Gold Cup without the big 2

Colonel Sanders

Has anyone got a strong opinion on this market? Pointless backing a horse each way against the big 2 IMO, throwing the win part away. This market is far more interesting

Imperial Commander looks the obvious one alright but predictably enough is favourite in the market. The problem for him (and any other horse) is that if they are ridden to try beat the big 2 then they could easily fade and finish well beaten. If he's ridden for 3rd place he has a huge chance of finishing there

If Cooldine was back to his best he'd be a great each way bet at 5/1 (had been 6s with William Hill). His Lexus run was puzzling though. Willie was talking on ATR the day before and didn't sound confident at all yet he was very well backed but pulled up. Fair enough his horses are under a bit of a cloud but you can't help wondering did the RSA last year leave its mark

Apart from those 2 the only others who even merited a 2nd glance were Carruthers & Albertas Run (remembering that finishing in the first 5 may well be enough to collect on an each way bet)

Rio 2016

I would have fancied Caruthers for a big showing but as you say there is a strong likelyhood that he will end up taking on the big two.

However he may be worth a few quid at good odds, provided he sat off Denman at the crucial stages, just like Neptune Collonges did in 08

Morgans

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Has anyone got a strong opinion on this market? Pointless backing a horse each way against the big 2 IMO, throwing the win part away. This market is far more interesting

Imperial Commander looks the obvious one alright but predictably enough is favourite in the market. The problem for him (and any other horse) is that if they are ridden to try beat the big 2 then they could easily fade and finish well beaten. If he's ridden for 3rd place he has a huge chance of finishing there

If Cooldine was back to his best he'd be a great each way bet at 5/1 (had been 6s with William Hill). His Lexus run was puzzling though. Willie was talking on ATR the day before and didn't sound confident at all yet he was very well backed but pulled up. Fair enough his horses are under a bit of a cloud but you can't help wondering did the RSA last year leave its mark

Apart from those 2 the only others who even merited a 2nd glance were Carruthers & Albertas Run (remembering that finishing in the first 5 may well be enough to collect on an each way bet)

Its not really appealing to me, but I dont think, 2 months away from the race, that betting ew in the regular market is pointless. Now, it everything does go to Paul Nicholls's plan, you are playing for one place.

Cooldine is 20/1 in the main market, meaning should he place you are effectively getting a 4/1 win bet. 2 months away, you also have the chance of one or both of the main one's not turning up. Even if one missed out, it will have a big effect on your bet, but little maybe none on the betting without market.

I wouldnt be looking to Cooldine to finish third. Very little positives to take since Cheltenham last year. I think for a value option to beat Imperial Commander in the race, I would like maybe Money Trix. I dont think there will be too many in contention over the final mile and he might plug on through the exhausted front-runners

Juwwi

Morgans wrote: »

I wouldnt be looking to Cooldine to finish third. Very little positives to take since Cheltenham last year. I think for a value option to beat Imperial Commander in the race, I would like maybe Money Trix. I dont think there will be too many in contention over the final mile and he might plug on through the exhausted front-runners

Was thinking the same about money trix.

the owner of my will was on ATR the other week and said that my will
is 100% going in the gold cup at cheltenham.
hes 40/1 might be a good each way bet?


(he was 5th last year at 100/1)

there might not even be too many starters come the race

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

Cooldine is 20/1 in the main market, meaning should he place you are effectively getting a 4/1 win bet.

100% wrong. Colonel Sanders has the right idea as regards the gold cup, much more interesting Market. How gutting would it be to back Cooldine at 20/1 and beat Denman but finish second to Kauto. 20/1 looks nice but to get the 2 big ones beating is being extremly fanciful to say the least.

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

100% wrong. Colonel Sanders has the right idea as regards the gold cup, much more interesting Market. How gutting would it be to back Cooldine at 20/1 and beat Denman but finish second to Kauto. 20/1 looks nice but to get the 2 big ones beating is being extremly fanciful to say the least.

<snip>

If Cooldine places at 20/1 you are on a 4/1 winner.

Backing him without and he wins you are on a 5/1 winner.

"How gutting would it be to back Cooldine at 20/1 and beat Denman but finish second to Kauto."

How gutting would it be to see him win and you lose out on a 20/1 for the sake of 1pt. Even if there was some merit to being greedy for the 1pt profit on the day, it makes no sense two months ahead of time. Imagine if Denman and Kauto were injured and Cooldine started 6/1 on the day. Imagine...

mdwexford

If you back him say 10ew at 20/1 and he places you are getting a 60 return on a 20 outlay so you are getting 2/1 really.

Id much rather the without the top 2 market as well if i was backing someone else.

Morgans

That is one not unreasonable way of looking at it alright. I always view ew as two bets one win bet and one place bet.

1pt win at 20/1 and 1pt place at 5/1.

You do still have the possibility of your horse winning, especially with two months in advance, I think an ante post bet to finish between 3rd and 5th in the Gold Cup is playing into the bookies hands.

corny

Morgans wrote: »

That is one not unreasonable way of looking at it alright. I always view ew as two bets one win bet and one place bet.

1pt win at 20/1 and 1pt place at 5/1.

You do still have the possibility of your horse winning, especially with two months in advance, I think an ante post bet to finish between 3rd and 5th in the Gold Cup is playing into the bookies hands.

:rolleyes:

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

If you back him say 10ew at 20/1 and he places you are getting a 60 return on a 20 outlay so you are getting 2/1 really.

Id much rather the without the top 2 market as well if i was backing someone else.

This was my thinking too. I personally think the probability of another horse other than the big two winning is very remote (even factoring in this is ante post land). Kauto won't run again before the festival and Denman will only run once more, in the Aon

I'd much rather 5/1 Cooldine w/o rather than ew with at 20s as I believe there is practically no chance of collecting on the win part

Morgans

corny wrote: »

:rolleyes:

I've just watched Pricewise's ante post preview where he goes for Imperial Commander each way http://www.racingpost.com/media/media_centre.sd?view=rp&media_id=13593

Doesnt mention Money Trix, goes for Denman but does give Mon Mome and Tricky Trickster at a shout for huge outsiders. He also mentions why he goes each way rather than betting without.

I've emailed him a rolleyes emoticon to point him out the error of his ways.

Morgans

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

This was my thinking too. I personally think the probability of another horse other than the big two winning is very remote (even factoring in this is ante post land). Kauto won't run again before the festival and Denman will only run once more, in the Aon

I'd much rather 5/1 Cooldine w/o rather than ew with at 20s as I believe there is practically no chance of collecting on the win part

I think that is fair enough. I dont like betting each way when I dont think the horse has a chance of winning. But i dont see the value in this bet so far in advance of the race, with ante post rules.

convert

Just a reminder to keep posts on topic and to refrain from insulting other users. If you have a problem with a post, please use the 'report post' function.

corny

Morgans wrote: »

I've just watched Pricewise's ante post preview where he goes for Imperial Commander each way http://www.racingpost.com/media/media_centre.sd?view=rp&media_id=13593

Doesnt mention Money Trix, goes for Denman but does give Mon Mome and Tricky Trickster at a shout for huge outsiders. He also mentions why he goes each way rather than betting without.

I've emailed him a rolleyes emoticon to point him out the error of his ways.

Good man.