In the Indo today - Ireland candidate to leave EMU

100gSoma

from the indo... pure tripe talk.


Ireland may exit euro region in 2010
By Bo Nielsen

Friday December 11 2009

Ireland is among countries in an "intolerable" economic situation that may lead to bailouts and exits from the euro region before the end of 2010, according to Standard Bank Plc.

"We question the ability of countries like Ireland and Greece to grow out of the current crisis," Steve Barrow, head of Group of 10 foreign-exchange strategy in London, wrote in a note today.

"With interest rate cuts, exchange rate depreciation and significant fiscal support all off limits for these countries, it seems likely that bailouts — or even pullouts from EMU — are likely" before the end of 2010.

- Bo Nielsen

Flamed Diving

Yes, it is tripe.

silverharp

the chatter is more the other way that Greece Spain etc will be a drag on the Euro

Chipboard

I don't think we'll exit the euro region but I reckon we'll de couple from the Euro at least temporarily.

Must devalue.
Only way out of this recession.
Has to happen sooner or later but our denial means it will probably be later.

Économiste Monétaire

How can a country "de-couple" from the Euro but stay in the Euro area? If you leave the Euro, you leave the Euro area.

Nate--IRL--

Chipboard wrote: »

I don't think we'll exit the euro region but I reckon we'll de couple from the Euro at least temporarily.

Must devalue.
Only way out of this recession.
Has to happen sooner or later but our denial means it will probably be later.

The country's debt, both public and private, is in Euro, can't "Devalue" that.

Nate

Flamed Diving

Économiste Monétaire wrote: »

How can a country "de-couple" from the Euro but stay in the Euro area? If you leave the Euro, you leave the Euro area.

Not just the Euro area, but the Euro region...

Perhaps they mean the Eurozone. Third times a charm, eh? :pac:

ED 209

I think there will be a global recalibration of currencies under IMF SDRs. I don't think we should leave the eurozone. However, I do recognize the problems low ECB interest rates caused us during the boom years.

We need to get on the same business cycle as Germany. Our property boom came down to the ECB and low interest rates to stimulate the German economy. If Germany recovers before us now. We could be in a for a bit of trouble as interest rates rise accordingly.

Devaluing a currency never works. Fortunately Merkel has leaned on the ECB to be relatively prudent. I hazard to think what would have happened if our Central Bank had control of the printing press. Liquidation of debt causes more problems than it solves.

Look, we need to rethink the role of government in this country. It needs to shrink dramatically. We don't have the money to sustain it. Concentrating on eliminating the deficit should be the main objective. Blinkered racehorse style.

topper75

ED 209 wrote: »

Concentrating on eliminating the deficit should be the main objective. Blinkered racehorse style.

Blinkered to export growth?

egan007

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Yes, it is tripe.

Yes - the paper name gave that away.

ED 209

topper75 wrote: »

Blinkered to export growth?

Export growth will be tough. Wages are way too high here to make it work. We don't have the skill level to pull off advanced R&D. We are a nation of builders, electricians, carpenters and plumbers.

A large number of Irish companies offshore tasks because they are too expensive to be carried out here. This has to change.

I think we need to focus on Asia. That's where the money is right now. Both on an export and tourism level. However, in order to be competitive we must transition a large quantity of public servants into the private sector by reducing taxes and cutting government spending.

Time Magazine

ED 209 wrote: »

Export growth will be tough. Wages are way too high here to make it work. We don't have the skill level to pull off advanced R&D. We are a nation of builders, electricians, carpenters and plumbers.

A large number of Irish companies offshore tasks because they are too expensive to be carried out here. This has to change.

I think we need to focus on Asia. That's where the money is right now. Both on an export and tourism level. However, in order to be competitive we must transition a large quantity of public servants into the private sector by reducing taxes and cutting government spending.

You think we're a nation of builders, electricians, carpenters and plumbers, but think Asia is where the money is with regard to exports?

Also, Asia's pretty big.

ED 209

Time Magazine wrote: »

You think we're a nation of builders, electricians, carpenters and plumbers, but think Asia is where the money is with regard to exports?

Also, Asia's pretty big.

I believe that there is huge potential for Irish businesses in Asia. For instance, software start-ups particularly in the gaming (casino) sector. However, only a small percentage of workers can benefit from this.

I think Asian tourism is a huge opportunity for Ireland. However, I don't think Discover Ireland has even bothered to investigate how to position ourselves as an "exotic" location for the Asian market. This would create more everyman jobs.


With regard to the "nation of builders...". I believe that too many people decided that the easy money was too good so they dropped out of or never attended third level during the boom. Compare us with a fellow EU country like Poland and we fare very badly when it comes to third level qualifications.

As a result, unless we can stimulate another building boom there is no short term answer to our economic problems. The proportion of people with the tools to take advantage of a new "knowledge" or "creative" economy is too small to get us out of the mess that we are in.

strathspey

ED 209 wrote: »

We don't have the skill level to pull off advanced R&D. We are a nation of builders, electricians, carpenters and plumbers.

I'd be a bit more generous and say that the Irish are a nation of farmers and tradesmen, hardly what you would call a cosmopolitan lot. They other disadvantage is that Ireland is predominantly Catholic, similar to the other delinquant economies of Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain, otherwise affectionately referred to as the PIIGs.

RizzoJR

ED 209 wrote: »

I believe that there is huge potential for Irish businesses in Asia. For instance, software start-ups particularly in the gaming (casino) sector. However, only a small percentage of workers can benefit from this.

Whatever Irish workers you think can benefit from this
there are a million asians that can do same/better job
at a fraction of the price!!!

ED 209 wrote: »

I think Asian tourism is a huge opportunity for Ireland. However, I don't think Discover Ireland has even bothered to investigate how to position ourselves as an "exotic" location for the Asian market. This would create more everyman jobs.

This is a joke, right??
Asians aint too fond of the booze, getting ripped off,
and crap public transport,
and NOBODY likes the rain.

Asians will goto Australia on holidays.

ED 209 wrote: »

With regard to the "nation of builders...". I believe that too many people decided that the easy money was too good so they dropped out of or never attended third level during the boom. Compare us with a fellow EU country like Poland and we fare very badly when it comes to third level qualifications.

Dont blame younger generation for dropping
out to get into construction industry,
whats the point of school??
whats the point of college??
esp as most kids see school as a pure pain and punishment

I believe the previous generation, ie these young builders' parents, need to shoulder the blame for the property bubble - both the price rises and the amount of young
people that were "allowed" to follow the easy money.

ED 209 wrote: »

As a result, unless we can stimulate another building boom there is no short term answer to our economic problems. The proportion of people with the tools to take advantage of a new "knowledge" or "creative" economy is too small to get us out of the mess that we are in.

Another funny one "stimulate another building boom"
you mean bubble??

Ireland will never become a "knowledge working information economy"
because........ Leaving Certificate Honours Maths!!!!!!

Even if some kid is a whizz at maths,
they will probably want to do medicine, law, etc

Corporation tax is the only thing keeping Ireland afloat,
rooms full of multinationals' accountants fiddling sales
through the republic.

Hasschu

Rizzo- you are ranging far and wide.
The horribly soft under belly of our predicament is that there is no quick fix. It is even worse, there is no easy way out. The ECB (god bless them) is now telling our "gov't" that they do not have the wherewithal to guarantee bank deposits.

I know that the ECB is right which makes our "gov't" wrong. But as Maithir Eireann herself once said aren't we the masters of the quick fix and easy way out. Oh! how I wish that it were so.

Flamed Diving

RizzoJR wrote: »

whats the point of school??
whats the point of college??

I'm gonna frame this...

Slippers

ED 209 wrote: »

We don't have the money to sustain it. Concentrating on eliminating the deficit should be the main objective. Blinkered racehorse style.

A lack of money is not a valid obstacle for a country. Either there is something physical lacking in the country or there isn't. Money is just numbers.

Slippers

Slippers wrote: »

A lack of money is not a valid obstacle for a country. Either there is something physical lacking in the country or there isn't. Money is just numbers.

oh dear

Slippers

Deleted User wrote: »

oh dear

www.cfoss.com/grip.html

"A town can be in desperate need of a school, community centre, or repairs to its roads and drains. The raw materials may be lying idle in a builder's yard, people may be desperate for work, but there isn't enough money... so we can't do it. In what possible sense can we not afford to do what we plainly can, in physical terms, achieve?

This situation is accepted because it is assumed that monetary statements are valid, and that a lack of money means a lack of something vital. But what is missing? If the lack of money were paralleled by a lack of manpower, raw materials, desire or demand, that would at least be rational. For any one person not to have enough money is rational; for an entire economy constantly not to have enough money, and thereby prevented from doing what it is clearly capable of doing, is absurd."

Flamed Diving

Workers of all lands, unite!

Flamed Diving

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Workers of all lands, unite!

You'll have to hold the meeting somewhere close and central though - no money for transport remember?

Flamed Diving

Deleted User wrote: »

You'll have to hold the meeting somewhere close and central though - no money for transport remember?

True, well one thing motivates men more than money and ideology... and that is fear. Communist dictatorship, anyone?

Must we go down this road again?

Slippers

He's just talking about quantitative easing. What's it got to do with communism?

Flamed Diving

Slippers wrote: »

He's just talking about quantitative easing. What's it got to do with communism?

Is he? I didn't read your link, nor do I intend to. All I can see from your quote is an argument that implies that since we have lots of stuff lying around and people doing nowt, we should be capable of getting it to do stuff. Given the information we have, we have two options, we can organise it centrally, or choose a decentralised means. Or for a third, a mix of both, which is what 99% of all nations choose. This question was the talk of 19th century economics. By 1991, things became a lot clearer.

Anyway, this has nothing to do with the thread, and neither does anything you have said.

Is Ireland about to leave the EMU?
Should we? Why (not)?

Slippers

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Anyway, this has nothing to do with the thread, and neither does anything you have said.

Apologies, it just irks me when someone talks about a whole country being short of money, like we still had to dig it out of the ground.

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Is Ireland about to leave the EMU?

No

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Should we? Why (not)?

If there are advantages to leaving the EMU the biggest I could see would be that it might be easier to persuade one legislature to convert accounts at commercial banks from commercial bank money to central bank money and have central bank money as the prevailing medium of exchange than sixteen simultaneously.

Hasschu

http://www.eurointelligence.com/uploads/media/Euro_Area_Meltdown_Web_Edition.pdf

An article relevant to the subject under discussion.