PP to refund losing bets if Dunguib wins Supreme

RichieLawlor

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Colonel Sanders

Just saw this online. Crazy offer. If I remember correctly they did the same last year with Cousin Vinny. Assuming an over round of about 120%, Dunguib will account for over 50% of that. Leaves you with the rest of the runners in a 70% book. Back them all and get your money back if the jolly goes in

knighted_1

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Just saw this online. Crazy offer. If I remember correctly they did the same last year with Cousin Vinny. Assuming an over round of about 120%, Dunguib will account for over 50% of that. Leaves you with the rest of the runners in a 70% book. Back them all and get your money back if the jolly goes in

read your post again and see why that wont work

Colonel Sanders

knighted_1 wrote: »

read your post again and see why that wont work

I meant back everything apart from Dunguib, that works. Guarantee a profit if Dunguib doesn't win and no loss if he wins

prettyboy81

we all remember what happened cousin vinny....he got "moby dick" on the boat on the way over ha!

PP are gonna generate huge publicity for themselves....hopefully the bookie gets bashed....

knighted_1

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I meant back everything apart from Dunguib, that works. Guarantee a profit if Dunguib doesn't win and no loss if he wins

if u back everything and dunguib falls and you win at 4/1 how is that a profit?

assuming 30 runners ,u back 29 at 10 euro each =290

dunguib falls or gets beaten
and even if a 20/1 shot wins you sill lose 80 euros

i dont think you thought this thru

Colonel Sanders

knighted_1 wrote: »

if u back everything and dunguib falls and you win at 4/1 how is that a profit?

assuming 30 runners ,u back 29 at 10 euro each =290

dunguib falls or gets beaten
and even if a 20/1 shot wins you sill lose 80 euros

i dont think you thought this thru

you have a 70% book without Dunguib (possibly less). You adjust your stake depending on each horse's price to ensure you make the same level of profit on all horses

If he loses you win, if he wins you don't lose

RichieLawlor

knighted_1 wrote: »

if u back everything and dunguib falls and you win at 4/1 how is that a profit?

assuming 30 runners ,u back 29 at 10 euro each =290

dunguib falls or gets beaten
and even if a 20/1 shot wins you sill lose 80 euros

i dont think you thought this thru

knighted_1 wrote: »

i dont think IVE thought this thru

FYP there

Colonel Sanders

Eg At the weekend The Nightingale was a 4/6 favourite in the Pendil novice chase

Assume for illustration that powers were offering this special (warning all euro figures are rounded to 2 decimal places

SP over round was 108%. The Nightingale started 4/6 => 60% of the total SP book

The rest of the runners made up 48.4%

Place the following bets:

12.15 on Othermix at 16/1 => returns 206.51 if winning
34.42 on Mount Oscar at 5/1 => returns 206.51 if winning
37.55 on Viking Rebel at 9/2 => returns 206.51 if winning
15.89 on Red Admiral at 12/1 => returns 206.51 if winning

You bet 100 and get a return of 206.51 if The Nightingale loses. You get your 100 back if The Nightingale won (which he did)

knighted_1

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Eg At the weekend The Nightingale was a 4/6 favourite in the Pendil novice chase

Assume for illustration that powers were offering this special (warning all euro figures are rounded to 2 decimal places

SP over round was 108%. The Nightingale started 4/6 => 60% of the total SP book

The rest of the runners made up 48.4%

Place the following bets:

12.15 on Othermix at 16/1 => returns 206.51 if winning
34.42 on Mount Oscar at 5/1 => returns 206.51 if winning
37.55 on Viking Rebel at 9/2 => returns 206.51 if winning
15.89 on Red Admiral at 12/1 => returns 206.51 if winning

You bet 100 and get a return of 206.51 if The Nightingale loses. You get your 100 back if The Nightingale won (which he did)

now do that with a 29 runner field -

mdwexford

Will only be about 20 runners.

RichieLawlor

knighted_1 wrote: »

now do that with a 29 runner field -

Your really not getting this, it doesnt matter about the amount of runners, its to do with the favourites % of the book

Colonel Sanders

knighted_1 wrote: »

now do that with a 29 runner field -

Its a pretty simple calc

The amount you have on each horse is calculated as follows:

Work out the percentage each horse adds to the over round eg 16/1 => 5.88%

Add up all these percentages (excluding the percentage implied by Dunguib's price). If the figure is less than 100% you have an arb. Assume we get 70% after removing Dunguib

To work out how much to have on each horse you divide each horses percentage total percentage (excluding Dunguib)

In this example you have 100*5.88%/70% = 8.40 on your 16/1 shot

Do the same calc for each horse

Only problem is your staking plan changes as the prices do

Colonel Sanders

if I can manage to upload an excel work book I'll give you a tool to do it automatically

Colonel Sanders

Right hope this upload works! I have designed a spreadsheet. You can enter a max of 39 runners which will sort you out for any race in England where you want to add up all prices bar the favourite

Enter the odds in cells B2:B40 and it will calculate the stake you need to have on each horse (it assumes you're 'investing' €100, obviously if you want more on increase accordingly) if the book is under round. If the book is over round it tells you that there's not an Arb on. If a horse is 16/1 enter '16', for 9/2 enter 4.5, for 13/8 enter 1.625 etc etc

I knocked this up in a few seconds so there may well be an error. Let me know if there is

The prcies in the sheet are from last year's Ryanair Chase and how you could have staked at SP assuming a similar offer was in play

Colonel Sanders

The night before the race I'll upload it again with the actual declarations in the spreadsheet

there won't be 39 horses opposing Dunguib, leave any excess spaces blank, do not put zeros in!

UrbanSea

What's meant by the book %?

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

What's meant by the book %?

Check it out

krustydoyle

Powers are hardly doing this special because of the possibility of dunguib running in the Champion Hurdle???

Now don't all jump down my throat!!!!

I just posted it to hear your opinions....:cool::cool:

Colonel Sanders

Wait until the final decs, no alterior motive then. I think its more a case of getting punters in the door or depositing cash into internet accounts on the basis they'll continue to punt with Powers throughout the festival

the groutch

krustydoyle wrote: »

Powers are hardly doing this special because of the possibility of dunguib running in the Champion Hurdle???

Now don't all jump down my throat!!!!

I just posted it to hear your opinions....:cool::cool:

alot more bookies have dunguid priced up (albeit with a run), and there are no real superstars this year, I reckon if the CH was run off a fast gallop he'd have a squeak

krustydoyle

the groutch wrote: »

alot more bookies have dunguid priced up (albeit with a run), and there are no real superstars this year, I reckon if the CH was run off a fast gallop he'd have a squeak

That was my main point cos most of the bookies have him priced up for it so ye never really know even though fenton says he wont go in the Champion Hurdle.. He'd def have a squeak if there was a savage gallop on but so would Go Native and Sublimity in my opinion...

Itsdacraic

Remember with this special, the max refund is €300 per customer not per bet.

Morgans

Dunguib and the champion.

Colonel Sanders

The 300 limit can be gotten around by using a good few shops and an online account

Itsdacraic

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The 300 limit can be gotten around by using a good few shops and an online account

Obviously, but was just putting it up there as a word of warning in case somebody went off and put on all the bets on their online account and then wondered why they were only getting 300 back on a 1k outlay.

radharc

Personally I'm more interested in a big payday than guaranteeing myself a smaller profit so I'm going to back the next 4 in the market and know I'll have a combined 21/10 shot which in reality should be more like 1/8.

RichieLawlor

radharc wrote: »

Personally I'm more interested in a big payday than guaranteeing myself a smaller profit so I'm going to back the next 4 in the market and know I'll have a combined 21/10 shot which in reality should be more like 1/8.

Dunguib will win. The more you put down the more you get back

Colonel Sanders

if you think Dunguib is a good thing get as much out of the arb as you can. Back the field to guarantee a profit of X if Dunguib gets beat and then throw X on Dunguib at best odds

cson

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Dunguib will win.

Care to expand on that? The reason I ask is that you said the same thing about Master Minded earlier in the season and he was beaten (albeit by a rib problem rather than his opponents).

RichieLawlor

cson wrote: »

Care to expand on that? The reason I ask is that you said the same thing about Master Minded earlier in the season and he was beaten (albeit by a rib problem rather than his opponents).

He can run really fast

cson

A lot of 2 mile hurdlers can run fast.

Btw;

http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=43206

Edit: Morgans i before with the Sporting Life link

RichieLawlor

cson wrote: »

A lot of 2 mile hurdlers can run fast.

Dunguib will run faster though. Hes a machine

Whyno

Dunguib could pull the horse box around prestbury park and still win.Fact:D

Dunguib is reported to be "absolutely bouncing" ahead of his date with destiny in the Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Philip Fenton has categorically ruled out an attempt at the Champion Hurdle this year and issued a warning to his rivals that he believes Dunguib was below his best when winning the Deloitte Novice Hurdle on the bridle.

Fenton said: "For some reason - of course we were satisfied that he won - we just felt he wasn't as good as he could have been but he certainly is at the moment, he's absolutely bouncing. We don't think he was at his best at Leopardstown, he was a little bit flatter than he normally would be but at the moment he is a livewire."

The trainer continued: "His jumping could have been an awful lot better at Leopardstown. We have schooled him since, not intensive or anything, and thankfully we are very happy with him.

"If his jumping had been slicker at Leopardstown we might have considered the Champion Hurdle, but on the jumping part of his performance we decided to stick to the novice route.

"I wouldn't call this an ordinary Champion Hurdle, there's an awful lot of good horses there so that is why we are sticking to the novice route. The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is where we are going and we have got tunnel vision for that, that's his race.

"We are of the opinion that he was kind of dossing through his last race, he was so switched off and some people may say why didn't Brian (O'Connell) set him alight at one or two of his hurdles.

"Brian's number one job that day was to get him settled and relaxed, he did that part of it."

GampDub

Just wondering, if you took Dunguib out of the race - where would your money be???

Personally I'll be having a little E/W on Blackstairmountain... no other reason other than it seems to suit some of that stats and in my (limited) opinion seems the kind of horse that would normally do well in this race!!!

Colonel Sanders

Visit to Fenton's stable up on the RPTV site now.

TB1809

What are the risks if you back all the horses, there is a chance that Dunguib could be withdrawn before the start meaning a rule 4 deduction or a new book.

PP will move the refund special to the SP Fav if Dunguib does not run, but the R4 worrys me.

knighted_1

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The night before the race I'll upload it again with the actual declarations in the spreadsheet

there won't be 39 horses opposing Dunguib, leave any excess spaces blank, do not put zeros in!

think every one is missing the point here - this offer with paddy power is ANTE POST only so for your plan to back the field you have to back before the final decs - so at the moment you have to back 63 horses to lock in a profit -with the 300 limit not worth it

when the decs are made this money back offer wont be there

email powers and they will confirm

Juwwi

knighted_1 wrote: »

think every one is missing the point here - this offer with paddy power is ANTE POST only so for your plan to back the field you have to back before the final decs - so at the moment you have to back 63 horses to lock in a profit -with the 300 limit not worth it

when the decs are made this money back offer wont be there

email powers and they will confirm

where does it say antepost only in the terms and conditions?

knighted_1

robbie1977 wrote: »

where does it say antepost only in the terms and conditions?

all betting at the moment is ante post ,where does it say they will keep it going after decs ? it doesnt so as i said email them and they will confirm

knighted_1

Rules
All racing ante-post bets are accepted and settled on a Rules of Racing basis only. Ante-post bets are accepted at quoted prices, up to and including the day prior to the event, on the basis of all in, run or not, entered or not .Therefore selections not taking part in the race/event concerned are losers. Ante-post bets are those placed at our quoted prices on horses and prior to the race becoming classed as ‘day of event’ (day of event is a term used to describe the time at which overnight declarations are made, usually 10am on the day preceding the race (or two days for certain Group 1 races) for horse racing and the day of the race for greyhounds). All bets placed after the overnight declaration stage are settled in accordance with our early prices/day of race rules.

Colonel Sanders

Yes, all bets after the final decs will be subject to day of race rules but the Dunguib special will still apply according to Paddy Powers' original announcement. They also did the same offer last year with Cousin Vinny

Colonel Sanders

Powers are NRNB now

Original announcement:

BOOKIES OFFERS DUNGUIB CARROT

Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has launched an eyecatching special ahead of the Cheltenham Festival by announcing they will return all losing bets in the Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle if the red-hot favourite Dunguib wins.

Philip Fenton's seven-year-old landed the Festival bumper nearly 12 months ago in extraordinary fashion and remains unbeaten over timber, adding two Grade Ones to his haul in the process.

Dunguib is currently 4-6 with Paddy Power, who offered a similar cashback special on 9-4 favourite Cousin Vinny last year, and is likely to be heavily backed to get the Emerald Isle off to a flyer in the first race of the week.

"I didn't sleep a wink last night, I still can't quite believe that we are doing this money back special," said Paddy Power himself.

"Anyone having a bet in the Supreme with any other bookmaker should consult their psychiatrist immediately!

"If, or when, Dunguib wins, it's hard to say just how much the result will cost us by both paying out on him and returning losing stakes, but it'll be at least a million quid and possibly even double that.

"Punters will rightly go wild for this special."

No mention of it only applying ante post. The Paddy Power link above shows that it applies still even though they are now NRNB

Colonel Sanders

knighted_1 wrote: »

think every one is missing the point here - this offer with paddy power is ANTE POST only so for your plan to back the field you have to back before the final decs - so at the moment you have to back 63 horses to lock in a profit -with the 300 limit not worth it

when the decs are made this money back offer wont be there

email powers and they will confirm

Incorrect

knighted_1 wrote: »

all betting at the moment is ante post ,where does it say they will keep it going after decs ? it doesnt so as i said email them and they will confirm

They have been non runner no bet for at least the last few hours at least and certainly before your post

knighted_1

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Yes, all bets after the final decs will be subject to day of race rules but the Dunguib special will still apply according to Paddy Powers' original announcement. They also did the same offer last year with Cousin Vinny

if you back dunguib and he doesnt run your bet is transfered to the SP fav ,so that shags the bet up also see terms below


Paddy Power Terms and Conditions:

Applies to 'Win or Each Way' market only. - Applies to win singles and the win part of EW singles bets.
Singles only.
Max refund per customer £200/E300.
Excludes any other extra markets.
If Dunguib does not run in this race, the SP Favourite will replace him for the purposes of this special.
Applies to bets placed after 9am, Monday 1st March 2010.
Excludes tote bets.


more to follow .......

the groutch

TB1809 wrote: »

PP will move the refund special to the SP Fav if Dunguib does not run, but the R4 worrys me.

no rule 4 on antepost

Juwwi

knighted_1 wrote: »

if you back dunguib and he doesnt run your bet is transfered to the SP fav ,so that shags the bet up also see terms below


Paddy Power Terms and Conditions:

Applies to 'Win or Each Way' market only. - Applies to win singles and the win part of EW singles bets.
Singles only.
Max refund per customer £200/E300.
Excludes any other extra markets.
If Dunguib does not run in this race, the SP Favourite will replace him for the purposes of this special.
Applies to bets placed after 9am, Monday 1st March 2010.
Excludes tote bets.


more to follow .......

where does it say more to follow?

knighted you are giving false information out

Colonel Sanders

should read 'page'. Damn predictive text

knighted_1

and this one is my favorite rule

Paddy Power will refund the average stake of multiple single bets on this market; if, at our sole discretion, we feel you are abusing this offer.


so if you back every horse all you will get back is your stake -so they have that angle covered

mdwexford

knighted_1 wrote: »

think every one is missing the point here - this offer with paddy power is ANTE POST only so for your plan to back the field you have to back before the final decs - so at the moment you have to back 63 horses to lock in a profit -with the 300 limit not worth it

when the decs are made this money back offer wont be there

email powers and they will confirm

You are wrong, stop spreading false rumours when you dont know the facts.

This money back offer is valid the whole way to post time on Sup Nov day.

the groutch

btw, as an aside, I've backed Dunguib for next year's champion hurdle @ 6/1