The political future

Ordinary man

It seems everyone is calling for a change in government after all that has happened but is any party ever going to make a difference? All the politicians up in the Dail had to know and accept the waste and near fraud that went on over the years. Surely if in power they won't be any different. The future td's are trained in by them and so it continues. Thats my opinion, whats yours?

freewheeler

Ordinary man wrote: »

It seems everyone is calling for a change in government after all that has happened but is any party ever going to make a difference? All the politicians up in the Dail had to know and accept the waste and near fraud that went on over the years. Surely if in power they won't be any different. The future td's are trained in by them and so it continues. Thats my opinion, whats yours?

All i can say about that is that you can't just give up either..that achieves nothing except to endorse incompetence..Unfortunately here people just seem to vote for who they always did and accept mediocrity hence our current woes.what we really need here is a complete fresh start to wipe clean the slate and banish forever the sort of gombeenism and nepotism thats rife in our political system...will it ever happen? no...but one can dream..in all honesty we have nothing to lose when you consider what we're stuck with at the moment.

Fulton Crown

freewheeler wrote: »

All i can say about that is that you can't just give up either..that achieves nothing except to endorse incompetence..Unfortunately here people just seem to vote for who they always did and accept mediocrity hence our current woes.what we really need here is a complete fresh start to wipe clean the slate and banish forever the sort of gombeenism and nepotism thats rife in our political system...will it ever happen? no...but one can dream..in all honesty we have nothing to lose when you consider what we're stuck with at the moment.

Yeah agree with most of this post...on the point that "all parties are the same" well yes to an extent.

It just seems to me tha FF have the distinct edge when it comes to the nod and wink / fudge stuff...an that we are paying dearly for Ahernes unwillingness to take the hard decisions.

All very well when the country was booming an the fcukin Galway tent was burstin with builders an developers an chancers of every ilk an the helicopters blacked out the sun.

FG seem more straight than these buffoons and labour even straighter but completely in the hands of the beards...an you don't want to let those testerone filled cnunts anywhere near the levers of power.

We gets the polls we deserve I would opine...just look at that backwoodsman from South Kerry......

Sand

Greena Fail have to go next time out. Have to. How bad do they have to get before they are removed otherwise? Inducing a nuclear winter?

The opposition dont invite a lot of confidence, but Id argue Fine Gael at least offer a coherent option. Labour would probably be a more harmful vote than voting Fianna Fail - as Gilmore has shown by hyperventilating over the "12 days of christmas" offer and how great it was, you might as well vote for 80% taxes as vote for Labour.

Labour are going to be a component in the next government, just have to hope Fine Gael gets enough seats that Labour is of secondary importance and thus cant finish the job Fianna Fail started.

Eliot Rosewater

I'd agree with what Sand said, and hope that the Labour component in the next Government will be minimized but Im not so certain it will be.

I still believe that 1 year ago Fine Gael could have started a national publicity-based campaign to give Irish people confidence and show that they had the leadership, and I believe that if they did this they could have attained an outright majority in the Dail. For example: whatever happened to George Lee? The guy was as close to public super-stardom as a politician will ever be and then he just faded away.

Instead of a proactive approach they clearly took the complacent option and sat back and moaned. We are talking about the largest opposition party to probably the most unpopular Irish government in history, and yet they are barely getting over 40% approval ratings!

oscarBravo

Ordinary man wrote: »

It seems everyone is calling for a change in government after all that has happened but is any party ever going to make a difference?

Here's what I don't understand.

People talk about, in effect, there being no choice but to vote for Fianna Fáil on the rather dubious grounds that the other crowd wouldn't be any better.

To me, that's like a judge refusing to jail someone for stealing my car on the grounds that if he's inside, sure someone else is just going to steal the damn thing anyway.

At this stage, I'm not convinced a nuclear winter would do it. I think we'd need to see a Herod-scale slaughter of the innocents before the good voters of this country decide to get rid of Fianna Fáil, and even then we'd probably have thirty percent of the electorate saying "the only reason Enda didn't murder all them childer is because he wasn't in power".

I mean, sweet sufferin' jaysus, how much damage does a government have to do before we'll punish them in the only way the constitution allows for?

Permabear

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onedoubleo

The political future of this country doesnt look that great is something I think we can all agree on but the stagnation within it is at an unprecedented level. I recently found out that a few firends of mine were having difficulties with placements in secondary schools and that some were unprepared for the volume of students coming in that year. After a quick look on the cso website I saw that this is going to get worse over the next few years with about a 5-6% increase in the next 5 years.
So I did a bit more research and found out that none of the secondary schools actually had figures for the number of pupils in sixth class of the local primary schools. The next logical step in my head was to tell someone who would do something about it. I sent an e-mail to my 4 TD's asking them to set up and email list to open a better line of commuinication between them. I have since recieved countless emails about how my idea has merit and will be discussed at x y and z committee but nothing has actually been done about it.
This is just shocking to me, though better commuinication wont give them the facilities they require they can at least put in whatever preperations they can in ample time instead of a quick call to the prefab companies over the summer.

Someone said in a different thread that the government has basically said good bye to the under 24s and we hope to see you in 10 years. I don't want to leave, I am still in receipt of a fantastic education that I got for free off everyone else's money and I want to be able to contribute the same for the next generation coming through. As much as I complain about the place its home and its been good to me and I want to return the favor. I will have a somewhat specialised skill that can be put to use in many areas both public and private and I will look for work here first but it does feel as though there is going to be slim pickings when I graduate and a strong possibility that I will have to leave the country.

SkepticOne

donegalfella wrote: »

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The have no choice but to make these cuts unless they want to become the party that lost Ireland's economic sovereignty They have not changed. When they have the money they spend it. When they don't have the money they make cuts.

oscarBravo

donegalfella wrote: »

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And Fianna Fáil are ideologically coherent? Do they even have an ideology beyond "get elected"?

Unfortunately electing a FG/LAB coalition simply to "punish" FF might be a case of cutting off our nose to spite our face.

The ever-mutable FF is now transforming itself (as it did under Haughey in the late 80s) into the party of fiscal responsibility. Laugh you may—but Lenihan is sending signals that FF will reduce spending, will stand up to the unions, and will not attempt to tax the private sector into oblivion. These are vital signals. Will a government involving Gilmore's Labour have the courage to do these things?

SkepticOne wrote: »

The have no choice but to make these cuts unless they want to become the party that lost Ireland's economic sovereignty They have not changed. When they have the money they spend it. When they don't have the money they make cuts.

This. If Fianna Fáil had any choice in the matter, do you think they'd be standing up to the unions? The fiscal rectitude they're showing signs of embracing is nothing more than a response to a firm ultimatum from the EU.

I'm not entirely convinced that a FG-led government will be able to sustain a long-term program of fiscal rectitude, but I'm absolutely certain based on their track record that Fianna Fáil won't. Their entire policy - right up to NAMA - is based on a plan to revive the construction and credit bubble by any means necessary, and when they succeed in that, they'll buy the public service unions off again just in time for the next election.

SkepticOne

oscarBravo wrote: »

This. If Fianna Fáil had any choice in the matter, do you think they'd be standing up to the unions? The fiscal rectitude they're showing signs of embracing is nothing more than a response to a firm ultimatum from the EU.

Yes, they are simply responding to circumstances. There is no evidence that they have changed as a party.

Permabear

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oscarBravo

donegalfella wrote: »

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As a thought experiment, imagine Labour in government (as a junior partner) and Fianna Fáil in opposition - do you think the utterances in either case might be somewhat different?

Did Fine Gael or Labour object to the credit-fueled boom of the past decade? Did the urge a change of course when FF was appeasing the unions and the welfare recipients, and stoking the property market to pay for it all?

I'm open to correction, but I believe Richard Bruton was sounding the alarm three or four years ago.

It's a bit far-fetched to suggest that Fianna Fáil intends to revive the credit bubble—and thus the construction boom—all by itself.

I don't think they believe they can do so single-handedly, but my reading of their medium-term strategy is that it's dependent on a return to bubble-era property pricing for success. They may not be able to reinflate the bubble directly, but do you think they will actively prevent it?

Permabear

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ednwireland

got to say - never given FF even a preference in 12 years living here, but the more i here from FG an labour the less i hear any alternatives, the situation the country is in i dont particularly want to here the downside of what the gov. are doing i really need to hear what their alternatives are.
at this point in time i dont know who to vote for.
even FF in Donegal SW are chipper enough to think they might win the by election here next year (they wouldnt have said that a couple of months ago)
although they do say a donkey could stand for FF here and get elected, i guess we will see next year.

RedPlanet

What about Enda Kenny's plan to abolish the Seanad?
Cut the number of TD's by 20, dramatic pay cuts to TD's and Taoiseach?
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1017/politics.html
Just populism?

Riskymove

RedPlanet wrote: »

What about Enda Kenny's plan to abolish the Seanad?
Cut the number of TD's by 20, dramatic pay cuts to TD's and Taoiseach?
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1017/politics.html
Just populism?

well put it this way

was this idea out of the blue?

or was there a bit of talk/media attention about the seanad or number of TDs etc just before he came out with the proposal?

Sand

I think there is a desperate need for root and branch reform of the Irish state, a second republic. I wont criticise Fine Gael for nailing proposals to carry out aspects of that reform to their manifesto.

Fine Gael are the best of a bad lot - but they are better than Fianna Fail, and miles better than Labour. A FG/Labour government is not *inevitable*, even though it is likely that FG will need Labour votes to form a government. How influential Labour, and thus Begg and O Connor are, depends on how many votes go to Labour.

It would be best for Fine Gael to plan electorally for a single party government without Labour - Labour represents vested interests, Fine Gael should represent the tax payer. Unfortunately, those are mutually exclusive objectives as Labours wants to **** over the taxpayer so their buddies can keep in their aristocratic style. Everyone knows it so FG should ensure they have a coherent manifesto rather than trying to incorporate Labours ideas into a non-schizophrenic idea.

Fianna Fail have been quick to recognise the public mood is far ahead of the political class in wanting to see decisive action to right the ship. Hence the FF backbench revolt, which was sparked by a revolt amongst the public.

Fine Gael need to ensure that they are just as decisive in demonstrating they can go into government tomorrow with a coherent program, and show they are going to represent the ordinary taxpayer where the majority of votes lie. People will respect leadership far more than they will respect pandering to vested interests. Fianna Fail are recognising that, they will probably campaign on a manifesto of having done whats needed, of having the courage to face down the unions, of being the best of a bad lot....any by claiming the opposition is unelectable and unable to govern.

They also start to need using George Lee - where the hell has he gone?

ednwireland

Sand wrote: »

Fine Gael need to ensure that they are just as decisive in demonstrating they can go into government tomorrow with a coherent program, and show they are going to represent the ordinary taxpayer where the majority of votes lie. People will respect leadership far more than they will respect pandering to vested interests. Fianna Fail are recognising that, they will probably campaign on a manifesto of having done whats needed, of having the courage to face down the unions, of being the best of a bad lot....any by claiming the opposition is unelectable and unable to govern.

yep thats what i want to see but it just aint happening (although i dont feel as guilty for giving votes to FG )

irish_bob

Sand wrote: »

I think there is a desperate need for root and branch reform of the Irish state, a second republic. I wont criticise Fine Gael for nailing proposals to carry out aspects of that reform to their manifesto.

Fine Gael are the best of a bad lot - but they are better than Fianna Fail, and miles better than Labour. A FG/Labour government is not *inevitable*, even though it is likely that FG will need Labour votes to form a government. How influential Labour, and thus Begg and O Connor are, depends on how many votes go to Labour.

It would be best for Fine Gael to plan electorally for a single party government without Labour - Labour represents vested interests, Fine Gael should represent the tax payer. Unfortunately, those are mutually exclusive objectives as Labours wants to **** over the taxpayer so their buddies can keep in their aristocratic style. Everyone knows it so FG should ensure they have a coherent manifesto rather than trying to incorporate Labours ideas into a non-schizophrenic idea.

Fianna Fail have been quick to recognise the public mood is far ahead of the political class in wanting to see decisive action to right the ship. Hence the FF backbench revolt, which was sparked by a revolt amongst the public.

Fine Gael need to ensure that they are just as decisive in demonstrating they can go into government tomorrow with a coherent program, and show they are going to represent the ordinary taxpayer where the majority of votes lie. People will respect leadership far more than they will respect pandering to vested interests. Fianna Fail are recognising that, they will probably campaign on a manifesto of having done whats needed, of having the courage to face down the unions, of being the best of a bad lot....any by claiming the opposition is unelectable and unable to govern.

They also start to need using George Lee - where the hell has he gone?

george lee has been a big disapointment so far IMO , populist waffling is all we hear from him for the most part , hes pandered to the public sector so much , he might as well be in labour

Koloman

If in a doomsday scenario for FF they came in third behind FG and Lab in a election and FG needed a partner in government would you think FF would make up the numbers as a junior coalition partner with FG? Would FG want them? After all the two parties have more in common with one another than with Labour.

Sand

Its possible. Fianna Fail are certainly going to have seats after the election, no matter how badly their vote collapses, there is the 20-30% inbred voting base they can rely on.

If FG has to form a government and has to choose between an incoherent alliance with Labour/Trade Unions that will only lead to their demise as they fail to implement reform and right the ship, or a government with Fianna Fail which at least will be coherent ( Fianna Fail will have campaigned on being the party able to stand up to the unions) then the FF option will be tempting.

FG at least shouldnt rule out the option - they should campaign on their own manifesto and look to win power outright first and foremost. If nothing else, the potential for a deal with FF should allow FG to keep Labour on a leash.

The only party FG should rule out an alliance with are the Provos. FG should allow they will enter government with any other party willing to accept FG's priorities.

Koloman

It would be ironic if that happened because FG where saying that the only sure way to get FF out of government is to vote for them. FG always implied that Labour might do a U turn and go into coalition with FF if the circumstances were right.

If FG needed a FF rump to get them over the line rather than coalesce with the beards then it would be very tempting indeed!

starbelgrade

What about the Progressive Democrats? Oh, no, wait....

Sand

Hey, if ever a radical, enterprise friendly party not afraid to represent the interests of taxpayers against the trade unions was needed...

starbelgrade

Sand wrote: »

Hey, if ever a radical, enterprise friendly party not afraid to represent the interests of taxpayers against the trade unions was needed...

And what about the taxpayers in the private sector who are part of a trade union.. do they get a seperate party?

View

Sand wrote: »

Hey, if ever a radical, enterprise friendly party not afraid to represent the interests of taxpayers against the trade unions was needed...

Well, that wouldn't be the PDs. They didn't have a problem with benchmarking if I recall correctly...

View

Sand wrote: »

...Labour represents vested interests...

As do FF & FG. I once heard FF described as "the political wing of the Construction Industry".

starbelgrade

View wrote: »

As do FF & FG. I once heard FF described as "the political wing of the Construction Industry".

Only once?

starbelgrade

View wrote: »

Well, that wouldn't be the PDs. They didn't have a problem with benchmarking if I recall correctly...

They did have a problem with bench-pressing though.

nesf

Koloman wrote: »

If in a doomsday scenario for FF they came in third behind FG and Lab in a election and FG needed a partner in government would you think FF would make up the numbers as a junior coalition partner with FG? Would FG want them? After all the two parties have more in common with one another than with Labour.

Not a hope in hell. I'd see FG/SF happening first tbh, at least in the next 10 years anyway.

starbelgrade

nesf wrote: »

Not a hope in hell. I'd see FG/SF happening first tbh, at least in the next 10 years anyway.

I predict a riot. Well, not quite - a rainbow coallition & history repeating itself (alebeit with different colours in the rainbow).

View

nesf wrote: »

Not a hope in hell. I'd see FG/SF happening first tbh, at least in the next 10 years anyway.

Based on the opinion polls, the numbers could be there for that alright. It is hard to imagine the negotiations on a possible coalition would be easy though!

Het-Field

The only way change will occur in Irish politics is if Fine Gael and Fianna Fail collapse. However, that collapse would need to stimulate the conglomeration of the liberals and the conservatives in both parties into two separate blocks. Any overflow of "socialists" "left leaning social democrats" would be required to join The Labour Party.

This would promote an ideologically based political system, and would do away with the tribelism which has wrecked Irish politics for years. I have met people who have said to me "sure my family vote Fianna Fail, who else would I vote for", and "he is a good local Senator. Its an indictment of our system that these people dont understand that pollitics should be personal, and not tribal or parochial.

European political models are what we must aspire to, i.e. where people vote on ideologies rather then individuals. We must do away with a system which indoctrinates young people before they could vote, and doesnt seek to actualise them politically.

Once the tribal nature of FG and FF is eliminated, then I feel our politicans will become more responsible.

Cork Boy

1. FF did not 'ride the wave of cheap credit'. Their active de-regulation of the financial markets opened ireland to world wide "cheap" credit.

2. Praising Lenihan & FF for now taking the necessary steps to correct the finances is like praising someone for trying to come up with a cure for aids when it was them who fcked you in the a-hole in the first place.

3. A Lab/FG coalition with any significant labour strength will be no good - we need a single party govt to take decisive action.

4. Parties do not need to be wiped out to save our future, we need to punish parties who do the wrong thing and not re-elect the likes of Bev Flynn, Mike Lowry, Bertie Ahern (who was re-elected while being dragged through the tribunals), etc.

5. We do need more power devolved to local govt. Your TD shouldn't be your go-to man to have a pothole fixed.

6. To those who say Kenny won't make a good taoiseach, he only dragged the party back from oblivion and is not afraid to have a strong team around him (unlike bertie who shipped off anyone getting too much attention).

7. To those who won't vote kenny cos he's a bore, its attitudes like that that got the following elected - Haughy, Ahern, Bush, Reagan, etc.

8. David McWilliams' 'Follow the Money' should be FG's election campaign, anyone who votes FF after reading that waives the right to ever give out about our govt again.

9. Voting for anyone (incl FG, Lab, SF, FF) because your parents did makes you a brain dead, dependant idiot child.

Rant out

RedPlanet

Cork Boy wrote: »

5. We do need more power devolved to local govt. Your TD shouldn't be your go-to man to have a pothole fixed.

I'm in 2 minds about this.
Yes it sounds nice on paper, but this is precisely the reason why silly housing estates were built in unsuitable locations - like flood plains (Sallins, Co. Kildare).
It is the local Council that re-zones the land.
After that, it's an avalanche of local invested interests piling on the pressure to get the planning signed off.
It takes an extreme intervention (John Gormley) to put the madness to a halt, and piss off the local council.

View

RedPlanet wrote: »

I'm in 2 minds about this.
Yes it sounds nice on paper, but this is precisely the reason why silly housing estates were built in unsuitable locations - like flood plains (Sallins, Co. Kildare).
It is the local Council that re-zones the land.
After that, it's an avalanche of local invested interests piling on the pressure to get the planning signed off.
It takes an extreme intervention (John Gormley) to put the madness to a halt, and piss off the local council.

A fair point but it needs to be remembered that one of the very few powers local councils have here are their zoning/re-zoning powers. Hence, what the council does is of extreme interest to people with a property link but of almost no interest to anyone else. This results in a situation where you just have one pressure group pushing the council in one direction, so we have decisions like the above.

In other places, councils have lots of powers - they can raise taxes, issue bonds (i.e. debt), run the local schools, police etc. Hence, in these systems what the council does is of interest to an awful lot of people. This results in multiple pressure groups trying to get the council to make decision on a lot of topics - hence no one pressure group can dominate the council. It also means it is easier to get groups to oppose bad decisions as it is a matter of getting existing pressure groups to oppose the decisions, rather than outside pressure groups needing to be set-up from scratch.

recedite

onedoubleo wrote: »

So I did a bit more research and found out that none of the secondary schools actually had figures for the number of pupils in sixth class of the local primary schools. The next logical step in my head was to tell someone who would do something about it. I sent an e-mail to my 4 TD's asking them to set up and email list to open a better line of commuinication between them. I have since recieved countless emails about how my idea has merit and will be discussed at x y and z committee but nothing has actually been done about it.

.

These guys don't give a toss, as long as the country can still borrow enough money to keep paying them big salaries and expenses, with their long holidays. Classic parish pump politicians.

T runner

Ordinary man wrote: »

It seems everyone is calling for a change in government after all that has happened but is any party ever going to make a difference? All the politicians up in the Dail had to know and accept the waste and near fraud that went on over the years. Surely if in power they won't be any different. The future td's are trained in by them and so it continues. Thats my opinion, whats yours?

I feel a huge part of the problem is how candidates for election are selected and the difficulty of talented people to amke it onto our ballot papers.

The fact that a few professions form the vast majority of TDs (including 22% publicans!) reflects this.

RedPlanet

It's possible that FF won't be in the next government.
However i think it really depends on how a few matters play out.
When Brian Lenihan takes over the party, i can totally see them being back in power.

It'll all depend upon how Cowen is removed (personal "health" issue sensationalized to the hilt?).