Mild And Wet From Christmas Day.

200motels

According to Met Eireann the cold snap ends on Friday.



Outlook

This freezing spell will continue up to Christmas Day then it looks like turning considerably milder.

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Tuesday night will be calm and clear. Air temperatures will fall to between -1 and -5 degrees and some freezing fog patches may develop. Overall hazardous conditions for travelling countrywide. Wednesday: Daytime temperatures generally staying below freezing with frost and freezing fog persisting through the day and snow lying. Air temperatures Wednesday night may fall as low as -5 to -9 degrees. With calm conditions prevailing freezing fog is a continued hazard as well as widespread icing. Thursday (Christmas Eve): Calm, freezing conditions prevailing and possibly freezing fog persisting through the day. Friday (Christmas Day): Current indications are that the present Arctic airmass over Ireland will be replaced by a more normal Atlantic airmass during Christmas Day bringing a rapid thaw and some outbreaks of rain in a freshening southwesterly wind. Saturday (St Stephen's Day): Mostly likely to be mild and cloudy with some outbreaks of rain. And a possibility of heavy rain over parts of Munster and south Leinster.

Deep Easterly

Interesting that the Met are forecast very low temps on Wednesday night, down to -9c in places.

I suppose one advantage of the upcoming mild weather is that heating costs will be reduced for many! It will be interesting to see how the monthly mean temperature for the month will finish up also. At the moment, the month is running a little cooler than average, but can this mild spell return it to average before it closes? We'll see.

munsterlegend

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Interesting that the Met are forecast very low temps on Wednesday night, down to -9c in places.

I suppose one advantage of the upcoming mild weather is that heating costs will be reduced for many! It will be interesting to see how the monthly mean temperature for the month will finish up also. At the moment, the month is running a little cooler than average, but can this mild spell return it to average before it closes? We'll see.

looking at nw this morning - they seem a bit unsure about a return to midler weather. seems strange that meteireann we so uncertain yesterday and now so confident. any chance of the cold reloading next week?

Deep Easterly

munsterlegend wrote: »

looking at nw this morning - they seem a bit unsure about a return to midler weather. seems strange that meteireann we so uncertain yesterday and now so confident. any chance of the cold reloading next week?

Haven't looked at any of the models yet today ML, but going from yester's runs, there seems to be a lot of uncertainty regarding the long term (which, in itself, is not unusual). I guess we will just have to wait and see.

ninebeanrows

Looks like turning less cold but nowhere near mild and could well stay very cold.

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like turning less cold but nowhere near mild and could well stay very cold.

all in all a lot of uncertainty thought met eireaan seem fairly certain judging by this morning for xmas day.

nacho libre

it's disappointing to see no talk of frontal snow at all. it's just a pity, if it has to get relatively milder than of late, that the rain doesn't come during the nightime to increase the chance of snow in some areas. i just hope they're wrong anyway and that the cold air sends the mild air back into the atlantic with its tail between its legs.

ch750536

nacho libre wrote: »

it's disappointing to see no talk of frontal snow at all. it's just a pity, if it has to get relatively milder than of late, that the rain doesn't come during the nightime to increase the chance of snow in some areas. i just hope they're wrong anyway and that the cold air sends the mild air back into the atlantic with its tail between its legs.

Im hoping the cold air has fisticuffs with the moist air over the west coast meself.

Elmer Blooker

Yesterday Met Eireann showed a very strong and mild southerly airflow developing over Xmas/Stephen"s day on their week ahead forecast charts.
That southerly airflow has disappeared off today's charts, I think it will just become less cold for a time before colder air digs in again.

Graces7

Milder would be bliss... Lost touch with my feet days ago..Would be bliss indeed.:)

nacho libre

according to the radio forecast just now it will be "less cold" rather than notably milder weather coming through for Christmas day into st stephens day. it's disappointing that she didn't mention anything about the rain being preceded by sleet or snow in places given there was no talk of really milder weather.

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

according to the radio forecast just now it will be "less cold" rather than notably milder weather coming through for Christmas day into st stephens day. it's disappointing that she didn't mention anything about the rain being preceded by sleet or snow in places given there was no talk of really milder weather.

lot of chopping and changing. big change from this morning's forecast of very mild for st. stephen's day. just shows how things are so unpredictable as indicated on other forums.

Deep Easterly

munsterlegend wrote: »

lot of chopping and changing. big change from this morning's forecast of very mild for st. stephen's day. just shows how things are so unpredictable as indicated on other forums.

That is for sure, it just shows how even 72hrs out how models can really struggle. There does not seem to be any trend emerging at all, either for sustained cold or mildness. I suppose the next few days will see something happen either way.

It is notable however the distinct lack of mild days over the last month or so. In fact, the last really mild spell was during the intense rainfall during mid November. Having said that, it has not been overly cold either by Irish standards as a whole, but the frequency of mild southerlies and south westerlies has certainly decayed over the last few weeks.

Even the title of this thread would suggest that. Imagining opening a thread to ramp up mild, wet weather!

There is a high likelyhood that the fronts will turn to snow according to the BBC UKMO especially in the East.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63596395&postcount=76

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

That is for sure, it just shows how even 72hrs out how models can really struggle. There does not seem to be any trend emerging at all, either for sustained cold or mildness. I suppose the next few days will see something happen either way.

It is notable however the distinct lack of mild days over the last month or so. In fact, the last really mild spell was during the intense rainfall during mid November. Having said that, it has not been overly cold either by Irish standards as a whole, but the frequency of mild southerlies and south westerlies has certainly decayed over the last few weeks.

Even the title of this thread would suggest that. Imagining opening a thread to ramp up mild, wet weather!

as you mentioned earlier it'll be interesting to see what the monthly mean temperature ends up being this month. while it may not have been noticeably cold throughout this month. it has been quite sometime since we had temperatures struggling to make it up past 0 degrees during daylight hours in the lead up to christmas. also, you're right about the uncertainity by the models, so we could still see frontal snow yet around christmas day or we could be in double figures. i suppopse that's the appeal of this particular cold spell and cold weather in ireland. if we were getting above 4 inches of snow frequently, with freezing temperatures by day, the child-like enthusiasm might disappear fairly quickly.

paulhac

Can somebody ask that postman if there is still going to be a white Christmas!

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

as you mentioned earlier it'll be interesting to see what the monthly mean temperature ends up being this month. while it may not have been noticeably cold throughout this month. it has been quite sometime since we had temperatures struggling to make it up past 0 degrees during daylight hours in the lead up to christmas

Indeed Nacho. Our theoretical love of extreme cold would well be challenged if a severe and prolonged cold spell did take place in the future.

The mean temperature over the last 7 days has been notably low which will have a significant impact on the finishing monthly mean:

7 day mean chart for the period 14th to 20th December 09:



7 day anomaly chart for the period 14th to 20th December 09:


Source: http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

Central areas very cool for the time of year, with temp deviation down to -4c to -5c below the 61-90 norm in some central southern spots

munsterlegend

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a high likelyhood that the fronts will turn to snow according to the BBC UKMO especially in the East.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63596395&postcount=76

hopefully it will spread a bit further west and hit munster. will that air not be a lot milder though?

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

hopefully it will spread a bit further west and hit munster. will that air not be a lot milder though?

It's coming up from the south and bumping into the cold air bringing transitional snow before the southerlies take hold-thats what their graphics showed.
But it was right at the edge of their graphic so no more info on how short lived it will be if it happens at all.
Good to see they are thinking some though even if only for an hour or two,

howlinwolf

i personally think (ive got next to no knowledge) that the mild weather will sweep in and we might get some snow mostly in eastern areas but it will be very short lived as the mild weather will turn it back to rain. if you take met eireanns forecasts on board i think its all still very uncertain as they use ( curent indactions) and (probably)...but i think the mild weather will win out just not so sure what day exactly and how quickly it will sweep away the cold air ......hope im wrong as im lovin the cold snap ...very christmas like:)

howlinwolf

howlinwolf wrote: »

i personally think (ive got next to no knowledge) that the mild weather will sweep in and we might get some snow mostly in eastern areas but it will be very short lived as the mild weather will turn it back to rain. if you take met eireanns forecasts on board i think its all still very uncertain as they use ( curent indactions) and (probably)...but i think the mild weather will win out just not so sure what day exactly and how quickly it will sweep away the cold air ......hope im wrong as im lovin the cold snap ...very christmas like:)

You've got it about right I think.
The transitional snow will probably be on the hills only.
I'm expecting lashing rain here.
Atlantic polar maratime air with already marginal dewpoints versus a push from the south...
I know where my money would be on that and my money is on rain.

An established Easterly/North Easterly fighting with it is a different matter,much lower dew points.

Bring back the beasterly I say

pauldry

Im not so sure. I think there will be another cold spell after the xmas.

owenc

yes temps are forecast to drop here to -2c maxes from wednesday through to friday then on christmas day maxes upto 2c then upto 4c for about 2 days then back down to 1/2c so its no mild spell here... hopefully

mike65

Hmm the early GSF shows maxiumum of -1 on Jan 4th! :eek:

nacho libre

mike65 wrote: »

Hmm the early GSF shows maxiumum of -1 on Jan 4th! :eek:

i know your desperate for the cold to remain but please remember that's fi:p

Villain

I think the term "mild" won't be used again in 2009 Mike65 will love that.

FI is cooooooooooooooooooold but its the pub run be interesting to see how the models look tomorrow

Deep Easterly

Villain wrote: »

Ibut its the pub run

I have often heard the the 18z is dismissed because it is the "pub run". I just haven't a clue why it is called the pub run.

Could someone please explain what in the name of Christ that actually means???? :pac::pac::pac: