Model Outlook Thread: January 2010

Deep Easterly

Just to keep the aul model watching for medium term forecasts separate from the main short term discussion threads and to prevent a clogging up

Haven't looked at the GFS but UKMO and ECM runs this morning keeping themselves very cold this morning. Indeed, ECM out the 240 shows little hope of any warmer weather even coming close to our shores:

216hr chart:


Bitter, bitter cold.

force eleven

ECM runs are very very good if you like cold weather. High pressure to the north,low pressure to the south and a direct stream of bitter cold easterly winds for most of the next 10 days over these islands. There will certainly be snow, but your guess is as good as mine as to how much and where it will fall.

Snow will be one of those nowcast events I think, even T+24 will be too far ahead to predict accurately on that front.

Deep Easterly

Certainly looks as if the cool snap will continue up to next weekend at least. ECM 12z has a raw easterly breeze over the country this weekend c/o a pressure build over southern Scandinavia:


Cloud amounts will vary with always the chance of light snow flurries in the east, but further west, very dry which I am sure will be welcomed by the many.

Scubadevils

Encouraging to see no end to the cold. The thing is with this weather, I do enjoy watching the odd flurry of snow and hoping a shower will land in my area but the real prize is obviously sustained snow fall, drifts etc... thats what I want out of these very rare scenarios.

I have read many a time here, on TWO and NW that the real key is to have decent cold locked in for a reasonable period and then await the big snow event, much like what England are now experiencing - which was only really picked up over the last few days from what I gather. Nothing to say something 'big' won't appear on the horizon for us soon! We have the cold...

nacho libre

Felixdhc wrote: »

Encouraging to see no end to the cold. The thing is with this weather, I do enjoy watching the odd flurry of snow and hoping a shower will land in my area but the real prize is obviously sustained snow fall, drifts etc... thats what I want out of these very rare scenarios.

I have read many a time here, on TWO and NW that the real key is to have decent cold locked in for a reasonable period and then await the big snow event, much like what England are now experiencing - which was only really picked up over the last few days from what I gather. Nothing to say something 'big' won't appear on the horizon for us soon! We have the cold...

i certainly hope so too.
as you say the longer it goes on the more likely there is to be another frontal situation at some stage. if there is it would be brilliant if the conditions finally were the right side of marginal resulting in widespread snowfall, due to an atlantic system stalling over us and the cold air finally winning out. the dream scenario would be the atlantic trying time and time again to win out but being defeated, resulting in a dumping of snow for many, as it was in those fabled winters of '63 and '47. obviously that's highly unlikely to happen though:(

whatever happens we are unlikely to see a winter set up like this being repeated for many years to come.

Rekop dog

Felixdhc wrote: »

Encouraging to see no end to the cold. The thing is with this weather, I do enjoy watching the odd flurry of snow and hoping a shower will land in my area but the real prize is obviously sustained snow fall, drifts etc... thats what I want out of these very rare scenarios.

I have read many a time here, on TWO and NW that the real key is to have decent cold locked in To a reasonable period and then await the big snow event, much like what England are now experiencing - which was only really picked up over the last few days from what I gather. Nothing to say something 'big' won't appear on the horizon for us soon! We have the cold...

.

Scubadevils

Rekop dog wrote: »

.

Yes thanks for that invaluable input, much clearer picture now as to what is happening...

Scubadevils

nacho libre wrote: »

i certainly hope so too.
as you say the longer it goes on the more likely there is to be another frontal situation at some stage. if there is it would be brilliant if the conditions finally were the right side of marginal resulting in widespread snowfall, due to an atlantic system stalling over us and the cold air finally winning out. the dream scenario would be the atlantic trying time and time again to win out but being defeated, resulting in a dumping of snow for many, as it was in those fabled winters of '63 and '47. obviously that's highly unlikely to happen though:(

whatever happens we are unlikely to see a winter set up like this being repeated for many years to come.

Yes that in itself makes it interesting. Still want my heavy snow though!!!

WolfeIRE

Guys,

I posted this in wrong blooming section.

Latest model readings for western seaboard system on Thursday

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63817294&postcount=1260

Deep Easterly

UKMO 00z run keeps the cool snap going with easterly winds setting in over the coming weekend. At 144hrs (early next week), this model continues to suggest a possible low pressure attack from the SW.:



If and how this effect us remains to be seen, but with milder air trying to sneak in from the SW it could be interesting...

Awaiting the 00z ECM run for confirmation/disproval of this prognosis.

Deep Easterly

ECM 00z run complete and is basically in line with UKMO about pressure lowering from the south next week.

At 168hrs:


A little bit slacker than the UKMO projection but the trend is the same. At this early stage, there is increasing chance of frontal activity near the south coast during mid week next week. Between now and the uncertain then, always the risk of a shower or 10 near the south and east coasts at times.

Mothman

nacho libre wrote: »

whatever happens we are unlikely to see a winter set up like this being repeated for many years to come.

This is what some of us said about the the summer of 2007...;)

Snowaddict

Overnight Guidance continues to show a continuation of Bitterly cold conditions persisting for another 5 Days. Beyond Day 6, there are some tentative signs of a breakdown in the pattern at the moment but that's very uncertain at this stage.

ECMWF 00Z

Overnight, ECMWF has held firm regarding the transition to an Easterly flow over the coming days. Despite pressure rising, with a deep cold being advected Westward over the Irish Sea, it is modelling quite a bit of snowfall potential into Eastern areas in an increasingly due Easterly flow. Again, 850mb temperatures are being modelled as -10 to -11 through Saturday, persisting at values of -8 to -9 even into next Monday.

Thursday

Tomorrow, Thursday will see a slacker Northerly airflow covering the country, with a blocking High situated in the Northern Mid Atlantic. During the day, a shallow feature will progress southwards, near to Atlantic coastal districts. There is the risk of sleet and snowfall from this, however ECMWF continues to not model much inland penetration of shower activity - although this is definitely something to watch closely.

It will remain extremely cold, with 850mb temperatures of -8 across the country:



Friday

Friday will again remain bitterly cold, with an increasing Easterly flow as the day goes on, with pressure building firmly over Scandinavia. The flow may be slightly Northeasterly at first, but will continue to back Easterly as it develops. There will be a significant wind chill factor, especially later in the day. 850mb temperatures will begin to decrease even further, approaching value of -9 later in the day. A severe and penetrating frost away from exposed Eastern areas:



Saturday

At the moment, ECMWF 00Z is holding firm on a very potent firm on a very potent Easterly flow during Saturday, with 850mb temperautres approaching -11. It would feel exceptionally cold in this rather strong Easterly airflow, with an increasing risk of snow showers in Eastern and Southeastern areas later in the day:



Sunday

The latest indications suggest that this Easterly flow will continue into Sunday, with an increasing risk of snow showers developing in Eastern areas.





Summary

Remaining very to bitterly cold at times over the coming 5 Days. A further risk of snowfall, potentially in Western areas later tomorrow. This risk then transfers to Eastern and Southeastern areas, as the airflow turns increasingly into the East. Saturday may well see the coldest 850mb temperatures of the period so far, approaching -10 to -11, with an increasing risk of associated snow flurries & snow showers. Any breakdown being modelled is currently beyond Day 5.

SA

nacho libre

Mothman wrote: »

This is what some of us said about the the summer of 2007...;)

well, it's always more likely to happen with wet weather. i certainly would love it if the winters to come had the same pattern as we have now- albeit with more widespread snowfall!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.mrf.gif
NAO is negative as far as the models predict!!

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

whatever happens we are unlikely to see a winter set up like this being repeated for many years to come.

U big scrooge!
Who knows what the future holds for us.

WolfeIRE

Charts for tomorrow's atlantic system

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Charts for tomorrow's atlantic system

looks good for places 40 -50 miles inland from the west coast- that's if the precipitation makes it that far. also hopefully with the mixing of different air it will lead to heavier precipitation in the form of snow for some!

WolfeIRE

12oz UKMO brings that front closer to the west coast tomorrow. Maybe SA would be better able to explain what that it is likely to result in

nacho libre

sa will know more, but i think with the lp coming closer the greater the chance of maritime air spoiling things at lower levels- even further inland. if this was in February there would be a greater chance of conditions being the right side of marginal due to colder sea temperatures. definitely high ground, should see snow tomorrow, and hopefully places further inland at lower levels will, but those at lower levels on the west coast, like i'mbacklater, will need to go up croagh patrick if he wants to see snow.

nacho libre

and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, i hope to god before this cold ends one of these situations goes right for all of us who want to see fairly widespread heavy snowfall

WolfeIRE

anyone know which Lough Derg Met Eireann mentions on its inland lakes section. Is it Donegal or the Clare one? All indicating risk of sleet or snow tomorrow.

Forecast For Lough Derg until nightfall today Wind : North force 3 to 5. Weather : Dry. Mostly sunny. Visibility : Good. Winds Overnight : Light north to northwest. Outlook for tomorrow : Mostly light northwest or variable winds. Cold - and probably cloudier, with the risk of some sleet or snow.

Forecast For Lough Ree until nightfall today Wind : North force 3 to 5. Weather : Dry. Mostly sunny. Visibility : Good. Winds Overnight : Light north to northwest. Outlook for tomorrow : Mostly light northwest or variable winds. Cold - and probably cloudier, with the risk of some sleet or snow.

Forecast For Lough Corrib and Lough Mask until nightfall today Wind : North force 3 to 5. Weather : Sunny spells. Slight chance of a passing wintry shower. Visibility : Mostly good. Winds Overnight : Light north to northwest. Outlook for tomorrow : Mostly light northwest or variable winds. Cold and cloudier, probably with some rain, sleet or snow at times.

Forecast For Lough Key and Lough Allen until nightfall today Wind : North force 3 to 5. Weather : Dry. Mostly sunny. Visibility : Good. Winds Overnight : Light north to northwest. Outlook for tomorrow : Mostly light northwest or variable winds. Cold - and probably cloudier, with the risk of some sleet or snow.

WolfeIRE

upgrade for tomorrow

3.30pm gfs run
MIDNIGHT




thursday 6am



thursday MIDDAY




THURSDAY 6PM

Robxxx7

looks like a strong chance of snow through the Midlands and a minor chance of either sleet/snow here on the coast in Kerry

maquiladora

12Z GFS looks good for fairly widespread snow at times this weekend.

WolfeIRE

They are incredible Maq , if they come true. Widespread snow on Sunday in particular.

maquiladora

How is 12Z UKMO looking? Meteociel is a nightmare to navigate, keeps timing out.

WolfeIRE

For the first time since Saturday the UKMO is predicting precip inland tomorrow


Upper temps are marginal though for snow near the coast.

nacho libre

great stuff!

please keep those kind of charts coming lads:)

come on the snow!!:D:D

dloob

WolfeIRE wrote: »

They are incredible Maq , if they come true. Widespread snow on Sunday in particular.

Sky News weather at lunch time had widespread snow for sunday.

Scubadevils

Do we not need -8 uppers for snow? Certainly looks slightly milder for a couple of days.

maquiladora

dloob wrote: »

Sky News weather at lunch time had widespread snow for sunday.

Good to see the GFS, BBC and Sky in agreement but Sunday is a long way off in terms of snowcasting....

WolfeIRE

Felixdhc wrote: »

Do we not need -8 uppers for snow? Certainly looks slightly milder for a couple of days.

As far as I know Felix, snow can fall when it is -2c at 850hpa. The 850 is regarded as about 1300 to 1500 metres. So, the lower it is the colder it is likely to be at the surface. I could have got that arseways but that is my understanding.

Timistry

Meh, not liking the charts for the west. 850 temps are too marginal and precip wont be intense enough to ensure snow at lower levels. We live in hope though. Sunday seems VERY interesting to say the least:D. Looks like our chance of some decent snow in the south. N, E, W have had theirs.... its our turn:p

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Good to see the GFS, BBC and Sky in agreement but Sunday is a long way off in terms of snowcasting....

it is a long time alright but even issuing a warning shows a fair amount of confidence in the uk. look very good for southern ireland and might just be the big event we all hoped for on a countrywide scale. also at least its not coming from the atlantic which can just as easly be a wintry mix.

munsterlegend

Timistry wrote: »

Meh, not liking the charts for the west. 850 temps are too marginal and precip wont be intense enough to ensure snow at lower levels. We live in hope though. Sunday seems VERY interesting to say the least:D. Looks like our chance of some decent snow in the south. N, E, W have had theirs.... its our turn:p

yeah it will be very marginal but will have a better idea tomorrow how far inland it will make it. if only sunday was tomorrow...!

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

it is a long time alright but even issuing a warning shows a fair amount of confidence in the uk. look very good for southern ireland and might just be the big event we all hoped for on a countrywide scale. also at least its not coming from the atlantic which can just as easly be a wintry mix.

There are hints that the cold spell may be coming to and end in the middle of next week so this could indeed be our last chance at a nationwide snow event, it'll be interesting but a bit too far away to get excited about.

12Z ECM will be very interesting....

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

There are hints that the cold spell may be coming to and end in the middle of next week so this could indeed be our last chance at a nationwide snow event, it'll be interesting but a bit too far away to get excited about.

12Z ECM will be very interesting....

uk met office outlook have it cold for another two weeks and even then they have low confidence in a change!

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

uk met office outlook have it cold for another two weeks and even then they have low confidence in a change!

Oh I know, its only hints that it might be coming to an end next week, it only take a few runs for those to vanish again. :pac:

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Oh I know, its only hints that it might be coming to an end next week, it only take a few runs for those to vanish again. :pac:

yeah i hope gfs is right about sunday though and wrong about mid week changes. i am getting a little tired of the crawling traffic though!

Scubadevils

Sunday night into Monday, pretty widespread but light precip?

dloob

maquiladora wrote: »

Oh I know, its only hints that it might be coming to an end next week, it only take a few runs for those to vanish again. :pac:

The Donegal postman says it will be cold for another two weeks at least.
The Foxes have come down from the hills and the blackbrids are nesting near the farms you see.

WolfeIRE

dloob wrote: »

The Donegal postman says it will be cold for another two weeks at least.
The Foxes have come down from the hills and the blackbrids are nesting near the farms you see.

he also reported that two hares were doing the siege of ennis in the barn, while a crow has built a nest in his hair (always a sure sign that the weather will be cold):P

Felix - yes that is light precip. Monday's chart is better though

maquiladora

Felixdhc wrote: »

Sunday night into Monday, pretty widespread but light precip?

GFS isnt good at nailing precip intensity, also, even if it remained light it looks like quite a long lasting period of precip so accumulations could build over time.

force eleven

maquiladora wrote: »

There are hints that the cold spell may be coming to and end in the middle of next week so this could indeed be our last chance at a nationwide snow event, it'll be interesting but a bit too far away to get excited about.

12Z ECM will be very interesting....

Well, for the mild weather to return, it will have to shift this really cold air. This sort of scenario rarely goes without a major battle somewhere between the mild and cold. Shades of 1947 in fact. Worth pointing out that 1947's winter didn't get going until the end of January....

Gonzo

also we have last 2 weeks of January, all of February and 1st week or 2 of March to play for. Could well be another cold snap or spell before winter is finished.

Deep Easterly

ECM 12z at 144hrs:



In line with this morning's UKMO, with low pressure attack from the SW. Significant wind chill despite a very slow rise in temps.

Snowaddict

The latest UKMO Fax Chart at T+72, shows an organised area of snowfall spreading Westwards from Central Britain, it also has a frontal system moving up from the Continent towards Southern England, which is expected to spread Westwards in the general Easterly flow. This is the current snow potential that is being discussed.

Renewed Snow Showers are almost a given with the setup being modelled - ''Deep cold pool over a body of open water''.. However, it is the more organised event that is still very uncertain.

ECMWF just about manages to avoid a breakdown in the Cold Spell, with continuous blocking and southerly tracking lows throughout. I have to check the 850mb temperatures in a while, however at T+144, the approach of that low is very favourable for sustaining cold. Notice the ''delfection'' in the angle of approach, as it comes up against a very cold block of air in situ over the UK & Ireland, with a slight easterly flow again at T+168.



SA

Those are warm fronts moving in from the continent-I don't like the idea of that
Look at the circulation origin thats throwing them up.
It's originally from the south jetstream and one of the lows that we would normally get thats currently are slamming into spain ,portugal and Italy.

That 528 dam line needs to be watched as they may drive it foward.
I'd also like to see even slightly sub 528 over Ireland

Anyhow shur we'll see thats a week away probably.

Deep Easterly

Both the UKMO and ECMWF runs keep the cold coming throughout their runs this morning, if somewhat less severe than in recent days. Both models continue to show a low pressure attack from the SW during the middle of next week, conflicting only in terms of strength:

UKMO 00z at 144hrs:


Bitter winds from the SE as low deepens to the SW. Temps will probably rise a little but wind chill will not make it feel any warmer, in fact, the contrary may well be the case.

ECMWF 00z 144hrs has the same theme, if a little less intense:


How near the frontal zone to the SW gets to our SW and S coast could well be the next big talking point next week; but between then and now, stay warm folks, and look after those are really becoming crippled by this ongoing cold the best ye can.

Prior to the above,if we in the short term end up looking south east for our weather,thats not initially as bad as it sounds given that the track is still over a now frozen UK and the track includes a frozen near continent.
Even Brittany is freezing with snow now.

Also I note that the M5 buoy is actually colder than M2 this morning and with a dp of -1.2c.