3f2813.6%60.7%517.9%59.5% 2m4f to 2m5f1915.3%136.8%315.8%109.9%

That didnt work.......... http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/dbaccess.php

Nulty

about 600 runners I think about 160 winners. could check if your dead interested

Nulty

Kempton (AW) Result
17 Mar 2010

Temple Fair 12f 3rd @ 6/1

Bank -2

Nulty

POINTBREAK wrote: »

According to Massey he is making a loss on them the last 7 years?
Results broken down by Race Distance


Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP 1m4f to 1m5f6078514.0%87.5%21134.8%88.2% 1m6f to 1m7f1882513.3%96.5%6333.5%93.1% 2m to 2m1f1262318.3%97.9%4434.9%86.4% 2m2f to 2m3f2813.6%60.7%517.9%59.5% 2m4f to 2m5f1915.3%136.8%315.8%109.9%

That didnt work.......... http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/dbaccess.php

That last bit is unreadable.

I have him at a 35pt profit for 3yo's in handicaps over 1m4f in the last 7 years using masseys site.

starting at March 3rd 2004, it's been profitable since 12 Oct 2004, at one point reaching 107pts profit

Nulty

These are his last 20, Hugh Taylor said last year was not a good one for the stat but that was last year. gonna keep track of it this year

Date Race Horse SP Position £100 win £50 each way
16 Oct 2009 5:30 Newmarket BECAUSEWECAN 7-1 1/11 4555 -292
17 Oct 2009 3:40 Newmarket ALANBROOKE 12-1 16/32 4455 -392
17 Oct 2009 5:50 Wolverhampton AKBABEND 9-4 1/7 4680 -251
18 Oct 2009 2:40 Southwell FIN VIN DE LEU 10-3 3/6 4580 -351
22 Oct 2009 8:20 Kempton TILOS GEM 7-1 2/13 4480 -314
24 Oct 2009 4:05 Doncaster ALCALDE 12-1 3/15 4380 -214
26 Oct 2009 2:50 Lingfield AKBABEND 4-1 3/9 4280 -224
26 Oct 2009 2:50 Lingfield SHADY LADY 25-1 9/9 4180 -324
28 Oct 2009 3:05 Musselburgh ALANBROOKE 11-4 3/8 4080 -346
4 Nov 2009 8:20 Kempton MANNLICHEN 13-8 1/7 4242 -245
13 Nov 2009 7:50 Wolverhampton TILOS GEM 9-4 7/10 4142 -345
26 Nov 2009 7:00 Kempton MANNLICHEN 4-5 2/10 4042 -387
28 Nov 2009 1:45 Lingfield KING'S SALUTE 5-2 1/7 4292 -230
4 Dec 2009 3:30 Lingfield MANNLICHEN 8-11 2/5 4192 -271
11 Dec 2009 9:20 Wolverhampton ALPEN GLEN 16-1 8/9 4092 -371
10 Feb 2010 7:40 Kempton TEMPLE FAIR 4-1 2/5 3992 -371
24 Feb 2010 7:30 Kempton EXEMPLARY 1-1 2/3 3892 -471
3 Mar 2010 3:30 Wolverhampton THE MIGHTY MOD 25-1 3/12 3792 -209
8 Mar 2010 5:00 Lingfield MOONBALEJ 4-1 3/5 3692 -309
17 Mar 2010 8:20 Kempton TEMPLE FAIR 6-1 3/6 3592 -409

POINTBREAK

Nulty wrote: »

That last bit is unreadable.

I have him at a 35pt profit for 3yo's in handicaps over 1m4f in the last 7 years using masseys site.

starting at March 3rd 2004, it's been profitable since 12 Oct 2004, at one point reaching 107pts profit

Thanks, thats interesting. I think my search was for all ages and not just 3yr olds and thats where the difference comes from.

Nulty

Wolverhampton 29 March
Temple Fair 12f 6th @ 9/1
Moonbalej 12f 7th @ 11/2

Bank -4

Southwell 6 April
Ibn Hiyyan 12f 1st @ 5/6

Bank -3.17

Nulty

Beverley 5.30

Corsica 12f 1st @ 7/2

Bank +.33

Nulty

Lingfield 5.25

Corsica runs again 12f

POINTBREAK

I remember reading a "rule" that said don't back 3 Year Old Handicappers until after the first 3 months of the season.
I wonder how that would come out on Masseys site for Johnstons horses?

mike65

For 08/09

March--37

---

11

---

29.7%
April----67

---

20

---

29.9%
May----98

---

11

---

11.2%
June----101

---

9

---

8.9%
July

---

82

---

5

---

6.1%
August--44

---

5

---

11.4%
Sept----20

---

3

---

15.0%
Oct

---

17

---

0

---

0.0%

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

For 08/09

March--37

---

11

---

29.7%
April----67

---

20

---

29.9%
May----98

---

11

---

11.2%
June----101

---

9

---

8.9%
July

---

82

---

5

---

6.1%
August--44

---

5

---

11.4%
Sept----20

---

3

---

15.0%
Oct

---

17

---

0

---

0.0%

That looks to me like Johnstons horses should be backed in 3 Year Old Handicaps early in the season. That ties in with the stable profile of always having them fit.

Nulty

Forgot to post result


Corsica 12f 1st @ 4/7

(Available at EVENS early morn)

Bank +0.9

Nulty

Chester May 5th

Mister Angry 12f 7th @ 14/1

Bank -0.9

POINTBREAK

Saw an interesting stat for Mark Johnstons 3yr Old Handicappers at Brighton.
27% Strike Rate.......

POINTBREAK

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=65814473#post65814473

You guys might be interested in this.

Nulty

York May 14th 4:55

Dancing Dude 12f

5th @ 100/30

Bank -1.3pts

Nulty

Sandown May 20

Atlantic Tiger 14f

3rd @ 7/2

Haydock 22 May

Rawnaq 12f

6th @ 6/1

Bank -3.3