Stormy Dec 9 (Budget!)

pauldry

Looking at wetterzentrale latest run the forecast for Dec 9th is looking particularly windy if not stormy.

Maybe Budget changes will blow away!

Martron

i think you have it the wrong way around...... we will be blown away by the changes

Joe Public

I hear they are going to tax snow so keep quiet about any sightings.

maquiladora

It's a bit too far out...

The 0Z GFS run brings it very close to Ireland, the 06Z run has it futher away. That will chop and change a lot before Tuesday.

Interesting that there is some model consensus on the the system itself (way early to except consensus on intensity or track). But ECMWF, UKMO, GEM and GFS all develop 'something' off the west coast for around that time.

imstrongerthanu

maquiladora wrote: »

It's a bit too far out...

The 0Z GFS run brings it very close to Ireland, the 06Z run has it futher away. That will chop and change a lot before Tuesday.

Interesting that there is some model consensus on the the system itself (way early to except consensus on intensity or track). But ECMWF, UKMO, GEM and GFS all develop 'something' off the west coast for around that time.

That something off the west coast;could be the night mary harney explodes.
:eek:

maquiladora

If that tracked further south before making its turn to the northeast it would be the worst storm since the Christmas Eve storm of 1997 I'd say?

Will be keeping an eye on the wobbles and changes over the next few days but the likelihood is that won't happen. GFS nearly always downgrades these events before they happen.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

If that tracked further south before making its turn to the northeast it would be the worst storm since the Christmas Eve storm of 1997 I'd say?

Will be keeping an eye on the wobbles and changes over the next few days but the likelihood is that won't happen. GFS nearly always downgrades these events before they happen.

JASUS!, WATS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ON TAT "FORESCENE SYSTEM"?!?!

pauldry

Yes it may downgrade but its something to keep an eye on and lets face it theres no exceptional snow event looming unless they tax it as someone said

pauldry

Sponge Bob

The GFS always overdeepens a week out. Everybody chill till saturday or sunday .

945mb my arse , that'd be a cat3+ hurricane

maquiladora

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The GFS always overdeepens a week out. Everybody chill till saturday or sunday .

945mb my arse , that'd be a cat3+ hurricane

I agree, GFS has a habit of doing that, but its interesting that a few of the major models are hinting at something.

0Z Euro :

force eleven

Wouldn't pay much heed for another 48hrs or so. If it still shows up the same or close to the same, we may have an event, but even in our technological age, we still won't get a handle on any event like this until 2 or 3 days out.

maquiladora

12Z GFS brings it closer to us, but its the GFS and its 4 or 5 days away so no need to worry

jenzz

Joe Public wrote: »

I hear they are going to tax snow so keep quiet about any sightings.

Ah sh"*& - better send back the snow machine - I wanted to redo the Vodafone ad " Bray " style

Deep Easterly

Latest UKMO chart (12z) for next Monday:



ECM picked up on this potential in yesterday's run but had the storm centre running up through the country and as a result brought the strongest winds in the wake of the passing and a little to the south. It is a track that needs to be watched as others have said.

Looking forward to a decent storm, which have been sadly lacking in the last few years. Hopefully this one may deliver!

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Looking forward to a decent storm, which have been sadly lacking in the last few years. Hopefully this one may deliver!

ECM 12Z doesn't seem to develop it at all now.

Sponge Bob

Gone as soon as I opened my mouth , wish they were all like that

Joe Public

Met Eireann have it written off as well

maquiladora

Joe Public wrote: »

Met Eireann have it written off as well

Eh? The Met Éirean outlook only goes as far as Sunday.

Joe Public

maquiladora wrote: »

Eh? The Met Éirean outlook only goes as far as Sunday.

On the 18:55 weather forecast they ran the charts on to the weekend and there was nothing major on the horizon so that was good enough for me. If something threatens after a few more days then it may feature.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM 12Z doesn't seem to develop it at all now.

Typical :rolleyes:

Although will be interesting to see if the potential is still there in a day or two. I just hope the tonight's ECM was just a once off, because the entire run, not just for this storm potential, just shows a continuation of the present set up for the next 10 days, which is amongst the most boring set up of all.

JanuarySnowstor

Joe Public wrote: »

On the 18:55 weather forecast they ran the charts on to the weekend and there was nothing major on the horizon so that was good enough for me. If something threatens after a few more days then it may feature.

Yes and they were very accurate in forecasting the flooding last wkd for the East:rolleyes:

shamwari

Next Wednesday better be ok - I've a concert to go to that night...:p

maquiladora

ECM 0Z develops it again and brings it closer to us.

The GFS 06Z run brings it closer to us but reduces the intensity.

UKMO and GEM 0Z runs develop it but swings it well away out to sea.

Take yer pick, but they will all be changed again tomorrow...


ECM 0Z :

Sponge Bob

Shown as a Tuesday event more than a Weds one in the later runs and they are at 955 minimum today up from 945 yesterday. I still believe it will be a non event

maquiladora

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Shown as a Tuesday event more than a Weds one in the later runs and they are at 955 minimum today up from 945 yesterday. I still believe it will be a non event

Well the 12Z GFS has the storm bombing at 945 again but on this run it curves further away from Ireland. I don't think any of the models have a good handle on it yet.

12 GFS :



Severe winds out at sea, if that tracked close to us it would be fairly windy :pac: ...

maquiladora

The GFS isn't the only model showing a strong system, check out the isobars on the 12Z GME/DWD run....

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Well the 12Z GFS has the storm bombing at 945 again but on this run it curves further away from Ireland. I don't think any of the models have a good handle on it yet.

12 GFS :

Severe winds out at sea, if that tracked close to us it would be fairly windy :pac: ...

Encouraging charts again today, and bring it on I say . Even if the main explosive area stays to the west and northwest, there is always a chance that a secondary trough may develop in its wake and throw up a squall line or two over Ireland. :cool:

Discodog

I am emigrating. Yr.no has it raining in Galway every day next week !

maquiladora

Discodog wrote: »

I am emigrating. Yr.no has it raining in Galway every day next week !

Accuweather 5 day forecast doesn't paint a pretty picture for you either...

Rain Total:52.1 mm
Winds 54 G(125) km/h

maquiladora

12Z ECM develops the storm to 950 on Tuesday. Lots of time for that track to shift and the intensity to change until then. Will be fun watching the models over the next few days...

Min

We need a good dry and calm spell, not storms, snow is fine, hate storms.

Deep Easterly

ECMWF's 12z take on this reoccurring potential:



As an aside, the same model is showing the possibility of some wet spells over the coming weekend, particularly over the south and east; nothing set in stone just yet but may need watching.

maquiladora

The 18Z GFS develops a very strong storm (seems a bit too strong) but keeps it far enough out to sea that only the northwest coast would feel the strong gales.

ninebeanrows

This type of storm you honestly wouldn't want to hit land.

Fortunately it looks to be staying out to sea.

Would cause utter uphevel.

We'd be taking coastal gusts to 130mph.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

This type of storm you honestly wouldn't want to hit land.

Fortunately it looks to be staying out to sea.

Track can change quiet a bit in 5 days...although all of the models show it curving far enough away from us at the moment.

Storm 10

This chart shows it coming over the Country and some wind into the UK

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

This chart shows it coming over the Country and some wind into the UK

If you go to the Netweather GFS viewer and select UK Winds youll see how far the strong winds actually extend outwards. On the track the models are showing at the moment it would be just a strong breeze for most places apart from the west and northwest costal areas.

Sponge Bob

That Icelandic website is spot on , thanks. I assume "vedur" is simply Weather .

http://en.vedur.is/

Danno

That looks like a nasty low - and still some time for it to change course, intensify/detensify... we should know alot more Sunday Morning.

maquiladora

UKMO fax chart :

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

UKMO fax chart :

Can I ask a question maquiladora, or to anyone in the know...

What's do these FAX charts tell us in comparison to the normal UKMO charts?
Is it the main difference the fronts being shown?

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

Can I ask a question maquiladora, or to anyone in the know...

What's do these FAX charts tell us in comparison to the normal UKMO charts?
Is it the main difference the fronts being shown?

Its called a fax cause its a facsimile of the master chart. Yeah the main difference is that you can see the fronts and troughs along with the surface pressure features. Im sure the others here can tell you more about them.

maquiladora

The 0Z GFS pulls the storm even further out from us, seems to be a trend emerging with that curve up to Iceland now. Could be "storm cancel" time again... :pac:

Deep Easterly

Rougies wrote: »

Can I ask a question maquiladora, or to anyone in the know...

What's do these FAX charts tell us in comparison to the normal UKMO charts?
Is it the main difference the fronts being shown?

More or less Rougies. FAX charts are the human interpretation of what is the most likely synoptic scenario to emerge based on a number of models, primarily the UKMO and ECMWF. The FAX run may sometimes conflict with the short range UKMO in which case it would be better to go with the FAX run.

Storm 10

Just watched the Marine Weather on RTE by Met Eireann and tonight they are warning of a very big storm on Tuesday into Wednesday, also they say it could get stormy today Saturday with very heavy rain and no let up into next weekend.

imstrongerthanu

Any updates guys?

Storm 10

Totally changed again with Gales and rain up to Wednesday followed by much calmer weather. Amazing how things change from Friday nights marine forecast

Deep Easterly

Yeah it just looks like the same 'aul bag: rain, showers, windy at times.

Yawn...:(