Will the budget save FF?

Xcellor

Just wondering whether the relatively tough stance in the budget is going to help FF get re-elected? There is no doubt that the policies and generosity of previous FF governments have made the hole bigger but if the people see corrective action happening are they going to fall behind the government?

Some difficult choices were made and I get the feeling that the majority of non-public servants are happy with this.

X

John_Mc

Xcellor wrote: »

Just wondering whether the relatively tough stance in the budget is going to help FF get re-elected? There is no doubt that the policies and generosity of previous FF governments have made the hole bigger but if the people see corrective action happening are they going to fall behind the government?

Some difficult choices were made and I get the feeling that the majority of non-public servants are happy with this.

X

No chance. I personally cannot wait until next election so I can take part in making them the opposition party

McTigs

As much as i hate FF and always have, i reckon this budget as gained them a lot more support than it has cost them.

Having said that i still hope they are history come the next election

billy the squid

ask again in January when the welfare/public service cuts take affect.

judas101

Good budget or bad budget theyre still screwed come election time.

Xcellor

John_Mc wrote: »

No chance. I personally cannot wait until next election so I can take part in making them the opposition party

It would probably be more of a holiday if they were made opposition. They contributed to a fair amount of the problems we face shouldn't they work their asses off to get the country out of it?

I'd be nervous of the current opposition desperation to victimize individuals and sell promises to get elected at the expense of delaying economic recovery...

It must be great to be in opposition now

Hoffa

It is probably enough to ensure that the stay in power until the next election.

However it was too little too late.

As to the next election, the question the other parties need to be asking them selves is not how hard should they try to win, but rather, how hard should they try to loose.

FF have refused to make the hard calls so that who ever replaces them, will have to in their stead.

alfa beta

I think the large part that FF played in letting a promising economy slide into pyramid-land over the last few years will prevent any quick resurgence in support amongst those who feel they're now being asked to pay for what needn't have happened if the quality of governance had been better.

What's more FF have a leader with about as much carisma as a bad case of halitosis.

My problem though is that I see absolutely nothing (policy-wise) in the other parties that offers anything tangibly better. And in terms of leadership nether Eamon Gilmore nor Enda Kenney inspire me in the slightest.

I actually think that if either of the main opposition parties had been in gov over the past decade or so, the likelihood is that we'd be in much the same position as we are now. Obviously that's completely hypothetical and you're totally free to disagree with that view as it can't be backed up by anything whatsoever!!

As for FF, they appear to me to currently have one capable politician and that's Brian Lenihan. With a few more decision-makers and a few less wafflers, there might be a future for the party - but it'll take time and effort and a distinctly new direction in terms of economic policy to make it happen.

It'll also take a new leader and a new tainiste.

johngalway

I don't think the budget hurt them any to be honest.

What would help them is if the Unions remount their high horse and the Government knocks them off it.

Always gotta qualify my remark with nothing against the ordinary workers, but people aren't liking the Union leaders or what they're saying.

bijapos

No. But it will stop the rot for the meantime.

Barring a total collapse of the economy or some massive scandal, this government is here until mid 2012. FF will lose a number of seats but will not be wiped out, the next government will be FG-Lab as Gilmore cannot go in with FF or he will lose all credibility. Nothing will change in the real world as FG are essentially an economically more right wing version of FF, are just as culpable in the rezoning of land that led in it's own way too the crisis and never shouted STOP at any time in the past. Labour will have to get rid of the influence of the unions for us to have any chance of forming some form of just and equitable society in this country. I don't see it happening.

30 months is a very long time in politics, anyone who says FF are finished are frankly naieve. They are down to about 25% from 41% in 2007, this is a loss of 40%, most of these are floating voters who vote with their pockets, a lot of them will go to FG but at the end of the day nothing will change here really. FF have a very strong core vote, see the local elections if you really want to know what I'm on about, they supposedly lost 84 seats (302 to 218) but factor in the FFers who ran as "independents" and they didnt do too bad, lost only 20-25% of their seats at the most, not bad going for the middle of a recession.

Having been employed in the building trade I honestly think we have reached the bottom, we have not turned any corner, but it seems we have at least stabilised. Things may improve next year, I doubt it but I think 2011 we will see a slight improvement and after that we should be out of the worst, but FF will not win the next election. 2017 is a different kettle of fish altogether.

stereo_steve

I have never voted FF. However as of the budget they probably would get my first vote.

Gilmore and Kenny calling the budget severe is ridiculous. I realise its part of the politics game but unless they change their tune I am siding with the party that will look forward and get our finances in order.

I realise FF caused this but I will side with them if they make some changes. Lenihan should be in charge and they need to make a tougher stance to the unions. If you had asked me this a week ago I would have said never FF. What a difference a week makes!

MikeC101

It definitely seems to have been more of a positive than a negative for them.

In the run up to the budget I was actually asking myself that if say a snap election was called, or the budget didn't pass and the government fell, who would I vote for?

Found myself in the, frankly shocking, position of having to consider FF as an option. And, even more shockingly, for the good of the countries chances of economic recovery at that. Of the big parties I'd rule out Labour straight away on the grounds I don't think they'd have the stomach to make any worthwhile cuts to public expenditure. Fine Gael would be a possibility - it would probably come have come down to FF vs FG based on specific policies aimed at recovery, and whether I thought FG would go through with them.

If you'd asked me a few months ago I would have guaranteed I'd never vote FF again (though it's been at least two elections since I have), honestly it's completely nauseating that I might have had to hold my nose and give a preference to a FF name on the ballot sheet.

Edit: Add to that, it's about time somebody stood up to the unions, and the other parties don't seem willing to do so. Thankfully, it looks like this will be dealt with before an election comes around, and I won't feel the need to consider FF.

Yixian

Still think a Labour-FF coalition >>> FG any day.

The FG are the Irish equiv. of the British Tories, and look at what they did to the UK..

bdoo

FF rode the public sector so that will gain the support of many private sector workers. Cutting the dole is not that unpopular with working people who generally vote in high numbers.

If there is a reasonable recovery by 2012 I can see FF being re-elected as they will be able to say that they made hard and unpopular choices but they paid off while FG were decrying everything they did without any credible alternative.

I'm not a FF supporter but I do exercise my democratic right and vote. I'm not going to waste it on bringing Enda Kenny to power the man is a fool. 'more a chairman than a chief' - who wants that? In calling for reform etc. I didnt hear him asking for his pension for being minister for smiles and sunshine or whatever he was twelve years ago to be cut to save a few quid. No, sack the senators was the best he could do.

Poncherello

If the Irish people are that pig ignarant and stoopid that they would vote them back in I would lose all faith in humanity.

Rb

I've the tiniest little bit of respect for them after this budget, but that's not saying much considering I had little to none in the first place.

I know the people here are somewhat shortsighted when it comes to politics, we witnessed that at the last General Election. I won't go so far as to insult FF voters though, yet.

If people who were previously against FF now vote for them as a result of this one decent budget, we as a country are ****ed. Not just now, but in the future as these moronic, deluded, reckless psychopaths will breed and spawn more moronic, deluded psychopaths who seemingly cannot think rationally whatsoever.

This Government has been the most inefficient, corrupt party we have ever seen, and hopefully will ever see. They have squandered billions upon billions of the taxpayers hard earned money, supporting and making rich their friends and failing to put any form of infrastructure that can service the country for more than the year is "completed" in.

Some of the biggest financial criminals in the country are being let retire on full pensions, while the rest of us are put out of pocket to support schemes like Nama to repair the damage caused by these people.

We have a justice system that protects the criminals and punishes the innocent, you've to be almost as nervous going to court over a marijuana seizure as a murder as it seems both convictions will get similar times, if not the drug user/dealer getting more. Not to mention the blatant sexism in our justice system.

We now face a future of paying off debt, us the taxpayer, as a result of the awful governning of this current "ruling" party. Not just us, but our children, and their children.

How shortsighted are we then to say that this reasonably ok budget swung us to support this bunch of corrupt apes once again. Should we see a further re-election of FF in 2012, may we pray that we are invaded and taken over by a ruling dictatorship, for it will serve as proof that democracy does not work here, and should be abandoned lest we drive our country into even deeper turmoil by voting for cute crooks such as B-b-b-b-b-booortie Ahern.

ninty9er

I'm not receiving as much abuse as a known member of Fianna Fáil since the budget. People have been moaning about Social Welfare and the lack of pay cuts in the public sector for a long time now. The pension levy was not seen as a pay cut as it merely asks public sector workers to make a contribution to a golden handshake and a gilt edged pension scheme which most private sector workers on the same salaries would only dream of.

stereo_steve

Rb wrote: »

I've the tiniest little bit of respect for them after this budget, but that's not saying much considering I had little to none in the first place.

I know the people here are somewhat short-sighted when it comes to politics, we witnessed that at the last General Election. I won't go so far as to insult FF voters though, yet.

If people who were previously against FF now vote for them as a result of this one decent budget, we as a country are ****ed

I agree but what is the alternative? Seriously? I know that Kenny is anti the budget largely to gain public respect. The big question is ... Would FG or LAB have made those cuts if they were in power?

I suppose we will never know. In my opinion, labour wouldn't have. FG I'm unsure about.

Liam Byrne

I don't think it should save them.

It'd be a bit like singing the praises of the doctor who saved your life, even though he was the one that knocked you down.

Also, the budget doesn't include the NAMA fiasco, or the fabled promises of zero-tolerance, or the payoffs of people who didn't do their jobs, or tackle the dual and triple payments to former ministers, or tackle the so-called expenses, etc.

So no; while it appears that they finally managed to get one thing right, they're paid enough to get multiple things right, and even if they're human and have a 10% failure rate (after all, we're supposedly paying them fortunes in order not to get "monkeys") then getting one thing right and nine things wrong means they're not even remotely worth the phenomenal amount of money that they're on.

Dr Kamikazi

The problem is that the voting public seem made up of greedy morons.
Over the last 10 years (at least) it has become glaringly obvious that FF was keeping the elite, the public sector, farmers, builders, property speculators (subgroup of farmers really) and publicans sweet. Why? Because these groups make up the bulk of FF.
People in the upper 3rd.
The other 2/3 where paying for that. Increased transport costs, increased prices, decreased services, but many nice loopholes for the upper echelons to get out of paying their way.
These people vote FF the way a fish swims in water. They might vote FG out of protest, to relegate FF to the opposition every now and then, but then it's back to FF. So even IF FG get in the next election, they'll be out again after that and it's business as usual, FF at the helm.
These people vote with their wallets. Who care about the health service, education and infrastructure when you get your family treated in the UK, USA and Europe, and maybe the Blackrock Clinic, pay for inly the best private schools and get around by helicopter, or if you HAVE to drive there, Garda patrol.
The other bit of support that comes to them is a lot of people in the lower 2/3rds, same thing, FF by default, couldn't consider anything else, not possible, strange really, they're not even getting anything out of it, it's like turkeys voting fro Xmas.
So, my prediciton: FG will scrape in, but only if they get the Greens and independents on their side and any other marginal party and even then it'll be tight, and before long the green hoores will jump into bed with FF again, sell out FG and it's all back to where we are now.
And everyone will moan at FF.
And it will never, ever change.

Het-Field

I think many OAPs, Public Sector Workers, and Social Welfare Recipeints are less then happy with FF. With more cuts on the way, that anger is likely to increase. Naturally, that will court the favour of Private Sector Unions, and the suits in the private sector. However, that will not be of huge benefit to the 450,000 who are currently on the live register. Remember, virtually all of those on the register are ex-private sector, or would be competing for jobs in that sector. As such FF are really caught.

This budget, and all that it entails highlights that FF need a change of leader. Cowen is a dithering idiot, who was responsible for the mess that was the "12 Days" proposal. It was unworkable,a nd had no structure. It was a poor leaders attempt at negotiation. Cowen's reputation as a "tough negotiator" is in smithereens, and rightly so. That budget had nothing to do with him. Furthermore, if Bertie and Cowen were still at the top, there would have been NO cuts of any nature. Bertie would have brought the IMF in quicker then he would have allowed the bankruptcy of his support base. It highlights that FF do have a man who is less concerned with FF popularity, and has been open to cutting. Hopefully this budget hastens the day where Cowen gets shifted. I think even the most ardent of FFers would agree with me on this one.

The budget wont save the from losing 10+ seats, and probably sliding from Government. I imagine the budget has pissed off as many people as it has brought onside. The rhetoric of the government about the first "green shoots" highlight that they have been lying all year. Plus the two budgetary ajustments of 2009 were failed attempts, while Budget 2009 was a complete mistake, which has probably set Ireland's recovery back by a year or two. In spite of the VAT reajustment at the top rate, people will still flock to the North to do their shopping, plus the reduction in the price in Booze will only serve to drag the people out of the pubs, and back into the homes, thereby having an adverse effect of the nocturnal events trade.

It was the first sign of a plan, however, that will not be of any relevance to many voters, who will kick FF next time, especially in Dublin, and in the areas where decentralisation was of greatest volume

Rb

stereo_steve wrote: »

I agree but what is the alternative? Seriously? I know that Kenny is anti the budget largely to gain public respect. The big question is ... Would FG or LAB have made those cuts if they were in power?

I suppose we will never know. In my opinion, labour wouldn't have. FG I'm unsure about.

I believe FG would have made the necessary cuts alright and their last time in Government is said to have put in place the structure for the Celtic Tiger, despite some of their policies being deemd "too tough" such as taxing childrens shoes (which, as I said elsewhere, is a fantastic idea and is well warranted over certain cut off points).

Labour wouldn't do anything, they're nice people judging by those I've met but I wouldn't trust them with running the country. Ever.

In the next G.E I plan to vote FG and then fill the rest out with FF. I don't like FF, think they've made some huge f*ck ups over the past few years, but I'll do whatever it takes to keep Sinn Fein, Labour, Green Party (presuming they're still alive after this term) and the majority of independs from the Dail.

danman

The problem, as I see it, is the replacements.

FG probably would have made the necessary cuts, but they will not get into Government without Labour.

I don't believe labour would make any hard decisions in regard to the Public sector reforms that must be tackled next.

We were told that the 2009 budget was to increase taxes, and the 2010 budget was to tackle expenditure. This was said before he budget last year.

The next budget will involve increasing the tax net and slashing social welfare, as a disincentive to leaving your job and drawing the dole if you're a low earner and then have to pay tax.

I can't see Labour allowing FG to impliment any cuts in social welfare.

For me, Labour is the problem with the opposition at present. They are too close to the unions and are all bluff, bluster and soundbites. Any bandwagon of what they may consider popular opinion, they leap onto it.
Describing a 4% (8euro) cut in social welfare as savage, was ridiculous.

If FG can get a majority with the help of independants, it would be much better for the country, than a labour/FG government.

But there's something about Enda............. Get rid of him and I could take them more seriously.

irish_bob

danman wrote: »

The problem, as I see it, is the replacements.

FG probably would have made the necessary cuts, but they will not get into Government without Labour.

I don't believe labour would make any hard decisions in regard to the Public sector reforms that must be tackled next.

We were told that the 2009 budget was to increase taxes, and the 2010 budget was to tackle expenditure. This was said before he budget last year.

The next budget will involve increasing the tax net and slashing social welfare, as a disincentive to leaving your job and drawing the dole if you're a low earner and then have to pay tax.

I can't see Labour allowing FG to impliment any cuts in social welfare.

For me, Labour is the problem with the opposition at present. They are too close to the unions and are all bluff, bluster and soundbites. Any bandwagon of what they may consider popular opinion, they leap onto it.
Describing a 4% (8euro) cut in social welfare as savage, was ridiculous.

If FG can get a majority with the help of independants, it would be much better for the country, than a labour/FG government.

But there's something about Enda............. Get rid of him and I could take them more seriously.

i believe fine gael could secure an overall majority provided they replaced kenny as leader , he is a huge turn off to a large number of voters which is a disaster as thier are a huge number of recently unemployed voters who are looking for a party which is not tainted with the rescession like fianna fail

Idbatterim

Agreed about FG replacing Kenny. Labour in goverment is an absolute worst case scenario. I would much rather FF and FG. As has been said, I am sick of these Labour sound bites. The biggest issue now is still reform of the PS and tackling the semi states! Ofcourse the economy is up there to, but for me, these are definelty the 2 biggest issues of the moment! Lads in 2012, we shouldnt look back and say how did Labour etc get in. Look how well organised the PS unions are and their disproportionate amount of power, well its time for the Private Sector workers and those recently laid off fromer private sector workers! the vast majoirty of the population, to flex their muscles! THE PS NEEDNT FORGET WHO THE MASTER IS! Imagine now, that FG replaced Kenny and adopted a new stance i.e priority is total reform of the PS and SS (private sector wet dream) and economic growth! they would have a landslide victory!

danman

Without Kenny, I'd have no problem voting for FG. He just gives me the creeps.