Kauto Star v Denman

cson

This is shaping up to be the biggest match up ever under rules. Kauto beating a decent field in the King George today by a distance and then Denman carrying a piano all the way around Newbury in the Hennessy. Hopefully Gold Cup day finds them both in fine fettle and raring to go. I'm stuck as to who I'll side with; those were two previous mentioned performances were probably the best that racing has seen in years if not ever. I've a soft spot for Kauto and I do think he's a classier type of animal than Denman but then who can argue with the way Denman demolishes fences? It's impossible to call in my opinion. The forecast last year paid out ~£16 and I think that'll be the play again this year!

Daragh101

cson wrote: »

This is shaping up to be the biggest match up ever under rules. Kauto beating a decent field in the King George today by a distance and then Denman carrying a piano all the way around Newbury in the Hennessy. Hopefully Gold Cup day finds them both in fine fettle and raring to go. I'm stuck as to who I'll side with; those were two previous mentioned performances were probably the best that racing has seen in years if not ever. I've a soft spot for Kauto and I do think he's a classier type of animal than Denman but then who can argue with the way Denman demolishes fences? It's impossible to call in my opinion. The forecast last year paid out ~£16 and I think that'll be the play again this year!

Kauto all day!

convert

Based on today's performance, I think Kauto looks like having the best chance. However, I have a really soft spot for Denman and I'd love to see him win.

cson

convert wrote: »

Based on today's performance, I think Kauto looks like having the best chance. However, I have a really soft spot for Denman and I'd love to see him win.

You see the thing is that the run today will be the freshest in the memories so Denman's extraordinary performance in the Hennessy won't be too quickly recalled. But when you think of the calibre of horses Denman beat in the handicap and the calibre of horses Kauto beat out the gate today then I do think there is nothing between them.

I remember John Francome I think mentioning during the last race that the top rated horse there was 40lbs inferior to KS. Which is incredible because that was a decent race!

Morgans

cson wrote: »

I remember John Francome I think mentioning during the last race that the top rated horse there was 40lbs inferior to KS. Which is incredible because that was a decent race!

A few things on that comment which i picked up on a) twas Simon Holt b) in IMO it was an idiotic comment playing to the supposed millions of first time race watchers on the TV. It doesnt matter how far ahead Kauto Star is of those horses, as none of them will ever be in the same race as Kauto Star. Of course, the same thing could be said that they are forty/fifty pounds beneath Denman, Master Minded, or Big Bucks. As if the horse racing novice would know what the relation between pounds and ability. Idiotic comment in keeping with C4 objective of dumbing down racing.

If it was a selling hurdle that was on next he would be approx 100lbs superior. Still doesnt mean anything.

Maybe its aimed at those who will suddenly forget about Denman's Hennessy now that its over a month ago.

I think Kauto Star would beat Denman well - not unlike last years Gold Cup to be honest. Its unfortunate that he wasnt at his best when they did meet the year before. Im hoping that the idea that some Denman fans have that Neptune Collonges and Denman took Kauto Star out of his comfort zone leading him to be below his best is still about in March.

convert

Probably should have phrased my post better - I've not forgotten Denman's performance in the Hennessy, which, I think, was very good. However, Kauto's performance today was fantastic, given the pace of the race and the way he decimated the field. Ok, it wasn't the strongest opposition he'll ever meet, but he still was very impressive.

mdwexford

Dying to see what mark they give him after today, 36 lengths is an insane winning distance in a King George.

Morgans

Couple of things about the race for me.

I think it will be a huge rating, something in excess of 190. My guess would be 191. However there are some issues.

Visually and every other which way amazing performance. Best of his King Georges, but I dont think Nacarat or Barber Shop are 3m horses in championship races and the way the race panned out, it exaggerated the winning distance. With Deep Purple pulling up, Imperial Commander effectively out of the race at the third fence, and Madison de Berlais not running to his best, he was entitled to beat the rest the way he did. It is only a tiny tiny quibble as I cant imagine any horse now, and very few in history staying with him up the straight.

Again, I will reiterate a point a made before. I cannot see Kauto Star ever being beaten for stamina. To finish with the energy that he did after the pace that was set (nacarat and the held up in touch Barber Shop barely able to raise a leg at the last fence) is astonishing.

Rio 2016

IMO the main form line lies with Barbour Shop and if you weigh up the circumstances of both todays race and the Hennessy there would appear to be nothing between the two.

However I believe that the advantage will lie with Denman come March for two reasons.

1. The trip and the course at Cheltenham will play to Denmans strenghts more than KS.

2. KS was at his absolute peek today, by Paul Nicholls admission both before and after the race, and it will be extremely difficult to have him at 100%, as opposed to 98 or 99% come Cheltenham.

Today was the most important day in the horses career and it was a pleasure to enjoy in full flow.

corny

Morgans wrote: »

Again, I will reiterate a point a made before. I cannot see Kauto Star ever being beaten for stamina. To finish with the energy that he did after the pace that was set (nacarat and the held up in touch Barber Shop barely able to raise a leg at the last fence) is astonishing.

If he's not beaten for stamina then he doesn't lose surely. Nothing in the 3M(the 2 milers would have their hands full) ranks has the pace to deal with him.

Before yesterday i was one of the 'Denman will break him' brigade but now i'm not so sure. That was a punishing pace they set and if KS is able to post a career best off it you'd be a fool to question his stamina.

Having said that you can be guaranteed Denman will not cry off after 2 miles in the Gold Cup setting a similar pace so at least KS will have company up the run in at Cheltenham. Who'll win? **** it Denman's still gonna break him.:D

Morgans

corny wrote: »

If he's not beaten for stamina then he doesn't lose surely. Nothing in the 3M(the 2 milers would have their hands full) ranks has the pace to deal with him.

Before yesterday i was one of the 'Denman will break him' brigade but now i'm not so sure. That was a punishing pace they set and if KS is able to post a career best off it you'd be a fool to question his stamina.

Having said that you can be guaranteed Denman will not cry off after 2 miles in the Gold Cup setting a similar pace so at least KS will have company up the run in at Cheltenham. Who'll win? **** it Denman's still gonna break him.:D

Yeah. I think the ideal situation would be for Denman to lead at a strong pace and for Kauto Star to be at his quarters at the turn in. May the best horse win.

Nulty

In a win only market the 3rd horse is likely to be 15/1. Am I wrong?

gscully

For me, the phrase 'horses for courses' comes to mind.

I know Kauto has won many times at Cheltenham, but when you see how he constantly thrashes horses at Kempton, usually jumping the last five or six lengths in front, and then compare it to Cheltenham where he doesn't get as far in front.

It's been mentioned on other threads that Cheltenham is set up for Denman because of it's undulations. Denman wouldn't live with Kauto Star around Kempton because of Kauto's superior cruising speed. However, Denman can maintain a higher speed around Cheltenham because he is built for the hills. To keep up with him, Kauto has to dig deeper than he ever would on a flat track, and that tires him more.

Let's just hope both are in perfect nick in March. It'll be some race!

Morgans

I think the horses for courses thing is an incorrect stick to beat Kauto Star with as well. Both horses are superb, clearly, and this isnt meaning to take away from Denman. Horses with huge strides and huge bodies are generally unsuited to undulating tracks like Cheltenham. Denman is a machine and it isnt really a factor, he has won several times at the course, (as has Kauto) BUT arguably Denman's two most impressive performances have been at Newbury where he is allowed to get into a rhythm and maintain it from fence to fence and ground everything else into submission. I think the idea that the Gold Cup is more suited to Denman than Kauto Star is the fact that it is over nearly 3f more, and that it has an uphill finish. Not necessarily the fact that its an undulating track. Generally, the bigger the horse, the flatter the track suits. Its one of the reasons why Aintree Grand National has always been on the minds of the owners.

I know that Nicholls was saying before Kauto's defeat in the Gold Cup that he felt Cheltenham was ideally suited to Kauto Star and for that reason he was slighly favouring him over DEnman. He was wrong that day.

And much of the reason why he is so superior at Kempton is through pure ability. Denman wouldnt be as suited to Kempton because of the tight turns (big horse) and the emphasis on speed. It is notable that in each of the King Georges Kauto races up the middle of the straight rather than down on the rail. It may in fact be he is slightly better suited going left-handed.

If both turn up in peak condition in March, it promises to be one of hte greatest races ever.

Rickos

Morgans wrote: »

I think Kauto Star would beat Denman well - not unlike last years Gold Cup to be honest. Its unfortunate that he wasnt at his best when they did meet the year before. Im hoping that the idea that some Denman fans have that Neptune Collonges and Denman took Kauto Star out of his comfort zone leading him to be below his best is still about in March.

I agree with you when you state "I think Kauto Star would beat Denman well - not unlike last year's Gold Cup to be honest.

The only way I can see Denman beating Kauto Star is if the ground was a a bog or if Kauto Star falls - and there is no reason why KS is more likely to fall than Denman. Indeed, I think I read recently that Ruby reckos KS is the better jumper. Not just that, both Nicholls and Ruby think Kauto is the best horse. For me, it has the best form, and if the race is run at a relentless gallop, then that plays into Kauto's hands - just like it did on Boxing Day. While Denman wont get burned off like the others did, I really doubt he could live with Kauto Star coming into the home straight at Cheltenham.

If they both come to Cheltenham in great condition then I expect Kauto to win well.

I was lucky enough to be at kempton on boxing day and the sight of Kauto Star coming down the home straight unchallenged was a sight to behold. Also, people talk about 3m 2f being a bit far for KS. Well, while accepting that Kempton isn't the hardest track, Kauto Star could have done another circuit. There was barely any sweat on it after the race. Looked fesh as a daisy in the parade ring.

So it has the class, jumping ability and stamina so, for me, it will win the Gold Cup all other things being equal.

Morgans

Bubbling up nicely with What A Friend winning the Lexus. Will be a cracker all being healthy.

Rickos

Morgans wrote: »

Bubbling up nicely with What A Friend winning the Lexus. Will be a cracker all being healthy.

I cannot wait. This season has been brilliant so far. I reckon this is something of a 'golden era' for jumps. Got the tickets for the Gold Cup - just hoping that the ground isn't bottomless and that the main protagonists arrive in great form so that we hear no excuses.

Colonel Sanders

Always been my opinion that Kauto was the better horse but the gold cup conditions suited Denman better. Now I'm not sure sure

Ollie Magern & Nacarat set an outrageous pace that had some good horse broken after 1.5m. The exceptions being Kauto & Barber shop who eventually got tired

To be able to put in spring heeled leaps at the final few fences after a race like that proves that either
1) Kauto has improved no end since being defeated by Denman
2) He had an off day in the 2008 Gold Cup but still managed to finish 2nd beating a good horse in Neptunes Collonges

How often has the racingpost comments in running mentioned the comments 'jumped superbly' & 'swept clear, magnificent'

I may be wrong but now I believe that the only way Denman can finish in front of Kauto is through an accident. Also factor in that it could easily be the case that Denman will have a new jockey on board Gold Cup day

mr.jingle

It's really turning into a proper classic and with What A Friend thrown in it looks like another 1-2-3 for the Nicholls camp. Kauto's performance the other day was his best ever and he seems to be getting better with age and i don't see Denman getting near him on decent ground but if it turns into a slog Denman would have a great chance imo. These Nicholl's horses are making a lot of decent horses look fairly average!

Colonel Sanders

Not sure if anyone fancies What A Friend for the Gold Cup but if so hold the bets:

From the Racingpost:

He was good today and he'll definitley have an entry [in the Gold Cup].

"I'm not sure if he'll run in the race this year with Denman and Kauto [Star], I'll have to talk to Ged [Mason] and Sir Alex [Ferguson, owners]. If you look at the Hennessy he's got a hell of a lot to make up."

He added: "I'd love to take him to Aintree and Punchestown for the Gold Cup. The Irish Hennessy is an option but I'd like to keep him fresh for the spring."

Tenth Planet

Definitely Kaoto Star for this one. Great race the other day.