Worst Five Cheltenham Favourites

Colonel Sanders

Decent read

Thankfully these days there is a pink button on Betfair if you think a supposed 'good thing'is too short

RichieLawlor

Detroit City should be on that list

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Detroit City should be on that list

Results based much?

He looked a solid fav on form before the race.

Juwwi

Carvills Hill was 1/1 in 1992 gold cup when finishing 5th.

He was an awlful jumper fell on his only other race at cheltenham.

Diggy78

mdwexford wrote: »

Results based much?

He looked a solid fav on form before the race.

Could also be results based comments coming up as you kind of convince yourself you were right afterwards! Or is that just me.
Anyway, 2 ridiculous champion hurdle favourites in recent times in my opinion were Istabraq and Rhinestone Cowboy.
Istabraq - man I loved that horse, and yes I did back him in that last race, but I knew I was just handing money over to the bookies as a tax for enjoying the horse for the previous 5 years. Never going to place, should never have been let run the horse was that unwell.
Rhinestone Cowboy - Didn't delve into the pockets this time. Novice hurdler starting as favourite for the champion, and a pretty skinny favourite at 9/4 iirc, give me a break.

Morgans

robbie1977 wrote: »

Carvills Hill was 1/1 in 1992 gold cup when finishing 5th.

He was an awlful jumper fell on his only other race at cheltenham.

Carvills Hill put up one the greatest weight carrying performances in modern history in the Welsh National. Had he been a great jumper, he would have been 1/3, undone by Jenny Pitman's spoliing tatics. He may have become undone regardless. Amazing to think that the best horse in the race besides him - The Fellow - still didnt win it.

Have to agree with Diggy on Rhinestone Cowboy. That and Sweet Wake were the two that came into my head first off. Mulligan and Tatenen also.

Juwwi

Morgans wrote: »

Carvills Hill put up one the greatest weight carrying performances in modern history in the Welsh National. Had he been a great jumper, he would have been 1/3, undone by Jenny Pitman's spoliing tatics. He may have become undone regardless. Amazing to think that the best horse in the race besides him - The Fellow - still didnt win it.

Yea I remember that welsh national he galoped them into the ground.

Interesting looking at the results there it was run on the 21st december and the prize money that year was
£23,654.00, £8,786.00, £4,243.00, £1,765.00, £732.50,

Another bad Fav was 1989 champion hurdle
Kribensis was sent off 11/8f even tho he was a 5-y-o it was his first year hurdling and he had only 3 races over hurdles before the race.

Morgans

robbie1977 wrote: »

Yea I remember that welsh national he galoped them into the ground.

Interesting looking at the results there it was run on the 21st december and the prize money that year was
£23,654.00, £8,786.00, £4,243.00, £1,765.00, £732.50,

Another bad Fav was 1989 champion hurdle
Kribensis was sent off 11/8f even tho he was a 5-y-o it was his first year hurdling and he had only 3 races over hurdles before the race.

Ah, I think Racing Post records stop around that time. Definitely won the Triumph the previous year and won the christmas hurdle as well. Think it might have been unbeaten going into that Champion Hurdle. Won it the following year, so the talent was definitely there. Down as being trained by Stoute, but was in fact trained by assistant James Fawnshawe. (repeated the trick with Royal Gait in 1992)

Alderbrook won the champion hurdle on his third ever run in 1995.

Colonel Sanders

Detroit City was a terrible price. Was a worthy enough favourite but on the day he just kept contracting. I was in the ring rubbing my eyes in disbelief when he went 6/4

Altho he was the form horse going into the race so maybe not what is required here

westlife

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Detroit City was a terrible price. Was a worthy enough favourite but on the day he just kept contracting. I was in the ring rubbing my eyes in disbelief when he went 6/4

Altho he was the form horse going into the race so maybe not what is required here

I laid him all day long that day.he had won 4 and 5 horse races when no pressure was put on his jumping (had never looked a natural). I know he won the triumph but the Champion hurdle pace is something different to every other 2m race. He was beat after mistakes at the first 2.

podsieboy

kasbah bliss last year flopped in a big way

RichieLawlor

podsieboy wrote: »

kasbah bliss last year flopped in a big way

You just didn't bother reading the article at all did ya?

meriwether

I came in to say Beef or Salmon. No logic to that price, bar misguided Paddies and 'its his turn'.

podsieboy

i did read it but i ment sorry thet it would of been my number one

UrbanSea

Thought cousin vinny was a poor favourite last year.I know you have to be a good horse to win the champion bumper,but he hardly set the world alight over hurdles,and continuing to dissappoint over fences

cson

Have to agree with that, Cousin Vinny has gone very sour since winning the Champion Bumper. I'll reserve my final judgement until I see him on good ground though.

Morgans

I think people saying that Cousin Vinny was a bad favourite are looking with the benefit of hindsight. Even using form with Hurricane Fly he was superior to Go Native at home and was unlucky not to hack up in the best trial. Anything else other than Cousin Vinny would have been an even more ropey favourite. Medermit ascot form had suffered several knocks before cheltenham. If anything legitamite could be levelled at Cousin Vinny, it was the fact that he was probably better suited to the 2m5 race, but of course the stable had that wrapped up. 9/4 wasnt too short in the circumstances then.

UrbanSea

I can see what you mean by hindsight,but even before the race I just wasnt't convinced.
If this horse was from an English stable the price probably would have been nearer 5/1. The price of it was far too low,the only reason it was 9/4 was that (as paddy power said) 'everyone in Ireland had backed it.' Their liability was something like 2million on that horse alone.That is alot for a single bookmaker on a novice hurdle

cson

The Supreme is always a trappy contest though.

premierstone

cson wrote: »

The Supreme is always a trappy contest though.

Not this year my good man!!

UrbanSea

premierstone wrote: »

Not this year my good man!!

Who do you fancy?

premierstone

greetings wrote: »

Who do you fancy?

Machine of a yoke, will win on the bridle and will be back next year to win the Champion for he's third festival win.......cant for the life of me think of he's name but someone here should know!!

sting60

robbie1977 wrote: »

Carvills Hill was 1/1 in 1992 gold cup when finishing 5th.

He was an awlful jumper fell on his only other race at cheltenham.

CORRECT, HE WAS A POOR JUMPER BUT HE HAD A TERRIBLE BACK EVEN BEFORE HE WON HIS FIRST BUMPER.I MADE ALOT OF MONEY FROM THIS SUPER HORSE AND WOULD LIKE TO SAY MORE BUT I WONT. PIPE GOT THE HORSE ENOUGH SAID.

UrbanSea

premierstone wrote: »

Machine of a yoke, will win on the bridle and will be back next year to win the Champion for he's third festival win.......cant for the life of me think of he's name but someone here should know!!

Aw think I heard of such a horse.
Cant think of it's name..:P

cson

premierstone wrote: »

Not this year my good man!!

Not unless he sorts his jumping out. Though I am of the mind he'll jump better in a faster run race which it will be in Cheltenham.

Colonel Sanders

Another one:

Supreme Novice hurlde disasters

Dunguib would not be the first 'unbeatable' novice hurdler to get turned over at the Cheltenham Festival

Might there be something as classy as Go Native, last year's winner, among the bigger-priced runners in this year's Supreme?

A few weeks ago, I listed the five worst favourites at the Cheltenham Festival over the past decade as a sort of warning, for me as much as anyone else, against getting too excited about any horse this year. Cheltenham, I cautioned, produces the most competitive jumps action of the entire year. No matter how good you think a horse is, he can always be beaten.

Well, it seems I may as well have warned birds against flying. Dunguib is now odds-on across the board for the Supreme Novice Hurdle, the Festival's opening race, which is still more than a month away. Some firms have him as short as 4-6 and still report takers. What madness is this?

I have nothing against Dunguib, or "The Dung" as he was recently christened by a reader on our racing blog. He's a handsome beast and it was hard not to be impressed by the effortless way he loped around Leopardstown in what was ostensibly a Grade One on Sunday. No, he didn't jump very well, but he was only going at half-speed and gave the distinct impression that he would be more fluent behind a stronger pace.

But there are reasons beyond simple cowardice that prevent me from piling in with all the other mugs. Dunguib is, at seven, older than all but four of the last 37 winners of the Supreme and has done almost all of his racing on very soft or heavy going. On what will probably be a sounder surface at Cheltenham, he may not have quite the same turn of foot as a younger rival. Of course, he won the flat race at the last Festival on good to soft ground, which goes some way to allaying those fears.

Still, my fundamental objection to Dunguib's odds is a more general point. How can any horse be such a short price for a race in which so little is known about so many of the contenders? Oscar Whiskey and Blackstairmountain, to pick just two examples from the top of the betting, have each raced just once over hurdles. They certainly have more to prove than Dunguib but they could, for all we know, be better than him.

The Supreme has always been the race where we find out the pecking order among the speedy young hurdlers and it has thrown up plenty of surprises. Flyingbolt won for the money-buyers at 4-9 and Golden Cygnet followed up at 4-5 but there have been two winners at 40-1 and another at 50-1 since then.
I included Sweet Wake, a 5-2 flop in the Supreme, among my five worst Festival favourites, but the race has had five beaten favourites at even shorter prices in the last 20 years. Before you get swallowed up by the hype, remind yourself of their sorry stories. Then maybe you won't suffer when The Dung hits the fan.

5) Cousin Vinny, fifth at 9-4 in 2009
The year before Dunguib was such an impressive winner of the Champion Bumper, Cousin Vinny was the object of much adoration after a three-length success in the same race. Pitched into a Grade One for his hurdling debut, he was a promising third and was then a wide-margin winner of two much easier races.
Like Dunguib, he was a short-priced favourite to beat a handful of rivals in Leopardstown's Deloitte Hurdle, his Festival warm-up.

Like Dunguib, he cantered round with effortless ease but then parted from the script by stumbling on landing over the last and unseating his amateur rider, Patrick Mullins, son of Willie, the horse's trainer.

Punters are a forgiving lot. Mullins Jr was back in the saddle for the Supreme but the money still poured on to Cousin Vinny. His jumping was less than fluent but he was still there with a chance until the final flight, where a blunder cost him vital momentum.

It had been widely reported beforehand that the horse had been made ill by his voyage over from Ireland, one of those "wild card" factors that Dunguib fans should remember to worry about.

Those who lost on Cousin Vinny could tell themselves that it made the difference but the horse has been beaten in all four races since then, three over fences, and it seems more likely that he is just not quite as good as was thought.

4) Amaretto Rose, third at 2-1 in 2007
Trained by Nicky Henderson, this mare could not have been more impressive in winning her first two starts over hurdles, beating 15 rivals by 13 lengths at Ascot in December and then winning a Grade Two at Haydock by 18 lengths in February. She had won on good to soft and heavy going, had won a bumper on good ground, and seemed bombproof.

Alas, stepped up into the very best company in the Supreme, she wasn't quite good enough, even with 7lb less on her back than her male rivals. She travelled beautifully through the race and seemed the likely winner at the turn for home, only to be outpaced by Ebaziyan and Granit Jack.

Henderson later reported that she had been struck into, probably at the second-last flight. The injury was said to have caused continuing problems and she ran just once more, in the Kingwell of 2008, when Mick Fitzgerald pulled her up after feeling that she may have gone lame. She was then retired to stud.

3) Finnegan's Hollow, fell at 2-1 in 1997
Remarkably, Finnegan's Hollow was this short for the Supreme despite having been beaten on his two previous starts. But context is everything and it was clear, even at this stage, that there was no shame in being beaten a head by Istabraq, which is what had happened to him on his final prep in the Deloitte.

Indeed, there was some suggestion that Finnegan's Hollow may even have beaten Istabraq, representing the same owner and trainer, if Conor O'Dwyer had been more insistent with his effort on the run-in. The stewards went so far as to hold an inquiry but were apparently satisfied with the jockey's explanation that his mount, who had burst a blood vessel in the past, had "emptied" close home.

Finnegan's Hollow did not get the chance to empty in the Supreme. Having cantered through the race, he was upsides the leader and going well when falling at the third-last. He would, in any case, have had to fight hard to beat Shadow Leader, who won by 10 lengths, but his backers must have been convinced they were hard done-by and who dares tell them otherwise?

They never got their money back. Finnegan's Hollow finished lame on his next start and did not look the same horse thereafter, losing all 14 races.

2) Granville Again, 2nd at 2-1 in 1991
It was obvious that Granville Again was pretty good. His form figures in bumpers read 112, which he followed with a second and three wins over hurdles. On his last start before Cheltenham, he won the Dovecote at Kempton, a Grade Two, by 15 lengths.

Any punter who convinced themselves that this was a top-class horse were right on the money. He went on to win the 1993 Champion Hurdle and he may well have won it the year before as well, but for falling at the second-last. After his hurdling debut, he won eight of his next nine races.

The defeat, of course, came in the Supreme, when a good horse can always bump into a slightly better one. Granville Again may not have enjoyed the clearest of runs but, at the line, he trailed four lengths behind Destriero, who had been an easy winner of his only previous start over hurdles.

The winner was owned by the high-rolling poker player Noel Furlong, who organised a huge late gamble on his horse and claimed to have won £1m. Granville Again's defeat didn't save every bookie's bacon.

1) Youlneverwalkalone, third at 5-4 in 2000
Owned, like Finnegan's Hollow, by JP McManus, this horse had a huge reputation and was an easy and popular winner of the Deloitte at odds of 8-13. Since he was not forced down to odds-on for the Supreme, we can perhaps conclude that punters were harder to impress in those days.

In hindsight, Youlneverwalkalone was probably unsuited by the steady early pace. He travelled well, close behind the leaders, from the off, but he couldn't match Sausalito Bay's turn of foot on the run-in and was passed by Best Mate for second place.

He eventually got his Festival moment, in a three-mile handicap chase three years later. If that was going to be his sort of race, it is little wonder that he couldn't quite cope with the Supreme.

Can anyone be sure that Dunguib won't be a staying chaser three years from now?

Colonel Sanders

of those 5 I actually backed Youlneverwalkalone and laid Amaretto Rose

westlife2010

Not 100% sure , a long time ago, but i think a horse called Ararun trained by Paddy Mullins was backed off the boards for the 1985 Supreme (down to 4/5 at one stage...... I THINK!) and ran a stinker. Looked a star before this.

Colonel Sanders

In fairness it would only be right to add in a few winning jollies too, especially 3 in a row from 2002-2004:

1.Like-a-butterfly - massive Irish punt in the opener in 2002. I thought she was a certainty on everything bar the stats. Had, what was at the time, a huge bet at 9/4 in the morning. Freddie Williams laid 225,000/100,000 (I'm assuming it was to JP) and there were a pile of other monster on course bets. Adamant Approach looked to have both the mare and Westender in trouble approaching the last but crumpled on landing after jumping the last

2.Back in Front - Drifted from 2/1 out to 3/1 on course, despite a few hefty wagers as cash came for Kicking King and Thisthatantother. I lumped on at 5/2 and was very frustrated to see him drift further. Took it up 2 out and the rest is history. The first race of my first festival attendance, boy was that sweet! Started the greatest punting festival ever!

3.Brave Inca - Didn't start too short but was heavily backed in the week before the festival and the support continued on course. Won a thriller from War of Attrition. A mate of mine had been having fivers and tenners on WOA all year at big prices and in the end stood to win over 10k (he was a student at the time). Glad I wasn't standing by him when the decision went to Brave Inca!!!

I'm sure there are many others but most were probably long before my time

mdwexford

Back In Front was my first time being at the course as well, sadly i didnt back him though.

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

Back In Front was my first time being at the course as well, sadly i didnt back him though.

I remember talking to you just before the race

That gives away who I am in case you haven't guessed by now!!!

mdwexford

NO WAY!!!

Wow had no idea that was you, haha.

Colonel Sanders

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_8KSgxz4pg

One from well before my time, unfortunately killed before he could fulfil his full potential

EDIT: Fixed link!!

Shane732

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

3.Brave Inca - Didn't start too short but was heavily backed in the week before the festival and the support continued on course. Won a thriller from War of Attrition. A mate of mine had been having fivers and tenners on WOA all year at big prices and in the end stood to win over 10k (he was a student at the time). Glad I wasn't standing by him when the decision went to Brave Inca!!!

I'm sure there are many others but most were probably long before my time

One of the most amazing races I've ever seen. Absolutely loved that horse and won a tidy some off him too. If only he was around now!