BBC Sports Personality

supremenovice

Just browsed through the candidates for this years Sports Personality and think that David Haye could be a bit of value at 12/1 on betfair.
Reasons?
Well I thought Button, the favourite, wasnt as well received in the press as Hamilton was last year and even he didnt win.
He pretty much fumbled his way to the Champonship.
Plus the Brits are not afraid to vote for a boxer as Calzaghe won a few years ago, and hes Welsh.
Ryan Giggs hasnt a hope no matter where he comes from.
The rest dont count.

Remember just how much of an outsider Haye was to beat Valuev for the title? He got tremendous coverage because of it.
And it just might be sticking in the publics minds come next Sunday when its time to text in that vote.
Of course, working in Buttons favour is the fact that the Beeb broadcast F1, so expect him to be pushed to the moon, instead of David 'Sky Box Office' Haye.

Worth a consideration though.

In_tuition

Should be Lee Westwood.

Devastator

yeah but you have to take into consideration its the british public that votes......ffs they voted a show jumper to win the other year :rolleyes:


they're a mad nation, I wouldn't risk my money because they'll probably pick some nonse to win.


It is funny how they scrape the barrell for some entrants, I would love to ask the reality tv watchers at home a few questions about the 'sports personality' they are voting for (eg Tom Daly - name me ANY other high diver EVER? Andy monotonous...sorry murray - what tournaments did he win? then theres a bloke who does the hop skip and jump - why can't he just do the long jump?)

dynamopiev

Button has got it hands down.

Hamilton was popular in the press, but there were always a lot of groups on facebook slagging him off and i'm not convinced the wider public were sold on him. It was the year that he left Britain as well to move to Switzerland and I think there was some resentment there as well.

Button is more popular and also factor in that the circumstances around Braun make it a bit of a fairytale win. Also this was the first year that the BBC held the coverage of the formula one, so they may build his case up more this year.

Formula One drivers have historically done well in it, with Mansell and Hill both winning it.

Haye could run him closeish, but his fight was pretty dull and he's a bit cocky and abrasive, compared to Lennox Lewis etc.

Welsh and Scottish contestants can often skew things as they seem to get block votes (arguably) hence Leon winning the X factor and Calzaghe's suprise sports personality and I think that could put Giggs third, especially as he's a footballer.

In_tuition

dynamopiev wrote: »

Button has got it hands down.

Hamilton was popular in the press, but there were always a lot of groups on facebook slagging him off and i'm not convinced the wider public were sold on him. It was the year that he left Britain as well to move to Switzerland and I think there was some resentment there as well.

Button is more popular and also factor in that the circumstances around Braun make it a bit of a fairytale win. Also this was the first year that the BBC held the coverage of the formula one, so they may build his case up more this year.

Formula One drivers have historically done well in it, with Mansell and Hill both winning it.

Haye could run him closeish, but his fight was pretty dull and he's a bit cocky and abrasive, compared to Lennox Lewis etc.

Welsh and Scottish contestants can often skew things as they seem to get block votes (arguably) hence Leon winning the X factor and Calzaghe's suprise sports personality and I think that could put Giggs third, especially as he's a footballer.

Nicely analyzed.

myflipflops

Giggs will go off favorite. The whole thing is about working out the demographic that votes on the night.

Giggs has 2 major voting groups - Man Utd fans and the Welsh. These are both big groups in terms of numbers and in terms of voting power. The Welsh voted in Calzaghe 2 years ago and will look to do the same with Giggs this year. Also, expect an announcement in Old Trafford on/during/after the VIlla game the day before SPOTY encouraging all fans to vote for Giggs.

With the X Factor final on ITV opposite SPOTY, the voting will be smaller in volume so not as many votes needed to win.

The other factor is That Jessica Ennis is Sheffield born, bred and she trains there. SPOTY is in Sheffiled this year. Expect a campaign on her behalf in a city of 500k plus people.

Don't think about this as a contest of who deserves it more - that's kept for an arguement down the pub. SPOTY is about who will get the votes.

Personally, I'm green on the field bar Button and will probably continue to lay him up to 2.5. My Ideal result is:

Idowu (hasn't a breeze)
Ennis
Giggs

but realistically i want:

Giggs
Ennis
Anyone but Button

raheny red

Giggs has been lumped on since it was tipped in the RP. 16s into 4s.

Esroh

As said above the British Public are the voters and can be lead. It was not a Showjumper it was a European and World eventing champion who happened to be the Grand Daughter of Queen of England and there wa a big push in equestrian circles to get votes .
So here 's one for you. Mark Cavendish pro Cyclist. There is a huge swell of support for him in cycling mags and on cycling forums just like for Chris Hoy last year.

angeldelight

I think Andy Murray will win this one. Before being injured he got up to world number two, the first British tennis player to do so since Fred Perry. He won a number of tournaments in 2009, crucially this includes the Queens Club pre-wimbledon tournament and also two Masters series events. I'd be surprised if it wasn't him

myflipflops

angeldelight wrote: »

I think Andy Murray will win this one. Before being injured he got up to world number two, the first British tennis player to do so since Fred Perry. He won a number of tournaments in 2009, crucially this includes the Queens Club pre-wimbledon tournament and also two Masters series events. I'd be surprised if it wasn't him

I'd be absolutely amazed if he won. No particularly popular amongst the masses due to him being basically the anti-Henman, his Scottishness surprisingly doesn't count for much. He's not 200/1 for nothing.

mailburner

angeldelight wrote: »

I think Andy Murray will win this one. Before being injured he got up to world number two, the first British tennis player to do so since Fred Perry. He won a number of tournaments in 2009, crucially this includes the Queens Club pre-wimbledon tournament and also two Masters series events. I'd be surprised if it wasn't him

should be 10000/1
didnt even make the final of a major never mind winning one
i think the 200/1 quote is so people think he
has a chance and so people will bet on him
Until he wins one of the majors/slams he has no chance

mailburner

having just looked at paddys price i see giggs
is 5/2 2nd fav
I'm lost here
How the hell is giggs second favourite?
someone enlighten me
lifetime achievement award maybe?

I see now murray is 50s...lol
might be the bookies way of
attracting money
his day might come but it
wont be this year for certan
I mean if he won wimbledon in the next year or two (which he wont)
they'd have to give it to him again

x in the city

mailburner wrote: »

should be 10000/1
didnt even make the final of a major never mind winning one
i think the 200/1 quote is so people think he
has a chance and so people will bet on him
Until he wins one of the majors/slams he has no chance

Andy got a better chance on winning MWII than anything else this year

Bluetonic

mailburner wrote: »

having just looked at paddys price i see giggs
is 5/2 2nd fav
I'm lost here
How the hell is giggs second favourite?
someone enlighten me
l

Best thing you could do is find out how the winner is picked. It's a public vote and considering the welsh and Man Utd vote will be behind him I'd say he's worthy of the price.

Kod-box

button is on jonathan ross the night before the awards, depending how he comes across on that will sway alot of votes, when does voting start or has it started?

robinph

Hamilton got second two years in a row didn't he, and probably only lost out last year due to it being an Olympic year and it basically have not been worth any other country turning up for the cycling events in Beijing so Hoy being the cycling teams figurehead was going to get the SPOTY.

I'd guess it would be between Button and Haye.

Bluetonic

Kod-box wrote: »

button is on jonathan ross the night before the awards, depending how he comes across on that will sway alot of votes, when does voting start or has it started?

Only open on the night.

myflipflops

WIth about 45 minutes to go before the announcement, Giggs has gone favorite on Betfair.

Admittedly, the show and voting started at 7pm or so so technically, Button did start the show as favorite.

Kod-box

he's gone 8/11 in paddypower now, got him at 3/1 earlier on so hope they have it right.

Amigomenor

You must be hard up for a bet if you are looking at the BBC sports personality, get on to the XFactor, Joe has to win!!!!

Seriously the betting on this is just for the bookies, give it up.

myflipflops

Amigomenor wrote: »

You must be hard up for a bet if you are looking at the BBC sports personality, get on to the XFactor, Joe has to win!!!!

Seriously the betting on this is just for the bookies, give it up.

Why would i give up my best traded market of the whole year?

Bluetonic

Bluetonic wrote: »

Best thing you could do is find out how the winner is picked. It's a public vote and considering the welsh and Man Utd vote will be behind him I'd say he's worthy of the price.

There you go.

efb

Giggs won. well done.

Kod-box

jacool

efb wrote: »

Giggs won. well done.

I trust that's well done the gamblers, not well done Giggs !
This has not been his best year of 20, and he's not even Man Utd's player of the season!
And them English cricketers beat our unbeaten Grand Slammers !!
Where was Sea The Stars ? ?

raheny red

999 matched on betfair a while back. A very happy christmas somewhere

myflipflops

jacool wrote: »

I trust that's well done the gamblers, not well done Giggs !
This has not been his best year of 20, and he's not even Man Utd's player of the season!

I don't think there a rational person anywhere who would argue that he deserved the award based on pure merit. That's not what SPOTY is about anymore though.

jacool

myflipflops wrote: »

I don't think there a rational person anywhere who would argue that he deserved the award based on pure merit. That's not what SPOTY is about anymore though.

true Beanie true !