Ten million at risk from flooding in the UK

Amhran Nua

Interesting article from the BBC here:

Rising sea levels and more storms could mean that parts of at-risk cities will need to be surrendered to protect homes and businesses, a report warns.
The authors say that "radical thinking" is needed to develop sea defences that can cope with the future threats.
About 10 million people in England and Wales live in flood risk areas.
The project, launched on Friday, is a joint venture between the Institution of Civil Engineers (Ice) and the Royal Institute of British Architects (Riba).
The report, Facing up to Rising Sea Levels, urges the government, planning authorities and the public, to act sooner rather than later.
"If we act now, we can adapt in such a way that will prevent mass disruption and allow coastal communities to continue to prosper," said Riba president Ruth Reed.
"But the key word is 'now'," she added.
The study warns that rising sea levels, an increase in the frequency of storms and sinking landmasses could leave many UK coastal areas vulnerable to extreme flooding.

Seeing as we're an island as well, does anyone have any idea what plans, if any, have the government made to insure us against rising sea levels (beyond trying to buy up sloping fields to corner the market on beachfront property)? And whatever the cause it does seem to be a demonstrable fact that they are rising. The majority of our population lives near the coast, if we have to relocate Dublin or Cork further inland I can only imagine the staggering costs involved.

What should we be planning to do? Dutch dykes or building a new capital in the Wicklow mountains?

The only figures that BBC article gives is that some island is only 3m above sea level. IPCC estimate that sea levels will rise approx 23 inches by 2100.

Is this one of those stupid articles that makes greens look like alarmists?
I`d like more facts and figures otherwise it reads like tabloid nonsense and thats a shame if there is something genuine behind it all.

ConsiderThis

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Interesting article from the BBC here:


...The authors say that "radical thinking" is needed to develop sea defences that can cope with the future threats.
About 10 million people in England and Wales live in flood risk areas.
The project, launched on Friday, is a joint venture between the Institution of Civil Engineers (Ice) and the Royal Institute of British Architects (Riba).
The report, Facing up to Rising Sea Levels, urges the government, planning authorities and the public, to act sooner rather than later.
"If we act now, we can adapt in such a way that will prevent mass disruption and allow coastal communities to continue to prosper," said Riba president Ruth Reed.
"But the key word is 'now'," she added.
The study warns that rising sea levels, an increase in the frequency of storms and sinking landmasses could leave many UK coastal areas vulnerable to extreme flooding...

It may be a coincidence, but the authors of the study, Institution of Civil Engineers (Ice) and the Royal Institute of British Architects (Riba), happen to be the same people who would seem to benefit from any work involved to either study this or to do work to rectify this.

10 million people being "at risk" is not defined. 2009 was the wettest year on record, and the vast majority of these 10 million people seem to have fared pretty well - certainly I didn't read the reports of 10 million people in the UK being flooded in 2009, or 2008 or in any year in the last 50 years.

Deleted User wrote: »

...IPCC estimate that sea levels will rise approx 23 inches by 2100.

Having read this thread http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055802206 it's hard to take what the IPCC says seriously as the appear to base their predictions on rather dubious "research".

But I agree, this does seem like yet another alarmist article from the BBC, which appears to becoming more and more tabloid in it's journalism, presumably in an attempt to "compete" with Sky News and CNN.

Amhran Nua

At the end of the day though, sea levels are rising, and have been for quite some time, there's no question of that. I'm not talking about the why of it, just the stuff you can measure with a ruler.

The point of the article is that the time to begin preparing for the changes this will have on coastal settlements is now rather than when the waves are lapping at your ankles, and I think its a point worth contemplating. 23 inches doesn't sound like much, but it could be quite significant in low lying areas and will definetely affect the coastline.

Also, giving a ninety year timeline to work out the details doesn't seem all that alarmist in fairness. The three options in the article are:

• Retreat - moving "critical infrastructure" and housing to safer ground, allowing the water into parts of the city
• Defend - building city-wide sea defences to ensure water does not enter the existing urban area
• Attack - extending the existing coastline and building out on to the water (using stilts, floating structures and/or land reclamation)

ConsiderThis

Amhran Nua wrote: »

At the end of the day though, sea levels are rising, ...

Where are they rising and by how much? And who is making the claim that they have been rising?

Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, (formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change), who for 35 years has been using every known scientific method to study sea levels all over the globe says that, despite fluctuations down as well as up, "the sea is not rising. "It hasn't risen in 50 years." If there is any rise this century it will "not be more than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm".

Here is a transcript of an interview by Dr. Nils Alex-Mörner; http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2007/2007_20-29/2007-25/pdf/33-37_725.pdf which makes interesting reading.

Tipsy Mac

Flooding involves a flood, rising sea levels are completely different. The vast majority of recent flooding in Ireland was caused by corrupt and incompetent planning.

Amhran Nua

ConsiderThis wrote: »

Where are they rising and by how much? And who is making the claim that they have been rising?

Here's a couple of links to get you going. Can we for the sake of the discussion at least just assume we're in an interglacial period, at minimum, and sea levels are, in fact, rising.

Tipsy Mac wrote: »

Flooding involves a flood, rising sea levels are completely different. The vast majority of recent flooding in Ireland was caused by corrupt and incompetent planning.

Okay, and when sea levels rise, they cause..?

ConsiderThis

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Here's a couple of links to get you going. Can we for the sake of the discussion at least just assume we're in an interglacial period, at minimum, and sea levels are, in fact, rising.


Okay, and when sea levels rise, they cause..?

One of your links says "...tide-gauge data from 1950 to 2000 indicates a larger rate of rise after 1993 and other periods of rapid sea-level rise but no significant acceleration over this period" and the other link says "...no acceleration during the last century has been detected..."

It would be great if you could actually make the argument for the effect you are predicting, rather than give links to the historical situation.

Amhran Nua

ConsiderThis wrote: »

One of your links says "...tide-gauge data from 1950 to 2000 indicates a larger rate of rise after 1993 and other periods of rapid sea-level rise but no significant acceleration over this period" and the other link says "...no acceleration during the last century has been detected..."

It would be great if you could actually make the argument for the effect you are predicting, rather than give links to the historical situation.

I give up. There really is no place like boards.

ConsiderThis

Amhran Nua wrote: »

I give up. There really is no place like boards.

There is no such thing like evidence!

djpbarry

ConsiderThis wrote: »

Where are they rising and by how much? And who is making the claim that they have been rising?

NASA, for starters.

ConsiderThis wrote: »

Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, (formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change), who for 35 years has been using every known scientific method to study sea levels all over the globe says that, despite fluctuations down as well as up, "the sea is not rising. "It hasn't risen in 50 years."

His work in The Maldives has not been supported by follow-up studies.

For the purposes of this discussion, it is assumed that sea levels are rising. If you want to argue otherwise, there are at least three current threads on the science of climate change that would be more appropriate for that particular avenue of discussion.