Tips from a free trial

mitsubishi

Best Recommendation:

4.30 Lingfield England, 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed and take early price now)
One bet only for us today.

Nick Littmoden's England looks a fascinating entry for the six furlong maiden at Lingfield. The selection was entered in some good races last summer for his debut, and was sent off a short price under Jamie Spencer for his first run at Yarmouth, in a Novice Stakes which has worked out well. He looked pretty green on all his three runs in maidens, which were all hot races contested by horses who have gone on to better things. Two things interest me. Firstly, he plainly looked like a horse who needed more time to fill out his frame, he is a big enough horse who travelled fairly well before weakening in all three starts. Secondly, he didn't seem to be in love with the good / good to firm ground he raced on, on all three occasions. He has yet to be involved in a finish and I just thought he wasn't letting himself down as he should be. Being out of Bertolini, he should be suited by artificial surfaces and the more forgiving nature of polytrack should allow him to let himself down better and stretch out into his full stride today.

The Littmoden stable look braced for a better season this year. They did really well on the all weather a few years back and had some good horses but Nick got more into breeding and selling horses when he realised the prize money in the UK was so poor. However, reports are that he has been bitten by the bug again and is set to concentrate more on training again. The evidence is already there: Valkyrie has been running well for the stable, and Kindlelight Sun won for them first time out at the end of January. Alternative Choice was quietly backed for them yesterday, coming back off a break, and ran really well in third, beaten three quarters of a length. Neil Callan has a 16% strike rate for them in the last five seasons and is booked today. Stall two looks a perfect draw and I hope he makes all.

The opposition look average. Two of the older horses can be discounted straight away, the third, Trading Nation, will need to improve to take a hand in my opinion. Mint Whip and Takajan look OR mid 60's types to me and will again need to improve to win. Pippbrook Minster is favourite, but a strong pace fell apart into her lap last time out and she also raced on a sweet spot of ground where a few winners came from on that day - on that basis I think she is too short, although open to improvement, at around 6/4. Penrod Ballantyne is the danger for me, he travels well and will be suited by the step back to 6f. He looks a bit quirky though, he had to be ridden and was given a couple of backhanders around the home turn at Wolves last time out, and he is drawn no better today in stall eight of eight.

England looks good value at 10/1, he could be a cut above these and the price looks too big. I've had a decent each-way bet.

mitsubishi

3rd @ 7,s

mitsubishi

One bet for today.

Roshina represents Jo Crowley and ran really well on her first run for Jo last time out at Kempton. She finished third in a race in which the winner has since won a good handicap impressively, the second has won a handicap impressively, the sixth has won a maiden by eight lengths, and the seventh has finished third in a fair maiden, improving a stone on his debut run in the process. Clearly, the race is working out very well and you have to question the handicapper as to why he has dropped Roshina a very generous 5lbs for that run. She steps back in trip to seven furlongs today but had no problem keeping tabs with good horses last time, briefly tapped for toe and caught in a pocket before she stayed on for third. It has to be remembered that she had a lot more experience than those horses, but her new handicap mark looks like one she can win off if we sift through her Irish form. There is also the hope that she will come on for that run in terms of fitness.

She is drawn one today and I'm hoping Ian Mongan again keeps her fairly prominent, keeps things simple and sends her on coming around the home turn. Lady Kent, the favourite, looks the danger and on their recent form I would have it between the pair. In an eight runner race with three places paid, she looks a great value bet at 11/2. I don't expect the price to last so get on early.

Members, keep an eye out for the next installment of our Cheltenham ante post portfolio later today!

Best Recommendation:

4.10 Lingfield Roshina, 3pts each-way @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

mitsubishi

3rd backed down to 3,s

Juwwi

Members, keep an eye out for the next installment of our Cheltenham ante post portfolio later today!


any sign of the cheltenham tips yet?

mitsubishi

Two confident bets for today.

Sinbad The Sailor was far more impressive last time out at Wolverhampton then the eventual margin of victory suggests. He took lengths out of the opposition on the home turn in the manner of a horse who is well handicapped. I reckon claimer Matthew Davies sent him on too soon and in the end it told, Sir Sandicliffe was able to make inroads on the defecit towards the finish line, the pair well clear. However, ridden with more restraint Sinbad could have won by a greater distance. Sir Sandicliffe bolstered the form, winning well next time out, and despite the step up in class and a ten pound rise in the weights, the selection looks capable of following up here.

Betfred's early 15/8 about the Mark Johnston improver Seamstress for the 7f handicap at Kempton looks too big. I think he'll reverse form with Robust Wish, getting plenty of weight from that rival and having improved since. Tiradito and Transfixed both need to improve to win and I can't see either doing so. And Clive Brittain's stable are still a bit hit and miss, Niran was a good 2yo but he will need to be 100% fit and ready to beat Seamstress first time out. I think the Johnston horse is the one to beat, progeny of Pivotal do really well at Kempton and 15/8 looks a big price - it is also guaranteed.

Best Recommendation:

4.25 Lingfield Sinbad The Sailor, 6pts win @ 10/3 (Generally, get guaranteed)

8.00 Kempton Seamstress, 6pts win @ 15/8 (Betfred, guaranteed)

mitsubishi

More profits yesterday with Sinbad The Sailor winning well. Our 10/3 looked huge as he was supported into 7/4.

A massive four bets for us today. Be very careful to stick to the correct staking as always! It is particularly important on days like today. One winner will put us in profit for the day, two winners and we're quids in.

Dan Bouy stays three miles plus over hurdles and I've been waiting for him to step up to a marathon trip at Southwell for a few weeks now. He can be keen, but if he does settle today he has every chance off this handicap mark in this contest. 13/2 looks a little big, I'd price him up as a 5/1 chance myself and he is worth a small win bet.

Tony Culhane is riding Southwell as well as anyone these days and it is interesting he shows up for just the one ride today, on Kledester in the 7f handicap. The selection is a course and distance winner, and represents a small stable who have had a couple of recent runners go well. His reappearance and debut for the yard at Wolverhampton was encouraging, and the 6/1 available looks fair value in a moderate race.

Harting Hill is the bet of the day, at Kempton. He looks like the sort who saves a bit for himself and he travelled like a horse who is ahead of the handicapper when winning last time. He is better than a 62 rated handicapper and if he responds as well for Hayley Turner as George Baker, he should win. 11/4 is too big, I make him a 2/1 shot.

Drubinca represents a trainer whose horses often improve for their handicap debut, and if the handbrake is off today, this son of Dubai Destination should improve for the step up to a mile and the polytrack surface. His run at Warwick last time out was eye catching, he kept changing his legs and did not enjoy the good to firm ground. That contest has worked out well and he is probably better than a low grade handicapper - it is just a matter of when he will show his best.

Best Recommendation:

3.15 Southwell Dan Bouy, 3pts win @ 13/2 (William Hill, guaranteed)

4.50 Southwell Kladester, 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

8.10 Kempton Harting Hill, 5pts win @ 11/4 (William Hill, guaranteed)

9.10 Kempton Drubinca, 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

thesandeman

Cheers for the tips. Do you mind me asking who are you, whats your strike rate etc.?

mitsubishi

thesandeman wrote: »

Cheers for the tips. Do you mind me asking who are you, whats your strike rate etc.?

My name is mitsubishi same as my 00 car that should tell you enough

digme

mitsubishi wrote: »

My name is mitsubishi same as my 00 car that should tell you enough

Is that you bertie?

thesandeman

mitsubishi wrote: »

My name is mitsubishi same as my 00 car that should tell you enough

Must be Mel Collier so. He has plenty of Zeros lol.

mitsubishi

No return yesterday but we didn't go too heavy on any of the bets and we're still nicely up for the week.


Two bets today.


Magic Mille ran really well on her fibresand debut last time out and if she had had the assistance of a stronger jockey, may have overhauled the eventual winner. She looks well handicapped off a mark of 50 and gets the services of a 5lb claimer today who rides this track well and is worth his claim. The market principals looks to have been priced up on stable and stable form rather than what they have achieved on the track, and odds of 7/1 on Magic Millie improving again look too big.


Highland River looks excellent value at 14/1+ in the 1m4f handicap. The selection has been in good form lately and ran a decent race over course and distance last time in a better race than this. He holds Mister Frosty by six lengths on form over 1m4f here two runs ago, so quite why that rival is priced up as half the price Highland River is beggars belief. The small stable do well with their runners at the course and although Highland River will need to improve again to beat Merrion Tiger, his profile this year suggests that he should not be 16/1 to do so.


Best Recommendation:

3.40 Southwell Magic Millie, 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

5.15 Southwell Highland River, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Sporting Bet, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

mitsubishi

The Ryanair Chase looks a pretty competitive event at first glance but the more I have analysed the top end of the market, the more I see horses who are doubtful for the race or have question marks over their recent form. Barber Shop has been a bit of a nearly horse at the top level but with the likes of Kauto Star and Denman otherwise engaged, he could get his chance to shine in this race. 6/1 is the current price and I can see him going off around 4/1 or less on the day, depending who shows up, so I reckon it is a wise move to get on ante post now. The selection jumps and travels well, has very good course form as well as recent form, and represents a top festival trainer.

Alberta's Run is not certain to line up but if he does, he will surely be sent off a lot shorter than the 25/1 currently available. A former Sun Alliance winner, he has put in a number of decent performances this season and if Johnjoe O'Neill is tempted by this easier assignment, he looks like an excellent value saver.

Best Recommendation:

Barber Shop, 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally)

Albertas's Run, 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally)