PP unbelievable Cheltenham Money Back offer

myflipflops

Generally i think Paddy Power money back offers are rubbish (Money back on over/under throw ins market if Robbie Keane scores the second goal as an OG with a bicycke kick in the 23rd minute) and they are getting old as a marketing tool but the Cheltenham Money Back offer is the best I've ever seen in the industry:

This Banker Won't Swindle You
Applies to 'Win or Each Way' market only.
Applies to win singles and the win part of EW singles bets.
Singles only.
Max refund per customer £200/€300.
Excludes any other extra markets.
If Dunguib does not run in this race, the SP Favourite will replace him for the purposes of this special.
Applies to bets placed after 9am, Monday 1st March 2010.
Excludes tote bets


That's money back on all loser if the 4/6 favorite wins!!. I know nothing about horse racing but I'll be having a couple of 300 win bets on the 2nd/3rd favorites with this.

Closest thing I've seen to this in terms of value was VC offering money back in the Grand National a few years ago if your horse fell.


http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5g6sIBZw-bbKCbwmCZUeY3_R-tQEA

x PyRo

Dunguib will win though. You'd be aswell lump on him.

applehunter

I'll be having a few quid on Oscar Whisky.

Has been beating Punjabi on the gallops.

radharc

I agree, it's the best offer I've seen too. I remember they did the same with Cousin Vinny last year and I couldn't believe it then but to do it for a 4/6 fav is unreal. Considering you're taking 60% of the book out and the fact that 2 or 3 of the top 5 in the betting prob won't run it seems too good to be true

Warper

Great offer alright

What should one do? Back say Get me out of here and Oscar Whisky e/w? If either gets placed you are in profit, be it only a 25% return but the upside is getting at least 50% back if Dunguib wins kinda thing.

okidoki987

Are they NRNB?

myflipflops

Warper wrote: »

Great offer alright

What should one do? Back say Get me out of here and Oscar Whisky e/w? If either gets placed you are in profit, be it only a 25% return but the upside is getting at least 50% back if Dunguib wins kinda thing.

I'll be doing something along these lines. I have no idea about racing so couldn't pick the each way value to save my life but I'll ask somebody who knows.

Moro Man

radharc wrote: »

I agree, it's the best offer I've seen too. I remember they did the same with Cousin Vinny last year and I couldn't believe it then but to do it for a 4/6 fav is unreal. Considering you're taking 60% of the book out and the fact that 2 or 3 of the top 5 in the betting prob won't run it seems too good to be true

Will this offer stand on the day?

If it does surely you could back all the other horses in the race and be guaranteed a profit?

Or money back if he wins

Moro Man

Just Did a rough calculation

Horse Price % Stake Return
1 4/6 60 n/a n/a
2 9/1 10 41.62 416.16
3 14/1 6.67 27.74 416.16
4 14/1 6.67 27.74 416.16
5 20/1 4.76 19.82 416.16
6 20/1 4.76 19.82 416.16
7 25/1 3.85 16.01 416.16
8 25/1 3.85 16.01 416.16
9 33/1 2.94 12.24 416.16
10 33/1 2.94 12.24 416.16
11 33/1 2.94 12.24 416.16
12 33/1 2.94 12.24 416.16
13 50/1 1.96 8.16 416.16
14 50/1 1.96 8.16 416.16
15 50/1 1.96 8.16 416.16
16 66/1 1.49 6.21 416.16
17 66/1 1.49 6.21 416.16
18 66/1 1.49 6.21 416.16
19 66/1 1.49 6.21 416.16
20 100/1 0.99 4.12 416.16
21 100/1 0.99 4.12 416.16
22 100/1 0.99 4.12 416.16
23 100/1 0.99 4.12 416.16
24 100/1 0.99 4.12 416.16
25 100/1 0.99 4.12 416.16
26 100/1 0.99 4.12 416.16
27 100/1 0.99 4.12 416.16
totals 132.09 300.00











The small print says the max refund is 300 euro per customer. When they finally realise what a howler the clown has gone and done I'd imagine they will enforce this very rigidly.

So I used excel to plot out the above.

I've made a market for a 27 runner field and it's running at about 33% overround. This is probably what will be on offer on the day.

It's set up so that whatever horse wins you get the same return. So if Dunguib stays a 4/6 shot and the overround is 33% back all the other horses in the race to win the same amount with a total stake of 300 euro and if he gets beat you'll get 416 euro back.

169

what happens if you have a e/w bet on the second fav at 10/1 and it finishes second to Dunquib:

do they pay out on the e/w bet or

you get a refund

tatoo

169 wrote: »

what happens if you have a e/w bet on the second fav at 10/1 and it finishes second to Dunquib:

do they pay out on the e/w bet or

you get a refund

re the above ;

The win part of your bet will be refunded
the place part will be settled as normal , presumably 1/4 odds ,

CityMan2010

PP is no fool....it looks good..ok so you lump big, bigger than you ever would on the expectation that Dunguib wins...what if he doesnt? You've probably put on way over your maximum bet and blown it....OK as pointed out, you can cover the field, and get money back...will the High Street shops take such bets? Doubt it...I dont bet on the net...but watch the small print there also....

OK you guys prb know a lot more than me, but for the relative infrequent better, PP is trying to mug the punter into thinking Dunguib will win, hence a free bet....what odds is Dunguib to fall? Good luck anways...and a profitable Chelters to you all...

myflipflops

CityMan2010 wrote: »

OK you guys prb know a lot more than me, but for the relative infrequent better, PP is trying to mug the punter into thinking Dunguib will win, hence a free bet....what odds is Dunguib to fall? Good luck anways...and a profitable Chelters to you all...

All punter backing this offer will hope Dungiub falls or doesn't win. They'll having backed other horses.

For the mug punter, PP is trying to make sure that the first bet they make on Cheltenham this year is with them. If they do this, all the bets they ave with Cheltenham will be with them too and plenty of other business on racing and sports past Cheltenham too.

The level of publicity this is gaining will also result in lots of new accounts.

Paddy Power plc and all other bookmakers aren't stupid. They aren;t doing this to be nice or give back moeny. They feel that the offer will be a profitable venture for them in the long run when all publicity and potential future earnings from customers are taken into account. It's still an enormously piece of value if you place a careful bet.

Nulty

Goddammit!

Get Me Out Of Here is 11/2 now!

Would have gone in at 7/1 without blinking but everyone else was quicker than me:rolleyes:

thesandeman

If you are backing against Dunguib I suggest you split your stake between PP and Celtic. If Dunguib wins you get your stake back from PP. If Dunguib loses and your selection loses you get your stake back from Celtic. If your selection wins your laughing all the way to the bank.

myflipflops

thesandeman wrote: »

If you are backing against Dunguib I suggest you split your stake between PP and Celtic. If Dunguib wins you get your stake back from PP. If Dunguib loses and your selection loses you get your stake back from Celtic. If your selection wins your laughing all the way to the bank.

WTF?? When did this offer start??

I'm now waiting for a company to just offer " Money back if your bet does not win"!

thesandeman

Lol. I only spotted it yesterday. Long may the 'bookie war' continue. Handy for me cos the two shops are next door to each other. Just dont know if I can oppose Dunguib.

winslow

thesandeman wrote: »

If you are backing against Dunguib I suggest you split your stake between PP and Celtic. If Dunguib wins you get your stake back from PP. If Dunguib loses and your selection loses you get your stake back from Celtic. If your selection wins your laughing all the way to the bank.

I have not heard of celtic before. Are they a reputable firm, and does anyone know how long they have been around?

Also, would you happen to have a link to this offer, I couldn't seem to get past their main page and they don't appear to offer online wagering?.

Thanks.

thesandeman

They dont do online. The have quite a few shops and phone betting. Owned by ex TD Ivan Yates so I dont know if you call that reputable or not lol. If you check Aertel page 666 on telly its all there.

winslow

thesandeman wrote: »

They dont do online. The have quite a few shops and phone betting. Owned by ex TD Ivan Yates so I dont know if you call that reputable or not lol. If you check Aertel page 666 on telly its all there.

Thanks.

I live in Canada now, so it has to be online for me.

thesandeman

Ah right. No free bets for you so lol.

whatsupdoc?

If Dunguib loses and your selection loses you get your stake back from Celtic. If your selection wins your laughing all the way to the bank.

You sure that's right from Celtic?
I thought I read it as the same PP offer, Money Back if Dunguib wins?

Celtic have about 40 shops mostly Munster afaik, closed Tallaght, Dundalk & Drogheda recently though.

Hills are NRNB but also NO Rule 4.

Alyosha

I have 50 on Oscar Whisky at 11/1 in both PP and Celtic, lay 50 at 16/1 online. I have 50 on Getmeoutofhere at 5/1 in both PP and Celtic, lay 50 at 15/2 online.

If Getmeoutofhere wins I'm up 125. If Oscar Whisky wins I'm up 300. If Dunguib wins I break even. If anyone else wins I break even.

Could double the upside potential of both bets by doubling my stakes, but my Betfair account couldn't handle that sort of liability. Is this a reasonable way about going about this offer or have I missed the boat completely?

thesandeman

whatsupdoc? wrote: »

You sure that's right from Celtic?
I thought I read it as the same PP offer, Money Back if Dunguib wins?

Celtic have about 40 shops mostly Munster afaik, closed Tallaght, Dundalk & Drogheda recently though.

Hills are NRNB but also NO Rule 4.

Yep. It says if Dunguib does NOT win. Aertel 666 sub page 8. Poster in shop as well.

will1977

Alyosha wrote: »

I have 50 on Oscar Whisky at 11/1 in both PP and Celtic, lay 50 at 16/1 online. I have 50 on Getmeoutofhere at 5/1 in both PP and Celtic, lay 50 at 15/2 online.

If Getmeoutofhere wins I'm up 125. If Oscar Whisky wins I'm up 300. If Dunguib wins I break even. If anyone else wins I break even.

Could double the upside potential of both bets by doubling my stakes, but my Betfair account couldn't handle that sort of liability. Is this a reasonable way about going about this offer or have I missed the boat completely?

Correct me if I'm wrong but dont think you can win money if you back at a less price than what you lay at

makker

Alyosha wrote: »

I have 50 on Oscar Whisky at 11/1 in both PP and Celtic, lay 50 at 16/1 online. I have 50 on Getmeoutofhere at 5/1 in both PP and Celtic, lay 50 at 15/2 online.

If Getmeoutofhere wins I'm up 125. If Oscar Whisky wins I'm up 300. If Dunguib wins I break even. If anyone else wins I break even.

Could double the upside potential of both bets by doubling my stakes, but my Betfair account couldn't handle that sort of liability. Is this a reasonable way about going about this offer or have I missed the boat completely?

I think the flows

makker

Alyosha wrote: »

I have 50 on Oscar Whisky at 11/1 in both PP and Celtic, lay 50 at 16/1 online. I have 50 on Getmeoutofhere at 5/1 in both PP and Celtic, lay 50 at 15/2 online.

If Getmeoutofhere wins I'm up 125. If Oscar Whisky wins I'm up 300. If Dunguib wins I break even. If anyone else wins I break even.

Could double the upside potential of both bets by doubling my stakes, but my Betfair account couldn't handle that sort of liability. Is this a reasonable way about going about this offer or have I missed the boat completely?

I think your initial flows are accurate.

However i think that if Duinguib wins, you make €100, as you will get back 2*50 from PP which will cancel the outlay of 2*50 to Celtic. However you will get 2* €50 from your lays on betfair.

Similarily if anyone else wins your PP returned outlays will cancel the Celtic outlays and you will win 100 from the two betfair lays

I could be off the mark here but thats what it seems to me

alitoast

Is Will1977 not right? laying at higher odds on betfair?

whatsupdoc?

Don't forget the B/fair commission.

makker

For a single bet yes, but here the OP is putting money on with two bookies (PP & Celtic), so if we look at the sceanrio where his selection Oscar Whiskey wins then the flows are;

Bet Return
Back €50(PP) @ 11\1 +€550
Back €50(Celtic) @ 11\1 +€550
Lay €50(Betfair)@ 16\1 -€800
Net diference +300

So the OP will be up to the tune of €300.

Furthermore he will receive another €50 as his other selection Getmeoutofhere was beaten so he will get €50 back from Celtic(as his selection was beaten and Duinguib beaten), which will cancel his €50 outlay for Getmeoutofhere to win to PP, but he will recieve €50 from Betfair from his lay of Getmeoutofhere.

Lmao_Man

Can anyone tell me if this offer is also in shops ? I presume it is,but just want to be sure....

I hope its not online only.

Edit - I meant to say the money back if the favourite wins in the 1st race at 1:30 on Tues

Ballyhaunis

Lads was just wondering in the PP special on Dunguib, if you bet EW on another horse who gets placed, will ya get the win stake back with your place bet if Dunguib, as expected, wins??

Verance

Betfred refunding ALL losing bets on this race!!!!

okidoki987

Betfred refunding ALL losing bets on this race

What are the T&C's with this before I go to my Bank Manager

radharc

New a/cs only
Max refund 100 euro
Refund is given as a free bet

okidoki987

Betfred refunding ALL losing bets on this race!!!!

Unfortunately NOT the case
It's a FREE bet to the same stake to a max of 100 but check the conditions below.
Sounds like a new way of advertising the Free bet offer that everybody is doing.

Here are the T&C's
Cheltenham Festival Day 1 - 1st 1000 Customers get an extra £25 free bet! SEE WHAT YOU HAVE TO BET ON BELOW!No Lose Guarantee. Supreme Novice Hurdle 16th March 1.30pm. Bet on any horse in the 1st race with us and if your chosen horse loses, we'll refund it as a FREE BET!
Terms & Conditions
The free bet will appear in your account within 2 business days of settlement of your bets.
The offer is available for online transactions only and only after you have made a new deposit into your account
The offer is available where there is a minimum stake value of £10 to a maximum stake value of £100
Betfred will refund, as a free bet, the win part only of your selection (i.e. £50 e/w bet has a win part equal to £50)
IF I READ THIS RIGHT IF THE HORSE IS 6TH AND YOU HAVE 50 E/W, YOU WILL ONLY GET 50 AS A FREE BET AND NOT THE FULL 100 WHICH IS WHAT YOU HAVE LOST THEREFORE IT'S POINTLESS BACKING THE HORSE EACH WAY?
The offer is available for your first single bet only
Usual free £50 bet not available in conjunction with this offer
You have 30 days to use your free bet once credited to your account. If you do not use it within this period the free bet balance will be removed from your account.
Betfred encourages customers to participate in promotions, but to refrain from abusing them. Abuse of this bonus promotion, which comes to the attention of Betfred, will result in the withdrawal of bonus privileges and account closure.
The offer applies to customers who are over 18 years only.
This offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer.
The offer is open only to the residents of those jurisdictions where participation is legal.
Betfred will not be liable for any technical malfunction
This offer is only open Betfred online customers who are yet to play at any Betfred sportsbook or eGaming products as well as to existing online players who made a new deposit.
The promotion is available only once per customer. The identity of a customer will be determined on the basis of all or any combination of the following: name, mailing address, e-mail address, IP address, credit/charge card number, computer, and any other forms of identification which may be required.
Betfred reserves the right to withhold any bonus payment if it believes that the promotion has been abused and/or where the terms of the offer are not fulfilled, or any irregular betting patterns are found. The decision of Betfred is final.
Betfred reserves the right to withdraw or amend this offer at any time, without prior notice.
Betfred online terms and conditions apply
This offer is not available to residents of Australia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Denmark, Finland, Georgia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Israel, Ivory Coast, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macau, Malaysia, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Taiwan, Thailand, Ukraine and Yugoslavia (Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia) & Kazakhstan.
For customers betting in currencies other then GBP then £100 is as indicated below:
EURO: 100
USD: 150
SEK: 1000
The up to £25 free bet: (1st 1000 customers only)
We will match your new deposit and 1st bet on the Supreme Novice Hurdle up to £25. The free bet will appear in your account between 19:25pm -19:55 GMT, and the bet must be placed before 20:00 GMT, on the Liverpool v Portmouth 1st goal scorer market only.
Betfred reserves the right to withdraw or amend this offer at any time, without prior notice.

radharc

This condition made me smile, they're not going to leave themselves open to any arbers or free bet merchants anyway!

okidoki987 wrote: »

This offer is not available to residents of Australia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Denmark, Finland, Georgia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Israel, Ivory Coast, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macau, Malaysia, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Taiwan, Thailand, Ukraine and Yugoslavia (Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia) & Kazakhstan.

okidoki987

The more I read this offer the worse it looks.
In effect they will give you a FREE bet (sorry force you) to the same WIN ONLY Stake on the 1st goalscorer Liverpool v Portsmouth whether you want to back this or not.(Torres at 5/2 would be most popular).
Best Price 3's with Coral.
SG 9/2 with Betfred, 11/2 out there.

They do a Free £50 bet to new accounts anyway (not forced on a event they pick)
but this doesn't apply to this bet.

JOKE:mad:

Nothing wrong with an ARB

radharc

I thought the Liverpool goalscorer condition applied only to the 25 bonus they were giving to the first 1000 a/cs to sign up? I think the 100 can be put on any event within 30 days.

Still a ****e offer though

okidoki987

Yep - correction
Free bet/refund of 100 can go on anything (within 30 days) and if you one of the first thousand, then you can bet your Free 25 on 1st goalscorer tonight
(what happens if they don't get 1000 people signing up today?).
One thing though I can't find is what should be there - only winnings from Free 25 stake bet get refunded and not the stake which is what is in most t'c's on these free offers.

Verance

Hmmm the Betfred offer should only be used for people backing Dunguib I suppose. I'll be having a hundred on Dunguib anyway and even if he loses I'll get a €100 free bet for the rest of the festival.

okidoki987

Maybe but I think Dunguib will hit evens at some stage tomorrow, so I wouldn't rush into the bet.
Are they guaranteed odds?

okidoki987

okidoki987 wrote: »

Yep - correction
Free bet/refund of 100 can go on anything (within 30 days)

Would the 100 euro refund have to be placed in one bet or could you have say 5 20 euro bets etc. Its not very clear to me from reading the t&c's.

winslow

From Paddy Power's site:

Paddy Power will refund the average stake of multiple single bets on this market; if, at our sole discretion, we feel you are abusing this offer.

What do they mean by this? If you put a wager on every horse to total €300, you can weight it so you are guranteed a payout of at least €400.

When they say they will refund the average stake of multiple bets, does that mean they will average out all the wagers and just return one bet which is the average of all your bets?

Is this their escape clause, or am I reading it incorrectly?

okidoki987

Just do the bets in different shops

CityMan2010

I cant see Dunguib winning this..close to the off!! Good luck!

CityMan2010

I cant beleive that so many were taken in by this seeming "unbelievable" offer....And yes, I had Menorah....

REFLINE1

CityMan2010 wrote: »

I cant see Dunguib winning this..close to the off!! Good luck!

Menorah 12-1 took it

Nulty

What are you thinking? Are you seriously aftertiming less than 5 minutes after the race. Cop on and put your bull**** away.:mad:

I can promise you I'm not talking through my pocket

CityMan2010

Next Selections: Riverside Theatre, Character Building, Binocular, Sizing Australia, Sway

REFLINE1 wrote: »

Menorah 12-1 took it

CityMan2010

Ooo. a bit sore there dude....

Nulty wrote: »

What are you thinking? Are you seriously aftertiming less than 5 minutes after the race. Cop on and put your bull**** away.:mad:

I can promise you I'm not talking through my pocket