income vs expenditure

ei.sdraob

so i threw data provided from dept. of finance budget.gov.ie site into excel

they provides income & expenditure documents containing actual income/expenditure for past year and estimated income/expenditure for new budget year

if there has ever been a graph to illustrate the trouble we are in this might be it



vertical axis is in millions of euro btw


our problems are not as simple as public/private divide (PS only accounts for 40% or so of expenditure)

our problem is very simple, were spending more than were making

the question then becomes (keep Greece in mind) how much and how long can we borrow and afford to borrow (or be allowed for that matter)

our income is down to 2003 levels, while expenditure has almost doubled in that time-frame and is only "projected" (keep in mind how "good" their projections been so far) to stay more or less same as 2009


source for the data & graph (contains all sorts of detailed breakdown of income & expenditure going back to 1996):
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2010/2010.aspx
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2010/Documents/whitepaperfin2010.pdf
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2009/Documents/WhitePaper2009.pdf
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2008/Documents/Whitepaper08.pdf
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2007/Documents/WhitePaper.pdf
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2006/Documents/WhitePaper.pdf
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2005/Documents/EstimatesTables.pdf
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2004/EstimatesTables.aspx
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2003/eTables.aspx
http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2002/EstimatesEuro.aspx


discuss

Sleepy

I think that most accurately depicts two things:

1. How using transaction / stealth taxes in place of income / wealth taxes makes it so easy for revenues to crash quickly.

2. How incompetent this government are at cost cutting. Can you imagine the size and impact of an 'O Leary Report' on this subject?

murphaph

Nice graph, illiustrates the problem quite clearly. Private sector in a state of turmoil, public sector pay increases were clearly based on unsustainable forms of taxation. We need a combination of further (more drastic) pay cuts in the public sector (private sector firms will take care of their own pay cuts or fold) and a move to sustainable taxation (annual property taxes and higher income tax with fewer stealth taxes that people can avoid if they want/try hard enough).

Basically a lowering in the Irish standard of living to a level comensurate with a country with few indigenous industries of any value. What did we all expect? That we could continue to charge top dollar for our labour that can be easily provided in the Czech Republic or Poland for half the price? People in Ireland seem to think a 3 bed semi in a commutable distance to work is some sort of birthright, let me tell you that very few Germans etc. have the same outlook and most expect to end their days in a modest apartment. The psyche is completely different.

Riskymove

our problems are not as simple as public/private divide (PS only accounts for 40% or so of expenditure)

our problem is very simple, were spending more than were making

I am glad to hear you say that

1. How using transaction / stealth taxes in place of income / wealth taxes makes it so easy for revenues to crash quickly.

absolutely, a house of cards was built up in our economy

I think it clearly shows how they went off the rails altogether in 2007 on, partly due to an election year no doubt..but mostly to do with the "living in denial" of what was happeneing before them

they overestimated income by €6bn in 2008 but unforgivably by almost €10bn in 2009 without reducing expenditure?

I mean increasing expenditure by around €5bn a year four years running? madness

one of the other graphs posted by ei.sdraob clearly shows how the 3 key areas to tackle are welfare, health and education; each area is need of a proper review and some key decisions.

ei.sdraob

Riskymove wrote: »

I am glad to hear you say that

as i said before, PS are only a part of the expenses story,

welfare alone is almost as big and has its own share of issues,

and then of course theres the money given to banks and other expenses ( http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2010/Documents/whitepaperfin2010.pdf mentions 4Bln expense to Anglo Irish and 3Bln expense to the National Pension Fund)

unfortunately NAMA and few other large expenses wont appear in these documents and will be (and are) swept under some large rug, in order to "cook" the books
if NAMA was added to these then will make Greece look good

once again all these figures are from the government, who display year on year alot of optimism in their budgets, so who knows how much was "tweaked" here and there

kmick

Thankfully the ECB and world lending markets seem to be currently swallowing the story that we are cutting costs. Brians 4bn in cuts which caused so much trouble and still is can only be the start. At least we are doing something though. Greece have not even started to cut their costs and Italy has been a basket case economy for a decade. The common factor with those two is the high level of corruption endemic in their society. Compared to them we are in a good way.

Riskymove

just one point, the estimated expenditure of €58bn or so of this year is, I think, the figure before the budget changes (i.e. €4bn or so to come off that)

ei.sdraob

Riskymove wrote: »

just one point, the estimated expenditure of €58bn or so of this year is, I think, the figure before the budget changes (i.e. €4bn or so to come off that)

dont think, look

the figure is taken from the budget document itself

which also contains a very detailed breakdown of planned expenditure for 2010



judgyng by how "good" their previous estimates (and how they are always, even the best of times, were on the optimistic side) were, will be lucky if we come in at €60 billion never mind the estimated €57.8 billion figure

Riskymove

ei.sdraob wrote: »

dont think, look

I did

the explanatory notes make it clear that the figures are based on estimates at the time and that any "budgetary decisions" will be reflected in a later revised version

therefore the revised estimates will take into account the changes to pay, welfare, child beenefit etc and see the estimates expenditure reduced accordingly

ei.sdraob

Riskymove wrote: »

I did

the explanatory notes make it clear that the figures are based on estimates at the time and that any "budgetary decisions" will be reflected in a later revised version

therefore the revised estimates will take into account the changes to pay, welfare, child beenefit etc and see the estimates expenditure reduced accordingly

ok no point arguing over estimates will revisit this in a years time

johnnyskeleton

ei.sdraob wrote: »

discuss

The estimated expenditure has no reference to any further bank recapitalisation.

ei.sdraob

yes the income and expenditure figures are totals and include capital (4billion to anglo irish in 2009 out of the 14 billion capital expenditure)

yes the estimate for 2010 does not include any further spending on banks, hence (among other reasons) my skepticism for expenditure in 2010 being lower than 2009

im also not sure which carpet they managed to swept the money spend on AIB and BOI under, theres no mention of them in the report

and of course theres no mention of NAMA...

Dob74

The sad thing is people will be paying 02-07 taxes for the next 30 years through there mortgages.
That 13.5% VAT on ever new house made the books look good for a few years.
Now we have to pay for it.

AlekSmart

People in Ireland seem to think a 3 bed semi in a commutable distance to work is some sort of birthright, let me tell you that very few Germans etc. have the same outlook and most expect to end their days in a modest apartment. The psyche is completely different.

Oh Murphaph I LOVE it when you post such clearheaded stuff which really DOES annoy many of the Gael`s here and elsewhere

Here and on most other Irish Financial and Political fora one will see a constantly recurring theme of the "Right" to own ones House....it`s usually uttered in the same reverential tones that the "good ole boys" of the of American Deep South reserve for their Remington 30-03.

Until we collectively and rapidly retune to the mainland European frequency on this entire Property Owning nonsense we are destined forever to wander the corridors of a wet green lunatic asylum picking up concrete and plasterboard wall materials to save for a rainy day !!!

ei.sdraob

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkkvU6LC3ZY

about 5:30 in

he asks the "hard question" why is expenditure going up this year to 62 billion

SLUSK

I would solve your problems by selling and privatizing everything I could lay my hands on.

galway2007

murphaph wrote: »

Nice graph, illiustrates the problem quite clearly. Private sector in a state of turmoil, public sector pay increases were clearly based on unsustainable forms of taxation. We need a combination of further (more drastic) pay cuts in the public sector (private sector firms will take care of their own pay cuts or fold) and a move to sustainable taxation (annual property taxes and higher income tax with fewer stealth taxes that people can avoid if they want/try hard enough).

Basically a lowering in the Irish standard of living to a level comensurate with a country with few indigenous industries of any value. What did we all expect? That we could continue to charge top dollar for our labour that can be easily provided in the Czech Republic or Poland for half the price? People in Ireland seem to think a 3 bed semi in a commutable distance to work is some sort of birthright, let me tell you that very few Germans etc. have the same outlook and most expect to end their days in a modest apartment. The psyche is completely different.

you forgot to say
It is time for the private sector to reduce the prices they are charging us for goods
They are ripped us off for the last 10 year and cause inflation to be above 5% which in turn cause wages demands which caused high wages

ei.sdraob

galway2007 wrote: »

you forgot to say
It is time for the private sector to reduce the prices they are charging us for goods
They are ripped us off for the last 10 year and cause inflation to be above 5% which in turn cause wages demands which caused high wages

most businesses did just that


source

notice how the only things that didn't go down are tied to the government

Dob74

SLUSK wrote: »

I would solve your problems by selling and privatizing everything I could lay my hands on.

How would that solve our problems? It is a terrible time to sell assets.
Look how much it has cost allowing a private operater of the M50.
20 million investment in 86 would have saved 400 million in 07.

Pete4779

Sleepy wrote: »

2. How incompetent this government are at cost cutting. Can you imagine the size and impact of an 'O Leary Report' on this subject?

If the government had commissioned the report the OP gave, it would take 10 years and cost €20 million.

Many thanks OP, it should be on the cover of every newspaper. I can't understand how expenses are goign up by so much *again* this year.

Idbatterim

There are 4 factors that worry me at the moment 1. PS pay bill 2. Social Welfare bill 3. PS workers on definet benefit pensions 4. 50% of workers making no contribution at all!

RichardAnd

What worries me is not these problems, though they are big ones, but our ability to deal with them. The money of the Celtic Tiger is gone but the beast still lives, in the hearts and minds of most Irish people.

Despite the lack of money, people have not shrugged off their insane sense of entitlement and greed. My grandmother grew up int he 50's when times were far harder than they are now. I'm not saying people were saints back then but, from what she and other elderly people have told me, people helped each other out because they were in it together. They also did not whinge and blame their problems on others simply for the sake of it.

Today, people are fully willing to talk about the problems but few are even able to consider that this was coming and is our own fault. Instead, we blame FF and the bankers and brush over the 100% mortgages, the 50k cars, the plasma screen TV and all the other crap. If we, as a nation, can't even admit the cause of the problem, how the hell are we to deal with it?

Idbatterim

ei.sdraob are you talking the economy down again? Havent you heard we've turned the corner? Brian Lenihan says so...

NewDirection

Why are we spending almost a billion on defence?

Crazy money

murphaph

NewDirection wrote: »

Why are we spending almost a billion on defence?

Crazy money

I'm sure a lot of that goes on foreign UN deplyments, search and rescue etc. If we want to be part of the big bad world and trade etc. then we should accept our responsibilities in a world context. I'm sure there are areas in which we could save in the military (govt jet!), though I believe it is already significantly smaller than it was in the early 80's, while other parts of the public sector have balooned in size (HSE).

I would avoid hitting the army tbh, we may need them to run our beasic services if the rest of the public service go out on strike!

ei.sdraob

more news on the income/expenditure topic

More than a billion euro less tax was collected in the first three months of the year, plunging the country 3.9 billion euro into the red, Government figures have revealed.

But Finance Minister Brian Lenihan insisted the poor returns - down 15% on the same period in 2009 - were broadly in line with what had been expected.

The latest Exchequer report said 7.2 billion euro in tax receipts was collected by the end of March, around 266 million euro below target.

Income tax takings dropped from 2.9 billion euro to 2.6 billion euro, while VAT fell by 480 million euro.

The painful cuts in last December's austerity budget appear to be bearing fruit, however, with spending down by almost one tenth to 10.7 billion euro.

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/ireland-39bn-euro-in-red-over-tax-2123558.html

Économiste Monétaire

Here's a graph of government revenue for the last four years.



The fall in CGT and Stamps is epic.

baalthor

NewDirection wrote: »

Why are we spending almost a billion on defence?

Crazy money

Between 1999 and 2009 defense spending increased from €575m to €817m; an increase of 42% or 4.2% per year. I would imagine it more or less tracked inflation.
On the other hand, total government spending in the same period rose from €18558m to €48291m; an increase of 160% or 16% per year.

Defense spending as a % of total government spend fell from 3.2% in 1999 to 1.7% in 2009. With the current recruitment embargo, possible Chad withdrawal and probable cut in capital spending the % spend on defense will fall even further. I doubt it can fall much further without affecting the modest capabilities we currently possess.

To put it in perspective, had the total government spend increased by the same percentage as the defense spend we would still have a budget surplus this year even after the collapse in tax revenues!

Note: the increase in spending from 99 to 09 was made up of a 132% increase in capital spending and a 165% increase in current spending. The ratio of capital to total was constant at around 16% over the period. This is just in case people think the increase was all about building motorways.

ParkRunner

It is frighteningly turning into a situation where will the last person out of the country please turn off the lights!

Shelflife

Unfortunately we are where we are, and how we got here is more or less irrelavant. we are in a deep hole and whether we jumped or pushed make no differerence to the situation we are in.

responsibility and accountability both on a private and public basis is essential now more then ever.

we now need people esp those spending our tax money to treat that money as if it was there own, every thing must be accounted for and if not then they must be made accountable, no more waste no more overruns and if there are then those that made a balls of it have to be made accountable.

those in the private sector must also become responible and accountable, employers must play fair and treat employees fairly, also employees must up their game and give 100% , those on social welfare must only claim what is rightfully theirs.

as murphmurph said earlier we are entitled to only that which we have earned nothing more.

we are in a hole its time to start the slow painful asent to the fresh air above.

ei.sdraob

Shelflife wrote: »

Unfortunately we are where we are, and how we got here is more or less irrelavant. we are in a deep hole and whether we jumped or pushed make no differerence to the situation we are in.

i disagree, its highly relevant

we are where we are, due to a series of bad decisions at every turn by a very select few people


there is no enquiry into how we got here
nor apology from those responsible
nor is anyone being held accountable (ha!)


how can we learn from mistakes and move on?
if anything we are getting deeper into trouble, since this thread was started things got from bad to worse with no end in sight

im usually an optimist but looking at the figures and news coming out every day is maddening

Shelflife

ei.sdraob wrote: »

i disagree, its highly relevant

we are where we are, due to a series of bad decisions at every turn by a very select few people


there is no enquiry into how we got here
nor apology from those responsible
nor is anyone being held accountable (ha!)


how can we learn from mistakes and move on?
if anything we are getting deeper into trouble, since this thread was started things got from bad to worse with no end in sight

im usually an optimist but looking at the figures and news coming out every day is maddening

im not saying that we should forget or forgive those that got us into the hole we are in , i also believe that they should be held accountable for the reckless trading that got us into the hole and if that means lenghtly jail time then so be it.

im just saing that we now have to focus our thoughts on getting out of the hole and i agree with you that the drip drip of lies and mistruths that we have got from the banks and others is very frustrating

recedite

Yet, for all the evidence, a large swath of the Irish still believe the nation hasn’t gone off course. These people consider borrowing in order to live beyond their means a rational choice. They expect the government to save them when they get into trouble and think that taxing the rich to pay for a bigger and bigger safety net is a reasonable idea.

In a truly free-market society, this sizable segment of the public would have already learned a brutal lesson they’d remember for the rest of their lives. Instead, the brutal lesson is being learned by people who played by the rules and didn’t take ridiculous risks, but who are now being coerced by the government to pay for the misdeeds of the over-indebted fools who did.
So we continue to throw public money at the banks, in the belief that this is the only way to continue borrowing money.

Head The Wall

Économiste Monétaire wrote: »

Here's a graph of government revenue for the last four years.



The fall in CGT and Stamps is epic.

Corporation Tax also dropped like a stone, maybe I'm wrong but I thought exports from MNC's were still holding their own. Do they not contribute as much corporation tax as we thought

maninasia

This was my view also, I was surprised. However what they usually talk about in the media is the export sector. The corporation tax applies to all enterprises here and it also nicely shows how the local economy is still much bigger than export economy.
That would be my reading of it.

ei.sdraob

Head The Wall wrote: »

Corporation Tax also dropped like a stone, maybe I'm wrong but I thought exports from MNC's were still holding their own. Do they not contribute as much corporation tax as we thought

corporation tax dropped for 2 reasons

1. time of year to pay it has been changed
2. corporation tax is paid on profits after expenses (think wages), hardly anyone is making a profit nowadays, and quite alot of companies are barely holding on

maninasia

Yes, but sales in foreign markets aren't so bad..so it must cover mostly domestic businesses and therefore Ireland doesn't have such a big export sector as supposed.

ei.sdraob

maninasia wrote: »

Yes, but sales in foreign markets aren't so bad..so it must cover mostly domestic businesses and therefore Ireland doesn't have such a big export sector as supposed.

is your reasoning based on any figures? (tip: checkout cso.ie )

murphaph

maninasia wrote: »

it also nicely shows how the local economy is still much bigger than export economy.

I disagree. We know that app. 75% of GDP (or was it GNP?) is from FDI. I find it hard to believe this is mostly products and services destined for the domestic market. It would, in my opinion, be very dangerous to assume that our domestic economy is somehow more important than exporting. No chance. We simply don't have the numbers to have an "important" domestic economy, like the US for example.

Corporation tax is not due when a company exports a machine etc. It is due when the company is tax resident in Ireland. Many companies part finish components and Ireland and ship them elsewhere to be finished and packaged (Intel for example) and they may opt to pay tax in that jusrisdiction depending on the regime (there are rules about what constitutes finishing/manufacturing but they can be played).

maninasia

I have no clue about this area, but with Ireland having a very low corporate rate surely foreign corporations are going to pay most of their tax here rather than elsewhere..which is why they invested here in the first place.

Foreign earnings might be dominated by multinationals, but most of the money will probably be cycling in the local economy and therefore the tax on said profits?
Or else the multinationals are getting into tax write-off schemes?

ei.sdraob

forgot to mention

the corporation tax figure has the potential (tho unlikely in grand scheme of things) to actually turn negative!

if your company end-up making a loss you can claim back some of your previously paid corpo tax

im not an accountant they can better explain it than me, i wouldn't be surprised if this year alot of companies are claiming it back