My 10 Places for Money in 2010

pocketdooz

Apologies for the late posting but been away in London the past few weeks. Prices are as of January 1st 2010.

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010

1. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12

4. Liberty Global (LBTYA) - 22.02

5. Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) - 37.50

6. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35

7. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67

8. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71

9. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66

10. Daily Mail and General Trust - 4.19

Happy New Year

Good Luck




.

stepbar

What's the logic behind the picks? (for those who would not be fully up to speed with the companies mentioned.... including me!)

heno55

tiny bid 3.93 ask 5.38, thats some spread

pocketdooz

heno55 wrote: »

tiny bid 3.93 ask 5.38, thats some spread

Markets are closed. That's not correct.

heno55

doh

Lexus1976

pocketdooz wrote: »

Apologies for the late posting but been away in London the past few weeks. Prices are as of January 1st 2010.

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010

1. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12

4. Liberty Global (LBTYA) - 22.02

5. Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) - 37.50

6. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35

7. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67

8. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71

9. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66

10. Daily Mail and General Trust - 4.19

Happy New Year

Good Luck




.

Best of luck with your share picks for 2010.

displaced dub

i thought you were dead, good to see you back,interesting pics PD, best of luck.

lucky-colm

displaced dub wrote: »

i thought you were dead, good to see you back,interesting pics PD, best of luck.

lol


but i will probably get some money in on these
thanks pd

Raskolnikov

Are you in Sterling-based stocks because you think the FTSE will perform well, or because you're because you still like Sterling?

Smcgie

I have mostly all sterling stocks since the euro was at 94/95p its an added little bonus

woodseb

interesting picks, though a bit heavy on media/advertising for my liking - good luck anyway

pocketdooz

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Are you in Sterling-based stocks because you think the FTSE will perform well, or because you're because you still like Sterling?

This is just an exercise in absolute return. Assume investments are fully hedged.

pocketdooz

woodseb wrote: »

interesting picks, though a bit heavy on media/advertising for my liking - good luck anyway

For sure, there is a heavy weighting to Media/Advertising - 4 of the stocks (PUB/AGS/DMGT and MDCA) are relatively pure play media buyers or tied to advertising. I think that sector will outperform the market this year.

pocketdooz

stepbar wrote: »

What's the logic behind the picks? (for those who would not be fully up to speed with the companies mentioned.... including me!)

I meant to get this down in a format that would suit Boards by now but I've been too busy, sorry.

I will as soon as possible.

.

pocketdooz

displaced dub wrote: »

i thought you were dead, good to see you back,interesting pics PD, best of luck.

Not dead thankfully.

Still a few years left in me.

pocketdooz

lucky-colm wrote: »

lol


but i will probably get some money in on these
thanks pd

Please do some of your own research before investing. All these companies have good IR sections on their websites (bar TINY and MDC).

.

pocketdooz

Lexus1976 wrote: »

Best of luck with your share picks for 2010.

Thanks.

Smcgie

Likewise PD it takes a brave person to disclose their porfolio like this.

Very best of luck

chaz1414

could anybody recommend me a good site to buy some of these shares, i tried to set uo an e-trade acc. but they said that they are currently reviewing there offer.thanks

pirelli

chaz1414 wrote: »

could anybody recommend me a good site to buy some of these shares, i tried to set uo an e-trade acc. but they said that they are currently reviewing there offer.thanks

Interactive brokers

ixus

chaz1414 wrote: »

could anybody recommend me a good site to buy some of these shares, i tried to set uo an e-trade acc. but they said that they are currently reviewing there offer.thanks

Why do you want to buy them? Because a random poster on boards suggested them? Have you done your own research?

I've a lot of respect for Pockets trading/investing views but, he's the first one himself to say do your own research.

Investments may go up as well as down etc.

displaced dub

chaz1414 wrote: »

could anybody recommend me a good site to buy some of these shares, i tried to set uo an e-trade acc. but they said that they are currently reviewing there offer.thanks

Have you even looked at some of the companies in Pockets 10 places for money???

How do you know he's not just taking the piss and trying to prove that you have to do your own research??

First thing i did was copy them one by one into google and then i had a look at there investor sections.... I suggest you start there first and then worry about opening an account.

Believe me silly mistakes cost real money... i should know!!!

chaz1414

im only investing a small amount so it wont bother me too much if i lose...

pocketdooz

stepbar wrote: »

What's the logic behind the picks? (for those who would not be fully up to speed with the companies mentioned.... including me!)

Logic behind BSkyB and Daily Mail and General Trust

BSkyB
Sky Broadcasting is one of the only European media stocks that is coming out of this recession stronger than it was going in. The Company serves just under 10 million customers in the UK and offers the most popular premium content available. With very little debt (less than two times net leverage) and no bond maturities for at least 5 years, the Company is in a position to focus on its operations and does not face the massive wall of maturities other UK companies face in 2011 – 2013.

Having moved from a satellite broadcasting model to its current model of providing HDTV and soon to be 3DTV in addition to jumping on BT’s copper network and offering telephone services and broadband, SKY is finding further ways of convincing its customers to sign up and never quit. During the recession of the last 12 – 18 months, the Company continued to sign up new customers, with the vast majority signing up to the higher margin HD and Sky Box services. SKY’s HD option costs about £10 extra per month which almost entirely gets booked to profit. SKY is also the fastest growing broadband provider in the UK with 2 million customers currently from a base of zero 3 years ago.

In aggregate, SKY has a bigger business (more subscribers), deeper customer relationships (more multi product subscribers), better technology positioning (HD rollout addressing Video on Demand threat and new 3D offering servicing the Avatar-related 3D demand). “Pay-TV” has become a must-have for households throughout the UK and Ireland due to SKY and people think nothing of paying 50-60 for their TV now whereas 10 years ago it was all free. SKY and Virgin Media have convinced us we need 100+ channels and once customers sign up, churn rates are low, even lower when you get the SKY Box, internet and telephone services (the “triple play” model).

If SKY can post 9% revenue growth in the 12 months to September 2009, while the UK and Ireland are in their worst recession in years and GDP falls by 4% in the UK, I am confident the Company can continue to grow in 2010 when the economy rebounds and the Company continues to grow HD services and the advertising market returns.

DMGT
Daily Mail and General Trust sounds like a newspaper publishing group but when you dig a bit deeper into the Company you’ll realise that in fact 70% of Operating Profit comes from sources outside their newspaper operations. So what exactly is the Company? The national newspapers, Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday are the second most popular newspapers in the UK and while Im not a fan of the newspaper model, circulation is outpacing the overall market and they are gaining market share over the past 2 years. However, the real value is elsewhere.

DMGT has changed over the past few years from a UK newspaper publisher to an international professional publisher and have exited a lot of their crappier businesses, for example, Evening Standard, London Lite, Teletext, Irish free papers (metro etc) and a 50% stake in Australian Radio. It is now focusing on its other businesses including RMS, Euromoney, information providers for commodity exchanges etc. These are higher growth, higher margin businesses with subscription models vs. the newspapers which are advertising models, something I hate.

Despite the fact that a declining 30% of operating profit comes from newspapers, the market still values this Company as a newspaper publisher like Gannet or Trinity Mirror instead of a professional publisher like Informa or Pearson. I believe this will become clear eventually and the valuation on this Company will increase as the market realises what DMGT really is. In addition, the £150 million of cost savings and lower newsprint costs will help.

pocketdooz

chaz1414 wrote: »

im only investing a small amount so it wont bother me too much if i lose...

This is a terrible attitude.

The first rule of investing is not to lose money. Second rule is read the first rule.

.

pocketdooz

stepbar wrote: »

What's the logic behind the picks? (for those who would not be fully up to speed with the companies mentioned.... including me!)

TINY

Harris and Harris are a New York based publicly traded venture capital company that specialises in early-stage privately-held nanotechnology and biotech companies. It was founded in 1981 and has concentrated its investments primarily in nanotech companies since 2002. Their portfolio is now completely made up of investments in 28 active companies valued at an aggregate $70 million (fluctuates).

These companies are all private and cannot be invested in directly. TINY's maturing portfolio provides it with many opportunities from which it must produce just a few significant winners to significantly boost its net asset value (NAV). In the future, IPOs or profitable acquisitions will significantly drive up TINY's NAV and thus their share price. I expect that when the credit markets open up fully again and the US and international economies recover, the number of clean energy, biotech and nanotech IPOs will subtantially increase.

This publicly traded venture capital fund represents a truly unique opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a diversified group of nanotech companies without the constraints of a traditional investment in a private equity fund.

Obviously this is a high risk investment and one that I have only scratched the surface on here. This is one of my favourite stocks and one I have followed for a long time. Not for the faint-hearted but in the long-run I think this high-beta stock will produce stellar returns.


.

displaced dub

I bought BskyB in November and i am pretty happy to hold it for awhile and see where it goes,it wasn't a hard pic for me because when i look around where i live in the countryside all i see is dishes.. If they could get broadband into every home that has a dish the potential is massive.

Tiny, i had a read of the investor relations section and i was lost half way through it as its a section i dont fully understand, and when i fully understand exactly what they are doing i will invest a smallish amount.

pocketdooz

Virgin Media

Virgin Media is a key beneficiary of growing consumer demand for 'broadband quality' and bandwidth demand as a result of increasing use of online videos among consumers. This will allow the company to increase its pricing power, driving strong operating leverage on a restructured cost base.

The company has a cable network that passes about half of the UK's homes and can offer the fastest broadband speeds of any company in the UK and Ireland. In addition the Company provides TV services over cable and telephony services to the home and also to mobile through Virgin Mobile, meaning it is the first company to be able to offer Quad-Play services (TV/Broadband/Fixedline/Mobile) in the UK.

Virgin will have increased pricing power driving increasing spending per customer and increasing profit margins. As the company has now dealt with most of its debt maturity issues over the past year, focus should shift to returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. With the additional listing on the London exchange recently, the stock is no longer just registered on the NASDAQ which should increase appetite for this stock further.

Virgin is starting to acquire 'utility-like' characteristics, justifying an increased EV/EBITDA multiple to historical levels (7.5x+) vs. where it is now (6.5x). Its peak multiple was 8.0x, I think it will get to 7.0x by year end 2010.

pocketdooz

Aegis Group Plc

Aegis Group is an international media and market research holding company, fifth in size of the advertising agencies, ahead of Havas, and behind the 'Big Four' advertising agencies, WPP, Omnicom, Publicis Groupe and Interpublic Group.

The Company consists of two global marketing services segments, Aegis Media and Synovate. Aegis Media is one of the world's leading independent media communications networks and provides media planning and buying, communications planning and digital advertising services through two principal media networks (Carat and Vizeum) as well as a leading outdoor unit (Posterscope) and a digital and interactive media network (Isobar). Synovate is a market research group, primarily focused on providing custom/ad hoc research services to companies globally.

Just less than 30% of the Aegis Group equity is controlled by Vincent Bollore, one of France's richest men who is also Chairman of Havas, with a 33% controlling interest in that group. In my opinion, Havas will pitch for Aegis this year - combining the two companies so they can compete better with their much larger competitors.

Even if Havas does not attempt a takeover the company has booked a record amount of new business in the past 12 months, has recovered strongly from the recession and has the second highest exposure to digital media of all the agencies.

pocketdooz

Marriott International

Marriott International is (in my opinion) the strongest, best run international hotel operator in the world. Obviously this Company got hammered during the downturn but will rebound strongly as the economy recovers. Recently, the Company has shown greater-than-expected gross room additions for 2009, stronger-than-expected international RevPAR performance (RevPAR is Revenue per available room).

Marriott expects to add 38,000 rooms to its worldwide lodging system (versus previous guidance of 33,000 rooms). Domestic conversion activity and international new builds remain strong, driving the higher-than-expected new room additions. The stronger-than-expected international RevPAR performance was driven by greater than expected demand and occupancy levels at its
international properties.

As the owner of the Renaissance and Ritz Carlton brands and over 2,500 hotels worldwide the Company is very levered to any rebound in global GDP. Equity prices should rebound ahead of GDP growth.

MacStacked

Smcgie wrote: »

Likewise PD it takes a brave person to disclose their porfolio like this.

Very best of luck

Just to echo Smcgie, much appreciate the time and effort you take to put these posts together and give your opinions for why you are investing them.

Best of luck with them in 2010.

pocketdooz

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2010)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 37.50 - down 2.6% to 36.53

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17 - up 0.6% to 1.18

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12 - down 16.4% to 14.31

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52 - down 10.4% to 4.05

5. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35 - up 2.9% to 8.59

6. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67 - up 2.0% to 29.25

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 22.02 - up 14.3% to 25.16

8. Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) - 4.19 - up 8.1% to 4.53

9. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71 - down 6.0% to 26.06

10. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66 - down 5.4% to 5.36

Total Portfolio decrease from January 1st 2010 to February 5th 2010 was 1.2%

Compares to a decrease of 3.8% for the DJIA and a 5.8% for the S&P

Raskolnikov

pocketdooz wrote: »

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2010)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 37.50 - down 2.6% to 36.53

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17 - up 0.6% to 1.18

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12 - down 16.4% to 14.31

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52 - down 10.4% to 4.05

5. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35 - up 2.9% to 8.59

6. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67 - up 2.0% to 29.25

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 22.02 - up 14.3% to 25.16

8. Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) - 4.19 - up 8.1% to 4.53

9. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71 - down 6.0% to 26.06

10. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66 - down 5.4% to 5.36

Total Portfolio decrease from January 1st 2010 to February 5th 2010 was 1.2%

Compares to a decrease of 3.8% for the DJIA and a 5.8% for the S&P

What do you use for ideas? Stock screeners, new lows lists, annual reports, etc?

pocketdooz

Raskolnikov wrote: »

What do you use for ideas? Stock screeners, new lows lists, annual reports, etc?

Some of the stocks there I've covered since college, others I learn about by reading Conviction lists or generally reading investment articles (Barrons etc). I usually try and focus on industries I understand and try and choose companies where the potential is there for the multiples to increase.

General investment thesus is semi-conservative and I usually look for companies that generate decent amounts of cash, where management has a track record of making accretive acquisitions, where the company has a very strong market share, no debt maturity issues and a reason to exist (i.e. if the Company went bust in the morning would anyone care?)

.

pocketdooz

The market has taken a bit of a beating in January and February but we are still up over 3.0% in two months vs. the market which is down.

---

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2010)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 37.50 - up 3.6% to 38.85

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17 - up 2.8% to 1.20

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12 - down 9.8% to 15.44 (buy this stock now IMO)

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52 - up 8.8% to 4.92

5. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35 - up 2.9% to 8.59

6. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67 - up 0.0% to 28.68

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 22.02 - up 20.4% to 26.52

8. Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) - 4.19 - up 7.7% to 4.51

9. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71 - down 1.0% to 27.42

10. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66 - down 4.3% to 5.42

Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2010 to February 24th 2010 was 3.3%

Compares to a decrease of 0.2% for the DJIA and a 2.2% drop for the S&P

pocketdooz

pocketdooz wrote: »

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12 - down 9.8% to 15.44 (buy this stock now IMO)

Up 7.1% this morning. Lovely.

BendTheBar

great call on that Pocket.....

Block (8

pocketdooz wrote: »

Up 7.1% this morning. Lovely.

Nice call, couldn't free up money in time after seeing your post oh well.

pocketdooz

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2010)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 37.50 - up 3.6% to 38.85

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17 - up 5.1% to 1.23

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12 - down 0.3% to 17.07

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52 - up 6.0% to 4.79

5. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35 - up 18.0% to 9.85

6. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67 - up 4.5% to 29.97

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 22.02 - up 27.2% to 28.02

8. Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) - 4.19 - up 8.3% to 4.54

9. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71 - down 0.8% to 27.50

10. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66 - down 0.5% to 5.63

Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2010 to March 3rd 2010 was 7.6%

Compares to an increase of 0.3% for the DJIA and a 0.8% drop for the S&P

pog it

Out of curiousity pocket.. what is your estimated return for year end?
Also. Well done, nice feat in current climate.

another world

Pocket, one other question! Are you aiming for short term profit or long term?

pocketdooz

pog it wrote: »

Out of curiousity pocket.. what is your estimated return for year end?
Also. Well done, nice feat in current climate.

Thanks - I am looking to beat the market.

It's impossible to put an estimated return figure on it as it depends heavily how the individual stock markets perform this year which is something I would never try to do.

The stocks I picked are ones who's multiples I felt were undeservedly lower than their competitors and therefore should trade up more than the market.

.

pocketdooz

another world wrote: »

Pocket, one other question! Are you aiming for short term profit or long term?

Long Term, I want to retire young :P

pocketdooz

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2010)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 37.50 - up 7.5% to 40.32

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17 - up 7.4% to 1.26

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12 - up 1.9% to 17.45

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52 - up 7.3% to 4.85

5. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35 - up 28.1% to 10.70

6. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67 - up 9.8% to 31.49

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 22.02 - up 29.6% to 28.53

8. Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) - 4.19 - up 16.7% to 4.89

9. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71 - up 6.3% to 29.46

10. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66 - up 5.3% to 5.96

Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2010 to March 21st 2010 was 11.5%

Compares to an increase of 3.8% for the DJIA and 3.2% for the S&P.

--

Possible takeovers by Bollore of Aegis Group and LBO of BSkyB by Murdoch driving some price increases. LBTYA's acquisition of Unity in Germany driving that increase.

Long may it last.

BESman

When do you cash in? If my portfolio was up 11% I'd be very happy in my pants and would not be able to resist cashing in.

pocketdooz

BESman wrote: »

When do you cash in? If my portfolio was up 11% I'd be very happy in my pants and would not be able to resist cashing in.

I won't be cashing in any of these or any other stocks just because I have made money. I'll only cash in if I think they are overvalued vs. competitors or if a certain event I expect to happen has already happened or has already been priced in.

Selling something while it's going up in value and buying something while it's going down in value, just for the sake of it, is not good logic imo.

.

pocketdooz

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2010)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 37.50 - up 11.6% to 41.87

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17 - up 12.1% to 1.31

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12 - up 2.7% to 17.58

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52 - up 8.6% to 4.91

5. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35 - up 36.0% to 11.36

6. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67 - up 10.2% to 31.60

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 22.02 - up 34.0% to 29.50

8. Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) - 4.19 - up 24.0% to 5.20

9. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71 - up 22.0% to 33.82

10. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66 - up 10.2% to 6.24

Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2010 to April 14th 2010 was 16.9%

Compares to an increase of 6.2% for the DJIA and 6.3% for the S&P.

heno55

Nicely done

pocketdooz

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2010)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 37.50 - up 10.2% to 41.33

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17 - up 12.1% to 1.31

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12 - up 6.2% to 18.18

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52 - up 12.2% to 5.07

5. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35 - up 55.7% to 13.00

6. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67 - up 16.9% to 33.53

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 22.02 - up 26.5% to 27.85

8. Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) - 4.19 - up 26.0% to 5.28

9. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71 - up 36.3% to 37.77

10. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66 - up 11.9% to 6.34

Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2010 to April 30th 2010 was 21%

Compares to an increase of 6.2% for the DJIA and 5.5% for the S&P.


.

thomasm

Hi Pocket, Great picks and fair play for putting them out there. If you had to pick 3 of these to buy again at this stage of the year which ones would go for. I trying to find out which ones you would be more optimistic about going forward.

pocketdooz

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2010 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2010)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 37.50 - up 7.1% to 40.16

2. Aegis Group (AGS) - 1.17 - up 0.3% to 1.17

3. Virgin Media (VMED) - 17.12 - down 5.0% to 16.26

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 4.52 - down 4.2% to 4.33

5. MDC Partners (MDCA) - 8.35 - up 46.0% to 12.19

6. Publicis Groupe (PUB) - 28.67 - up 17.0% to 33.56

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 22.02 - up 15.5% to 25.43

8. Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) - 4.19 - up 15.9% to 4.86

9. Marriott International (MAR) - 27.71 - up 21.5% to 33.68

10. British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) - 5.66 - up 2.4% to 5.80

Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2010 to May 27th 2010 was 13.1%

Compares to a drop of 2.2% for the DJIA and a drop of 3.3% for the S&P.