Model Outlook Thread: February 2010

Deep Easterly

A new model thread for the new month and a place to discuss potential weather outlooks away from the main forecast threads. The first week in Feb looks to bring a gradual change into more unsettled conditions with rain and showers at times. At the moment, the UKMO & ECMWF are hinting at the possibility of some extremely wet weather this coming weekend as more vigorous Atlantic depressions move closer. Way too far out to be certain at this stage though but might be worth keeping an eye on.

ECMWF 12z outlook for this coming Saturday:



Will be interesting to see if this more vigorous Atlantic regime sets in as pointed out by the models this evening, or will it be a case of the Euro block holding firm and preventing the break through as has been the case over the last 2 weeks or so.

Only time will tell.

delw

deep easterly,ar we talkin storm chances coz if we lose chance of cold an atlantic storm wud do nicely(still trying to learn the graphs etc.. from u guys,p.s cheers)

nacho libre

it doesn't look like a storm to me. so nothing to get too excited about just a normal wind event with fairly heavy rain. what is more interesting from my perspective is what happens later in the weekend. this really will be the decisive point in our winter. if the atlantic breaks through the large cold block to the east then it's definitely bye bye cold and welcome to two-three weeks of mild muck.
the ukmo must feel the block will push westwards. i have some confidence they maybe right considering they were steadast in their prediction that an easterly would not take hold this week and didn't waver in the face of other models showing cold taking hold. it will be interesting to see what joe Bastardi says in his next update.

ps if there is a battleground next weekend then there could be some extremly heavy rain, considering the fronts will coming up from the south.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

it doesn't look like a storm to me. so nothing to get too excited

I wouldnt be excited about a storm, do you hold the same passion for storms as u do for snow?

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

I wouldnt be excited about a storm, do you hold the same passion for storms as u do for snow?

senor pangea, i'm disappointed you even have to ask that question;)

paddy1 wants a storm, and while i do like a storm myself, i'll always take snow and cold over stormy weather

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

paddy1 wants a storm, and while i do like a storm myself, i'll always take snow and cold over stormy weather

Would it be too much to ask if a both, i.e, a snow storm. Storm 11 winds and driving heavy snow at the same time?

Only just looked at this morning's ECM. Interesting that once again, the block prevents the real Atlantic force from making much inroads over Ireland this coming weekend. If the block is to exert its full influence over Ireland, then bring it on. But I really hope that if it does stop the Atlantic feed over Ireland, that it will not leave us in another spell of no-mans-landness. All or nothing I say, to hell with the banal and inbetween.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Would it be too much to ask if a both, i.e, a snow storm. Storm 11 winds and driving heavy snow at the same time?

Only just looked at this morning's ECM. Interesting that once again, the block prevents the real Atlantic force from making much inroads over Ireland this coming weekend. If the block is to exert its full influence over Ireland, then bring it on. But I really hope that if it does stop the Atlantic feed over Ireland, that it will not leave us in another spell of no-mans-landness. All or nothing I say, to hell with the banal and inbetween.

i'm afraid it would be living in Ireland:(:(
yes, i think we all- well those of us who like the cold and snow - would agree with your last statement.

darkman2

The models are looking increasingly cold again. ECM going for an exceptionally cold Easterly period once again next week.


Saturday





Sunday




Monday



Tuesday



Wednesday



Thursday

Deep Easterly

ECM kills off any hope of anything interesting tonight:



Prevents any Atlantic activity coming close to us. Yes, it has a more easterly flavor in its far reaches once again, but no closer to us than it showed a few days ago. In other words, the same aul nothingness for the foreseeable with average temps and feck all else.

darkman2

There is consistency now between the ECM 00z and 12z runs. The other models are gradually coming into line. Black Briar will like that above.

Redsunset

Holy crap was eating a lump of chicken while looking at 12z ECM and nearly choked.




What a rollercoaster ride this is.

Charts are settling down now and it looks very promising.Nothing nailed yet though.

Anyway if that chart above came off,well................................

nacho libre

not getting my ticket until i see all the major models in unison over a return of the cold air from europe. also, i await joe bastardi's next update with interest.

Redsunset

Joe is holding my ticket.

He's updated but nothing as regards whats ahead for here.

nacho libre

doesn't look good. surely if he thought there was major cold set to return he'd have mentioned it:(

Redsunset

Yea well maybe he has a headache too with all the models chopping and changing and now that they have settled(HOPEFULLY) he'll issue snowmageddon:D or maybe not.

Im still sitting on the fence too.

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

Im still sitting on the fence too.

Make room, I'm climbing up.

derekon

redsunset wrote: »

Holy crap was eating a lump of chicken while looking at 12z ECM and nearly choked.




What a rollercoaster ride this is.

Charts are settling down now and it looks very promising.Nothing nailed yet though.

Anyway if that chart above came off,well................................

Don't worry, it won't come off.

I seem to remember reading here last week that there could be a potentially be a very cold period this week. At the moment, we know that temps will rise to 11oC with mild muck by the weekend.

Its like the proverbial donkey and carrot. The colder snowy weather is always next week. Then when that week comes, the Atlantic has roared back in......:cool:

Derek

Redsunset

Well off to work soon,nights ya gotta love em.

0z ECM will be out by the time i get home so i've lit a candle and said a prayer that it don't downgrade:D

Deep Easterly

derekon wrote: »

Its like the proverbial donkey and carrot. The colder snowy weather is always next week. Then when that week comes, the Atlantic has roared back in......:cool:

Derek

Excellent points. Except that the Atlantic has yet to fully break in yet. We are just getting the odd flit with weak edges at the moment. It is the worst possible set up at the moment. We are neither here nor there. I will take the brunt of either but I can't see much happening weatherwise this week at least.

derekon

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Excellent points. Except that the Atlantic has yet to fully break in yet. We are just getting the odd flit with weak edges at the moment. It is the worst possible set up at the moment. We are neither here nor there. I will take the brunt of either but I can't see much happening weatherwise this week at least.

I agree totally Deep Easterly; would take a strong Atlantic storm ahead of this non descript rubbish we have at the moment. If I am being totally honest, I could not rule out snow during this February.

February has been the best month for the white stuff in Ireland for the past decade or so....:)

D

Min

The ECM has a high bringing northerly winds, it sinks north and a low pressure over Europe moves closer bringing easterly winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

delw

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Make room, I'm climbing up.

hope its a big fence,sick of getting hopes up for cold or snow,move over:mad:

nacho libre

surprise, surprise the latest ecm and gfs have backed off an easterly taking hold anytime soon. I always have less confidence in their outputs flipping again to show cold once they go with a milder scenario.
however i have a feeling if the atlantic doesn't dismantle the block in the next 7-10 days we'll eventually get a colder easterly but it won't last long. Which is in fact the pattern Joe Bastardi outlined from the 12th of January onwards right through till the first week in March.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

Which is in fact the pattern Joe Bastardi outlined from the 12th of January onwards right through till the first week in March.

Alirght already why dont you and joe get a room :P
lol

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Alirght already why dont you and joe get a room :P
lol

You say that to me after your parapraxis concerning christmas day this year;) Transference maybe:p

but seriously he is the only one to have got the weather right for this winter. paradoxically despite all the uncertainity in the models of late, i think it is becoming increasingly clear that sustained cold will not take hold again this winter. yes, we may get a return of cold continental air but it will be brief. it seems this time we are just the wrong side of the boundaries. i think this winter would have been a really severe winter throughout, to rival those fabled winters, if the core of the cold had remained throughout England rather than in Germany. i say this because we would then more than likely be the battle ground and with cold so close by, we would get significant snow from time to time as the milder air failed to dislodge the cold air over England. sure being so close to the atlantic there would be milder weather but i bet it would be brief. anyway if never won an all-ireland or any sporting event.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

seriously he is the only one to have got the weather right for this winter. .

Found a nice room for you and Joe



ha ha :pac:

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Found a nice room for you and Joe



ha ha :pac:

hahaha.

don't push it senor Pangea;)

Deep Easterly

ECM tonight back to its original plan. Moderately unsettled throughout and milder than of late:



Back to basics. Hopefully some storm potential will show up in later runs.

Redsunset

Wouldn't mind that 1050 pushing west.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECM tonight back to its original plan. Moderately unsettled throughout and milder than of late:



Back to basics. Hopefully some storm potential will show up in later runs.

you enjoy clutching at straws paddy1;) i was secretly hoping the charts would come back to showing cold taking hold:(
i think i'll just avoid reading this thread from now on there is less frustration that way:pac:

pistolpetes11

Looks like this Winter is going wimper out the back door not causing much of a fuss as it goes

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

you enjoy clutching at straws paddy1;)

Not at all, but there is little else to clutch onto these days.

Earlier this week, ECM toyed with the idea of some very wet weather for this coming weekend over Ireland; they dropped this yesterday but it seems to be back on again this evening. The reality remains to be seen however, and it will take many more runs to see if this trend is becoming established. Could well be dropped once again in later runs as the block to the NE seems unwilling to give up its stagnancy just yet.

One thing I have noticed over the last couple of years of model watching is that during the decline of big blocking HPs, there can somethings be a lag effect from it. It just seems that a lot of the easterlies over Ireland (rare at the best of times) we got over the last 2 years or so have often occurred after its main driving block had collapsed. Just a pet theory of mine and nothing to do with anything really.

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

Wouldn't mind that 1050 pushing west.

Judging by Evelyn's face there, even she looks disappointed by the current prognostics. :pac:

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not at all, but there is little else to clutch onto these days.

Earlier this week, ECM toyed with the idea of some very wet weather for this coming weekend over Ireland; they dropped this yesterday but it seems to be back on again this evening. The reality remains to be seen however, and it will take many more runs to see if this trend is becoming established. Could well be dropped once again in later runs as the block to the NE seems unwilling to give up its stagnancy just yet.

One thing I have noticed over the last couple of years of model watching is that during the decline of big blocking HPs, there can somethings be a lag effect from it. It just seems that a lot of the easterlies over Ireland (rare at the best of times) we got over the last 2 years or so have often occurred after its main driving block had collapsed. Just a pet theory of mine and nothing to do with anything really.

at the risk of getting more slagging from Pangea:pac:
joe bastardi has said the block won't properly disintegrate till around the first week in march. If that's the case and we continue in this no-mans land of nothing weather, whereby full zonality can't resume and the cold over continental air teases us but stays beyond on our grasp. then i'm officially calling time on this winter. why oh why couldn't the core of the cold have been over England.

Deep Easterly

Tonight's ECM preventing a full Atlantic breakthrough once again at 120hrs with ridge extending westwards from northern Scandinavia:



Given the unreliability of the models post 72hrs lately, large doses of salt required, but an encouraging cross model agreement this evening.

On the 850's, ridge Versus Atlantic approach:



resulting in a tightening gradient over Ireland. Looks breezy for a while if the above charts were to verify.

Deep Easterly

Just to note, the DWD 12z not really buying into this progged ridge build from the northeast:



Has the Atlantic breaking through more readily, although, like the GFS 12z, it does jar this pattern later on with lows stalling to the SW. Very uncertain times ahead.

Redsunset

Depressing forecast there from Evenlyn,saying atlantic lows keeping it very unsettled next week.

How dare she say that with confidence when models are all over the shop at the moment

Pangea

Whats the charts like for the rest of february lads.

Speak Now

Pangea wrote: »

Whats the charts like for the rest of february lads.

Interesting as usual

Deep Easterly

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Interesting as usual

On the contrary...:(

ECM still insisting on slack low pressure system to bear down over Ireland next week. Result, coastal showers with a continuation of the ever present nothingness.

Speak Now

Deep Easterly wrote: »

On the contrary...:(

ECM still insisting on slack low pressure system to bear down over Ireland next week. Result, coastal showers with a continuation of the ever present nothingness.

Could be March before you see any storms

Deep Easterly

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Could be March before you see any storms

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

On the contrary...:(

ECM still insisting on slack low pressure system to bear down over Ireland next week. Result, coastal showers with a continuation of the ever present nothingness.

yes, as we all know by now the ecmwf is usually correct and the gfs tends to overplay its hand and backtracks...
you shouldn't be pinning your hopes on a storm though this month, as the ukmo outlook for this month, which tends to be fairly reliable, backs what joe bastardi has been saying all along that the block won't be dismantled till the first week in march, so it's likely we'll just get more of the same till the end of the month at least.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Just to note, the DWD 12z not really buying into this progged ridge build from the northeast:



Has the Atlantic breaking through more readily, although, like the GFS 12z, it does jar this pattern later on with lows stalling to the SW. Very uncertain times ahead.

Well that one was fairly wrong anyway :pac::pac:

nacho libre

a late parting gift, perhaps;)

Deep Easterly

A long overdue clearing out my "favouates" links today. Found this one in the pile, watch that low swinging down from the north!

http--www.met.fu-berlin.de-terra3d-video-skycover.mpg

(you'll need WMP or similar to view)

That link doesn't work for me DE.
It actually redirects to a boards.ie page saying,this file is not found.

The site mustn't like external links and send referrals back to where they came from?

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

That link doesn't work for me DE.
It actually redirects to a boards.ie page saying,this file is not found.

The site mustn't like external links and send referrals back to where they came from?

Yeah same here BB. Trying to sort it out. Just bear with me. I think you may know the site anyway.

Edit: Here is the link address. Will need to paste it into address bar:

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/terra3d/video/skycover.mpg

Actually, works now as a link. Just click away

Deep Easterly

ECM tonight paints a grim picture. Little sign of the Atlantic breaking through with slack, col type conditions throughout. At 216hrs, nothing interesting weatherwise for Ireland, but what is interesting is how far the 552 line is south. Very unusual:



Could this be the first indicator of more active frontal zones running to the south of Ireland as we head towards the last 3rd of Feb? Who knows, but one to watch maybe..

WolfeIRE

You are right about the 552 Deep. The worst thing about all of this, according to that ECM run, is that we get stuck in 5-8c setup for the foreseeable future. Of course, this can change with every run.

Would love to cut off the Gulf Stream for a week or two, it is just getting annoying now.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECM tonight paints a grim picture. Little sign of the Atlantic breaking through with slack, col type conditions throughout. At 216hrs, nothing interesting weatherwise for Ireland, but what is interesting is how far the 552 line is south. Very unusual:



Could this be the first indicator of more active frontal zones running to the south of Ireland as we head towards the last 3rd of Feb? Who knows, but one to watch maybe..

paddy1 stop torturing yourself with if:p i realise Tuam is a fairly depressing place...but wishing your life away is not the solution:p

still you could be right there could eventually be a wind event to end the pattern of this winter. it'd be nice if it resulted in a two day snowstorm over us.