Ireland to pull out of the euro?

maxwell smart

I heard a rumour today, from a source that would have a bit of insider info, that by the end of 2010 Ireland will pull out of the Euro.....

Thoughts?

hinault

Nein!

Tricity Bendix

If Ireland left the Euro it would spook investors to an extent that we might never recover.

mike65

LOL! (not often I use that)

No chance, David McWilliams is spreading lies!

maxwell smart

So it's not worth putting 50euro on at 1000-1?

imme

Dúirt bean lion go n-dúirt bean leí
a rumour, eh?
*yawns*

Nodin

maxwell smart wrote: »

I heard a rumour today, from a source that would have a bit of insider info, that by the end of 2010 Ireland will pull out of the Euro.....

Thoughts?

You can be still drunk the next day from the night before.

meditraitor

The cost of reinstating the PUNT would be enough to stop this happining, whoever is whispering in your ear is having a laugh at your expense:o

nesf

maxwell smart wrote: »

So it's not worth putting 50euro on at 1000-1?

You'd have to offer me far better odds!

baalthor

Find out what currency they will pay out with, if your bet wins !

jhegarty

maxwell smart wrote: »

I heard a rumour today, a drunk guy in the pub, that by the end of 2010 Ireland will pull out of the Euro.....

Thoughts?

fyp

View

Someone better tell the guys at the Mint - it takes a fair amount of time to run off enough coins and bank notes for a state, not to mention plan the removal of the old notes/introduce the new ones etc. etc.

Changing the currency though isn't going to alter the math of the state's budgetary finances (it'll still look horrible) not to mention the post-housing bubble mess (NAMA won't go away).

Still, in the midst of a recession, why wouldn't we expose 40%+ of the state's exports to currency risk in order to keep our Eurosceptics happy?

SLUSK

I do not believe that Ireland wants to pull out of the Euro but it should be kicked out of the Euro and so should Greece, Spain, Portugal and other countries who can't manage their finances properly. Countries like this are a threat to the Euro.

ArmaniJeanss

maxwell smart wrote: »

So it's not worth putting 50euro on at 1000-1?

There is no bookmaker offering such a price, and even if there was they wouldn't be willing to run up a €50K liability on such a market (where the only money would be speculative fivers and insider info).

Nesf, 1000/1 would be massive value if it were offered and it would be greedy to look for more. 50/1-100/1 is probably a neutral price,( in other words theres a very remote 1%/2% chance of it happening).

Sand

Youd want to make your bet with a German betting shop, and youd need far, far, far better odds. A euro pullout would be time to get get your shotgun and head for the hills.

Cool Mo D

SLUSK wrote: »

I do not believe that Ireland wants to pull out of the Euro but it should be kicked out of the Euro and so should Greece, Spain, Portugal and other countries who can't manage their finances properly. Countries like this are a threat to the Euro.

Ireland can't be kicked out. There is no mechanism to do so. The ECB can't even stop non-eurozone countries using the euro as their currency, so how exactly could we be kicked out?

And there is a huge, practical issue that stops us leaving the Euro. Everyone knows that the first thing that would happen to the theoretical Punt Nua, is that it would be sharply devalued. Therefore, no-one will willingly give their euros over to be exchanged for soon-to-be-worthless Punt Nuas. Every citizen with liquid savings would move their money offshore so fast it would make your head spin, and the Irish banks would lose their deposit base instantly, leaving the state on the hook for 10s of billions. Nevermind the poor impression if would give to outside observers, and the fact that our debt would be in Euros, and we would have to pay it off with devalued currency.

If Ireland were ever to leave the Euro, it would have to be done when times are good, and the Punt could reasonably be expected to hold value against the Euro.

Flamed Diving

imme wrote: »

Dúirt bean lion go n-dúirt bean leí
a rumour, eh?
*yawns*

Not just a rumour. But a rumour from an inside source.

Solid Gold.

TheCandystripes

ireland prob should use the brit pound

Gurgle

Cool Mo D wrote: »

the first thing that would happen to the theoretical Punt Nua, is that it would be sharply devalued.

The second thing would be interest rates shooting back up to 10%-15%.
(Ah, remember the 80s)

The third thing would be a mass exodus of everybody with any skills or qualifications.
(Ah, remember the 80s)

Of course, the multinationals would be back to manufacturing here within a couple of years. We would have a semi-skilled semi-educated workforce paid in a currency thats barely worth the paper its printed on. We could compete with China again.
(Ah, remember the... never mind, you get it.)

sold

maxwell smart wrote: »

I heard a rumour today, from a source that would have a bit of insider info, that by the end of 2010 Ireland will pull out of the Euro.....

Thoughts?

Well as an Insider in the ECB I can debunk the rumor, There is not way Ireland will leave the EURO.

galwayrush

sold wrote: »

Well as an Insider in the ECB I can debunk the rumor, There is not way Ireland will leave the EURO.

Unless we want to go back to something akin to the stone age.:rolleyes:

ei.sdraob

TheCandystripes wrote: »

ireland prob should use the brit pound

like we used to? sure while we at at it ask the queen to take us back right

i better learn thatching :cool:

galwayrush wrote: »

Unless we want to go back to something akin to the stone age.:rolleyes:

actually theres one reason i would like to see euro being ditched

watching David Mc Williams watch in horror as "his idea" leads to the collapse of the country, but then again that might be too high a price to pay for showing what a fraud he is

Boston

I feel embarrassed now, I never thought he'd start this thread.

Note to self, don't troll people in real life.

3DataModem

If we left the Euro we wouldn't be going back to punt, we'd probably adopt the dollar or sterling (for stability and ease of transition). This was discussed in 2000 by economists and banks, and a contingency plan does exist somewhere in the bowels of BOI.

ei.sdraob

3DataModem wrote: »

If we left the Euro we wouldn't be going back to punt, we'd probably adopt the dollar or sterling (for stability and ease of transition). This was discussed in 2000 by economists and banks, and a contingency plan does exist somewhere in the bowels of BOI.

why?

the eurozone is our largest export destination

followed by US and then UK in third

talk about shooting oneself in foot

Boston

3DataModem wrote: »

If we left the Euro we wouldn't be going back to punt, we'd probably adopt the dollar or sterling (for stability and ease of transition). This was discussed in 2000 by economists and banks, and a contingency plan does exist somewhere in the bowels of BOI.

The Bank of Ireland? Don't you mean the Central bank? You just lost the right to comment on this thread.

stringbox

I thought the UK was where we exported to most.

Boston

We export the most to the euro zone.

PLIIM

ei.sdraob wrote: »

actually theres one reason i would like to see euro being ditched

watching David Mc Williams watch in horror as "his idea" leads to the collapse of the country, but then again that might be too high a price to pay for showing what a fraud he is

Any publicity is good publicity for that joke of a popstar economist.
Wouldnt surprise me if Max Clifford was is agent.

ei.sdraob

stringbox wrote: »

I thought the UK was where we exported to most.

nope

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/botmaintrpartners.htm

K-9

ei.sdraob wrote: »

nope

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/botmaintrpartners.htm

Think its mostly multinationals though, indigenous exports would be more the UK.

People too busy building houses for the last 5/6 years.

Flamed Diving

K-9 wrote: »

Think its mostly multinationals though, indigenous exports would be more the UK.

People too busy building houses for the last 5/6 years.

Translation:

I don't want to be wrong so I'm just going to make something up in order to shift the goalposts a bit, look I will just throw in a jibe about the overheated construction sector to deflect attention. La, la, la!

K-9

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Translation:

I don't want to be wrong so I'm just going to make something up in order to shift the goalposts a bit, look I will just throw in a jibe about the overheated construction sector to deflect attention. La, la, la!

Why do you think our own exporters are so exposed to sterling?

I thought it was relatively well known that are own indigenous exporters are still very reliant on Sterling whereas the multinationals are more diverse. Maybe not.

Here's a good piece on it:http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1018459.shtml

CamperMan

I still miss the Punt... bloody euros pushed the price of everything through the roof

Flamed Diving

K-9 wrote: »

Why do you think our own exporters are so exposed to sterling?

I thought it was relatively well known that are own indigenous exporters are still very reliant on Sterling whereas the multinationals are more diverse. Maybe not.

That might very well be the case, it's just it would be nice to see something backing it up, that's all.

K-9

Flamed Diving wrote: »

That might very well be the case, it's just it would be nice to see something backing it up, that's all.

Added above, we have problems being in the Euro, but they are largely of our own making, hence the reference to houses!

Flamed Diving

K-9 wrote: »

Added above, we have problems being in the Euro, but they are largely of our own making, hence the reference to houses!

Thanks. I did some rummaging myself, makes for interesting viewing:



Was 2000/01 the BSE crisis?

masteroftherealm

Why does eveyone assume that we are intrinsically llinked to the UK when it comes to the economy, we are more linked to the EU and the US than the UK and have been for a good number of years.

Flamed Diving

What we did before the Euro, written by the now Governor of the Central Bank.

http://homepage.eircom.net/~phonohan/BNL.pdf

Flamed Diving

Some contrast:





Note the tenfold difference in figures on the Y-axis.

K-9

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Thanks. I did some rummaging myself, makes for interesting viewing:



Was 2000/01 the BSE crisis?

Not great figures for the Euro area.

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Why does eveyone assume that we are intrinsically llinked to the UK when it comes to the economy, we are more linked to the EU and the US than the UK and have been for a good number of years.

The foreign multinationals are more linked to the US and the Euro, which begs the question, why haven't our own companies capitalised?

That should be the question asked, not Ireland pulling out of the Euro.

Flamed Diving

K-9 wrote: »

Not great figures for the Euro area.

Yes, yes, I see exactly what you mean by that.

masteroftherealm

Many Irish companies are exporting both goods and services to the US and Europe. I know this for fact.
Its not just the MNC's.

Flamed Diving

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Many Irish companies are exporting both goods and services to the US and Europe. I know this for fact.
Its not just the MNC's.

Many = ???%

masteroftherealm

Couldnt tell you a percentage, but in my industury anyway I know of at least 25/30% of companies I would have dealt with would have taken over 50% of their revenue from EU or US sources. Many hated dealing with the UK due to sterling.

K-9

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Many Irish companies are exporting both goods and services to the US and Europe. I know this for fact.
Its not just the MNC's.

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Couldnt tell you a percentage, but in my industury anyway I know of at least 25/30% of companies I would have dealt with would have taken over 50% of their revenue from EU or US sources. Many hated dealing with the UK due to sterling.

That's the example we should be following but the figures suggest we aren't doing enough of it.

masteroftherealm

I would agree, I would also think that a mix of revenue is very important, I have seen first hand that its a mistake to base a company in Ireland whos market is 100% abroad, I lost my job because of it.
I think 40-60% of revnue from EU/US sources is the best mix. We need a mix of local and international business in this country.

Flamed Diving

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Couldnt tell you a percentage, but in my industury anyway I know of at least 25/30% of companies I would have dealt with would have taken over 50% of their revenue from EU or US sources. Many hated dealing with the UK due to sterling.

I searched around, but could not find any data to use, however, there is an article on the website for the Irish Exporters Association which states:

Press Release

For Immediate Release

Tuesday 20th October 2009

Department of Foreign Affairs Has Key Role to Play in Increasing Exports

...This was the message delivered by Mr Liam Shanahan, President of the Irish Exporters Association, when he appeared recently at a meeting of the Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs...He said that although indigenous exports only accounted for some 12% of total exports, they accounted for some 50% of export related jobs.

http://www.irishexporters.ie/article_1182.shtml

I have no idea what his source is, although it is probably data collected by his association.

masteroftherealm

Yeah 12% is much lower than I would have though, biased experience I suppose.
That figure needs to be raised much higher, Irish Boutique/Niche businesses need to realise they can compete on an international scale as long as they have the quality of work.

K-9

Flamed Diving wrote: »

I searched around, but could not find any data to use, however, there is an article on the website for the Irish Exporters Association which states:



I have no idea what his source is, although it is probably data collected by his association.

Would be interesting to see the source. It's believable as agriculture is labour intensive and probably depends on the definition of export related.

Hotblack Desiato

TheCandystripes wrote: »

ireland prob should use the brit pound

And your local football team prob should be called Londonderry City :rolleyes:

Any suggestion that we leave the Euro is, of course, ludicrous and emanates from the usual anti-EU British gutter press, and the lunatic fringe like you-know-who.

If we adopted our own currency now, it wouldn't be a pound or punt, but a peso...