champion hurdle winner 2010.

sting60

medermit,medermit,medermit,medermit @33/1.anybody who has watched my space knows i have given this horse a long time ago.Alan King thinks this could be anything.only btn a neck by go native last year and was not ready will be 6 next year and wants good ground.I love 5/1 go native backed him last year with above,4/1 zaynar is a hugh danger.I Am not a fan of JPs horse Binocular but, and there is a but he could be a danger.people in the know say he still has a big chance?????

finbarrk

Fair enough if you fancy him. He wouldn't be jumping out of my page though.

prettyboy81

Go Native does it again for me yesterday ......Roll on March & the Million Pound Plus Champion Hurdle for him!

Diggy78

Is Merdermit not going novice chasing anymore then? I thought that was the plan after the Boylesport. Anyway, personally I'd like to have either of Go Native or Khyber Kim. Am gonna completely rule out any of the horses who contested the race last year, a decision that could come back to bite me but last years novices look way better. Would be nice to see Zaynar put into a proper race against a proper horse though, are they aiming at the world hurdle or what? I cant see why he wouldn't have gone for the Boylesport if they were that confident about him. Why run in an egg and spoon race over 2m 4f later on the card?

Morgans

It was hardly an egg and spoon race that Zaynar won. If I remember correctly, it was a grade 2. (relkeel hurdle)

Also giving weight to Karabak as a 4yo is no mean feat. I didn't think he was that impressive last time out and would have a few ahead of him myself in the champion market, but I can see the benefit of taking the easier route to the champion hurdle with him (smaller fields slower pace) given his inexperience. Aside from having 5 runs over hurdles, I think it was only 3 runs on the flat. He is still learning and remains to be seen if he is going to be good enough.

I personally dont believe that King thinks Medermit is a flying machine who will mop up the division when he is right. He was a little unlucky in the Supreme last year, and the stable is out of form at the moment, but he looks to have a place chance at best. If all things fell his way, he wouldnt be a hugely surprising winner in an open race, but his price reflects his chance.

masterK

My immediate thoughts after seeing Medermit last march was chaser in the making or a stayer over hurdles so I really can't see the champion as being realistic

prettyboy81

Was at Leopardstown yesterday & when the meeting was called off, I bumped into Choc Thornton, as he was leaving the ground....asked him about Medermit, he said he be surprised if he lines up in the Champion Hurdle but no decision on what route the horse is going in.....

Diggy78

Morgans wrote: »

It was hardly an egg and spoon race that Zaynar won. If I remember correctly, it was a grade 2. (relkeel hurdle)

Also giving weight to Karabak as a 4yo is no mean feat. I didn't think he was that impressive last time out and would have a few ahead of him myself in the champion market, but I can see the benefit of taking the easier route to the champion hurdle with him (smaller fields slower pace) given his inexperience. Aside from having 5 runs over hurdles, I think it was only 3 runs on the flat. He is still learning and remains to be seen if he is going to be good enough.

I personally dont believe that King thinks Medermit is a flying machine who will mop up the division when he is right. He was a little unlucky in the Supreme last year, and the stable is out of form at the moment, but he looks to have a place chance at best. If all things fell his way, he wouldnt be a hugely surprising winner in an open race, but his price reflects his chance.

You make some good points, I do tend to exagerrate a little. Obviously wasn't an egg and spoon race, but I think we'd know more about the horse if he wasn't trained by someone with other contenders. I take your point about building up experience but surely sooner or later Henderson is gonna have to race him against one of his other hopes before the Champion Hurdle.

Nulty

sting60 wrote: »

medermit,medermit,medermit,medermit @33/1.anybody who has watched my space knows i have given this horse a long time ago.Alan King thinks this could be anything.only btn a neck by go native last year and was not ready will be 6 next year and wants good ground.I love 5/1 go native backed him last year with above,4/1 zaynar is a hugh danger.I Am not a fan of JPs horse Binocular but, and there is a but he could be a danger.people in the know say he still has a big chance?????

I think you misspelled it....S-O-L-W-H-I-T.

There you go!

(Not that todays race was anything to go by but I'd be happy to have my money on him!)

Colonel Sanders

A few times I've been on the verge of adding sting to my ignore list

He's now on it

mr.jingle

Is the date of the first post correct: 26-12-09:eek::eek:!!! Where have you been the last 3 months Medermit has basically no chance of getting near any of the hurdlers around the top of the Champion Hurdle market he's been beaten comprehensively on more than one occasion this season and didn't King say he was going chasing after his last run?

prettyboy81

Mikeal D could be thrown into the mix now for this race, if you believe the vibes coming out of Mullins yard that he might delay sending him chasing till next season due to the fact his seasonal reappearance has been delayed due to injuries.....

mohican22

I couldnt be having Medermit no chance would leave it that.
Now for Zaynar the last day ran without the blinkers,which will be back on Geraghty got off him said he dossed around and had loads under him and he is proven coming up that hill.This years race will again be run at break neck speed which will suit Zaynar and Solwhit.
Im a huge fan of this primarily due to it enhancing my finances 4 r 5 times,this horses form is rock solid,beat last years winner Punjabi fair n square n Punchestwn,beaten Hurricane fly admittedly Hurricane wasnt on song,beat a former champion hurdle winner Sublimity last wk,my only worry wud b that i dont think it has run at Cheltenham.
I still think the horse has high cruising speed,grt jumper n loves a battle,hope Davy Russell rides it,thats my view.

mohican22

Cant be having him either as he reminds too much of Harchibald n my lifetime i have yet to see a horse win the champion hurdle on the bridle which is what Carberry will be trying to do,has the class and cruising speed but in the last 2 furlongs can see him folding like a pancake.

RichieLawlor

mohican22 wrote: »

Cant be having him either as he reminds too much of Harchibald n my lifetime i have yet to see a horse win the champion hurdle on the bridle which is what Carberry will be trying to do,has the class and cruising speed but in the last 2 furlongs can see him folding like a pancake.

You obviously didn't see last years supreme novice hurdle

careca

RichieLawlor wrote: »

You obviously didn't see last years supreme novice hurdle

Richie, is there any place you can rewatch these races. does RUK have an archive section like ATR online?


Fwiw, I think Go Native is the one in the CH. After his win in the Christmas Hurdle, Meade said he reminded him of Harchibald but that "Harchibald never had the speed of this fellow" :eek: I would have thought Harchi had plenty of speed so was surprised to hear this.

careca

Sorry ignore this, just signed up with RUK and have it.

mohican22

Go Native came there 2 out last year pulling a train,he ended up beating Medermit by a nk,after idling in front just like Harchibald.
Let me see wot else did he beat Sommersby whom Henrietta stated all last year dat chasing is his game and wot a fine chance he has in the Arkle.
Copper bleu say no more.
A Cousin Vinny who was off his feed which Willie mullins had stated and nowhere near his best da rest he beat have done nothing since plus Hurricane Fly didnt line up.
Richie by all means back Go Native but remember my words your doing ur money.
He'll travel like a dream and jump the 2nd last travelling but will not be able to win on the bridle,Carberry will ave to produce him 100yards from line,by all meansback him but you'll be sick afterwards.:)

prettyboy81

Sure who says P Carberry is going to be riding him come Cheltenhem? Davy Condon may keep the ride with Carberry saddling up the horse sticking with the routine of the last 2 Grade One races he won.....

Go Native is the horse to beat for CH on present form....

Morgans

mohican22 wrote: »

Go Native came there 2 out last year pulling a train,he ended up beating Medermit by a nk,after idling in front just like Harchibald.
Let me see wot else did he beat Sommersby whom Henrietta stated all last year dat chasing is his game and wot a fine chance he has in the Arkle.
Copper bleu say no more.
A Cousin Vinny who was off his feed which Willie mullins had stated and nowhere near his best da rest he beat have done nothing since plus Hurricane Fly didnt line up.
Richie by all means back Go Native but remember my words your doing ur money.
He'll travel like a dream and jump the 2nd last travelling but will not be able to win on the bridle,Carberry will ave to produce him 100yards from line,by all meansback him but you'll be sick afterwards.:)

Yeah. There is a lot of sense in what you are saying. I think you said earlier that Solwhit would be your selection, I could be wrong there. I'd be of the same view if I needed to pick a winner if my life depended on it now. Going by the Supreme form is one thing (Medermit wasnt all that far behind Khyber Kim and Celestial Halo last time out) but i wouldnt be so quick to dismiss his Fighting Fifth and Christmas HUrdle form where he had Solwhit a long way behind. Clearly the best horse in both those races, and value for a lot more than the finishing distance at Kempton. If he hadnt run at Cheltenham before, it would be a very serious doubt, but having won there, it is a question of timing his challenge rather than stamina for me. The quicker the ground the better.

Carberry if available will ride without a doubt. Was the first thing that Condon said to Channel 4 after he won at Kempton. The fact that Carberry travelled to Newcastle and to Kempton (when Leop was on) to saddle the horse was telling.

mohican22

The reason Carberry wasnt riding him is for the 2nd time he failed a racecourse alcohol breath test and got a suspension.
In the interview after the Xmas hurdle Condon said himself while still on horse with Carberry on his left that Carberry will be riding from now on.
Go Native form is nowhere near that of at least 4 r 5 other horses in the race,Solwhit,Zaynar,Punjabi n Khyber Kim.

Diggy78

mohican22 wrote: »

Go Native came there 2 out last year pulling a train,he ended up beating Medermit by a nk,after idling in front just like Harchibald.

I can see why comparisons are made between Go Native and Harchibald but to me they are completely different kettles of completely different fish. Harchibald would come there swinging and never go by a horse, or go by and be collared again in a couple of strides.

Go Native comes there swinging, but when asked he picks up and goes. He does idle in front, no doubt, but his acceleration is such that if he's within a length of the leaders after the last he'll have enough time to go a few lengths up, idle, nearly throw the race away and still hold on. Ok, maybe not that much time but I do think he's a bit special in that he can open up daylight in a matter of strides, he just has to be produced at the right time. You say he'll have to be produced 100 yards from the line, grand, if he's close enough when produced then that'll do for me.

As for who he beat, fair enough on last years Supreme Novice, but you cant really knock him this year. Last years supreme novice win looks scratchy in the form book, but given how the race was run, and what we know about the horse now, really he prob could have been held onto that day and would he have looked more impressive then?

Morgans

mohican22 wrote: »

Go Native form is nowhere near that of at least 4 r 5 other horses in the race,Solwhit,Zaynar,Punjabi n Khyber Kim.

On official figures, he has very little to find.

mohican22

On official ratings not much to find,his fighting fifth form much stronger than xmas hurdle,i've said enough bout him stated my case that he aint for me and if i will be having a bet in a very tough race to win it wont be him.

RichieLawlor

mohican22 wrote: »

Go Native form is nowhere near that of at least 4 r 5 other horses in the race,Solwhit,Zaynar,Punjabi n Khyber Kim.

Lol, your obv trolling. either that or your not watching much racing lately.

Zaynars only piece of form on offer is last years TH he has been running over 2m4f this year against trees or horses that need further. Either way he was entitled to beat them. But he will need to improve to be competitive in the CH.

Punjabi, while notouriouly in need of his first run has questions to answer. hopefully we will see him and medermit this weekend.

Solwhits form is better, but still He hasnt run round cheltenham and connections waited for Aintree last year. best of the rest imo.

While Go Native, last years Supreme Novice winner ( course form ) won the Fighting Fifth beating Solwhit, Binocular et al, while the race was a bit of a farce he showed he has the best turn of foot imo. Then he goes to the christmas hurdle, where in a race with a FAR stronger pace, and he travelled all over everything before hitting the front too soon and idling.

Basically Go Native has proved that however the race is run will not hinder him, has course form, and his form so far is tied in with most other contenders. So your dismissive statements about GN are a load of bull****.

Morgans

mohican22 wrote: »

On official ratings not much to find,his fighting fifth form much stronger than xmas hurdle,i've said enough bout him stated my case that he aint for me and if i will be having a bet in a very tough race to win it wont be him.

That's fair enough, and I think there will be plenty like you laying him. While I think its a mistake to think he is the same as Harchibald, its long long odds on that Go Native wont win the race.

mohican22

Well Richie you shall obviously be lumping on him,good luck.At 9/2 5/1 he is not a lay as i only lay short ones 2/1 or less.
I've stated my opinion and you have yours but he is not for me,too many negatives for me about the horse.
Good luck too all who back him,:)

redorblack

Very exciting Champion to look forward to. I would fancy Go Native to pounce off a strong paced race, but the way he ties up when hitting the front would be a little worry, I don't think hes a big of a head strung one as Harchi, he basically retired himself the last night in Dundalk by refusing to leave to parade ring, one in a million

supremenovice

I think the Champion is quite weak this year - no standout performer.
Which usually points to one thing - a proven, classy individual who improves every year....
PUNJABI

Colonel Sanders

I'm only one who takes notice of trends when they seem to be backed up by common sense (e.g. young horses having bad records in staying novice chases) but supreme winners have a woeful record in the following year's champion. No apparent reason why this would be the case

My two against the field are Solwhit & Go Native. The only thing separating them for me at the moment is that Go Native has a course win under his belt

redorblack

supremenovice wrote: »

I think the Champion is quite weak this year - no standout performer.
Which usually points to one thing - a proven, classy individual who improves every year....
PUNJABI

When I say exciting I mean its very open, yeah you couldnt write Punjabi off at all.

premierstone

Yeah I agree with supremenovice and redorblack while it may be a very open and exciting race it definitely does seem to be lacking in quality, FWIW Go Native will be my selection but then again I was always a sucker for Harchi and did my dough on him in Cheltenham more than once.

Whyno

premierstone wrote: »

Yeah I agree with supremenovice and redorblack while it may be a very open and exciting race it definitely does seem to be lacking in quality, FWIW Go Native will be my selection but then again I was always a sucker for Harchi and did my dough on him in Cheltenham more than once.

I`m in the same both there brother but i forgave the great harchi after his win in last years christmas hurdle when i pulled the trigger for the last time on him.:D

Stewie Griffin

It's ridiculous to totally dismiss GN's chances. People seem very determined to give him no credit for what he has won this year. If Binocular had won in Newcastle and at Kempton, the UK media would be doing handstands about him and he would probably be 6/4 for Cheltenham.

He has won in Cheltenham (and was pushed out to win it too i.e. not on the bridle), has won two Grade 1 races this season in completely different kinds of races and still people find fault. I reckon Condon went too early on him at Kempton because he idles in front.

I can see Carberry perched up on GN coming to the last and still not pulling the trigger until it's too late for another horse to come back at him. That will be the plan anyway, I'd imagine.

If people think he won't win, fine, but you can't completely dismiss him. He's in there with a really good chance.

Morgans

Watched the fighting fifth again, and it was after Condon pressurised him after the last that he went for 1 1/2l to 4l clear. Definitely just not a bridle horse. A horse that takes a bit of knowing and an unusual head carriage, but deserves his position in the champion hurdle market.

Juwwi

+1 on the above two posts..

If anything its Zaynar who should'nt be at the head of the market.
In fairness he can only beat whats in front of him but he has'nt beaten
alot this year when u compare his form to GN .

Also the bad record of 5-y-o in the CH seems to be forgoton because of
Katchits win.

Looking at the betting 12/1 Punjabi looks a great e/w bet for value
but I think 6/1 GN is a great bet.

One little thing in the back of my mind is Meades form at past cheltenham festivals.Fair enough he always gets a winner but not as many as if the festival was run in november.
He seems to have his horses geared up for a early season assault on all
the big prizes and come cheltenham does'nt do as well as he should.

Would anyone else think that could be a problem?

Diggy78

robbie1977 wrote: »

+1 on the above two posts..


One little thing in the back of my mind is Meades form at past cheltenham festivals.Fair enough he always gets a winner but not as many as if the festival was run in november.
He seems to have his horses geared up for a early season assault on all
the big prizes and come cheltenham does'nt do as well as he should.

Would anyone else think that could be a problem?

Fair question Robbie, have often ignored Meade's horses in the spring. Seems to be that he farms a lot of the early season races with horses that he doesn't believe will be good enough to win the big races later in the year. Wouldn't worry about this with GN, it's not like he'll have forgotten how to train horses, just setting different targets for when to peak particular horses. Could be very wrong as a only basing this on what I'd do, .

Juwwi

Its just looking back at his form his 1st race this year was on 4th oct 09.
its seems a bit early to start him out when cheltenham is over 5 months away from that race in oct.

Rio 2016

Paul Carberry will either be the coolest customer in town or the biggest clown in the racecourse and I would bet that we will see a repeat of Harchibald.

Just wonder if Carberry will wait to the very last moment before bringing him upsides whoever his pumping away in front

superfootyfan

Between Solowhit and Go Native for me although I have a few euro eachway on Voler La Vedette

Stewie Griffin

Yeah Rio, I reckon that's what Carberry will do, so that GN doesn't get the chance to relax in front. Being in front at the end is all that matters. If he only gets there 50 yards before the line, it's time enough.

Morgans is right though-he did pull clear under the whip in Newcastle and stayed on well enough in the Supreme last year. The idling effect was slightly exaggerated by Medermit's great finish too.

If Condon hadn't stopped for a cup of tea and a fag after clearing the last at Kempton and had actually ridden a finish, he would have won comfortably.

I just think there's lots to like about him and very little to dislike.

eire750

punjabi at the prices is still the best bet at this moment in time

Nulty

Solwhit, Go Native, Zaynar boxed tricast.

chinguetti

Watching the Irish Champion today and while Solwhit looked good, the ground wouldn't be as heavy in 50 days' time so the value is gone on him but Sublimity might be the one at 16's for a place. Likes the course and better ground.

Last years Champion Hurdle is looking a bit suspect. I wonder if Mr Fenton is feeling a bit tempted to change his plans?

corny

For me the more and more 2 mile races i see this season the more i'm convinced Go Native has them. Think Noel Meade's comments today were interesting when responding to Donnas Palm 4 length second he said "I'm very happy with that. We knew we weren't out of our depth and always felt he was in the mix with the best. It does make us very happy about the other fellow, though." I think he feels Go Native will run all over Solwhit! Solwhit might have won that a tad cosy though and might be capable of better but again for me 6/1 is cracking value on Go Native at this stage.

sting60

My info on friday night was he badly needed the race although he runs well fresh.Alan King said to my contact if he got within 3l of Punjabi it would be a terrific run considering the hold up with the weather.As Alan Kings yard is one of the highest above sea level in England he was very badly effected.After yesterdays race in Leopardstown I now see the novices of last year Medermit and GO Native fight out the finish providing the ground is good.

Morgans

Very good call with Medermit. Top class horse with a good chance come the festival. Its a shame though that your 500 ew bet on the horse for the Arkle has gone south. I know I wouldnt be able to lose a grand using incorrect stable information with such grace. I'd definitely be looking for questions to be answered. I hope you win it back and more in the champion.

BangBeater

Go Native is going for the WBX-backed £1million hurdling bonus if he wins the Champion Hurdle... To say that Meade won't have him primed for this race at such a time of the season is just insane... Obv with other years he does peak his horses before Xmas... but I really am a GN fan... And long may he be under rated to give us GN fans the best price!

Diggy78

corny wrote: »

For me the more and more 2 mile races i see this season the more i'm convinced Go Native has them. Think Noel Meade's comments today were interesting when responding to Donnas Palm 4 length second he said "I'm very happy with that. We knew we weren't out of our depth and always felt he was in the mix with the best. It does make us very happy about the other fellow, though." I think he feels Go Native will run all over Solwhit! Solwhit might have won that a tad cosy though and might be capable of better but again for me 6/1 is cracking value on Go Native at this stage.

Hadn't heard him say that, delighted he has though. Go (on the) Native.

Colonel Sanders

Solwhit won well and is surely a worthy favourite

However one or two things worry me (and he was my original tip back in November. Although the less said about the rest the better )

1. No course form, although I do feel he should act around there adn get up the hill seeing as he stays further than 2m
2. Davy Russell. I'm not a fan of his riding Cheltenham
3. The proximity of Donna's Palm and Sublimity, both of whom I fell have zero chance in March.

I'm still a Go Native fan but Solwhit has done nothing wrong apart from the questionable from of the fighting fifth

Colonel Sanders

RACE TRENDS:

• 22 of the last 26 winners won last time out
• 18 of the last 20 winners won a race previously that season
• 16 of the last 19 winners started in the first five of the betting
• 16 of the last 21 winners had winning form at Cheltenham
• 15 of the last 18 winners had previously been placed at the festival
• All 73 five year olds since 1985 were beaten, until 2008. Since then 4 of 6 placed were five year olds
• Only 3 winners older than eight since 1951
• The Irish have won 7 of the last 11 renewals
• No Northern winner for 29 years
• Nine novices have won the race, yet only three since 1956. Those three were all in the 1990's (Royal Gait, Make A Stand and Alderbrook) and all had raced on the flat
• No horse has won the Supreme Novices the year before and gone on to win the Champion since 1971

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