Is this a one off?

Smcgie

Ive been home sick today and yesterday with the flue (not the swine)

Both days i have been playing on stars on the $20 dollar Double or nothing then eventually moving to the $50

Basically i havent lost 1 single one and I'm finding them very easy.

Yesterday i won $324 playing them
Today i won $470

That's 2 days off sick and i won $794 (€526) have i got a hidden talent. I always knew i was good at poker and had a big tourney win back last year. But i have been so busy with work that Ive never had a chance to play anymore...

Your thoughts please, could it ruin me? Should i try the normal S&G's etc etc

CHD

When your not sick and bored and play these they will depress you. Variance will also get you and when you are better and stars don't feel sorry for you they will hit your doomswitch and you will lose alot.

It's a nice earner on the side, keep it at that and don't ruin yourself.

How many did you play?

mdwexford

lol

Whyno

Move up levels

dannydiamond

Smcgie wrote: »

Is this a one off?

It sure is.

Tight Ted

Definitely quit your job.

SpencerJames

What are you asking exactly here?? are you asking wheter you should give up work and crush double ups every day all day? are you asking if you are the best player in the world because you won 20 double ups in arow??. also out of curiosity what was your big tourney win?

anyone that plays poker regulary online will know that these double ups are soul destroying.

You have played 2 days of these. Im guessing in or around the 20 mark? Its a great run, but it has very little to do with your skill level. I wouldnt give up the day job just yet! certainly not after a good run over 20-40 double ups!

Smcgie

SpencerJames wrote: »

What are you asking exactly here?? are you asking wheter you should give up work and crush double ups every day all day? are you asking if you are the best player in the world because you won 20 double ups in arow??. also out of curiosity what was your big tourney win?

anyone that plays poker regulary online will know that these double ups are soul destroying.

You have played 2 days of these. Im guessing in or around the 20 mark? Its a great run, but it has very little to do with your skill level. I wouldnt give up the day job just yet! certainly not after a good run over 20-40 double ups!

1. I'm not giving up my day job
2. I only wanted to see have anyone else been making money this easy.
3. Biggest Tourney win was €6543 on boylepoker last year for €10+rebuy

I played about 15 games today at $20-$50 and i just havent lost 1. Since my last message Ive won another 3 $50 dollars.

Its prob luck but i was wondering are many making $ off the DON? I'm off tomorrow and ill let you know how i do. *cough*cough*

lucky-colm

you are in an up-swing

and this will be followed by a down-swing

the big seceret is to maximise your winnings during your up-swings and minimise your losses during your down-swings

alot easier said than done

imo don't go rushing into giving up the day job just yet (try another day or two at it first, just kidding)

Flushdraw

Smcgie wrote: »

1. I'm not giving up my day job
2. I only wanted to see have anyone else been making money this easy.
3. Biggest Tourney win was €6543 on boylepoker last year for €10+rebuy

I played about 15 games today at $20-$50 and i just havent lost 1. Since my last message Ive won another 3 $50 dollars.

Its prob luck but i was wondering are many making $ off the DON? I'm off tomorrow and ill let you know how i do. *cough*cough*

Fancy posting your screen name on stars?

Smcgie

Flushdraw wrote: »

Fancy posting your screen name on stars?

Y? what difference would that make?

Flushdraw

Smcgie wrote: »

Y? what difference would that make?

Because i want to see if you've been at my table recently and if not, i want to rail and see how you play

Smcgie

Flushdraw wrote: »

Because i want to see if you've been at my table recently and if not, i want to rail and see how you play

Fair enough, its the same as my boards name. Give me a wave in the chat box

SpencerJames

Basically you are missing the basic concept of variance. Im assuming you are a thinking player. So lets say you have adequate skill( you may be the best or worst player in the world, but for the sake of this lets just assume you are a competant player.) You have only played a handful of these, its not uncommon to go on a serious upswing in these double ups. but Ive played an awful lot of these a while back. I was winning on average 63/100. Doke played alot more than me and found his win rate to be similar over a much larger sample. What im trying to get at, is variance will level you out a bit and while there is still a chance you can continue to make money at them, you are crazy to think you can continue at the same pace.

Basically, you have played close to hardly any of these. there isn't much money to be made playing them, but im sure you can make a few hundred dollars or a large sample.

ill get doke to post, he's a lot better at explaining than me. You dont have the basic understanding of variance in poker and this is crucial to uderstanding these double ups.

Smcgie

SpencerJames wrote: »

Basically you are missing the basic concept of variance. Im assuming you are a thinking player. So lets say you have adequate skill( you may be the best or worst player in the world, but for the sake of this lets just assume you are a competant player.) You have only played a handful of these, its not uncommon to go on a serious upswing in these double ups. but Ive played an awful lot of these a while back. I was winning on average 63/100. Doke played alot more than me and found his win rate to be similar over a much larger sample. What im trying to get at, is variance will level you out a bit and while there is still a chance you can continue to make money at them, you are crazy to think you can continue at the same pace.

Basically, you have played close to hardly any of these. there isn't much money to be made playing them, but im sure you can make a few hundred dollars or a large sample.

ill get doke to post, he's a lot better at explaining than me. You dont have the basic understanding of variance in poker and this is crucial to uderstanding these double ups.

Thank you for your post, i think it makes a lot of scene. I don't consider myself an excellent player, but i do find i can read people fairly well. I have no fear of re-raising a raise when my gut instinct tells me that i am ahead... Today that has worked for me wonderfully.

The DON's are prob not good for the long term outlook of poker as you get very little heads up play etc.

Anywho, ive lost one now :rolleyes: this could be the start. I will quit for the evenin on profit.

HeeHawsCantona

i will play u in one now for the laugh if you wish

robinblinds

Smcgie wrote: »

I only wanted to see have anyone else been making money this easy.

I know a guy who's had a $10 million swing in the past week. No ****.

Ace2007

robinblinds wrote: »

I know a guy who's had a $10 million swing in the past week. No ****.

he wasn't playing DoN's though was he?:rolleyes:

robinblinds

That wasn't the question though

The Snapper

lucky-colm wrote: »

you are in an up-swing
Because he ran well he was on an upswing yes, there is no guarantee it will continue hence you cannot be "in an up-swing"

and this will be followed by a down-swing
At sometime in the future? most likely.

the big seceret is to maximise your winnings during your up-swings at all times and minimise your losses during your down-swings at all times

alot easier said than done
Yeah, got that one right

imo don't go rushing into giving up the day job just yet (try another day or two at it first couple of thousand sng's

.

Mellor

lucky-colm wrote: »

the big seceret is to maximise your winnings during your up-swings and minimise your losses during your down-swings

[ ] This is a big seceret (sic)

Irish Iron

Some Random Post I Saved A While Ago From Some Random Site wrote:

The first thing you must realize (and this is very counterintuitive), is there's no such thing as downswings. There's no such thing as upswings. There's no such things as streaks, but the brain tells us the opposite... and we believe what our brain tells us... so, wtf?

The only time a streak exists is when you're thinking about it, otherwise, it's in the past or future.

FOCUS ONLY ON THIS HAND, RIGHT NOW, THIS MOMENT, PERIOD!

Easier said than done, I know, but it's what separates the gr8 from the good. You have no control over yesterday, and tomorrow hasn't happened, so the only other option is RIGHT NOW!

As long as you continue to focus on "trying to deal w/ my downswing," you'll be ignoring today, and the decisions needed to play your best NOW! That statement (dealing w/ downswing) is, by definition, the past. The downswing is what happened in previous sessions.

Moving down limits may take some pressure off, but it doesn't address the "thinking about the past" issue.

If you feel like you can't stop thinking about the past, take a break. Your thoughts have to be about THIS HAND ONLY!

Remember, you'll believe whatever your thoughts tell you to believe... so shift your thoughts to RIGHT NOW!

The results will be what they'll be.

Stay focused,
Dayne

The book the poker mindset also talks about this in great depth, i wish i had it on me here now to quote from it.

Yes variance will happen but theres no such things as uppers and downers dictating when

califano

Irish Iron wrote: »

The book the poker mindset also talks about this in great depth, i wish i had it on me here now to quote from it.

Yes variance will happen but theres no such things as uppers and downers dictating when

Doesnt work. The newly diagnosed grimes disease is partially caused by taking on this type of mindset. They think theyre calm but they eventually explode.

lucky-colm

Irish Iron wrote: »

The book the poker mindset also talks about this in great depth, i wish i had it on me here now to quote from it.

Yes variance will happen but theres no such things as uppers and downers dictating when

i have read this book and it is a very good read it does state that down swings are theooretical but are a name we give to periods when we loose more than we expect or the cards don't hold up

reality is AA wins roughly 80% of the time, that does not however mean that it wins 8 times and looses 2 times and then wins the next 8 times and then looses the next 2 times and so on and so on. no what it means is that over a long period of hands played we will take 2000 hands as an example it has won 1600 times, but it could have won 300 of those hands on the trot and then lost 100 times in a row, and that is your downswing. it is not inconcievable to think that there is times in poker when every hand you get gets beaten for a random period of time it happens to everyone and then that is coupled with things like raising utg with AA or KK and the whole bloody table folding around and going for long lengths of time without picking up any cards, all this leads to frustration which leads to tilt and then a bigger downswing than would be normally expected. and then that brings us back to the point that downswings don't exist at all in the first place but they are a figment of our imagination.

DrJFF

lucky-colm wrote: »

i have read this book and it is a very good read it does state that down swings are theooretical but are a name we give to periods when we loose more than we expect or the cards don't hold up

reality is AA wins roughly 80% of the time, that does not however mean that it wins 8 times and looses 2 times and then wins the next 8 times and then looses the next 2 times and so on and so on. no what it means is that over a long period of hands played we will take 2000 hands as an example it has won 1600 times, but it could have won 300 of those hands on the trot and then lost 100 times in a row, and that is your downswing. it is not inconcievable to think that there is times in poker when every hand you get gets beaten for a random period of time it happens to everyone and then that is coupled with things like raising utg with AA or KK and the whole bloody table folding around and going for long lengths of time without picking up any cards, all this leads to frustration which leads to tilt and then a bigger downswing than would be normally expected. and then that brings us back to the point that downswings don't exist at all in the first place but they are a figment of our imagination.

Post of the Year imo :pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

Hectorjelly

SpencerJames wrote: »

Basically, you have played close to hardly any of these. there isn't much money to be made playing them, but im sure you can make a few hundred dollars or a large sample.

Yeah of course in the long run he might not have a huge positive expectation, but in the context of a single tournament he may well win 100% of the time. If he can somehow keep that up he could be the next isaldur1!

a-k-47

but how much did u lose:rolleyes:

doke

These were my main game for a while, and were very profitable. But over a large sample I seriously doubt anyone is going to cash more than 60-65% of the time. I eventually stopped because my edge shrunk down towards 55% which made it more pofitable for me to play normal stts.

I assume the reason I was able to sustain a higher win rate over a large sample for a while is that is was when I was doing them initially, they were ralatively new. The fish hadn't a clue how to play them. Even the decent stt regs who played "by feel" rather than having a detailed knowledge of the strategic implications of ICM were playing them very sub optimally because they hadn't made certain adjustments to the flatter payout structure and larger bubble in a DoN, there are often spots where it's correct to turn down an 80/20 gamble getting pot odds of evens: that simply doesn't happy very often if at all in a normal STT. However, the regs quickly copped on as did the fish who decided to stick with them. I've had similar experiences with other "new" introductions like superturbo headsup sit n gos: in the beginning people play them really badly so you can have a huge edge, but it doesn't last long.

It's not quite as simple either as saying at the start you'll have a big edge and then it disappears because within that there are cycles and revivals. When I stopped playing DoNs, they were dominated by a few decent regs. When I tried them a few months later, all those regs appeared to have moved on (presumably for the same reason I did) and there was more value. Then a new set of regs emerged and they became less profitable again.

In my opinion there are only two ways to make decent money out of sit n gos:
(1) Game select and be prepared to move around to follow the fish
(2) Find something you have a small but consistent edge at and can multitable like crazy, and get a good rakeback
deal

Also, Rory's point about sample size is spot on. You need to play at least 500 before you can have any real clue as to what your edge genuinely is

DrJFF

doke wrote: »

In my opinion there are only two ways to make decent money out of sit n gos:
(1) Game select and be prepared to move around to follow the fish
(2) Find something you have a small but consistent edge at and can multitable like crazy, and get a good rakeback
deal

this the best advise you can get about SNG's, sometimes 30$ SNG will be alot more tough than a 300$ SNG etc

MegaSin

I am on a horrible downswing losing 2/3 of my roll. Not alot of money but for me loads.

Hope to build it back up. Least I know I can with 2$:D

smoothcall

DrJFF wrote: »

this the best advise you can get about SNG's, sometimes 30$ SNG will be alot more tough than a 300$ SNG etc

hmm, find that hard to belive

MegaSin

smoothcall wrote: »

hmm, find that hard to belive

Bigger field maybe?

DrJFF

smoothcall wrote: »

hmm, find that hard to belive

it will not be too often but it is common for the lower games to fill up wit regs who are all competant and will not make any "huge" mistakes and understand the basic sng strategy well

however if you game select higher you can sometimes find higher games with fair weaker opposition maybe 3 or 4 huge fish who have lil concept of SNG strategy and have funny looking sharkscopes

honestly it may sound hard to believe but there are soft games out there if you look for them

doke

smoothcall wrote: »

hmm, find that hard to belive

It's actually true in my experience. For example, it's not unusual at the weekends for the higher stakes stts to fill up in the evenings with the biggest fish in town, while the medium stakes are dominated by competent rakeback or FPP chasing grinders.