Cold Spell potential discussion, new year

Trogdor

Any discussion on the development of the cold spell towards the new year here:)

Looks like the East coast at least may have a chance of some beefy snow showers as we go into the now year and possibly other parts of the country, doesn't look like any let up from the cold conditions just yet!

lucernarian

All I shall say is, admire those charts while they're there:D

darkman2

ECM is coming out now. This is nice, cold and snowy esspecially in the East.




On to New Years Day (Disruption in the East)

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
Currently having a negative North Atlantic Oscillation

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html



Could even hold into mid january of course the reduction at the end of the chart could also mean its dying out! But the jet streams and weather patterns shift with the sun so I give it mid jan until a fundamental change comes!

Bog Butter

The Eagle mentioned that this could be a record breaking cold snap! Is snow on new years eve a definite?

darkman2

With daytime maxes like these it is certainly possible




18z is very cold indeed out to 144hrs.

Deep Easterly

Latest ECM 00z showing no end to the cold snap:

Cold ridging at144hrs:



Cold troughing at 240hrs:



:cool:

nacho libre

so in 5 or six days we could be crying, or delirious with excitement- as widespread and heavy snow pushes up from the south due to the cold air been well established ahead of it.

M.T. Cranium

I think it may stay colder than normal for most of January. There is retrogression underway and the Greenland block may fade briefly but then I see much higher pressures in western Siberia now heading west so perhaps a more potent easterly will develop at some point around mid-month.

Temperatures in early January could fall to even lower values if any significant snow cover develops Thursday-Friday.

darkman2

12z GFS and UKMO keep the cold going for the forseeable with snow from Thursday morning in the East, South and Northwest in particular. Getting colder and colder from the East.

darkman2

ECM is out to 168 tonight and it's a bit scary if you don't like cold weather

On Friday - Bitterly cold with snow showers effecting the East and SouthEast and Northwest




On Saturday even colder at the surface but a drier day. Ice and frost remaining.




On Sunday snow showers resume on the East coast as still colder air comes in from the near continent




On Monday snow showers in the East at first. More prolonged snow into the North. Viciously cold at this stage. Temperatures certainly not above freezing anywhere during the day.



And......on Tuesday.....the East in particular in trouble here




What an unbelievable set of charts:D Remember the elderly etc though:o Records are definately going to tumble on this evidence. This is 1947 or 63 style synoptics - it really is. This is serious stuff.

Villain

You know FI is starting to look serious I know we have cold lovers here but some of these charts will have serious effects on Health and Safety if they happen

darkman2

Towards the end of the weekend and into next week some pretty low daytime max temperaures forcast - the sea temperatures are not looking far from freezing either.



And snow especially in the East and South where real disruption can be caused.

Su Campu

Dare I say it we could be ringing in the new year with the development of a polar low?

The models are suggesting the right conditions late Thursday night into Friday north of Scotland -

-Baroclinic zone running north-south (depicted as an occlusion on today's UKMO +60 chart)
-H500 troughing and temperature of -41°C (12Z GFS)
-H850 temperatures of around -9°C

One to watch!

nacho libre

su campu in ramping mode shocker:eek:

Su Campu

nacho libre wrote: »

su campu in ramping mode shocker:eek:

Villain

We might not see a thaw in January, the cold could go on and on and on, the charts at the moment are stunning be dangerous

Bog Butter

Was there any mention, a months back, of this cold winter by the long range forecasters?

ninebeanrows

The charts would seem to indicate that we haven't seen the half of this cold spell yet with east winds setting up shop for some period of time with bitter temperatures.

We could be in the middle of one of the longest cold spells in decades. And it could potentially only be beginning.

kerry1960

Still snowing here ... some more piccys from the day ..







the remains of the snowman created last Tuesday the 22nd .

Bog Butter

Excellent. My SLR is banjacksed at the mo but I think will have to sort that one out. I've missed plenty of nice shots already.

peasant

Weathercheck wrote: »

The charts would seem to indicate that we haven't seen the half of this cold spell yet with east winds setting up shop for some period of time with bitter temperatures.

We could be in the middle of one of the longest cold spells in decades. And it could potentially only be beginning.

indeed

Mon 4 Jan
Morning -6 °c
Afternoon -2 °c
Evening -7 °c

according to metcheck ... more burst pipes :eek:

K-9

kerry1960 wrote: »

Still snowing here ... some more piccys from the day ..







the remains of the snowman created last Tuesday the 22nd .

Damn, I nearly had a coronary there. Thought I seen an Arctic Fox!

Calibos

K-9 wrote: »

Damn, I nearly had a coronary there. Thought I seen an Arctic Fox!

Me too. Nothing to do with the spitz though. I thought I was seeing the finest snowman I have ever witnessed....until I clicked on the thumbnail:D

darkman2

kerry1960 wrote: »

Nice wolf.

K-9

darkman2 wrote: »

Nice wolf.

Ah, your taking the p*ss now! :P

My dream is to see an Arctic Fox!

Redsunset

I'll post this in here too as its more suited to this thread.
Mods remove from other thread if you wish as i was answering a question from that thread on it.


Hey WolfeIRE,looking into that low developing you pointed out earlier.


first of all click on scandinavia to get a better view of it on sat 24.




Looks better swirling.










now this fax shows it up lovely.The 992 low soon detaches from the 980 low and begins to sink south(shown in next fax)









Moving ahead to NEW YEARS DAY she sits to the north east of scotland.






Now i'll only go that far with the fax track on it because it will change somewhat.
However it's not the polar low that forms out of the blue and only lasts 12 to 24 hrs.
its a polar low depression.
But you know about that already.

interesting though,worth keeping an eye on.




The ECM has it in its sights too seen here on this 850mb temps chart,notice the warmer core north east of scotland,that her centre.







Here's a pdf of the wonderful polar low we so crave that i have posted before,
http://www.geo-web.org.uk/PolarLow.pdf

force eleven

This has a January 87' feel to it, for tomorrow onward. But that only lasted a few days - this spell - could - and I use that word advisedly - last weeks

nacho libre

so it seems the low next week could travel further north than first anticipitated. with all the conditions in place if this system somehow manages to modify the polar aistream i'm going to snap:P

metrovelvet

How panicked should we get? I have been housebound for a week due to the estate covered in ice. Last night a bunch of us went out with salt,sand,and ashes from the fire to clear the road so the oil truck could get to refill tanks. The shops have run out of salt. How will the upcoming weeks affect roads and supplies getting to shops, as in food and fuel? Is this a real potential crisis? The weather forums are bring out the henny penny in me. What should we be planning for?

Gonzo

Are the chances of snow showers off the Irish sea fading? looking at the charts it looks like the winds will turn northerly by Friday morning:(? leaving only a small window of opportunity for snow showers to form? I fear this could turn out to be another north-northwesterly event. Also the system on Sunday looks like its gonna track fairly far north dragging mild air across most of Ireland once again? Hope im wrong.

Musicman2000

Gonzo wrote: »

Are the chances of snow showers off the Irish sea fading? looking at the charts it looks like the winds will turn northerly by Friday morning:(? leaving only a small window of opportunity for snow showers to form? I fear this could turn out to be another north-northwesterly event. Also the system on Sunday looks like its gonna track fairly far north dragging mild air across most of Ireland once again? Hope im wrong.

Looking at the BBC Charts for sunday, its not going north it will cover the very far south of the country before pulling back south again

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Gonzo

im beginning to think once again we'll have no snow in leinster yet again:( none of the charts look promosing for here other than cold dry weather and hard frost. Galway, Mayo, Leitrim, Donegal and most of Nothern Ireland should see a hammering of snow over the next 4 days.

Elmo5

Had a look at the GFS, pure FI, but looks pretty snowy on Jan 4th/5th/6th? all over pasting?

Gonzo

the FI always looks great for Leinster but it always go's wrong, when the winds easterly thers a warm sector over us with wind and rain and just when it gets cold enough the winds swing to the north and were left in a dry frosty spell. It's a sad fact that this cold spell is nearly 2 weeks old and most of us in the Leinster hasnt seen a flake of snow yet this winter.

nacho libre

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Looking at the BBC Charts for sunday, its not going north it will cover the very far south of the country before pulling back south again

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

i wouldn't bet against the next system going further north than expected, just like this one did, and introduce enough maritime air to spoil things once again at lower levels
the atlantic twice has ruined things, and despite what people will say about having faux cold over us this time, it should not have happened on christmas day, due to the potent airmass we had over us at the time, yet the maritime air still had the final say resulting in rain and sleet for most of the country.

out of this current situation the west and midlands could have had a major snow fall in the last 12- 24 hours, but the damn dewpoints and temperature remained just a shade too high. the eagle obviously thought this was going to happen judging by last nights forecast but of course the mild air had other ideas:(

well, at least this time i will definitely not be getting my hopes up for heavy and widespread frontal snowfall

still on a more upbeat note some of us in the days ahead should get snow from the troughs that will come down from the north and north east.

Pangea

Are we looking at a big snow event for ulster over the weekend???

"Heavy snow showers likely over Ulster. Sunny spells and scattered snow showers possible over Connacht and Leinster and mainly dry over Munster. Daytime temperatures around zero. Friday night minima of zero to -6 degrees. Saturday & Sunday: Some sunny spells but scattered heavy snow showers likely….. all areas at risk but most especially Ulster and Leinster."

owenc

Pangea wrote: »

Are we looking at a big snow event for ulster over the weekend???

"Heavy snow showers likely over Ulster. Sunny spells and scattered snow showers possible over Connacht and Leinster and mainly dry over Munster. Daytime temperatures around zero. Friday night minima of zero to -6 degrees. Saturday & Sunday: Some sunny spells but scattered heavy snow showers likely….. all areas at risk but most especially Ulster and Leinster."

NO at this rate this front will still be here tomorrow morning at 10am instead of chilly sunshine!:mad:

200motels

Gonzo wrote: »

the FI always looks great for Leinster but it always go's wrong, when the winds easterly thers a warm sector over us with wind and rain and just when it gets cold enough the winds swing to the north and were left in a dry frosty spell. It's a sad fact that this cold spell is nearly 2 weeks old and most of us in the Leinster hasnt seen a flake of snow yet this winter.

We're the same here in Waterford, not a flake.

maquiladora

I've only just have a chance to catch up and look at the models, its amazing to see the cold conditions with snow potential lasting right into FI in all the major models with no real breakdown in sight at all.


Surely with the cold weather continuing for what looks like at least another week, the chances of something cropping up which gives us a proper widespread snow event must be getting higher?

Pangea

Heavy snow warning for NI for Jan 1st 2010
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Pangea

Hows things for the future, whats the charts like and is there any major snow event on the way, things are quiet on that front?

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Hows things for the future, whats the charts like and is there any major snow event on the way, things are quiet on that front?

mike65 could get his wish. so this puts into perspective the talk of this being on a par with the fabled winters of the past

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

mike65 could get his wish. so this puts into perspective the talk of this bring on a par with the fabled winters of the past

What is mike65 hoping for?
A snowfest or a rainy day
Is that chart good or bad nacho?

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

What is mike65 hoping for?
A snowfest or a rainy day
Is that chart good or bad nacho?

he hates cold weather and regularly looks for signs of mild weather in model outputs.

it's bad and the gfs is progging the same devlopment now. still many people visting this forum, especially the new comers over the coming days, will welcome milder weather after a few days of bitter cold;).

as i said if these charts verify it puts into perspective talk of the 2009/10 winter being like '62 and '47. in these winters it remained very cold, with barely any let up, for two-three months.

Deep Easterly

A tropical 2.6c here now and rising at an alarming rate. The milder temp is negated by the strength of the wind though and if felt really raw out there.

snaps

whats going on with the temps, rising here very fast. 3.1c here. Cant remember the last time it was over 3c? Whats happened to the colder air that was going to arrive? Looking at the rish weather network, nowhere in ireland in below 1c?

owenc

they are now in ni the cold air is coming behind this cloud it should arrive by 8am here on the north coast then extend south gradually dropping temps to around 1c then giving us cold nights and sub zero days like tonight -12c i think is possible!

Graces7

K-9 wrote: »

Damn, I nearly had a coronary there. Thought I seen an Arctic Fox!

Graces7

Looks likely indeed...Well, certainly up here!!!:D

Ulster
31 December 2009- updated at 06:00
Today

Bitterly cold, but brightening up with sunny spells. Scattered wintry showers, especially in coastal areas. Maximum afternoon temperatures 2 to 4 Celsius, with strong northeast winds at first, gradually easing.

Tonight

Bitterly cold and frosty, with further wintry showers of sleet and snow. Min 0 to minus 8 Celsius. Risk of ice and freezing fog.

Tomorrow

Bitterly cold tomorrow, New Year's Day, with frost, ice and any for clearing only slowly and lingering on in some sheltered places during the day. There will be some sunny spells, but wintry showers of sleet and snow also. Max. 0 to 3 C.

Pangea wrote: »

Are we looking at a big snow event for ulster over the weekend???

"Heavy snow showers likely over Ulster. Sunny spells and scattered snow showers possible over Connacht and Leinster and mainly dry over Munster. Daytime temperatures around zero. Friday night minima of zero to -6 degrees. Saturday & Sunday: Some sunny spells but scattered heavy snow showers likely….. all areas at risk but most especially Ulster and Leinster."

maquiladora

Met Eireann outlook :

Bitterly cold weather will continue well into the New year, probably at least up until Saturday 9th January.

:pac: