Pricewise Festival Ante Post

Colonel Sanders

Must say his picks so far have puzzled me

Imperial Commander ew Gold Cup- IMO waste of the win part as discussed here

Voler La Vedette Champion Hurdle - thought at the time that she'd be a possible bet at 33/1 or so, not the 20/1 he tipped it at. A bigger concern would have been the mares race was also an option when he tipped it. More of a possibility now seeing she misses the Irish Champion

And his latest - Twist Magic Champion Chase. Most of this horses from is going right handed (seems to love Sandown) and is a very in and out character to boot. Flopped in last year's champion chase and if I remember correctly his only chase win going left handed was a poor renewal of the Maghull at Aintree

I've often been critical of some of the 'logic' he's used to justify selections before and all three of these are questionable IMO

Morgans

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Must say his picks so far have puzzled me

Imperial Commander ew Gold Cup- IMO waste of the win part as discussed here

Voler La Vedette Champion Hurdle - thought at the time that she'd be a possible bet at 33/1 or so, not the 20/1 he tipped it at. A bigger concern would have been the mares race was also an option when he tipped it. More of a possibility now seeing she misses the Irish Champion

And his latest - Twist Magic Champion Chase. Most of this horses from is going right handed (seems to love Sandown) and is a very in and out character to boot. Flopped in last year's champion chase and if I remember correctly his only chase win going left handed was a poor renewal of the Maghull at Aintree

I've often been critical of some of the 'logic' he's used to justify selections before and all three of these are questionable IMO

I can see the Twist Magic logic. He looked like he was going to win an Arkle before falling one year. But you are probably right, Sandown at the end of the year is probably his best chance. The one thing that you could say is that he is one of the few with the actual raw ability of a champion chaser, just the question remains whether he can reproduce it on the day.

I would hope that there is a big drift on Big Zeb before the day itself. I can see why that is likely, but I think people might be too quick to write him off. I know his failings on the jumping department, but he was travelling very well before falling last year. I think he had an off day in the Tingle Creek, where he was never going as well. If he is on a going day, and it seems he needs to be kept very fresh, I think he has the talent to win a champion chase. I do accept that there is a risk involved and to be honest, I was hoping for bigger than 12/1 (8s generally) to take that chance.

I think Forpadydeplasterer will run his best race of the year, but probably wont be good enough.

Colonel Sanders

I don't disagree from a form angle. I'd be of the opinion that his tingle creek win is the best piece of 2m chase form this year. He also slammed Kalahari King at the tail end of last season. However both runs came at Sandown & he just seems much better going right handed. I thought Kalahari King would be his pick (although the price isn't over generous). Looking at the main contenders I'm becoming more and more convinced by the day that 7/4 Master Minded could look outrageously big come pub time on St Patrick's day

mdwexford

All the contenders have major flaws, i cant see who can win it apart from the Champ. Master Minded can run almost a stone below his mark and still win comfortably, im confident Nicholls will have him back 100% on the day. 7/4 is cracking value imo.

Twist Magic always had the talent but his Cheltenham record is bad albeit in strong races.

Big Zeb again has a huge engine but cannot jump at Championship pace and never will put in a clean round at Cheltenham.

If Forpadytheplasterer is good enough ill give up watching racing.

Kalahari King got smashed by Twist Magic last season and hasnt been seen since.

Petit Robin looks held and may be saved for Aintree anyway.

westlife

mdwexford wrote: »

All the contenders have major flaws, i cant see who can win it apart from the Champ. Master Minded can run almost a stone below his mark and still win comfortably, im confident Nicholls will have him back 100% on the day. 7/4 is cracking value imo.

Twist Magic always had the talent but his Cheltenham record is bad albeit in strong races.

Big Zeb again has a huge engine but cannot jump at Championship pace and never will put in a clean round at Cheltenham.

If Forpadytheplasterer is good enough ill give up watching racing.

Kalahari King got smashed by Twist Magic last season and hasnt been seen since.

Petit Robin looks held and may be saved for Aintree anyway.

In reference to Twist Magic... I am one of his detractors.. thought the horse had well and truly 'gone' since his Ascot defeat 2 years ago but if you take all the question marks over Master Minded and look at the make up of the rest of the field, his results this year would put him in with a serious chance....and Kalahari was finished for the season when bashed by Twist Magic. I think he could be the one if all is right and well with him (especially on good ground)
Also would love to see Voy Por Ustedes take his chance in this over the Ryanair. Yes, the Ryanair on paper should be an easier assignment but I would love Robert Thornton be really positive on this fella, send him off in front and hopefully get that all inportant rhythm at Cheltenham. This fella is100% a spring horse and everything has been against him so far this year (never good first time out and trip and ground wrong in Ireland) 33/1 is a smashing bet

mdwexford

There arent many question marks against Master Minded i think, people have totally over reacted to him getting beaten last time out when he was injured so draw a line through it.

Twist Magic is not a Cheltenham horse, if the race was being run at Sandown he'd have a decent chance.

Its worrying KK hasnt been seen this season though, anyway he has a ton to find.

Been a while since Voy Por was at his best and even when he was near it he got beaten 19 lengths in Master Minded's first Champion Chase.

Id find it hard to pick someone in a betting without the fav market, they all have questions to answer.

westlife

mdwexford wrote: »

1-There arent many question marks against Master Minded i think, people have totally over reacted to him getting beaten last time out when he was injured so draw a line through it.

2-Twist Magic is not a Cheltenham horse, if the race was being run at Sandown he'd have a decent chance.

3-Its worrying KK hasnt been seen this season though, anyway he has a ton to find.

4-Been a while since Voy Por was at his best and even when he was near it he got beaten 19 lengths in Master Minded's first Champion Chase.

Id find it hard to pick someone in a betting without the fav market, they all have questions to answer.

1- Its nothing to do with his last run that I worry about Master Minded, his last THREE runs have shown a marked deterioration in his form. He won the(apart from him!)worst ever Champion Chase last season (ridden right out) when his main rival fell, by 7L, with the likes of Newmill and Scotsirish getting within 10 - 12L of him. He then went to Punch and was the luckiest winner of the week against Big Zeb and then at Cheltenham first time out this year. Im not saying he will not win. At his best he was a superstar but he has not run to anything like his rating for a year (every run since rated less and less). At his best he would be 1/4 for this race... he is 7/4!

2-There is no evidence to back this up!He has run at Cheltenham 3 times. When he was right he looked the winner of the Arkle 3 out when coming down. Then ran in the Champion chase when after having his heart broke the previous run by Tamarinbleu.

3- It is a bit of a concern his no show so far but Master minded has not run to a rating of over 164 for nearly a year, most of the horses at the top of the market are around 160's and he achieved a rating of 157...AS A NOVICE!

4 - And a month later beat Master Minded 18L! Still rated 169. Has he shown deterioration? Pre Christmas is never his time of year and his win at Aintree last year was a gutsy a performance as seen all year. Not saying he will win but at 33/1 against the likes of Free world trading at half his odds I think he is a knocking each way bet.

mdwexford

It wouldnt worry me too much and as you said you are getting a bigger price due to these factors, he has seemed over the top both years after his Champion Chase wins and he was injured this year so id forgive them and in last years CC he wasnt all out or anything, he did what he had to do. And actually Voy Pors CC was worse than last years and won with a worse performance.

It is questionable whether he can repeat the brilliance of his 2008 win, i guess we will see.

Hes 0/3 at Cheltenham, him and Dont Push It were travelling well but it would have taken a good horse to go past MWDS that day. Most of his wins are right handed also which is a worry.

Yeah but he hasnt ran much, 4 runs ago he ran to 181 which is way out of reach for any of these, he has 21lbs to find on official rating so he needs MM to run way below and him to put in a lifetime best by 10lbs also.

MM was over the top and didnt stay imo, im just not sure how in love with the game VPU is anymore, he hasnt been travelling or jumping with his old zest for a while, i agree if he bounced back to the top of his form he would be a nice ew price though. He will be in the Ryanair more than likely anyway so it wont matter.

RichieLawlor

Big Zeb is a horse to avoid in the 2 mile championship races, or probably anytime he goes to England imo. He has looked a machine in small field slow run awful standard races in Ireland. His jumping just doesn't stand up to it. The Tied cottage at the end of the month will be more of the same, plod around off a slow pace, jump fluently and all of a sudden all is forgiven and people are talking about him for the QMCC again. Even when he had a chance of beating the champ at Pumchestown Geragthy asked him for a big one at the last and he nearly crumbled again. BTW Master Minded idled that day all the way in.

Twist Magic is a monkey. I've no idea what this horse is about but I wouldn't consider backing him for the Champion Chase after the last 2 years no matter how well he runs up to then ( see Kasbah Bliss imo )

Kalahari King ran a strange race in the Arkle last year but i would have had him high on the list but not now as we are yet to see him yet.

Well Chief is not the force of old, but lobes Cheltenham, strong place possibilites.

ForPadydeplasterer won't be winning a CC, look at his form it's something like 22221222. Mostly in novice races. I think his Tingle Creek run is as good as he is, and I don't think he is a proper 2 miler, lacks a bit of speed. Should run in the Ryanair.

VPU should run here imo, it's looks really weak atm and he stay really well obv, could well serve it up to them.

In Summary 7/4 about Master Minded is a steal, if he lines up he will start much shorter, all the opposition are dodgy and MM has the least questions to answer. Tom Segal is gone mad

Morgans

I cant see why Master Minded would idle at Punchestown when he has never done it elsewhere. To me he was all out, there and at Cheltenham. Just as he was all out when getting beaten at Aintree and Cheltenham this year.

The fact is that he has never repeated his first Queen Mother win. He was rated clear of Kauto Star and Denman at that stage.

He was laboured last year and won. What he runs to in March maybe good enough again, but you have to forget several lacklustre runs. I'm sure that 7/4 may look big after he wins, but there are horses not too far behind him current form at double figure prices against him. It makes sense to take these into account.

Diggy78

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Big Zeb is a horse to avoid in the 2 mile championship races, or probably anytime he goes to England imo. He has looked a machine in small field slow run awful standard races in Ireland. His jumping just doesn't stand up to it. The Tied cottage at the end of the month will be more of the same, plod around off a slow pace, jump fluently and all of a sudden all is forgiven and people are talking about him for the QMCC again. Even when he had a chance of beating the champ at Pumchestown Geragthy asked him for a big one at the last and he nearly crumbled again. BTW Master Minded idled that day all the way in.

Twist Magic is a monkey. I've no idea what this horse is about but I wouldn't consider backing him for the Champion Chase after the last 2 years no matter how well he runs up to then ( see Kasbah Bliss imo )

Kalahari King ran a strange race in the Arkle last year but i would have had him high on the list but not now as we are yet to see him yet.

Well Chief is not the force of old, but lobes Cheltenham, strong place possibilites.

ForPadydeplasterer won't be winning a CC, look at his form it's something like 22221222. Mostly in novice races. I think his Tingle Creek run is as good as he is, and I don't think he is a proper 2 miler, lacks a bit of speed. Should run in the Ryanair.

VPU should run here imo, it's looks really weak atm and he stay really well obv, could well serve it up to them.

In Summary 7/4 about Master Minded is a steal, if he lines up he will start much shorter, all the opposition are dodgy and MM has the least questions to answer. Tom Segal is gone mad

I'm not really going to argue the point about Master minded looking pretty big at 7-4, I think the same, still haven't managed to bring myself to back him yet though as we're kind of taking well being on trust and the price is a little short for me on that score alone. In saying that, I would only have considered Twist Magic and Big Zeb against him and I'm finding it harder to back them. The one that keeps popping into my head on form is obviously Twist Magic, and while I wouldn't go so far as to call him a monkey, or anything like that, I just doubt he's at all suited by Cheltenham. On this front I'm trying to dismiss his Arkle run as it was 2 out, 3 out??? when he came down. He was travelling well but 2 out at Cheltenham is almost half way (Figuritively speaking) when you consider how many drop off from this point on in most races there.
Big Zeb, at what price can we back him that accurately reflects his chances of jumping round safely and fluently? And we still dont know if he is actually good enough either.
So there I am, hours of thought on the race and zero opinion, typical.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

I cant see why Master Minded would idle at Punchestown when he has never done it elsewhere. To me he was all out, there and at Cheltenham. Just as he was all out when getting beaten at Aintree and Cheltenham this year.

Had MM won at Cheltenham, which he would have done buy for the injury, Well Chief has shown since that form amounted to nothing he would be 1/2 or maybe shorter after Big Zebs sandown run. I belive he can run to 170 and win the QMCC for reasons I've already outlined above. Therefore 7/4 is value, I think most will agree on that.

On the idling at Punchestown, I've watched it again and he doesn't look to be all out to me. PFN and Ruby agreed that he idled ( I know obv they will say this to back up there narrow win ) but there is some truth there. PFN also said we will never see another run like his 1st CC again because he is a differnt horse in so far as he keeps a bit for himself now, he's not the tearaway he once was.

While there is the possibility that he is not as good anymore. He's still better than anything else around

Morgans

Fair amount of sense in that post. There is no way of proving that he would have won but for an injury at the start of the year.

And its strange that the horse suddenly idles. Never had a problem leading from the front at Ascot or when kicking on at Cheltenham before. Watched the race again, and his ears were flat back as he was reaching for the line. Little or no sign that that he was stopping. Nicholls and Walsh, both geniuses at their profession, can come up with daft reasons to justify their high hopes of their horses. I remember lots of bull being spoken about Azertyuiop when they couldnt believe Moscow Flyer was beating him.

If anything, having watched his last three races again. I think it may be the case that he was hurting. Just when Ruby pressed the button at Chelt and more noticeably at Punchestown there wasnt a lot left. Turning in Ruby had a look behind to see if he could take it easy and if he needed to go all out for him. In the end he had enough.

If that is the case and if Nicholls solves it, then there can really be only one winner. But I dont think its nearly as clear cut as last year and the price is about right. That's the chance you take.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

Fair amount of sense in that post. There is no way of proving that he would have won but for an injury at the start of the year.

Obv its impossible to know but would you take 1/2 right now (with a run obv) about MM reversing the form with WC and MB, i know i would

Morgans wrote: »

And its strange that the horse suddenly idles. Never had a problem leading from the front at Ascot or when kicking on at Cheltenham before.

Horses are strange animals, Im of the opinion that the Melling Chase that he lost out to VPU was damaging to MM. It cant be good for a horse who showed so much speed at Cheltenham and ran away with ruby to be suddendly held up to get a further trip next time out. ( also i dont subscribe to the opinion that he didnt stay taht day, it was a tactical nightmare from Nicholls and possibly the horse doesnt like a battle ) Anyway it was a mistake to run him that day and things like that can ruin horses. ( Black Jack ketchum is my prime example, the cleeve hurdle on the heavy ground finished that horse and i wont have anyone tell me different;))

His next run was in a substandard Tingle Creek where his main rival fell 2 out ( subsequent events have proved that Twist Magic was not a beaten Horse that day, especially round sandown), Granted he was awesome in the Vc but nothing else since has been anyway impressive.

Morgans wrote: »

If that is the case and if Nicholls solves it, then there can really be only one winner. But I dont think its nearly as clear cut as last year and the price is about right. That's the chance you take.

I think MM is better than the rest by a bit, but not as good as he was. For whatever reasons. My opionions are above. Either way I think 7/4 is a good bet but as you quite rightly say

Morgans wrote: »

That's the chance you take.