Chances of a snap late spring general election ?

mikester2006

Anybody else think that there is a chance of a snap late spring / early summer general election ?

For Brian Cowen and Fianna Fail, I think it might be "the least worst time" to go to the country and get a respectable showing.

Fianna Fail's poll ratings have risen recently, the last budget (while hard on public servants) was not as bad as people expected. The recession has seemed to have "bottomed out" for now, but with major tax rises (property tax and water charges) probably on the way in the next budget things will get much worse again in 2011. Also interest rates are still fairly low, and will probably go up in the future.

I think perhaps Fianna Fail might like to get out and let the opposition take some of the harsh decisions, rather than hanging on till 2012 , by which time all the hard decisions will have been made, and Fianna Fail will have "set up" a recovery / boom for an incoming FG / Labour government.

Any thoughts ?

ei.sdraob

mikester2006 wrote: »

by which time all the hard decisions will have been made, and Fianna Fail will have "set up" a recovery / boom for an incoming FG / Labour government.

rofl that was funny

no i dont think there will be, they'll hang around like a bad smell unfortunately

Sulmac

They don't deserve one. Budget 2011 [and even 2012, if they're lucky enough to last that long] needs to be implemented by them, in particular, so people can fully understand the damage they've done to the country.

kev9100

FF will hang on as long as they can and hope the Irish people get amnesia so they can fool us into electing them again. They've done it before, they'll do it again.

mikester2006 wrote: »

The last budget (while hard on public servants) was not as bad as people expected.

Try telling that to the cleaner who is on 30,000 a year and has just got a 5% pay cut.

hallelujajordan

Fianna Fail have a mandate to continue in government until 2012. What's more, last year they agreed a new programme for government with their coalition partners and are mid-way through its implementation. I don't believe there are any parties in Dail Eireann who would like to see an early general election.

ei.sdraob

kev9100 wrote: »

Try telling that to the cleaner who is on 30,000 a year and has just got a 5% pay cut.

his/her peers in Greece who didn't take a cut are about to face much steeper cuts than that

irishh_bob

kev9100 wrote: »

FF will hang on as long as they can and hope the Irish people get amnesia so they can fool us into electing them again. They've done it before, they'll do it again.




Try telling that to the cleaner who is on 30,000 a year and has just got a 5% pay cut.

cleaners in the public sector earn 30 k per year :eek:

Mr.Micro

No chance of a spring election bar FF losing its narrow majority or those propping them up growing spines. This lot will cling on to power until the last possible moment as by then the electorate will perhaps be feeling better. I would not put it past the voters to put them in again.

Liam Byrne

mikester2006 wrote: »

I think perhaps Fianna Fail might like to get out and let the opposition take some of the harsh decisions, rather than hanging on till 2012 , by which time all the hard decisions will have been made, and Fianna Fail will have "set up" a recovery / boom for an incoming FG / Labour government.

PMSL at the last bit. It's like a tabloid headline : "Murderer heralded as hero after calling ambulance and letting someone competent save a life".

Funny, though - no mention of, or credit to, FG & Labour "setting up" the foundations for FF.

And we don't want a "boom", anyways; we want a sustainable, sensible future.

Pride Fighter

We need this general election to save this country. Fianna Fail have ruined the country and continue to with inept policies. But there wont be one as the greens are to used to their perks and the Fianna Fail backbenchers just care about getting there paychecks.

thebman

irishh_bob wrote: »

cleaners in the public sector earn 30 k per year :eek:

lol exactly what I was thinking.

College was a waste of time if I can get 30K a year cleaning toilets.

I think FF will hold on to power for as long as possible and worry about the election when they have to call one. Its basically the same line of thinking that brought us the boom and its collapse.

Just keep it going for as long as possible and worry about the problems tomorrow.

Exactly why they should be kicked out of power IMO. They will have a think from the opposition parties and clean up there act as they work out why the public dislikes them so much.

Liam Byrne

thebman wrote: »

clean up there act as they work out why the public dislikes them so much.

Don't think that'll ever happen, because they're in complete denial about their massive contribution to the crash.

"Lehman's", "global", "we are where we are", etc.

I'm in two minds; if I thought for a second that FF could undo their damage, I'd welcome the status quo (sort out their own mess) but the guarantee to Anglo made a dire situation worse.

And they didn't learn from the O'Donoghue scandal either; that's obvious from them appointing him to the committee to look into the banking scandals.

So the sooner the better. And I'll dance in the streets when these corrupt scum are sidelined.

thebman

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Don't think that'll ever happen, because they're in complete denial about their massive contribution to the crash.

"Lehman's", "global", "we are where we are", etc.

I'm in two minds; if I thought for a second that FF could undo their damage, I'd welcome the status quo (sort out their own mess) but the guarantee to Anglo made a dire situation worse.

And they didn't learn from the O'Donoghue scandal either; that's obvious from them appointing him to the committee to look into the banking scandals.

So the sooner the better. And I'll dance in the streets when these corrupt scum are sidelined.

Well IMO they have this attitude as the public have not kicked them out of office for so long and any of this crap they tried in the past has worked.

If kicked out they'll either reform or assume Brian Cowen is the problem change leader and come back the same old FF in which case people should keep the door locked on them TBH.

Liam Byrne

thebman wrote: »

....people should keep the door locked on them TBH.

Nope - they have to come in the door in order for the bucket of slurry to topple over on them.

It'll be a pain to clean up, but it'll be worth it!

thetonynator

the greens will cease to function as a party after the next general election, as it is they have 6 tds and 3 councillors, after the next GE they will have no TD's and 3 councillors, prob not the best state for a party to be in . . .

97i9y3941

i hope there will be so them hippies greens will be out,some might say,if greece and spain fall and civ servants start their strikes there be a snap election?..

simonj

very doubtfull - they will hang on in the hope they can get some kind of an upturn and use that to say their policies are going to save us -

If anything, they will hang on to December, give an Xmass payment on social welfare, with a bit extra for not having done so last time, generate a feel-good factor and hope for the best - and a heap of them will get re-elected with the way things are



amhrannua.com

oppenheimer1

kev9100 wrote: »

FF will hang on as long as they can and hope the Irish people get amnesia so they can fool us into electing them again. They've done it before, they'll do it again.




Try telling that to the cleaner who is on 30,000 a year and has just got a 5% pay cut.

It could have been (and probably should have) 10%.

oppenheimer1

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Don't think that'll ever happen, because they're in complete denial about their massive contribution to the crash.

"Lehman's", "global", "we are where we are", etc.

I'm in two minds; if I thought for a second that FF could undo their damage, I'd welcome the status quo (sort out their own mess) but the guarantee to Anglo made a dire situation worse.

And they didn't learn from the O'Donoghue scandal either; that's obvious from them appointing him to the committee to look into the banking scandals.

So the sooner the better. And I'll dance in the streets when these corrupt scum are sidelined.

Well what would you have done? Let Anglo go to the wall like Lehman and have a crisis of confidence in the entire Irish banking sector? The other banks were and are weak (in previous posts you may have even said they are insolvent iirc) I like the fact I'm still able to withdraw money from my accounts. No functioning banks, no economy. You should watch the love of money a documentary by the bbc. Lenihan explains that we came within 24 hours of a total banking collapse. If you think the trouble we're in now is bad... So I ask the question again... What would you have done??

-Aside- What happened at Anglo was wrong, but is it illegal to run your business into the ground?

thebman

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Well what would you have done? Let Anglo go to the wall like Lehman and have a crisis of confidence in the entire Irish banking sector? The other banks were and are weak (in previous posts you may have even said they are insolvent iirc) I like the fact I'm still able to withdraw money from my accounts. No functioning banks, no economy. You should watch the love of money a documentary by the bbc. Lenihan explains that we came within 24 hours of a total banking collapse. If you think the trouble we're in now is bad... So I ask the question again... What would you have done??

-Aside- What happened at Anglo was wrong, but is it illegal to run your business into the ground?

I think letting Anglo go bankrupt would not have been a problem TBH. A simple statement describing that its actions were irregular compared to the other Irish banks would probably have put more faith in the other banks.

Backing Anglo was the worst thing the government could have done IMO. When you have a basket case bank and you rescue them, it makes you look like a basket case. Anglo was a property bank in a property collapse, it was always going to be in trouble and should have been let fail.

BOI and AIB actually have real customers that aren't property developers. I don't know anyone with an Anglo Irish bank account, do you?

Maserati23

Are all the FF TD's entitled to full pension and benifits after this stint?

As they will never be heard of again, well 80 PER CENT OF THEM ANYHOW.:P

Red_Marauder

We seem to go through this old ceremony of predicting a general election every couple of months at this stage.
In fact, there is no reason to expect a premature general election. Fianna Fáil are good at finishing their term in office and I wouldnt be surprised if they coasted through for another two and a half years.

Liam Byrne

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Well what would you have done? Let Anglo go to the wall like Lehman and have a crisis of confidence in the entire Irish banking sector?

How, exactly ? If Ireland proved that it wouldn't tolerate lying, dodgy transfers and corruption, then it would increase confidence.

As it is, Irish people have no confidence in the banks, and adding to that problem is the fact that they're taking our money in order to pay some of the scum that f**ked up about €600,000 a year!

I certainly have no confidence in our banks, and I'll be looking at transferring to a new bank if one comes in. Unfortunately, given the Government interference in the market, the existing - corrupt and inept - ones have an unfair advantage as they're being propped up, so they're probably less likely to come in.

Anglo f**ked up (and worse, deliberately tried to hide the fact, which - although I'm no legal expert - probably is illegal in terms of the company and the so-called financial regulator)

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The other banks were and are weak (in previous posts you may have even said they are insolvent iirc) I like the fact I'm still able to withdraw money from my accounts. No functioning banks, no economy.

Personally, I wouldn't care if a bank that was corrupt went to the wall. While it might take a while for another bank to come in, if it were made clear that the banks bolloxed up through their own dodgy practices and 100% mortgages, then someone would.

And everyone duped by the boom would pay the liquidator a certain percentage, and we could all start again with reputable banks.

As for the "no banks, no economy" argument - if that were true, why aren't the banks socialised, and under non-greedy capitalist control ?

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Lenihan explains that we came within 24 hours of a total banking collapse.

I don't trust Lenihan and FF to tell the truth. How can he know that we came within 24 hours (it sounds strangely similar to me like a variation on the lie used to justify the war on Iraq) if he didn't even read the report ?

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

If you think the trouble we're in now is bad... So I ask the question again... What would you have done??

Let Anglo rot like it deserved. Consider propping up BoI and AIB on strict condition that they cleared the board on their inept management and accepted a maximum pay of €300,000.

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

-Aside- What happened at Anglo was wrong, but is it illegal to run your business into the ground?

You'd have to check with Bertie's mate - the financial regulator. I presume that tag-line means that they're supposed to comply with certain laws, and it certainly doesn't look like they did.

And since you already stated that it's not "their" business, as it's "required for the economy", they should have complied or been fired and/or jailed.

Tommy Bateman

mikester2006 wrote: »

Anybody else think that there is a chance of a snap late spring / early summer general election ?

For Brian Cowen and Fianna Fail, I think it might be "the least worst time" to go to the country and get a respectable showing.

Fianna Fail's poll ratings have risen recently, the last budget (while hard on public servants) was not as bad as people expected. The recession has seemed to have "bottomed out" for now, but with major tax rises (property tax and water charges) probably on the way in the next budget things will get much worse again in 2011. Also interest rates are still fairly low, and will probably go up in the future.

I think perhaps Fianna Fail might like to get out and let the opposition take some of the harsh decisions, rather than hanging on till 2012 , by which time all the hard decisions will have been made, and Fianna Fail will have "set up" a recovery / boom for an incoming FG / Labour government.

Any thoughts ?

What's good for FF is good for Ireland, and what FF can do for Ireland is twice as much as all of the other parties put together. FG don't have the courage to get us out the recession, and the smoked salmon socialists in Labour are as bad, so let Lenny and Cowen get the job done. This is business, and FF are the best there is in town right now.

kev9100

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

What's good for FF is good for Ireland, and what FF can do for Ireland is twice as much as all of the other parties put together. FG don't have the courage to get us out the recession, and the smoked salmon socialists in Labour are as bad, so let Lenny and Cowen get the job done. This is business, and FF are the best there is in town right now.

I really do hope you're taking the piss.

maynooth_rules

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

What's good for FF is good for Ireland, and what FF can do for Ireland is twice as much as all of the other parties put together. FG don't have the courage to get us out the recession, and the smoked salmon socialists in Labour are as bad, so let Lenny and Cowen get the job done. This is business, and FF are the best there is in town right now.

And that comment right there is exactly the reason the country is in the mess it is in. Blinkered people who won't look past FF. I have seen many many stupid comments on this forum, but you Mr Tommy Bateman take the biscuit.

kev9100

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

It could have been (and probably should have) 10%.

Why should it have been more? Why should someone, who is just making enough to get by anyway, be punished even more?

Liam Byrne

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

What's good for FF is good for Ireland, and what FF can do for Ireland is twice as much as all of the other parties put together.

Yeah, I mean their track record has definitely proved this! :rolleyes:

Interesting that you put the "good for FF" first, and "good for Ireland" second.

Tommy Bateman

maynooth_rules wrote: »

And that comment right there is exactly the reason the country is in the mess it is in. Blinkered people who won't look past FF. I have seen many man y stupid comments on this forum, but you Mr Tommy Bateman take the biscuit.

Them bankers and tycoons are behind the mess. The economy is now picking up, and FF will get the job done like they have always done. Love em or hate em, Lenny and Cowen are our best shot at a better future.

Liam Byrne

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

Them bankers and tycoons are behind the mess. The economy is now picking up, and FF will get the job done like they have always done. Love em or hate em, Lenny and Cowen are our best shot at a better future.

Unfortunately I think you do actually believe what you're saying.....but I can't disagree enough.

If the bankers were behind the mess (and if we ignore the incentives that FF gave them to further fuel the boom, and Ahern's mate as "regulator" ignoring the dodginess) then why didn't FF let them rot like they should have ?

Why bail them out ?

Tommy Bateman

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Unfortunately I think you do actually believe what you're saying.....but I can't disagree enough.

If the bankers were behind the mess (and if we ignore the incentives that FF gave them to further fuel the boom, and Ahern's mate as "regulator" ignoring the dodginess) then why didn't FF let them rot like they should have ?

Why bail them out ?

If we hadn't bailed them out it would have been detrimental to the economy. Lenny knew what to do, and now the economy is picking up again. Coincidence? I think not.

maynooth_rules

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

Them bankers and tycoons are behind the mess. The economy is now picking up, and FF will get the job done like they have always done. Love em or hate em, Lenny and Cowen are our best shot at a better future.

Personally I prefer a Minister of Finance to be educated on Finance/Economics , not to be a bloody Barrister. If you have spare minute, google GALWAY TENT. There is a third point to the bankers and tycoons triangle. Ill let you take a while guess who this third point is

kev9100

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

If we hadn't bailed them out it would have been detrimental to the economy. Lenny knew what to do, and now the economy is picking up again. Coincidence? I think not.

Please, just stop.

trapsagenius

Tommy Bateman wrote: »

If we hadn't bailed them out it would have been detrimental to the economy. Lenny knew what to do, and now the economy is picking up again. Coincidence? I think not.

Stop mate.You're embarrassing us real FF voters out there.(Well me at any rate)

Liam Byrne

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Personally I prefer a Minister of Finance to be educated on Finance/Economics , not to be a bloody Barrister

I'd settle for "competent" and with a sense of fairness at this stage.