Cold Spell Discussion (17/12/09) (Cold, Ice and Snow now arriving)

ninebeanrows

Right here is a new one as things are now moving from the future to the present.

Radar - http://met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Satellite - http://www.sat24.com/region.aspx?type=last&time=200912171245&country=gb

I would expect temperature to begin to turn favourable for wintry precip in the east in the next hour or so and showers to be of snow from dusk.

Lets hope this is the one

maquiladora

Just to add, since this is a new thread that there is another radar here with actually shows the different precip type : rain/snow/sleet (until Monday)

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Very handy!

forkassed

Good consensus showing the cold hanging around till christmas day so the lucky few with Snow lying should have a White Xmas

WolfeIRE

Still only 2c in Ennis (at midday). Frost slow to clear in shaded areas. Sun is shining.

Hoping that predictions of snow in west munster over the weekend will bear fruit.

maquiladora

forkassed wrote: »

Good consensus showing the cold hanging around till christmas day so the lucky few with Snow lying should have a White Xmas
[/IMG]

Im not sure the Netweather ensembles are right for Dublin, if you look at the ensembles here the op run (green) is totally different : http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Wibbler

Weathercheck wrote: »

Right here is a new one as things are now moving from the future to the present.

I like the new thread title :-)

forkassed

maquiladora wrote: »

Im not sure the Netweather ensembles are right for Dublin, if you look at the ensembles here the op run (green) is totally different : http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

So it is.. pretty much the same out to the 25th though.

Can you tell me how navigate to that link you posted?

DOCARCH

Have had some rainy, haily, sleet showers here this morning - all clear now. More importantly. clearnce is bring lower dew points with it.

maquiladora

forkassed wrote: »

So it is.. pretty much the same out to the 25th though.

Can you tell me how navigate to that link you posted?

It's from Wetterzentrale, I just change the city name in the url to Dublin, can't remember where I bookmarked it from, might have been an old thread on here.

forkassed

maquiladora wrote: »

It's from Wetterzentrale, I just change the city name in the url to Dublin, can't remember where I bookmarked it from, might have been an old thread on here.

Cool, i can never find them on the wetterzentrale site with it being german and all, changing the name in the url works though-Cheers!

munsterlegend

British Met Office outlook - theres seems a lot of uncertainty for next week.
UK Outlook for Tuesday: 22 Dec 2009 to Thursday 31 Dec 2009:

It looks likely to be generally unsettled next week with a mixture of clear or brighter spells and showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow across most parts. Some heavier precipitation is likely but across southern areas the precipitation looks more likely to fall as rain or sleet. Cold, especially across northern areas with overnight frosts and icy surfaces in places. Windy at times too making it feel even colder. By next weekend it looks like the unsettled weather is set to continue but with the main sleet and snow risk continuing in the north. Temperatures may recover to near or above normal in parts of the south towards the end of the period but more wintry weather may continue in the north, although this aspect is uncertain.
Updated: 1200 on Thu 17 Dec 2009

eskimocat

Sligo town, bright and sunny, stuck indoors for another 30mins so don't know how cold it feels outside but temp on pharamacy sign around the 9 c mark. Was 10 c a while ago but does anyone know if these things are accurate?
Sky is mostly clear light blue.. odd fluffy white cloud (technical or what )

Mr.Boots

Bitter cold in aughrim co wicklow, raining at the moment.

whitemocha

love this thread have followed all the snow threads really enjoy them

keep up the good work and here is wishing for snow

yansnow

15-12-2009, 07:04 #276
yansnow
Registered User



Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 37
Adverts | Friends Yea it's look really good the further we go it gets colder and colder,as lows from the artic moves southwards bringing a very cold north to northwesterly winds and lots of precip and from my point of view everyone is expected to see snow.back to the present now as I said a week ago I started a thread about snow this Thursday am still sticking with that am 100% sure the east will see some snow.



(i said that about 8 days ago and no one would believe me lol look now even they canceled my thread of snow potenial thur.

leahyl

yansnow wrote: »

15-12-2009, 07:04 #276
yansnow
Registered User



Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 37
Adverts | Friends Yea it's look really good the further we go it gets colder and colder,as lows from the artic moves southwards bringing a very cold north to northwesterly winds and lots of precip and from my point of view everyone is expected to see snow.back to the present now as I said a week ago I started a thread about snow this Thursday am still sticking with that am 100% sure the east will see some snow.



(i said that about 8 days ago and no one would believe me lol look now even they canceled my thread of snow potenial thur.

Woohoo! "let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!"

octo

leahyl

octo wrote: »

Not looking good for Cork......again:(

doccy

leahyl wrote: »

Not looking good for Cork......again:(

Keep the faith, this is gonna be a big one...I feels it in me bones

eskimocat

doccy wrote: »

Keep the faith, this is gonna be a big one...I feels it in me bones

Don't forget the Donegal Postman was pretty sure too.... more bones talking I feel its going to be good too, just not alot happening around here at present, to bright and sunny, holding out hope for next day or two though....

force eleven

Evelyn Cusack on the 12.55 Radio forecast, only mentioned rain and sleet for the weekend, with wintry showers following. Best chance of snow in these showers over Ulster. Doesn't look like there will be a widespread event. Those who see snow will need to be lucky, or in the usual favoured spots. Not sure about next week though....:rolleyes:

MUSEIST

I think todays forecast from met eireann shows how conservative they are ( and rightly so imo).
For example they are saying tomorrows max will be 1-4 C and only 2 days ago they were predicting higher temps.(even though it was clear from the models that it was going to be very cold for many days now)

They w'ont forecast severe cold up until the last minute because of the inevitable uncertanty that they could be wrong and they dont want to alarm people until there certain.

As for the models I am slightly concerned with the latest gfs as snow fall becomes more marginal across ireland from tuesday but on the brighter side the breakdown is still uncertain in my opinion and it looks like it could stay somewhat chilly until christmas day.
just my 2 cents worth.:)

cian1500ww

Had some rain here in Maynooth, very small mixture of sleet in it but nothing worth talking about. When's this snow, s'posed to arrive ?

MUSEIST

cian1500ww wrote: »

Had some rain here in Maynooth, very small mixture of sleet in it but nothing worth talking about. When's this snow, s'posed to arrive ?

the really cold air wont arrive until tonight so from then onwards I think precipitation
will fall as snow inland and over the hills

squonk

Slight hint of sleet in the latest shower here but nothing very spectacular overall. Roll on this evening!

Pangea

Is anyone else sick of met eireann sitting on the fence :P
I just seen the forecast ,and all talk about "Scattered Wintry Showers and the likes" whereas bbc said heavy snow for northern ireland on sunday.
Im more confused after watching the met eireann foreacst than anything ,bascially they are covering all basis by saying there will be wintry showers , which may mean there could be a bit of sleet or 5 inches of snow!

squonk

Hail here now. It's clattering down the chimney into the fireplace

Su Campu

To see what's down the road later today/tonight here are the Albermarle UK 00Z and 12Z soundings. That's the sort of airmass that will be advected in our direction, though it will become modified a little over the Irish Sea.





You can see the cold advection in between the two times, shown by the shift in the two black curves (dewpoint and temperature) to the left. The 12Z is a perfect snow sounding - small dewpoint-temperature spread in the lower troposhpere, both curves below 0°C (very shallow surface layer slightly above 0°C but that's ok).

The conditions for lake-effect snow along the east coast are there.

H850 temp around -9°C, so travelling over the Irish Sea (about 10°C) there is plenty of absolute instability (you need at least a 13°C difference between the sea surface and the H850 temperatures).

Good low-level moisture

Good wind speeds

Less than 60° directional shear up to H700.

More than 100km sea run

Let's see what happens

More soundings here (for the weekend have a look at the Faroes and Jan Mayen to see what's on the way from the north.)

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

patneve

At the mo North Dublin is in the best position for rain/hail/sleet showers looking at the radar a kind of a 'streamer' has formed NE of Dublin airport

squonk

Quite a long and heavy hail shower we're having here now. Still the same one from my last post. If there are similar conditions tomorrow with some snow, then it could get interesting!

ninebeanrows

Medium intensity hail shower here now as that cold air moves over the Irish sea.

Some shower lines now developing.

We saw some of these lines last year that gave some heavy snow to places however conditions were a little bit more favourable and the cold had been around for longer but there is the possibility that if we can keeps this eaterly flow of reasonable instability until after midnight places could see some snow on the ground come tomorrow morning.

squonk

The ground is taking on a white hue from the hail. Now it'll be gone in 20 mins but there could be some very tricky road conditions in the morning if this keeps up!

squonk

My temp has dropped to 3.7 here now. It was around 5 or so earlier in the morning. About 11~

AfterDusk

squonk wrote: »

My temp has dropped to 3.7 here now. It was around 5 or so earlier in the morning. About 11~

Your temperature @3.7?!!!! Do you have a pulse? Put a jumper on man!

Artfu1Dodger

Streamers starting to form in the Irish sea. I think if these are still
around by this evening somewhere may see a little snow.

maquiladora

17 December 2009 11:20

Today

Continuing cold today with top temperatures only 4 to 7 degrees. Many areas will stay dry with sunny spells but some wintry showers will occur which will be persistent and heavy in parts of the east.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

JackieChan

Skies are overcast and darker over Dublin 8 atm. A hail shower has just stopped.
Plenty of moisture in those clouds as they head westwards!

darkman2

Can also confirm hail shower. Snow level should be dropping quite fast.

plein de force

conditions seem to be good later on for lake effect snow with the temps dropping
already a streamer of precipitation in the irish sea

darkman2

Sleet. Just had a bit of sleet right on the coast here.

eskimocat

plein de force wrote: »

conditions seem to be good later on for lake effect snow with the temps dropping
already a streamer of precipitation in the irish sea

Sorry to be a pain but could someone explain lake effect snow to me please?

francosp

Just over a really heavy hail shower in Dublin City Centre, has now turn to light rain but it has gotten colder also.

Hopefully those streamers contain some snow flurries !

JackieChan

eskimocat wrote: »

Sorry to be a pain but could someone explain lake effect snow to me please?

From wikipedia.
Lake-effect snow is produced in the winter when cold winds move across long expanses of warmer lake water[or the Irish Sea!], providing energy and picking up water vapor which freezes and is deposited on the leeward shores [as snow].
Further info

maquiladora

francosp wrote: »

Just over a really heavy hail shower in Dublin City Centre, has now turn to light rain but it has gotten colder also.

Hopefully those streamers contain some snow flurries !

On the radar it looks like part of that band of streamers is falling as snow on high ground near Newry.

Iancar29

Currently 3.5 Degrees here in north dublin, Light rain also.
Should turn to snow by evening time as the temperature drops further.
But it will hav to be really heavy for it to stick.

DOCARCH

I'm on the shower train! Rain/hail here now. 4.6c atm with DP 2.0c

eskimocat

JackieChan wrote: »

From wikipedia.
Lake-effect snow is produced in the winter when cold winds move across long expanses of warmer lake water[or the Irish Sea!], providing energy and picking up water vapor which freezes and is deposited on the leeward shores [as snow].
Further info

Ah I see, I live not too far from Loch Gill in Sligo Leitrim Boarder, and often we seem to have slightly colder weather than down the road a couple of miles. We could have lots of frost, ice or snow and a couple of miles towards town, there can be little or nothing! That explains it....thumps head with hand... RIght! thanks Jackie Chan

ninebeanrows

Sleety hail here now as the irish sea beats to live. It can be a little beauty at times and thinks are going in the right direction definately, the activity is reasonable.

Were going through a reasonabley fast temperature decrease at 850hpa with temperatures dropping from around -3c to around -10 - -11c tonight.

Meanwhile heavy hail contiues here quite reasonle chunks too.

patneve

not even a shower here in Dalkey, too far South of the 'Streamer'.

Min

We will get it here on the hills in north Kilkenny later this evening or tonight, we normally do with an easterly.

Cosmo Kramer

Just to let you know it is bucketing down the white stuff here in East Kilbride (Scotland) now. We had a few light showers around eleven, but not enough to stick, but in the last hour it's really gone for it, and theres no sign of a let up.

So if the snow is coming in to Ireland from the north/north-east, then it's definately on the way.

Looks lovely but the problem for me is I'm due to drive back to Mayo Saturday night into Sunday morning, if the forecasts hold true, it will be hellish driving conditions...