Dunquib

premierstone

Anyone else agree with me that the connections should at the very least seriously contemplate the Champion Hurdle this year as opposed to the Supreme, the horse is 6 and tbh will learn alot more in seasoned company rather than novices, surely they must at least enter him in the Irish Champion and see where they stand??

cson

I disagree, my thoughts are here;

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055758092

Whyno

premierstone wrote: »

Anyone else agree with me that the connections should at the very least seriously contemplate the Champion Hurdle this year as opposed to the Supreme, the horse is 6 and tbh will learn alot more in seasoned company rather than novices, surely they must at least enter him in the Irish Champion and see where they stand??

He'll have an entry to those races but i doubt he'll run in anything bar novice company. He's only 6 and still maturing so they'll stick to novice races and collect some decent money along the way and slowly but surely build him into a champion hurdle contender in 10/11 NH season or as it was stated elsewhere he could go novice chasing en route to a possible challenge for the GC in the 11/12 nh season.

mdwexford

It would be madness to run in the Champion Hurdle.
Hype has gone way into overdrive on Dunguib, hes beaten trees so far on heavy ground like so many overhyped novices in Ireland over the past 10 years.

Morgans

You'd expect him to be a short price for the supreme novice. Something could come and beat him, but for now, he is fair deal ahead of what is out there. The fact that he is proven on the course helps. I dont think him being a short priced fav for the supreme as overhyping the horse.

Saying at this stage that he is a serious contender for the Champion is lunacy. Bookies would be absolutely delighted to take your bet. Delighted.

premierstone

Morgans wrote: »

You'd expect him to be a short price for the supreme novice. Something could come and beat him, but for now, he is fair deal ahead of what is out there. The fact that he is proven on the course helps. I dont think him being a short priced fav for the supreme as overhyping the horse.

Saying at this stage that he is a serious contender for the Champion is lunacy. Bookies would be absolutely delighted to take your bet. Delighted.

Never said he was a serious contender, but I definitely think its worth consideration, and just checked there now obviously Paddy Power agree with me he is 4/1 for the Champion Hurdle NRNB

Morgans

So, you are saying that Paddy Power are agreeing with you that he is a contender?

Again, bookies will absolutely love you to back Dunguib, NRNB or not. Lunacy.

He is a worthy favourite for the Supreme.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote: »

You'd expect him to be a short price for the supreme novice. Something could come and beat him, but for now, he is fair deal ahead of what is out there. The fact that he is proven on the course helps. I dont think him being a short priced fav for the supreme as overhyping the horse.

Saying at this stage that he is a serious contender for the Champion is lunacy. Bookies would be absolutely delighted to take your bet. Delighted.

He should be short enough for the Sup Nov, 6/4 is too short for what hes done though, 4/1 and being Champion Hurlde fav with a run is insane.

premierstone wrote: »

Never said he was a serious contender, but I definitely think its worth consideration, and just checked there now obviously Paddy Power agree with me he is 4/1 for the Champion Hurdle NRNB

PP are retarded for having him that short.

RichieLawlor

His next run won't be till February so it's not inconcievable he may be odds on before he even runs again if nothing comes out btween now and then with potential

premierstone

Morgans wrote: »

So, you are saying that Paddy Power are agreeing with you that he is a contender?

Again, bookies will absolutely love you to back Dunguib, NRNB or not. Lunacy.

He is a worthy favourite for the Supreme.

Im just saying that they obviously feel there is a very live possibility they could be tempted to go that route, and on a side note while we are led to believe that this years Champion is absolutely loaded all I've seen so far is leading contender after another dissapoint and Celestial Halo is the only one thats reputation is intact and thats because it hasnt run.

Personally I think they should let Dunquib take he's chance in the Irish Champion and re-assess from there, my gut feeling and from what I've seen on the track and from the rumours I heard before he even ran a bumper last year are that he is an absolute machine, once in a generation type and could be capable of anything.

Fenton actually told a friend of mine early last year that this horse would win the 10/11 Champion on the bridle and while I nearly choked on my pint at the time and spent the following hours laughing at the ludicrous prediction, I have since been converted.

Morgans

Celestial Halo has run.

Make sure of these things before punting bandwagons.

Im old enough to remember novices winning the Irish Champion before being unplaced in the supreme. Its a good quiz question out there for those who are that way inclined.

I think Dunguib is a fantastic animal. Backed him in the bumper last year and was counting winnings from the top of the hill. A superb animal. He would have a shot in the Irish Champion, but Fenton should train him for the Supreme.

premierstone

Morgans wrote: »

Celestial Halo has run.

Make sure of these things before punting bandwagons.

Yes apologies had for some reason completely forgotten he's run giving weight to Whiteoak.

As for your second sentence thanks for the advice much appreciated oh btw whats ''punting bandwagons'' That something ye used to do back in the day

Morgans

premierstone wrote: »

Yes apologies had for some reason completely forgotten he's run giving weight to Whiteoak.

As for your second sentence thanks for the advice much appreciated oh btw whats ''punting bandwagons'' That something ye used to do back in the day

Im afraid the punting bandwagons hasnt really gone away. I dont think they should rule out the champion, but I dont think they should damage the horse by asking too much too soon. Before my time but even Golden Cygnet who was the best winner of a supreme ever took on the big boys as a novice and died in a fall. Make A Stand won it as a novice but didnt horses never trained on afterwards. There is a separate division for novices for a reason. I see no good reason for going for the champion, and even less reason for backing him for the champion on the basis of paper talk. As I said, bookies love those bets.

premierstone

I understand what your saying and to a certain extent agree, but imo there is always an exception to every rule and I honestly think this fellow is that good, watch the race today, now granted I have only seen it the once will watch the recording later, but he gave away 5 lenghts I would estimate with he's jumping at the first 3 obstacles and still hosed in without breaking sweat. So what did he learn today?? Absolutely nothing only how to beat inferior novices on the bridle and for people to suggest that all he did was beat trees is ludicrous Some Present and Sweeps hill are among the top novices in this country.

IMO a novice season is about eduacating the horse and preparing him for Championship racing the year after and Dunquib is quite clearly learning nothing only bad habits in novice company, let him run in the Irish Champion and then on to the Supreme if that suits, but at least find out how good and how ready he is without totally dismissing it becasue its ''not the done thing''

Morgans

premierstone wrote: »

I understand what your saying and to a certain extent agree, but imo there is always an exception to every rule and I honestly think this fellow is that good, watch the race today, now granted I have only seen it the once will watch the recording later, but he gave away 5 lenghts I would estimate with he's jumping at the first 3 obstacles and still hosed in without breaking sweat. So what did he learn today?? Absolutely nothing only how to beat inferior novices on the bridle and for people to suggest that all he did was beat trees is ludicrous Some Present and Sweeps hill are among the top novices in this country.

IMO a novice season is about eduacating the horse and preparing him for Championship racing the year after and Dunquib is quite clearly learning nothing only bad habits in novice company, let him run in the Irish Champion and then on to the Supreme if that suits, but at least find out how good and how ready he is without totally dismissing it becasue its ''not the done thing''

That's exactly the point. In a championship race, those three sloppy jumps means he is beaten. That is exactly the difference. Again, he only beat the same horses that he beat last year. We'll know more later on in the year, but the plan should be Leop at Christmas, DEloitte, and Supreme. Anything else and Fenton goes even lower in my estimation.

sting60

was on him first time out and at cheltenham.he WILL run if all is well in champion hurdle.Look at what the Bowes did with their good horses they ran them for prize money and were burnt out by cheltenham.this is the same strategy fenten is employing,so my guess is he wont win anything at cheltenham.watch at christmas noel meades young horse Bigjohnbrown then supreme novice at the festival.

cson

It's Thegreatjohnbrowne and taking him to the Supreme Novices via a NHF race which he won last week is highly dubious to say the least.

And you can't say where he will run for definite, are you Fenton or the Hartnetts? He's likely go for the Supreme Novices by all admissions in any case.

Please back up any claims you make in future.

sting60

everybody remember that bumper winners tend to want two and a half miles at least,Montelado an exception.soft/heavy over two miles is a must.flat bred on good ground will always beat two mile bumper winners.Paddy power is not a bookmaker almost as bad as ladbrokes that's saying something.Anybody backing the horse at the odds quoted for either race at cheltenham need to see a shrink.this horse will not win at cheltenham if ground is good or better.Connections are looking at champion hurdle but that has recently been tempered by the performance of zanar and something from alan kings yard, who is reported to be top top drawer.

Colonel Sanders

sting60 wrote: »

everybody remember that bumper winners tend to want two and a half miles at least,Montelado an exception.soft/heavy over two miles is a must.flat bred on good ground will always beat two mile bumper winners.

6 of the last 9 winners of the supreme have come via the bumper route

6 of the last 8 if I want to bias my argument by counting on from Likeabutterfly

I was originally looking at the last 10 years, one of which didn't take place

Colonel Sanders

And the last 2 flat breds to win (Arcalis & Ebaziyan) both won poor renewlas

Colonel Sanders

1st 7 listed in the Supreme novice page on oddschecker are not ex flat horses. All except French bred Royal Charm were bumper runners (and winners as well I think)

You should start backing the ex flat horses at huge prices so

Nulty

mdwexford wrote: »

He should be short enough for the Sup Nov, 6/4 is too short for what hes done though, 4/1 and being Champion Hurlde fav with a run is insane.



PP are retarded for having him that short.

No, anyone who backs him at that price is retarded

Nulty

Any one got an opinion on the Christmas Novices? I have a soft spot for Judge Roy Bean who is entered there along with "the mighty" Dunguib. 2m in heavy ground will suit the Bean and I fancy him to give Dunguib a good run. If both turn up and the prices are right (guaranteed for the Bean if Dunguib is there) I'll be backing O'Grady's horse.

Also, what exactly is meant by 'flat bred'?

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Also, what exactly is meant by 'flat bred'?

Sired by a horse who attracts mainly mares who raced on the flat and/or had a pedigree to race on the flat. Istabraq one of the more famous recent examples

Colonel Sanders

For example have a look at the Coolmore website for examples of horses they currently stand as flat stallions and NH stallions

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

Any one got an opinion on the Christmas Novices? I have a soft spot for Judge Roy Bean who is entered there along with "the mighty" Dunguib. 2m in heavy ground will suit the Bean and I fancy him to give Dunguib a good run. If both turn up and the prices are right (guaranteed for the Bean if Dunguib is there) I'll be backing O'Grady's horse.

Also, what exactly is meant by 'flat bred'?

Wouldnt back Judge Roy Bean with stolen money. Plenty will be attracted by connections, but second season novice with tons of chances who got off the mark in a typically uncompetitive 2m novice. Plenty of horses with more scope up against him, will hopefully make the market. Depending on the field, would be looking to place lay. Following Clopf and O Muirheartigh in my view. Finds zip off the bridle for me.

Nulty

Thanks Colonel,

how about Judge Roy Bean? He's by Sadlers Wells out of Be My Hope, and half brother of Cane Break - Troytown winner and Cheltenham GC 5th in 07.

Is the Bean flat bred?

Nulty

Morgans wrote: »

Wouldnt back Judge Roy Bean with stolen money. Plenty will be attracted by connections, but second season novice with tons of chances who got off the mark in a typically uncompetitive 2m novice. Plenty of horses with more scope up against him, will hopefully make the market. Depending on the field, would be looking to place lay. Following Clopf and O Muirheartigh in my view. Finds zip off the bridle for me.

The form certainly supports your statement. Shinrock Paddy murdered The Hurl on Sunday.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Thanks Colonel,

how about Judge Roy Bean? He's by Sadlers Wells out of Be My Hope, and half brother of Cane Break - Troytown winner and Cheltenham GC 5th in 07.

Is the Bean flat bred?

Bit of a contradiction to my last post!

Saddler's Wells is one of the greatest flat stallions of the last 30 years. However Judge Roy Beans Dam looks like having a jumping pedigree and has been covered, for the most part, by jumps stallions

Over the last few years I've noticed some of Magnier's & JP McManus's jumping horses being by a flat stallion, usually Saddler's Wells but I've noticed a few by Montjeu (and most of these were bred in New Zealand) more recently

So I reckon jumps bred despite the sire

Nulty

I suppose you can call him jumps bred coz he was aimed at a jumps career, starting in bumpers.

Whyno

sting60 wrote: »

was on him first time out and at cheltenham.he WILL run if all is well in champion hurdle.Look at what the Bowes did with their good horses they ran them for prize money and were burnt out by cheltenham.this is the same strategy fenten is employing,so my guess is he wont win anything at cheltenham.watch at christmas noel meades young horse Bigjohnbrown then supreme novice at the festival.

sting60 wrote: »

everybody remember that bumper winners tend to want two and a half miles at least,Montelado an exception.soft/heavy over two miles is a must.flat bred on good ground will always beat two mile bumper winners.Paddy power is not a bookmaker almost as bad as ladbrokes that's saying something.Anybody backing the horse at the odds quoted for either race at cheltenham need to see a shrink.this horse will not win at cheltenham if ground is good or better.Connections are looking at champion hurdle but that has recently been tempered by the performance of zanar and something from alan kings yard, who is reported to be top top drawer.

Stop sniffing glue like a good man. Your 2 posts are so full full of fail i`m in shock.
Judge Roy Bean packed it in the last day.Wont hold a candle to Dunguib. Its possible he didnt stay the last day but with the way he cocked his jaw and ran around going to the last two hurdles i feel hes not in love with getting into a battle.

Nulty

Whyno wrote: »

Stop sniffing glue like a good man. Your 2 posts are so full full of fail i`m in shock.
Judge Roy Bean packed it in the last day.Wont hold a candle to Dunguib. Its possible he didnt stay the last day but with the way he cocked his jaw and ran around going to the last two hurdles i feel hes not in love with getting into a battle.

Can an arguement be made that JRB could pick up the form and thrust himself into contention for a big race the same way as Khyber Kim has?

Morgans

Maybe there is some hope, but you'd want longer odds than what Judge Roy Bean will be to make it an attractive bet. If he is second favourite up against Dunguib at Leopardstown, it makes Dunguib even more of a certainty, or it makes the ew/forcast market.

Khyber Kim has changed stable, changed training methods within his new stable. Someone might find the key to Judge Roy Bean, but even if they do, there has been little to suggest that he is that good enough to get close to Dunguib in any case. I dont see the form.

Of course, if you want to bet using something else other than the formbook as a guide, that's fine too.

Nulty

Morgans wrote: »

Maybe there is some hope, but you'd want longer odds than what Judge Roy Bean will be to make it an attractive bet. If he is second favourite up against Dunguib at Leopardstown, it makes Dunguib even more of a certainty, or it makes the ew/forcast market.

Khyber Kim has changed stable, changed training methods within his new stable. Someone might find the key to Judge Roy Bean, but even if they do, there has been little to suggest that he is that good enough to get close to Dunguib in any case. I dont see the form.

Of course, if you want to bet using something else other than the formbook as a guide, that's fine too.

Fair enough. I'm not that familiar with jumps trainers yet but it doesn't appear that many trainers can improve a horse taken from O'Grady, would I be right?

In some cases, I know, a horse just needs a fresh start but in relation to better training methods, is there only one trainer better than O'Grady in Ireland?

Morgans

I think if the horse is good enough, O'Grady will get it out of him.

I think becuase of past successes and connections a lot of his horses are overhyped and JRB is one of them. It doesnt mean that he cant train though. And I think if JRB was given to any trainer that its more than likely he would still have his problems.

Of course, this is only an opinion and he could hose up. I'll be betting against it. In fact, I'd like him to run in a race where he would be 1/3 on, as I would oppose him there also.

Khyber Kim is a pretty rare case. He had some red hot novice form for Henderson but seemed to only look a possible top-notcher when fresh. Whatever Twiston-Davies is doing, its working for this horse.

Nulty

Morgans wrote: »

I think if the horse is good enough, O'Grady will get it out of him.

I think becuase of past successes and connections a lot of his horses are overhyped and JRB is one of them. It doesnt mean that he cant train though. And I think if JRB was given to any trainer that its more than likely he would still have his problems.

Of course, this is only an opinion and he could hose up. I'll be betting against it. In fact, I'd like him to run in a race where he would be 1/3 on, as I would oppose him there also.

Khyber Kim is a pretty rare case. He had some red hot novice form for Henderson but seemed to only look a possible top-notcher when fresh. Whatever Twiston-Davies is doing, its working for this horse.

I'll leave my obsession with JRB alone until he runs in at Leopardstown against 'Guib but O'Grady was on Get On this morning and said the ground was too testing for him last day suggesting that Sadlers Wells dont like extreme ground conditions. Didn't sound too convincing...:(

I'll take 8's eachway if the going has good or soft in the description. End Of.