Unemployed

23border

How many in the country are unemployed now? Anyone know the current official figure?

Bandit12

Think the offical figure last month was 455,000 but i'd say it's nowhere near that. A hell of a lot of people out there claiming dole and working on the side.

gurramok

My other half will be unemployed by Xmas along with a few others. Remember alot were thrown onto Fas courses in Sept as well as emigration creeping up.

skearon

Bandit12 wrote: »

Think the offical figure last month was 455,000 but i'd say it's nowhere near that. A hell of a lot of people out there claiming dole and working on the side.

Absolutely correct, and finally we have seem to have woken up to this fact. Prime Time's special on Welfare Fraud next Monday will make interesting viewing, and I suspect additional resources will be made available in next week's budget to tackle welfare thieves.

amacachi

skearon wrote: »

Absolutely correct, and finally we have seem to have woken up to this fact. Prime Time's special on Welfare Fraud next Monday will make interesting viewing, and I suspect additional resources will be made available in next week's budget to tackle welfare thieves.

I wonder if they followed a completely random sample of people and found a high proportion of them to be fiddling the system or if they went after known offenders. The amount of fiddling is, from what I've seen, probably lower than it was during the boom.

Dannyboy83

It was suggesteded we would reach 12% by the end of the year, as things were so bad.
In fact, we've already passed that point@12.5%
(in the linked CSO table, it shows a drop of .1%, this is due to emigration and students doing longer courses)


Graph taken from here

Long-term jobless rate rises by 55pc
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/longterm-jobless--rate-rises-by-55pc-1957014.html

By Ailish O'Hora
Saturday November 28 2009
The number of long-term unemployed spiralled by 55pc in the year to the end of October, according to new figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

More than half of the increase of 31,281 people claiming the dole long term has been since April.

All age groups showed increases in the number of long-term claimants over the six-month period, according to the CSO.

The number of people unemployed for less than one year (short term) accounts for over 80pc of the 412,407 jobless.

Ireland now has the second highest level of unemployment in the eurozone, at 12.5pc. It is topped only by Spain where it stands at 19pc.

The figures released yesterday focus on the live register, and look at duration of unemployment and age.

Meanwhile, figures released earlier this month showed the number of people on the live register dropped by 7,447 in October from September but on an annual basis the number was up by 161,727.

The monthly drop was down to increased emigration and a lower number of young people seeking work in the labour force as many are now extending their studies.

Economists warned yesterday that the worst is yet to come. "The long-term unemployment figure will continue rising in the next couple of years before peaking at 5pc," said National Irish Bank chief economist Ronnie O'Toole.

The long-term jobless rate now stands at 2.6pc. "Prior to the boom, total unemployment was at 4.5pc but these new figures show we have yet to reach the bottom," he added.

The OECD earlier this year warned that job agencies such as FAS, local employment agencies and the Department of Family Affairs did not have sufficient resources and were not properly structured to cope with the rise in unemployment.

A breakdown of the figures shows that the number of older males on the dole increased by 13pc or 12,000 in the six months ending October 2009.

Timebomb

And while the dole queues are dominated by younger men aged between 20 and 24, the number of older unemployed men is also increasing.

Those in short-term unemployment rose by over 70pc in the same period.

The only sector to show a drop in short-term unemployment were females aged under 20 -- a fall of just over 12pc.

Among female claimants, the number of those aged between 20 and 24 increased by 14.7pc.

Fine Gael employment spokesman Leo Varadkar TD said Ireland was on the cusp of a long-term unemployment timebomb.

"Ireland is already grappling with the return of emigration and widespread joblessness," he said.

We were 2nd lowest in the EU.
Now we are 2nd highest in the EU, behind Spain.

Also, the above figures are slightly distorted because some companies have announced lay offs, but they will not occur until January, so they are not recorded
e.g. 150 jobs lost at Option in Cork

skearon

amacachi wrote: »

I wonder if they followed a completely random sample of people and found a high proportion of them to be fiddling the system or if they went after known offenders. The amount of fiddling is, from what I've seen, probably lower than it was during the boom.

And do you have proof to back that statement up?

During the boom when we had a sustained period of full employment, we should have gone after every fit and healthy person who pretended they could not find employment.

Last year approx only €500m was recovered in detected welfare fraud, out of a conservative estate of €2b of actual fraud.

Fiddling has increased, and the very same people who fiddle the system will no doubt be howling the loudest on Joe Duffy's tabloid radio show next week after the budget.

amacachi

skearon wrote: »

And do you have proof to back that statement up?

During the boom when we had a sustained period of full employment, we should have gone after every fit and healthy person who pretended they could not find employment.

Last year approx only €500m was recovered in detected welfare fraud, out of a conservative estate of €2b of actual fraud.

Fiddling has increased, and the very same people who fiddle the system will no doubt be howling the loudest on Joe Duffy's tabloid radio show next week after the budget.

Proof to back up that Primetime's report isn't going to be a very balanced investigation? No, but I think it's the nature of the beast.

As I said, from what I've seen the percentage of those claiming falsely seems to have fallen. Even about a year ago it was actually funny seeing how many people were turning up in vans fresh from a building site and 3/4 people getting out, people I'd been served by in pubs the previous weekend etc., by the summer that had all changed.
I'm sure the amount being cheated from the system is higher overall though, no chance I'll argue against that.

Let's all also remember the unemplyment doesn't include the "sick" and plenty of other areas.
I'll be keeping an ear out next summer for how many students are signing on illegally, trust me.

EDIT: Also the trouble with going after those who were signing on during the boom is that there weren't actually all that many. I can't remember now how the figures went but a helluva lot of those who were signing on were doing so on the short term, usually those classic barflies everyone hates would be on the sick rather than the dole.

skearon

amacachi wrote: »

Proof to back up that Primetime's report isn't going to be a very balanced investigation? No, but I think it's the nature of the beast.

Well personally, I will view the programme first before passing judgement as I have an open mind.

starbelgrade

Bandit12 wrote: »

Think the offical figure last month was 455,000 but i'd say it's nowhere near that. A hell of a lot of people out there claiming dole and working on the side.

And there are also a lot of unemployed who are not on the live register or claiming welfare, even though they are not working.

ghost_ie

skearon wrote: »

Absolutely correct, and finally we have seem to have woken up to this fact. Prime Time's special on Welfare Fraud next Monday will make interesting viewing, and I suspect additional resources will be made available in next week's budget to tackle welfare thieves.

Have we stopped bashing the public sector now and started bashing the unemployed?

cson

starbelgrade wrote: »

And there are also a lot of unemployed who are not on the live register or claiming welfare, even though they are not working.

Which is stupid in my opinion - if you've made your PRSI contributions you're entitled to it and should claim it. It's the people who haven't made PRSI contributions and are long term unemployed (which is to put it nicely, I can think of another word(s) beginning with WA and ending in RS) that are the crux of the problem.

As for the current size of Job Seekers Benefit/Social Welfare, that's an entirely different matter. I'm a firm believer that in most cases €200+ in addition to rent allowance is grossly big and a huge needless cost to the Exchequer. For instance, in my own case I know that if I was to claim Social Welfare it would be outrageous. I'd more than likely be living at home with my family, paying no rent (or perhaps I could and claim rent allowance?!) and being fed pretty much for free leaving me with the guts of €200 per week to do what I wished with. Now that's ridiculous.

As for bashing the unemployed; what are you on about? The poster referenced Welfare Fraud and certainly did not label every Welfare recipient as a thief. Some of them are, some are not.

I do think we've got to get out of this mindset of where a particular group of our society are critiqued, that we are somehow bashing them and landing all of the blame for the current economic woes down on their side. Everyone will and has to suffer, end of.

amacachi

cson wrote: »

Which is stupid in my opinion - if you've made your PRSI contributions you're entitled to it and should claim it. It's the people who haven't made PRSI contributions and are long term unemployed (which is to put it nicely, I can think of another word(s) beginning with WA and ending in RS) that are the crux of the problem.

As for the current size of Job Seekers Benefit/Social Welfare, that's an entirely different matter. I'm a firm believer that in most cases €200+ in addition to rent allowance is grossly big and a huge needless cost to the Exchequer. For instance, in my own case I know that if I was to claim Social Welfare it would be outrageous. I'd more than likely be living at home with my family, paying no rent (or perhaps I could and claim rent allowance?!) and being fed pretty much for free leaving me with the guts of €200 per week to do what I wished with. Now that's ridiculous.

As for bashing the unemployed; what are you on about? The poster referenced Welfare Fraud and certainly did not label every Welfare recipient as a thief. Some of them are, some are not.

I do think we've got to get out of this mindset of where a particular group of our society are critiqued, that we are somehow bashing them and landing all of the blame for the current economic woes down on their side. Everyone will and has to suffer, end of.

Can't get rent allowance if living with your parents and if they're in a position to allow you not to contribute towards the running of the house then I doubt you'd be getting the full 200 a week. In my case I'm getting the equivalent rate as the dole now I've gone back to college, 100 of that is gone straightaway for bus and paying back a loan I had to take out for fees and I usually have to hand up 40ish a week to the ma. The rest has to cover me for the week and I leave at 6.30 most days of the week so it's pretty hard to not spend much on food during the day. Just one example of when the money isn't as amazing as it sounds. Sure I could've just not taken out a loan and stayed away from college and stayed on the dole, would people prefer that? :pac: I get that there are plenty who'd say I shouldn't be supported how I am but that's not what I'm debating here.

If the "bashing" was a reference to me, don't worry I'm not seeing it like that. If you see any of my other posts about cutbacks you'll see I support across-the-board cuts in everything. TBH if the government had the nuts to do it it would probably cause more deflation, lower wages and costs and leave us in a somewhat decent position to bounce back in a few years, instead we're just going to muddle through it and build on ****ty foundations in a few years longer than we could've built on solid ones.

starbelgrade

cson wrote: »

Which is stupid in my opinion - if you've made your PRSI contributions you're entitled to it and should claim it. It's the people who haven't made PRSI contributions and are long term unemployed (which is to put it nicely, I can think of another word(s) beginning with WA and ending in RS) that are the crux of the problem.
.

Very true - a friend of mine has worked since he was 16, lost his job after 20 years of paying PRSI & after a year of getting the dole, he was means tested. The means test is a bizzare, convulted system - as his wife is working, it's calculated on the amount of PRSI that she pays, and some other weird factors - PAYE is not included, nor are the couples' expenditure (which is BASIC considering they have one average wage between them).

After their calculations, they cut off his dole as his wife earns 10cent over the weekly limit (by their bizzarre calculations). 20 years of working & paying into a welfare system means NOTHING. They get NO help (or return) from the state, yet you can sit on your hole & never work, but still get benefits & even a payment towards your rent.

And that's another thing - rent allowance... why are we paying taxes to landlords? The system needs a grass roots overhaul as it's outdated, unfair & costing us far too much & paying too much to those who don't deserve it, don't need it or should have no claim to it.

Klingon Hamlet

The system needs to move from passive to active support; to aid, encourage and focus on re-education, upskilling and reintegration into the workforce.

Fraudsters should be systemmically detected and hauled before the courts to do time: they've robbed money from our pockets. They are thieves. Charge them. And spare the money for those who need it.

Similarly, those who genuinely have no interest or inclination in working again, need to be shown where the door is. To choose not to work is a person's rigt. To do so knowing full-well this ailing state will support their apathy and self-interest is nothing short of despicable, and merely a taste of the poison coursing through this society's psyche. Generations of zero-impulse zombies scratching their behinds and holding out hands for unearned dosh is not what this country should be about, but I see them every day, and trust me, they do not give a damn about our future. They've never needed to.

I am not one of these conservative repressed angry people looking to dish out punishment on the easy targets. Thats the gov. But I'm sick and tired of the millions being wasted on liars, thieves, lazy sods and career dole-ists. It needs to stop.

skearon

ghost_ie wrote: »

Have we stopped bashing the public sector now and started bashing the unemployed?

Wrong, I'm not 'bashing' the unemployed, only those who commit fraud and/or fit and healthy ones who refused to work during a sustained period of full employment

skearon

Klingon Hamlet wrote: »

The system needs to move from passive to active support; to aid, encourage and focus on re-education, upskilling and reintegration into the workforce.

Fraudsters should be systemmically detected and hauled before the courts to do time: they've robbed money from our pockets. They are thieves. Charge them. And spare the money for those who need it.

Similarly, those who genuinely have no interest or inclination in working again, need to be shown where the door is. To choose not to work is a person's rigt. To do so knowing full-well this ailing state will support their apathy and self-interest is nothing short of despicable, and merely a taste of the poison coursing through this society's psyche. Generations of zero-impulse zombies scratching their behinds and holding out hands for unearned dosh is not what this country should be about, but I see them every day, and trust me, they do not give a damn about our future. They've never needed to.

I am not one of these conservative repressed angry people looking to dish out punishment on the easy targets. Thats the gov. But I'm sick and tired of the millions being wasted on liars, thieves, lazy sods and career dole-ists. It needs to stop.

Well thought out post, totally agree with you.

Our society needs a welfare system that acts as a decent safety net, but not one that becomes a way of life

gurramok

Live register is up again by a bit. Guess feck all Fas courses start in Nov.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1202/breaking31.htm

Note: the the number of men signing on the Live Register rose by 1,700 while the number of women decreased by 900.
Women leaving the workforce or just emigrating more?

book smarts

What's the point in training Fas courses for jobs that aren't there? (and probably won't be for the next 20 years)

gurramok

book smarts wrote: »

What's the point in training Fas courses for jobs that aren't there? (and probably won't be for the next 20 years)

Ssshhh, the govt don't like you saying that

The good thing is that people get retrained for relevant skills that will be needed so yeh the age old question will there be jobs for them and the usual collage/school graduates?

GER12

Unemployment is still at 12.5%? I dont think so! There was a significant rise in redundancies. People on courses are not counted as unemployed. It doesnt take in account the numbers who have emmigrated having been made unemployed and also remember access to jobseekers was cut so if you are unemployed and have exhausted your insurance contributions - I wonder what are the stats for the numbers who do not qualify for allowance because they are living with partners who are employed!

I know of one case where a person who was one exam away from an accountancy qualification who was unemployed and was advised by some idiot in FAS to consider doing a level six book-keeping course - for god sake they were working in an accountancy practice - so if they didnt know how to do basic book-keeping by now - hello!

book smarts

gurramok wrote: »

Ssshhh, the govt don't like you saying that

The good thing is that people get retrained for relevant skills that will be needed so yeh the age old question will there be jobs for them and the usual collage/school graduates?

But if the jobs aren't there the skills are neither relevant OR needed. This government seems to have no proper plan for this country's economic future after recession. Vague generalities about "smart economy" or "competitiveness" or other bu11****. Meanwhile just bicker over the scraps while the country feeds on itself, and hope that either FDI or Europe will magically help us at some undetermined date.

Dannyboy83

96% rise in job losses this year

Daithinski

starbelgrade wrote: »

And that's another thing - rent allowance... why are we paying taxes to landlords?

+1 considering all of the empty apartments around the place that that NAMA is the proud owner of. Make these available to the unemployed. Then the government won't have to pay out any rent allowance at all.

Daithinski

gurramok wrote: »

The good thing is that people get retrained for relevant skills that will be needed so yeh the age old question will there be jobs for them and the usual collage/school graduates?

Most college graduates can emigrate with their qualifications, most FAS course qualificaitions aren't worth the paper they are written on, and only good for an expanding economy that is having trouble filling particular semi-skilled jobs. Pretty useless in todays economic climate.

the problem with most FAS courses is that they are educational dead-ends. There is no next step in progressing what you have learned. If you want to do another course you are basically starting from scratch again.

The government should scrap FAS and bring in a city and guilds type system they have in the UK. At least then the unemplyed can build an education from this (Unlike FAS which is more or less busy work that goes nowhere)

Daithinski

gurramok wrote: »

The good thing is that people get retrained for relevant skills that will be needed so yeh the age old question will there be jobs for them and the usual collage/school graduates?

Most college graduates can emigrate with their qualifications, most FAS course qualificaitions aren't worth the paper they are written on, and only good for an expanding economy that is having trouble filling particular semi-skilled jobs. Pretty useless in todays economic climate.

the problem with most FAS courses is that they are educational dead-ends. There is no next step in progressing what you have learned. If you want to do another course you are basically starting from scratch again.

The government should scrap FAS and bring in a city and guilds type system they have in the UK. At least then the unemployed can build an education from this (Unlike FAS which is more or less busy work that goes nowhere)

Daithinski

gurramok wrote: »

The good thing is that people get retrained for relevant skills that will be needed so yeh the age old question will there be jobs for them and the usual collage/school graduates?

Most college graduates can emigrate with their qualifications, most FAS course qualificaitions aren't worth the paper they are written on, and only good for an expanding economy that is having trouble filling particular semi-skilled jobs. Pretty useless in todays economic climate.

the problem with most FAS courses is that they are educational dead-ends. There is no next step in progressing what you have learned. If you want to do another course you are basically starting from scratch again.

The government should scrap FAS and bring in a city and guilds type system they have in the UK. At least then the unemployed have a chance to build an education from this (Unlike FAS which is more or less busy work that goes nowhere)

funnyname

Official figures

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/sasunemprates.htm

However the divisor is too large as it includes people not in the labour force so in fact the true unemployment rate is nearer to 20%.