10c Cheltenham Accumulator

Nulty

Champion Hurdle
Solwhit @ 4/1

World Hurdle
Big Bucks @ 4/7

Cheltenham Gold Cup
Denman @ 2/1

Ryanair Chase
Poquelin @ 4/1

Queen Mother Champion Chase
Twist Magic @ 5/1

Arkle Trophy
Somersby @ 7/1

RSA Chase
Punchestowns @ 10/3

Supreme Novices
Dunguib @ 5/6

40 odd thousand/1

Whyno

Get rid of twist magic imo.

Always looks good on paper but the sick thing is ders always one fecker ta let your dreams down

Nulty

Yeah, Champion Chase is the most hope-sustained bet in there. followed by Arkle and Ryanair.

Gonna do one yourself?

finbarrk

I'd imagine it would be for more than 10c.

Whyno

Punchestowns @ 3/1 (rsa)
captain cee bee @ 4/1 (arkle)
rite of passage @ 4/1 ( neptune)
Go Native @ 5/1 ( champion hurdle)
Imperial commander @ 5/1 ( ryanair )
Master Minded @ 6/4 ( champion chase )

€1 lucky 63 pays = € 30,869 and 1 hell of a hangover

Whyno

Forgot to say all the prices i got are from boyles

RichieLawlor

Whyno wrote: »

Punchestowns @ 3/1 (rsa)
captain cee bee @ 4/1 (arkle)
rite of passage @ 4/1 ( neptune)
Go Native @ 5/1 ( champion hurdle)
Imperial commander @ 5/1 ( ryanair )
Master Minded @ 6/4 ( champion chase )

€1 lucky 63 pays = € 30,869 and 1 hell of a hangover

Whyno wrote: »

Forgot to say all the prices i got are from boyles

Jeez Wayne,Tell me you didnt actually do this bet. Apart from the fact you can get better prices on most of them at the moment, Imperial Commander is a definite runner in the Gold Cup, so youve just burned money

westlife2010

Nulty wrote: »

Champion Hurdle
Solwhit @ 4/1

World Hurdle
Big Bucks @ 4/7

Cheltenham Gold Cup
Denman @ 2/1

Ryanair Chase
Poquelin @ 4/1

Queen Mother Champion Chase
Twist Magic @ 5/1

Arkle Trophy
Somersby @ 7/1

RSA Chase
Punchestowns @ 10/3

Supreme Novices
Dunguib @ 5/6

40 odd thousand/1

A good thing accum... go and collect!
Would have a savor on KK instead of twist in the CC. Not mad about McCoy on Denman, would rather Sam on board

cson

Yeah I'd be of the opinion that Kalahari King will get as close to Master Minded as anything has in the last 2 years.

RichieLawlor

cson wrote: »

Yeah I'd be of the opinion that Kalahari King will get as close to Master Minded as anything has in the last 2 years.

Kalahari King wins a handicap off a mark in the 150s, similar to Diamond Harry earler in the season, and also similar to DH he will get well and truly put in his place by the champ

Whyno

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Jeez Wayne,Tell me you didnt actually do this bet. Apart from the fact you can get better prices on most of them at the moment, Imperial Commander is a definite runner in the Gold Cup, so youve just burned money

No not yet Richie. I thought it was mentioned on the Betfair forum that he intended to run in the Ryanair. ****balls anyway because i was considering napping him for it.
The only site i can access in work is Boyles and thats where i get all my prices.

Whyno

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Kalahari King wins a handicap off a mark in the 150s, similar to Diamond Harry earler in the season, and also similar to DH he will get well and truly put in his place by the champ

>Couldnt have said it better myself.
KK was impressive at the weekend but there wasnt any sort of decent animal behind him imo.
He may well finish a decent 2nd but TM beat him easily in sandown last sesaon (excuses given in KK camp, also i wouldnt have ferdy train a sheepdog)

Nulty

finbarrk wrote: »

I'd imagine it would be for more than 10c.

Very informative post there Wordsworth.

The odds are 44,941.86/1 for a reason. You must have one of those things I've heard so much about....job, is it?

I'll be playing for more after MM and Denman run, and closer to the festival. I'm not blowing money on a pipe dream 5 weeks before.

westlife2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Kalahari King wins a handicap off a mark in the 150s, similar to Diamond Harry earler in the season, and also similar to DH he will get well and truly put in his place by the champ

He won off a mark of 157 (his novice rating) with his head in his chest on ground prob a little softer than ideal. He must go up a least a stone for this performance which would bring his new mark to approx 171! He was a 8/1 -10/1 shot for the CC before the run at Doncaster. If he had of been beaten 12L back in 3rd, 4th or 5th in would have been considered a satifactory run. But he beats a good yard stick like Imsingintheblues (giving him 3lb's) by over 20L! Petit Robin (jumping well) first time out is all out to beat the same horse by a little over 8L! This rating would put him about 7lb's behind MM ..........at MM's best! That performance on Sat by KK was awesome and the sky is the limit to his possible improvement. remember the great Master Minded started his brilliant 2008 season winning (all out!) a handicap off 145...... KK has already proved he is a 170+ horse after his first handicap

RichieLawlor

westlife2010 wrote: »

He won off a mark of 157 (his novice rating) with his head in his chest on ground prob a little softer than ideal. He must go up a least a stone for this performance which would bring his new mark to approx 171! But he beats a good yard stick like Imsingintheblues (giving him 3lb's) by over 20L! This rating would put him about 7lb's behind MM ..........at MM's best! That performance on Sat by KK was awesome and the sky is the limit to his possible improvement. remember the great Master Minded started his brilliant 2008 season winning (all out!) a handicap off 145...... KK has already proved he is a 170+ horse after his first handicap

There's no sense here. First of all Master Minded was only just a 5 year old And sure to be improving that day at sandown and was far from all out to win off 145. And still only seven it's possible albeit unlikely there is better to come.

Now Kalahari King who didn't win with his head in his chest by any stretch although it was prob just fitness at the end that saw him tire (who I think you will find is on 166) will need to find another stone to trouble the MM of last year, And I think you forget at his beat he ran to 186 so 20lbs to trouble the MM of 2008 and at 9 years old that's very unlikely though not impossible.

Using imsingingtheblues as a form line is just LOL, he was beaten and struggling badly 4 out, obv in decline and at his best was a 150 chaser. Makes more sense to use Free World, the nicholls number 1 for the race, a 153 horse beaten 5 lengths getting 5lbs. That's more like it.

Now I'm a fan of Kalahari King but to say he did anything more than what he was entilttled to on Saturday is stretching it. He still has 7lbs to find with Twist Magic and given the way TM laughed at him in the Celebration Chase and is a year younger and on top of his game is very unlikely imo. I think KK will do well to get placed in this years CC. I hope I'm wrong I'd love to see him put it up to them but I just can't see it

UrbanSea

Whyno wrote: »

No not yet Richie. I thought it was mentioned on the Betfair forum that he intended to run in the Ryanair. ****balls anyway because i was considering napping him for it.
The only site i can access in work is Boyles and thats where i get all my prices.

I'm sure you tried but oddschecker.com is always good

westlife2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

There's no sense here. First of all Master Minded was only just a 5 year old And sure to be improving that day at sandown and was far from all out to win off 145. And still only seven it's possible albeit unlikely there is better to come.

Now Kalahari King who didn't win with his head in his chest by any stretch although it was prob just fitness at the end that saw him tire (who I think you will find is on 166) will need to find another stone to trouble the MM of last year, And I think you forget at his beat he ran to 186 so 20lbs to trouble the MM of 2008 and at 9 years old that's very unlikely though not impossible.

Using imsingingtheblues as a form line is just LOL, he was beaten and struggling badly 4 out, obv in decline and at his best was a 150 chaser. Makes more sense to use Free World, the nicholls number 1 for the race, a 153 horse beaten 5 lengths getting 5lbs. That's more like it.

Now I'm a fan of Kalahari King but to say he did anything more than what he was entilttled to on Saturday is stretching it. He still has 7lbs to find with Twist Magic and given the way TM laughed at him in the Celebration Chase and is a year younger and on top of his game is very unlikely imo. I think KK will do well to get placed in this years CC. I hope I'm wrong I'd love to see him put it up to them but I just can't see it

I dont forget MM has run to 186 ... 2 YEARS AGO! and has not put up a performance rated over 173 for over a year! Kalahari is a 9 year old but has only had 15 lifetime races. And I personally thought he ****** in on Sat. At 9 he looks to be improving. At 7 can you say the same for MM? Yes, he does not need to improve to win off 178.... but every run receives a less and less rating.

UrbanSea

It is difficult to judge,if master minded wasnt injured I'm sure he would have ran much better on his seasonal reappearencew

RichieLawlor

westlife2010 wrote: »

I dont forget MM has run to 186 ... 2 YEARS AGO! and has not put up a performance rated over 173 for over a year! Kalahari is a 9 year old but has only had 15 lifetime races. And I personally thought he ****** in on Sat. At 9 he looks to be improving. At 7 can you say the same for MM? Yes, he does not need to improve to win off 178.... but every run receives a less and less rating.

Master Minded has not run to 186 for 2 years, yet won every race he contested over 2 miles, until the last race where something was obvioulsy amiss. Paul Nicholls has said we will most likely never see another run like his 1st CC unless something puts it up to him. Nothing to say hes not as good, he has run only as good as he has needed to. You cant crab the horse for not winning every race by 20 lengths, he still wins.

And as lightly raced as KK is horses dont improve with age, this will be his only chance to win a CC but i dont think hes up to it.

UrbanSea

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Master Minded has not run to 186 for 2 years, yet won every race he contested over 2 miles, until the last race where something was obvioulsy amiss. QUOTE]

Turned out he had a fractured rib

RichieLawlor

westlife2010 wrote: »

At 9 he looks to be improving. At 7 can you say the same for MM?

I need to highlight this again. Do you see how silly this comment is

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I need to highlight this again. Do you see how silly this comment is

Definitely dont see how it could be so silly given that the 7 year old hasnt looked like repeating his best performance of two years ago, and the 9yo has had his handicap mark improved by 10lbs after his last run. Its clear that the 9yo best run was his last and that Master Minded's best run was nearly two years ago.

If Master Minded was to improve on what he did 2 years ago, we would be looking at an Arkle. Its very rare for a 5yo to put up that sort of performance and it it would be silly to think he would put up an improved effort in March. I dont think its silly to suggest that the best days of this particular 7yo are behind him.

Whether Kalahari King is improving enough to beat Master Minded is a different question.

westlife2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Master Minded has not run to 186 for 2 years, yet won every race he contested over 2 miles, until the last race where something was obvioulsy amiss. Paul Nicholls has said we will most likely never see another run like his 1st CC unless something puts it up to him. Nothing to say hes not as good, he has run only as good as he has needed to. You cant crab the horse for not winning every race by 20 lengths, he still wins.

And as lightly raced as KK is horses dont improve with age, this will be his only chance to win a CC but i dont think hes up to it.

Richie, there wasn't another length in him when he won the CC last year, a race (with Zeb falling) that he should have won by 20L on the bridle as he did against Voy Spors (a much better horse in 2008 than anything he ran up against last year). And then should have been beaten by Zeb at Punch. I have no probs with forgiving his run last time because of injury. But my 'decline' thing is purely based on his previous 2 runs. 4 years ago i had less than 5% body fat........ now i have to pace myself answering the phone.....nostalgia can be an expensive thing!;)

mdwexford

His Victor Chandler win last year was only 5lbs below his first Champion Chase win, the way you guys are talking you'd swear he was a one time fluke horse or something.
He has still only had 10 runs over fences in Britain, its a bit premature to be saying hes on the downgrade imo.
He also won last years CC readily, he had some left in the tank for sure.

westlife2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I need to highlight this again. Do you see how silly this comment is

What i was trying to say was that KK has put in his lifetime best run as a 9-Y-O, with MM putting in his best runs as a 6-Y-O. I am not saying he cant bounce back. Maybe that rib has been causing him problems for sometime! Twist Magic is a prime example of a horse that can 'come back'... if they had of retired him after the CC last year as he only looked a shadow of himself for a long time it could have been justified.... and look at him now! I love a champion, and thats what MM is. But there are serious question marks over his performances and if he was up against the likes of Petit and Well Chief I think he might get away with being a lesser horse. But TM and KK look serious horses this year. I think MM will win or be out of the first 3! In other words he is back to his brilliant best or he's gone!

westlife2010

mdwexford wrote: »

His Victor Chandler win last year was only 5lbs below his first Champion Chase win, the way you guys are talking you'd swear he was a one time fluke horse or something.
He has still only had 10 runs over fences in Britain, its a bit premature to be saying hes on the downgrade imo.
He also won last years CC readily, he had some left in the tank for sure.[/QUOTE]
disagree with this one md

westlife2010

i think we should all find a pub for the festival and kick the **** out of each other (verbally):D

mdwexford

Haha nothing like the pre Cheltenham banter.

I cant even talk to my two mates who are in the Denman camp about the Gold Cup or we end up nearly boxing each other. How can those fools not see Kauto cannot lose!!!!!:D

Morgans

Yeah. The Victor Chandler was very good but they way he is being talked about as a bombproof favourite forgets that he has never repeated the form of the QM CC, and only once in 5 runs has even looked remotely like the same horse.

I thought I was seeing the greatest horse of my lifetime when he won the first QM, now I'm beginning to downgrade that form rather than continually make excuses for his subsequent runs. Its either that or he isn't as good as he used to be.

And you are right as you mentioned on another thread, I think Petit Robin would be a pretty ordinary Champion Chaser - his form in general makes Twist Magic Master Minded's equal. I think MM was pretty much all out last year to beat PR by 7l.

RichieLawlor

But he keeps winning, which is my point. He does enough, When he is beaten then maybe your points will have more weight. He is as good as he has to be, to win this years Champion he will have to be better than last year, i have no doubt he will be

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

But he keeps winning, which is my point. He does enough, When he is beaten then maybe your points will have more weight. He is as good as he has to be, to win this years Champion he will have to be better than last year, i have no doubt he will be

Except in two of those six subsequent races since his first champion chase when he was beaten, for a level stakes loss of -.52

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

Except in two of those six subsequent races since his first champion chase when he was beaten, for a level stakes loss of -.52

Beaten over 2 and a miles and when running with a cracked rib, great examples

Morgans

Just try to be more precise in your arguments RichieLawlor. You said that he keeps winning. He doesnt. You'll gladly add the short head lucky win over Big Zeb as part of your argument when any race-reader worth their salt would have classed him as lucky to win.

Excuses were made for the horse - that he idled. This despite the fact that he never idled when winning by huge distances previously. As someone who had him in a couple of special bets I was never comfortable throughout the Champion Chase last year. It was very hard work. Now, he was a ready winner of the champion chase last year apparently.

There is absolutely no evidence that he had a fractured rib during his last race. The initial scope gave him an all clear. It transpired afterwards. It is assumed that its a reason for the poor performance. It may be true of course but its only an assumption.

He is faourite for a reason, but improve your arguments RichieLawlor. We have excuses when he is beaten, when he is nearly beaten and only the races where he wins by large margins can be counted as the horses true form. That is not being objective.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

n.

He is faourite for a reason, but improve your arguments RichieLawlor. We have excuses when he is beaten, when he is nearly beaten and only the races where he wins by large margins can be counted as the horses true form. That is not being objective.

Horses can run badly for any number of reasons, which is why excuses are made, Horses just dont randomly decide to destroy a CC field, or a Tingle Creek or a VC field.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote: »

Yeah. The Victor Chandler was very good but they way he is being talked about as a bombproof favourite forgets that he has never repeated the form of the QM CC, and only once in 5 runs has even looked remotely like the same horse.

I thought I was seeing the greatest horse of my lifetime when he won the first QM, now I'm beginning to downgrade that form rather than continually make excuses for his subsequent runs. Its either that or he isn't as good as he used to be.

And you are right as you mentioned on another thread, I think Petit Robin would be a pretty ordinary Champion Chaser - his form in general makes Twist Magic Master Minded's equal. I think MM was pretty much all out last year to beat PR by 7l.

From the few people ive been talking to it seems some are willing to take him on this year.

It is possible Voy Por was on the downgrade and maybe the entire race was rated higher than it should have been.

Going on recent evidence its possible TM is MM equal now but at current prices of 6/4 and 5/1 id still rather a two time champion than a horse who is 0/3 round Cheltenham.

Morgans wrote: »

J
Excuses were made for the horse - that he idled. This despite the fact that he never idled when winning by huge distances previously. As someone who had him in a couple of special bets I was never comfortable throughout the Champion Chase last year. It was very hard work. Now, he was a ready winner of the champion chase last year apparently.

You really think so, at no stage last year did i think he looked like anything other than winning by a comfortable amount.

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Horses can run badly for any number of reasons, which is why excuses are made, Horses just dont randomly decide to destroy a CC field, or a Tingle Creek or a VC field.

Well, as Ive said, I thought I was watching history when he won his first champion chase. A machine. I was willing to overlook the Aintree defeat as coming too close after his huge performance at Chelt. However, he didnt impress me as an Arkle in the making in the Tingle Creek, was no more impressive than several other winners of the race including Twist Magic. Continually making excuses for horses is a sure fire way to the poor house - and to accept that Master Minded is stiill the same horse that won the first Champion Chase, a lot of excuses has to be made for the horse. If you continually made excuses for Big Zeb...

I dont think the opposition is strong and a lot of the reason for the exalted rating of the first champion chase was the idea that VPU ran to form. His main opposition last year fell. Given that VPU also failed to run to form last March, I'm beginning to think Master Minded was maybe flattered by a few pounds. Im not sure. My eyes may have fooled me.

Ive no doubt that he can and would win over 2m4 if they tried again. I'd even go as far as to say that I could see him winning a King George - not unlike his stablemate.

Morgans

mdwexford wrote: »

From the few people ive been talking to it seems some are willing to take him on this year.

It is possible Voy Por was on the downgrade and maybe the entire race was rated higher than it should have been.

Going on recent evidence its possible TM is MM equal now but at current prices of 6/4 and 5/1 id still rather a two time champion than a horse who is 0/3 round Cheltenham.

Yes. That is the danger. He has run inexplicably badly twice. Beaten before reaching the top of the hill. Once it looked as if he was going to win the Arkle when falling. It was a poor Arkle though. You have to take it on trust that this year will be different. Its the same trainer that you are trusting to get MM back to his best. It is a worry, and i think there will be few going the full gun with the course record toward the back of their mind.

Its the same with Big Zeb, you will look foolish backing him to beat Master Minded and watch Geraghty unseat at the Moscow Flyer ditch again.

Those, and Kalahari are the biggest dangers to the horse. Master Minded is the solid option, but Im not sure 7/4 is value. Saturday might tell us different.

mdwexford wrote: »

You really think so, at no stage last year did i think he looked like anything other than winning by a comfortable amount.

Definitely. I assumed I'd have a far more comfortable experience, given that the year before he had VPU beaten at the third last. The rest were in a different county. Even when he was asked to go away from Petit Robin (who shot his bolt going with him) the response wasn't electric. Even Well Chief looked a slight danger coming to the last. One paced I thought up the hill. Job done, but that was about it. No 4/11 shot. Its why I'm hoping that the injury they are looking into now might have been affecting the horse for longer than just the last race.

Shane732

Nulty wrote: »

Champion Hurdle
Solwhit @ 4/1

World Hurdle
Big Bucks @ 4/7

Cheltenham Gold Cup
Denman @ 2/1

Ryanair Chase
Poquelin @ 4/1

Queen Mother Champion Chase
Twist Magic @ 5/1

Arkle Trophy
Somersby @ 7/1

RSA Chase
Punchestowns @ 10/3

Supreme Novices
Dunguib @ 5/6

40 odd thousand/1

It's not going to happen for Twist Magic.

It's highly unlikely it'll happen for Denman.

Others look reasonable - Weld's should win the bumper.

Shane732

Morgans wrote: »

Those, and Kalahari are the biggest dangers to the horse. Master Minded is the solid option, but Im not sure 7/4 is value. Saturday might tell us different.

7/4 was value!!

cson

Shane732 wrote: »

7/4 was value!!

With the benefit of hindsight :rolleyes:

Morgans

Shane732 wrote: »

7/4 was value!!

Yeah. I think 10/11 about Master Minded after the race is far better value.

Nulty

Shane732 wrote: »

Nulty wrote: »

Champion Hurdle
Solwhit @ 4/1

World Hurdle
Big Bucks @ 4/7

Cheltenham Gold Cup
Denman @ 2/1

Ryanair Chase
Poquelin @ 4/1

Queen Mother Champion Chase
Twist Magic @ 5/1

Arkle Trophy
Somersby @ 7/1

RSA Chase
Punchestowns @ 10/3

Supreme Novices
Dunguib @ 5/6

40 odd thousand/1

It's not going to happen for Twist Magic.

It's highly unlikely it'll happen for Denman.

Others look reasonable - Weld's should win the bumper.

Thanks for the update Big Ben

Nulty

Heres one I prepared earlier:

€1.00

Solwhit @ 4/1
Champion Hurdle

Master Minded @ 6/4
Queen Mother Champion Chase

Somersby @ 7/1
Arkle Trophy

Kauto Star @ 11/8
Cheltenham Gold Cup

Big Bucks @ 4/7
World Hurdle

Punchestowns @ 10/3
RSA Chase

Dunguib @ 5/6
Supreme Novices' Hurdle

2963/1

Eternal Optomist

browner85

2/1 is a good price for denman.... imo!! thats worth a few quid on its own.. hopefully he wont unseat mccoy like today!!

westlife2010

browner85 wrote: »

2/1 is a good price for denman.... imo!! thats worth a few quid on its own.. hopefully he wont unseat mccoy like today!!

you can get 7/2 now!

Johner

I'm happy with my €100 treble for Cheltenham,

Dunguib 6/4
Master Minded 7/4
Big Bucks 4/7

Return: €1080.36

Might do a small accumulator now.

mdwexford

Nice prices, i have Kauto instead of Dunguib in my banker treble.

cson

Johner wrote: »

I'm happy with my €100 treble for Cheltenham,

Dunguib 6/4
Master Minded 7/4
Big Bucks 4/7

Return: €1080.36

Might do a small accumulator now.

Christ, almost 10/1 for that is massive. :eek:

finbarrk

I've got Zaynar, Big Bucks and Kauto. €50 treble pays almost €2k at the prices I got.

RichieLawlor

finbarrk wrote: »

I've got Zaynar, Big Bucks and Kauto. €50 treble pays almost €2k at the prices I got.

You must have done the bet last march