Future of Stormont and the implications for the Republic?

Yixian

I know this is mostly to do with politics north of the border but obviously there could be lots of implications for the south.

I'm sure you all know already but to put it briefly:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8381484.stm

The DUP agreed a few years ago that at some point policing and justice would be devolved to Stormont from Westminster. The DUP had promised to agree on a date for this but a few months ago made a complete U-turn and now refuse to set a date, despite the British government pledging £1bn to fund the transfer, and are throwing lots of political hurdles in the way of Sinn Féin in order to ensure the devolution of D&P is "years away".

McGuinness a few weeks ago said that there would be "serious consequences" for the power sharing government if a deal isn't set before christmas, and the DUP have basically now ruled that out. Both parties have been in talks with the Irish and British governments, but nobody is budging.

The possibility is then that Sinn Féin/McGuinness will quit government, triggering an assembly election.

What makes this a "crisis" is that that election might not be clearly won by unionists:

In 2007, many hardline loyalists who refused to cooperate with Sinn Féin split from the DUP and formed the TUV. Ever since, the DUP have been competing with the TUV for far right unionists, alienating moderate Protestants in NI and splitting the unionist vote.

Conversely the % of native Irish catholics in NI has been increasing for about 20 years and is "supposed" to tip into an overall majority at some point in the first half of the 21st Century.

Either way, the nationalist vote is now less split than ever with Sinn Féin the "largest party in Northern Ireland".

So if an election is held, there's a pretty good chance that SF will win by a large margin, and maybe even... appoint a first minister.

Who would that first minister be? Martin McGuinness ofc. Do you think it helps that today McGuinness was showen to be the most popular minister in NI[url], by a Telegraph poll?

For all the empty words in the St Andrews Agreement that's not supposed to happen, NI was designed to be a mostly stable basket case that would remain de facto unionist forevermore.

I don't know enough about the various clauses in St Andrews about whether or not Sinn Féin could form a government without a unionist party, probably not, but simply having McGuinness as first minister would spell the end for NI in one way or another: either everybody quits Stormont and the entire political structure of NI collapses (not great timing considering the upsurge in RIRA activity) or the political tug of war for the first time shifts towards nationalism.



Actually in the event McGuinness won first minister, the most likely outcome would be political collapse, and who the hell knows what happens after that...

Any ideas?[/url]

Bottle_of_Smoke

Yes it is very possible McGuinness will be first minister. Robinson's unpopularity may signal TUV will split the unionist vote. However, I don't think it will be as big an issue as you're making out. The deputy first and first minister actually have equal powers.

I'm not so sure the Catholic percentage will overtake and if it does it probably won't be significant enough to win a referendum(I reckon you'd need at least a 70% catholic population). Mixed marriages are happening much more than before and probably lead to a more neutral background. I reckon the union will split for scottish/welsh or english reasons long before northern ireland leaves it through a referendum.

I welcome this, I think an Independent NI is the best long term solution.

Yixian

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Yes it is very possible McGuinness will be first minister. Robinson's unpopularity may signal TUV will split the unionist vote. However, I don't think it will be as big an issue as you're making out. The deputy first and first minister actually have equal powers.

I'm not so sure the Catholic percentage will overtake and if it does it probably won't be significant enough to win a referendum(I reckon you'd need at least a 70% catholic population). Mixed marriages are happening much more than before and probably lead to a more neutral background. I reckon the union will split for scottish/welsh or english reasons long before northern ireland leaves it through a referendum.

I welcome this, I think an Independent NI is the best long term solution.

I agree that a referendum isn't anywhere near happening, and probably this combined with scotland and wales and their independence issues is where any major change in the sovereign status of NI would be triggered.

Unless ofc Stormont does collapse, which is seen as being fairly likely.. it may even happen before McGuinness would get a chance at being elected.

The entire project that was "Northern Ireland" is being shown to have failed, or at least that's what Sinn Féin want to show. With each party having veto over the other and people still refusing to co-operate, and the public still voting for their ethnicity/religion rather than political opinions, the "Stormont" project has failed and if Sinn Féin quit government at xmas the ensuing scramble for control might just pull it all apart.

Either way, violence is inevitably going to increase, everybody knew that from day 1. In the current situation almost nobody is happy - not nationalists, not unionists, not the British. It will flare up and down along with politics for decades upon decades until an actual solution is reached, because nobody even originally intended for the current situation to be a solution, it's peace treaty, it's just on pause.

That's the mistake Britain made, thinking that it could just freeze a collapsing building indefinitely and hope that the force of gravity would at some point decide to simply stop exerting itself on the falling debris.

Even if Sinn Féin were in power alone and McGuinness was first minister, there would be no change in the amount of dissident republican violence, it has nothing to do with Stormont politics, it will exist so long as NI is part of Britain and whoever is in government until that is no longer the case will be their target.

I wonder if vice versa that would be as much the case of loyalist militias?

Lame Lantern

I pretty much agree with your assessment. From the day the Good Friday Agreement was signed it was known that the real measure of the unionist political establishment would be tested when the shoe would be on the other foot. We'll see if they're legitimately committed to peace and equal rights or whether or not they only acceeded to the pressure for an agreement on the basis that their political primacy be assured into the future.

It's also worth pointing out that a belligerent proto-nationalist will likely be prime minister of the UK when this is happening, further emboldening any hardliners on the unionist wing.

Yixian

Lame Lantern wrote: »

I pretty much agree with your assessment. From the day the Good Friday Agreement was signed it was known that the real measure of the unionist political establishment would be tested when the shoe would be on the other foot. We'll see if they're legitimately committed to peace and equal rights or whether or not they only acceeded to the pressure for an agreement on the basis that their political primacy be assured into the future.

It's also worth pointing out that a belligerent proto-nationalist will likely be prime minister of the UK when this is happening, further emboldening any hardliners on the unionist wing.

Hmmmmmm, I'm still wondering what part Britain will play in all of this, the Tories actually have a rather complex relationship with unionism at the moment. The Conservatives would *love* to get rid of Scotland from the union, they have almost no presence there and without the Labour and Lib Dem voters from Scotland they'd be assured almost permanent rule of England and Wales..

On the issue of Welsh nationalism I don't know where they stand, they might think they can win it over, although it to is a traditional Labour stronghold mostly..

And in regards to NI, they're obviously no fans of the DUP, but I suppose Ireland really is where their blue blood and union jacks would come out.



Bringing Scotland into this makes it even more complex. A Tory win will push the Scots further towards independence but probably not enough to leave the union. If they did declare independence that'd be pretty much it for Northern Ireland, in an instant it'd be doomed to a swift dissolution and either be incorporated into the republic or enter some kind of devolved Hong Kong style situation.

The most relevant question re Scotland then is what affect, if any, would a good-but-not-quite-enough independence vote and further devolution have on Northern Ireland? The referendum will be mid-2010 anyway so it will be too late to put any pressure on the P&J transfer issue, that'll have already melted down by then xD



One thing is for sure though, in every country outside England the wheel is slowly turning toward the breakup of the UK, and if the English ever got a chance to vote, the entire thing would be scrapped in an instant... but nobody ever asks the English what they think, poor bastards..

Eliot Rosewater

I think what makes the Scottish independence issue so interesting is that historically a lot of NI protestants are descended from Scottish settlers. Im open to correction here, but if I rightly recall about 50% of the settlers were from England, and 50% from Scotland.

Which brings up the question: are Unionists holding onto Britishness or Englishness? Because if its Britishness then the argument can be made that British Northern Irelanders are as much Scottish as English.

So it would depend on where the Union goes, rather than Scotland. If the Union remains after Scottish Independence then NI will stay with England and Wales, probably. However any significant administrative overhaul would beg the question: where does Northern Ireland actually stand in terms of Britain?


At this stage I would say the optimum solution would be an independent Northern Ireland. It would force the Unionists and Nationalist to get along, having nowhere else to fall back on if they choose to keep bickering.

Yixian

Oh yes yeah I forgot to talk about that, that's the hilarious thing about unionism in NI - the majority, I think, of unionists are descended from Scottish settlers and if Scotland were to leave the UK, these people would have almost no basis left to want to remain part of the UK.

It must be tough enough as it is for unionists in Northern Ireland, the world at large thinks of the republic of Ireland when it thinks of "Ireland", when it thinks of Irish culture it thinks of celtic mythology and Irish music and dancing etc. all of which these guys don't associate with at all.

And yet they are not really British either, the Brits would much rather wipe their hands of the whole thing. Even while the DUP is flying the union jack and declaring loyalty to the UK, the British government is telling them to take the £1bn, take police and justice and leave us alone!

God.. such a joke.. and I put the blame squarely on Michael Collins shoulders.


Ayway, Project Ulster is on it's way out along with the rest of the UK, it's just a matter of when. The difference is whereas 5 years ago that seemed 100 years away, now it feels like it could be a lot closer.

Interesting times..

johnathan woss

An interesting thread but a more worrying question is:

What happens if GB goes bankrupt and can't keep the basket case afloat any longer ?

God knows we have enough problems of our own.

Yixian

Ireland is in a better long term economic position than the UK. I've always thought Dublin and Belfast would make a killer combo. Obviously the Republica would be in no state to reabsorb the north at the moment, but I don't have too many worries about the future of the ROI unless FF/FG/whoever is in charge for the next few elections really *really* screws things up.

Most parties seems to realise that the old game is up now and all of them basically have a plan to switch to a knowledge economy. NAMA will probably just about work and it looks like the unions are strong enough to prevent a Thatcher style destruction of public services. Add to that the Spirit of Ireland project and I don't see why in another 5-10 years Ireland couldn't be enjoying another, more sustainable boom.. just has to play it's card right.

Britain on the other hand already put all it's eggs in the banking basket, is in more debt than most people could possibly imagine and is running out of North Sea Oil. Even if they survive their next dip into recession, which is just a year or so away, they're on a serious downward spiral unless they really restructure the entire economy.

gurramok

Basically what it needs is the British govt to get the message to the Unionist hardliners that 'we are paying for NI and you better get your act together and compromise on running the administration of the place' OR else.

Paisley and Robinson got the message(both indicated powersharing was the lesser of two evils in words like that) hence the powersharing, peace and prosperity that came.

Paul4As

Yixian wrote: »

It must be tough enough as it is for unionists in Northern Ireland, the world at large thinks of the republic of Ireland when it thinks of "Ireland", when it thinks of Irish culture it thinks of celtic mythology and Irish music and dancing etc. all of which these guys don't associate with at all.

As someone who comes from Northern Ireland and who is unionist...I love traditional irish music...nothing better than listening to talented Irish musicians with a pint of Bulmers in the hand...I also find irish dancing hugely entertaining...I have no problems with people in Spain or Portugal while I'm holidaying there believing I'm from Ireland (as in the Republic)...it is not for me to fill them in on the politics which separates the Island!!! It is certainly not "tough" being labelled as Irish!!! As long I myself know who and where I'm from!!!
And by the way...Unionists have their own music which some of the world already knows...many tourists seem to enjoy and take in the Twelfth of July...never saw or heard so many of them taking in Orangefest this year!!! The shops in Belfast city centre now open on the 12th because of the influx of tourists which is brilliant!!!
My wife who is from Mayo is always plaguing me to take her to see "the bands!!!"

Paul4As

Yixian wrote: »

And yet they are not really British either

The above quote is with reference to Unionists.

I'm a bit baffled...I always thought that the Good Friday Agreement allowed anybody in Northern Ireland to be able to call themselves British or Irish!!!

Edit: My political knowledge isn't that good!!! Aparently you were able to call yourself Irish or British before the GFA!!!

getz

Yixian wrote: »

Ireland is in a better long term economic position than the UK. I've always thought Dublin and Belfast would make a killer combo. Obviously the Republica would be in no state to reabsorb the north at the moment, but I don't have too many worries about the future of the ROI unless FF/FG/whoever is in charge for the next few elections really *really* screws things up.

Most parties seems to realise that the old game is up now and all of them basically have a plan to switch to a knowledge economy. NAMA will probably just about work and it looks like the unions are strong enough to prevent a Thatcher style destruction of public services. Add to that the Spirit of Ireland project and I don't see why in another 5-10 years Ireland couldn't be enjoying another, more sustainable boom.. just has to play it's card right.

Britain on the other hand already put all it's eggs in the banking basket, is in more debt than most people could possibly imagine and is running out of North Sea Oil. Even if they survive their next dip into recession, which is just a year or so away, they're on a serious downward spiral unless they really restructure the entire economy.

you have never been so wrong

BennyLava

The question is, in a referendum would the majority of "nationalists" vote for union with the republic.

It's a line been fed by SF and others that all catholics/nationalists want to be part of a united Ireland,
looking at the state of things down here, granted it's better than Northern Ireland (from a southern point of view), would a majority of Northern Nationalists want Dublin rule

getz

BennyLava wrote: »

The question is, in a referendum would the majority of "nationalists" vote for union with the republic.

It's a line been fed by SF and others that all catholics/nationalists want to be part of a united Ireland,
looking at the state of things down here, granted it's better than Northern Ireland (from a southern point of view), would a majority of Northern Nationalists want Dublin rule

i would have a doubt because of the amount of money comming in from london ,that keeps the NHS and all the jobs that entails,keeping northern ireland is a expensive business,

Yixian

In a given population the majority will always vote to stay the same, rather than change, unless the situation is pretty serious. You might get a majority if you asked "if you could go back in time and change history so all Ireland today was united", but in a referendum? Not at the moment no, not even nearly.

getz why do you disagree that Ireland has every opportunity to pull out of recession and become successful again? If it plays it's cards right, it can.

Lame Lantern

Yixian wrote: »

getz why do you disagree that Ireland has every opportunity to pull out of recession and become successful again? If it plays it's cards right, it can.

This is boards.ie, pragmatism always gives way to blanket pessimism.:D

getz

Yixian wrote: »

In a given population the majority will always vote to stay the same, rather than change, unless the situation is pretty serious. You might get a majority if you asked "if you could go back in time and change history so all Ireland today was united", but in a referendum? Not at the moment no, not even nearly.

getz why do you disagree that Ireland has every opportunity to pull out of recession and become successful again? If it plays it's cards right, it can.

every time i hear we should have a united ireland,/one country,what you are thinking is ,a united ireland under the republics rule book,if i was a unionist and said a united ireland within the british commonwealth and without the catholic church running schools and health service,you to would say no-way. to have a united ireland changes will have to be made ,on both sides,as far as the doom and gloom in business, both ireland and the UK will come out of it within a couple of years,its nothing new

weepee

People up here view with amazement and, dare I say it, some sadness, at the droves of cars virtually queueing up to come shopping.
As someone who lived in Louth for awhile I can understand this shopping spree. Prices for even everyday goods is simply beyond the reach of low paid workers and the unemployed. Everyday I hear folks saying ''I dont know how anyone can afford to live down south at present''.
The Murphy Report emphasises the need to break the connection between church and state, something Unionists have always been object able to.
The impression that has aspired where a certain section of the wealthy, with their political connections got away with flouting laws, corruption on a scale the mafia would have been proud of, and a very poorly ran economy, which after years of boom, has little left to show for it, all this puts unity on the back burner.

As has been stated, few if any, would desire a 32 county jurisdiction ran by these same people who have shown they were/are unable to control the financial situation in the good times, never mind now in the bad times.

Stormont, and SF are becoming increasingly frustrated with within the nationalist community. It is being seen for exactly what it is, a talking shop, with a 'jobs for the boys' mentality. However,as the alternative is going back to the dark days, people bite they're lip and say nothing.

bk

getz wrote: »

if i was a unionist and said a united ireland within the british commonwealth and without the catholic church running schools and health service,you to would say no-way.

Don't worry most Irish people hate the Catholic church as much as Unionists these days. In reality the Catholic Church has little or no influence over Irish life and institutions any more.

If NI did join with the Republic in the morning, nothing would change with how NI schools and hospitals were run, it is a red herring.

getz

bk wrote: »

Don't worry most Irish people hate the Catholic church as much as Unionists these days. In reality the Catholic Church has little or no influence over Irish life and institutions any more.

If NI did join with the Republic in the morning, nothing would change with how NI schools and hospitals were run, it is a red herring.

as a outsider all i seem to see on the news,is [from irish media]is how the church has been able to manipulate the goverment and law makers into covering up abuse, so its very hard for me to yet believe they still havent their fingers controlling it[the recent move on the blasphemy law comes to mind]mind you if i lived in the republic i would want to keep as far away as i could from the northern problem,it will only end in tears .

junder

bk wrote: »

Don't worry most Irish people hate the Catholic church as much as Unionists these days. In reality the Catholic Church has little or no influence over Irish life and institutions any more.

If NI did join with the Republic in the morning, nothing would change with how NI schools and hospitals were run, it is a red herring.

If thats is the case why is it the catholic church has been allowed to get away with covering up the abuse of 100's if not 1000's of children with the state in many cases turning a blind eye. You would have thought that if the catholic churchs influnce was now so small that this abuse would have been delt with years ago by the states courts and not left in the hands of the catholic church to simply move the gulity priest to another area

DublinDes

junder wrote: »

If thats is the case why is it the catholic church has been allowed to get away with covering up the abuse of 100's if not 1000's of children with the state in many cases turning a blind eye. You would have thought that if the catholic churchs influnce was now so small that this abuse would have been delt with years ago by the states courts and not left in the hands of the catholic church to simply move the gulity priest to another area

Well I would have thought that state connievnce in clerical sex abuse in the south is hopefully a thing of the past. Just like the British unionist state's connievnce in RUC and UDR murders and shootings along with blatant anti Catholic discrimination is hopefully a thing of the past.

junder

DublinDes wrote: »

Well I would have thought that state connievnce in clerical sex abuse in the south is hopefully a thing of the past. Just like the British unionist state's connievnce in RUC and UDR murders and shootings along with blatant anti Catholic discrimination is hopefully a thing of the past.

this is not about alleged collusion, after all does alleged british collusion mean that the RoI state connievence with the catholic church is some how justified?

LordSutch

Yixian wrote: »

Bringing Scotland into this makes it even more complex. A Tory win will push the Scots further towards independence but probably not enough to leave the union. If they did declare independence that'd be pretty much it for Northern Ireland, in an instant it'd be doomed to a swift dissolution and either be incorporated into the republic or enter some kind of devolved Hong Kong style situation.

One thing is for sure though, in every country outside England the wheel is slowly turning toward the breakup of the UK, and if the English ever got a chance to vote, the entire thing would be scrapped in an instant... but nobody ever asks the English what they think, poor bastards..

Personally I think Scotland is far closer to leaving the UK than Northern Ireland, but even in Scotlands case the percentage of those wishing to leave the Union is only running at about 30% in favour, so in reality not much chance of NI leaving the UK anytime soon, if ever ?

Yixian

Camelot wrote: »

Personally I think Scotland is far closer to leaving the UK than Northern Ireland, but even in Scotlands case the percentage of those wishing to leave the Union is only running at about 30% in favour, so in reality not much chance of NI leaving the UK anytime soon ...................

Hypothetically, If Scotland did leave the UK, it might (just might) trigger the full break-up of the UK, including the exit of 'Northern Ireland', which might even even become part of a new 'Scottish-Northern Hiberno' Union (seeing as Northern Ireland has such close cultural links with Scotland).

Well that theory is as good as any other, right?

Naaah, sorry but I don't buy the latter ever happening. If NI were to leave the UK, it's too small to exist independently, it'd probably act like a devolved region of the RoI.

Obviously neither Scotland nor NI are going to be too keen to change their national statuses any time soon - if you're in an economic boom you don't want to ruin it by doing anything radical, if you're in an economic bust you're too afraid to make the situation even worse.

Economic rules all and only when there is clearly a major benefit to the change and major drawbacks to staying the same will actual political/national issues be tested. In that situation, were there to be a referendum in NI it's hard to say who'd win, but in Scotland you pretty much get a landslide vote to leave the UK, particularly if the Tories were in power down south.

Britain is notorious for poorly investing outside of London. The entire country is funded almost entirely from Canary Wharf and North Sea oil - the latter is running out and then you're pretty much left with the Square Mile banking sector and that's it. The rest of England doesn't get much of a look in, let alone Scotland, let alone Northern Ireland.

On the other hand were NI to join the RoI, whilst times are tough atm, both sides of the border, and you wouldn't expect an easy transition phase, in the long run Belfast would go from being a neglected periphery to the second most important city in a nation that punches well above it's weight economically (and politically really) - if I was a non-biased resident of NI, I'd probably want to bite the bullet and reunite for the long term opportunities.

This is coming from someone who grew up in Nottingham, statistically the English city with the 2nd highest GDP, that has seen barely any development whatsoever in 20 years whilst almost all the investment and projects are exclusively in the South East and London. Don't be fooled by Newcastle Quayside and Exchange Square, as far as Westminster is concerned the UK = London.

Dannyboy83

Very enjoyable read Yixian.

Who would you like to see in power in the UK at the next GE?
The UK appear to have unsustainable debt, £800billion worth.........do you believe the tories would try to reduce it, thatcher style?
A default is on the cards for the UK, surely this will result in a Tory victory?



Do you believe the UK(England/Wales/NI) would seek to move into the EMU?
IIRC, the IMF were in the UK in '71

In the event that happens, out of 10, what do you believe is the possibility of Scottish Independance?

What about the RBS issue?

Also, wouldn't Scotland be able to avail of massive funding from the EU as a new independent?

Yixian

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Very enjoyable read Yixian.

Who would you like to see in power in the UK at the next GE?
The UK appear to have unsustainable debt, £800billion worth.........do you believe the tories would try to reduce it, thatcher style?
A default is on the cards for the UK, surely this will result in a Tory victory?

Do you believe the UK(England/Wales/NI) would seek to move into the EMU?
IIRC, the IMF were in the UK in '71

In the event that happens, out of 10, what do you believe is the possibility of Scottish Independance?

What about the RBS issue?

Also, wouldn't Scotland be able to avail of massive funding from the EU as a new independent?

Yep, the UK is in more debt than anyone seems to realise. Ireland may have gambled big time on property and mostly lost, but the UK has for the last few decades made itself almost completely reliant on banking and financial services, and there was as little regulation there as there was in Ireland and now they have almost no industry to fall back on as Canary Wharf racks up billions upon billions in debt.

The benefits of Ireland being a small nation mean that new policies and initiatives can quickly be implemented on a national level. If the government really does push ahead with a knowledge economy things can get going quickly.

Britain is slow and lumbering. The tories obliterated production on the island and Labour poured all their efforts into turning London into a financial centre. There's obviously a lot of research in the UK but they're nowhere near being able to sustain themselves on a knowledge economy or quickly make themselves energy independent like Ireland can.

I currently live in the UK but am planning to move to Ireland ~2016. I'm looking at the bright side of a Tory win in the UK, there's not much left of trains and education to ravage (but health care will probably be slowly privatised) and that's a shame, but it'll certainly push Scotland and Wales further from the UK and if Scotland ever did leave the UK there would be huge pressure in NI to do the same, and I think reunification of Ireland would be the best thing for the Irish economy in the long run.

If Scotland declared independence then there'd probably be a legal battle with what was left of the UK for what is left of north sea oil which would probably drag on, but the EU would certainly pour some €€€ into the new nation and the SNP have already said that their vision for an independent Scotland is a small, knowledge economy switching to the highest % of renewable energy possible and linking with Ireland and Scandinavia to form a band across northern Europe of similar such nations who can cooperate economically and politically.


As for the economic future of Britain I really don't know when all their debt will finally catch up with them, they can't be far off it at this stage, they're predicted to double dip into recession next year and it might be then that the freefall really begins and maybe at that stage the IMF would have to intervene. The question is if quantitative easing manages to keep them going by a thread until the next recession, if it does they'll plod along as usual making the same old mistakes I'm sure, if not then hyperinflation will pretty much destroy the £ as an international reserve currency and a lost decade begins.

junder

and how would a civil war be good for the economy of the RoI, as things stand the mindset of the majorty of the unionist community is not to accept a united Ireland. So if one was to happen within the foreseeable future then expect wide spread civil unrest. Its going to take several generations of relative peace in order for the mindsets of the populations of northern ireland to return to a non conflict mindset until then arguments about economics benfits and this that and the other mean nothing.

LordSutch

Yixian wrote: »

I currently live in the UK but am planning to move to Ireland ~2016 ...........

Just curious (re your insight into this Thread), what region of the UK do you currently live in?
England, NI, Scotland or Wales?

Paul4As

Yixian wrote: »

Yep, the UK is in more debt than anyone seems to realise. Ireland may have gambled big time on property and mostly lost, but the UK has for the last few decades made itself almost completely reliant on banking and financial services, and there was as little regulation there as there was in Ireland and now they have almost no industry to fall back on as Canary Wharf racks up billions upon billions in debt.

The benefits of Ireland being a small nation mean that new policies and initiatives can quickly be implemented on a national level. If the government really does push ahead with a knowledge economy things can get going quickly.

Britain is slow and lumbering. The tories obliterated production on the island and Labour poured all their efforts into turning London into a financial centre. There's obviously a lot of research in the UK but they're nowhere near being able to sustain themselves on a knowledge economy or quickly make themselves energy independent like Ireland can.

I currently live in the UK but am planning to move to Ireland ~2016. I'm looking at the bright side of a Tory win in the UK, there's not much left of trains and education to ravage (but health care will probably be slowly privatised) and that's a shame, but it'll certainly push Scotland and Wales further from the UK and if Scotland ever did leave the UK there would be huge pressure in NI to do the same, and I think reunification of Ireland would be the best thing for the Irish economy in the long run.

If Scotland declared independence then there'd probably be a legal battle with what was left of the UK for what is left of north sea oil which would probably drag on, but the EU would certainly pour some €€€ into the new nation and the SNP have already said that their vision for an independent Scotland is a small, knowledge economy switching to the highest % of renewable energy possible and linking with Ireland and Scandinavia to form a band across northern Europe of similar such nations who can cooperate economically and politically.


As for the economic future of Britain I really don't know when all their debt will finally catch up with them, they can't be far off it at this stage, they're predicted to double dip into recession next year and it might be then that the freefall really begins and maybe at that stage the IMF would have to intervene. The question is if quantitative easing manages to keep them going by a thread until the next recession, if it does they'll plod along as usual making the same old mistakes I'm sure, if not then hyperinflation will pretty much destroy the £ as an international reserve currency and a lost decade begins.

From the above review of the economic situation of the UK compared to the Republic of Ireland...I wonder why you still live in the UK???
Would it not be better to jump ship now before the UK eventually sinks???The UK with probably be on the ocean bed by 2016!!!
As for the fact that with Ireland being such a small country new policies and initiatives can be quickly implemented on a national level....if you don't have the money, then you can't implement anything!!!
I'm in Mayo most weekends...job-wise it is only getting worse there...the transport network and development of towns like Ballina is non-existant!!! Maybe when you're outside Dublin you can be neglected in Ireland??? I don't know!!!
I don't think anybody knows the full story of UK and Irish debt...do you believe the info governments tell you???...I don't!!!

Yixian

Paul4As wrote: »

From the above review of the economic situation of the UK compared to the Republic of Ireland...I wonder why you still live in the UK???
Would it not be better to jump ship now before the UK eventually sinks???The UK with probably be on the ocean bed by 2016!!!
As for the fact that with Ireland being such a small country new policies and initiatives can be quickly implemented on a national level....if you don't have the money, then you can't implement anything!!!
I'm in Mayo most weekends...job-wise it is only getting worse there...the transport network and development of towns like Ballina is non-existant!!! Maybe when you're outside Dublin you can be neglected in Ireland??? I don't know!!!
I don't think anybody knows the full story of UK and Irish debt...do you believe the info governments tell you???...I don't!!!

I am out of here as soon as I finish studying, but that's not to say the UK isn't a decent country, it's got plenty going for it and plenty going against it like anywhere else in Europe. I don't think it's going to necessarily be on the sea bed by 2016 and life for the average Brit isn't going to be impoverished by any means, but the money in Britain is pretty much siphoned directly into finance, not much effort is put into anywhere outside of London and it just can't sustain it's bloated size as the banking sector and North Sea oil continue to decline..

.. There's not much to get excited about the UK, let's put it that way.

Ireland on the other hand does have a ton of debt, but let's put it in perspective, the cuts in this latest budget a 4billion euro, whereas the UK is taking 29billion *pounds* out of it's public services and that's not even considered a particularly large slash.

The relative size of Ireland does have it's advantages, there's no doubt about it. Initiatives like the Spirit of Ireland wouldn't get anywhere in Britain, it's too slow and lumbering. Granted that require Irish politicians to see a good idea when it's in front of them, which up until now has happened an awful lot, but don't forget the Irish state is but 100 years old and new to prosperity, and for all the bollocks that's gone on in the last 20 years, believe me, your politicians are learning a lot faster than British ones. This is your first big recession, Britain has lost count and the cause of it's busts have been more or less the same for the last 30 years but it's not in the slightest bit interested in doing anything about it.

All this talk of a knowledge economy and energy independent Ireland might not come to fruition, but it's the sort of thing nobody even suggests in the UK.

Camelot wrote: »

Just curious (re your insight into this Thread), what region of the UK do you currently live in?
England, NI, Scotland or Wales?

England.

ardmaj

Yixian wrote: »

I know this is mostly to do with politics north of the border but obviously there could be lots of implications for the south.

I'm sure you all know already but to put it briefly:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8381484.stm

The DUP agreed a few years ago that at some point policing and justice would be devolved to Stormont from Westminster. The DUP had promised to agree on a date for this but a few months ago made a complete U-turn and now refuse to set a date, despite the British government pledging £1bn to fund the transfer, and are throwing lots of political hurdles in the way of Sinn Féin in order to ensure the devolution of D&P is "years away".

McGuinness a few weeks ago said that there would be "serious consequences" for the power sharing government if a deal isn't set before christmas, and the DUP have basically now ruled that out. Both parties have been in talks with the Irish and British governments, but nobody is budging.

The possibility is then that Sinn Féin/McGuinness will quit government, triggering an assembly election.

What makes this a "crisis" is that that election might not be clearly won by unionists:

In 2007, many hardline loyalists who refused to cooperate with Sinn Féin split from the DUP and formed the TUV. Ever since, the DUP have been competing with the TUV for far right unionists, alienating moderate Protestants in NI and splitting the unionist vote.

Conversely the % of native Irish catholics in NI has been increasing for about 20 years and is "supposed" to tip into an overall majority at some point in the first half of the 21st Century.

Either way, the nationalist vote is now less split than ever with Sinn Féin the "largest party in Northern Ireland".

So if an election is held, there's a pretty good chance that SF will win by a large margin, and maybe even... appoint a first minister.

Who would that first minister be? Martin McGuinness ofc. Do you think it helps that today McGuinness was showen to be the most popular minister in NI[url], by a Telegraph poll?

For all the empty words in the St Andrews Agreement that's not supposed to happen, NI was designed to be a mostly stable basket case that would remain de facto unionist forevermore.

I don't know enough about the various clauses in St Andrews about whether or not Sinn Féin could form a government without a unionist party, probably not, but simply having McGuinness as first minister would spell the end for NI in one way or another: either everybody quits Stormont and the entire political structure of NI collapses (not great timing considering the upsurge in RIRA activity) or the political tug of war for the first time shifts towards nationalism.



Actually in the event McGuinness won first minister, the most likely outcome would be political collapse, and who the hell knows what happens after that...

Any ideas?[/url]

Yixian..... There won't be an assembly election if deadlock continues over P&J. The situation will be forestalled by suspension by NIO, to keep shinners on board.[in spite of sf putting in SAA the poroviso perventing suspension after mandelson stunt a few years ago.] this can be got over by a small bit of adjustment oif documents at westminster.
As you say, in an eventual assembly election, SF and Marty would come out on top, but this will not lead to Marty being first minister in anything but name only, since no unionist [DUP or UUP] would risk political suicide by going into such an administration. So what will happen is that local government and devolution will be dead in the water since unionists haven't yet learned anything from the end of Stormont in '72, so they will keep coming back to the table to find less on it for them.
As far as unionists are concerned, NI stopped being 'their wee country' when Ted Heath dissolved their orange police state in '72. They have been dealing with a state of diminishing returns ever since as the demographics go further and further against them. brilliant isn't it?

Yixian

ardmaj wrote: »

brilliant isn't it?

Conceptually, yes.

But must suck for Norners on both sides, in the short term at least.

We have to admit we outside of NI kinda treat the whole thing like a spectator sport

ardmaj

Yixian wrote: »

Conceptually, yes.

But must suck for Norners on both sides, in the short term at least.

We have to admit we outside of NI kinda treat the whole thing like a spectator sport

there are surely spectator sports more enjoyable than following our little quarrel, unless in a spirit of schadenfreude i suppose. but gloating is unbecoming.

Yixian

ardmaj wrote: »

there are surely spectator sports more enjoyable than following our little quarrel, unless in a spirit of schadenfreude i suppose. but gloating is unbecoming.

It's not so much schadenfreude as it is comforting to know that unionism really is as bad as we wanted it to be.

dlofnep

SF have tried hard to make this process work. They supported policing, with the intention that the powers would be devolved. This has not yet happened, and SF is now in between a rock and a hard place. They lost quite a substantial amount of supporters, and pillars of the grass roots movement over the policing issue.

I can tell you first hand that inequality still exists in the PSNI, and that they have a long way to go before they are a truly accountable police force. Devolution assists with this process. So many of the old RUC still exists within the PSNI, which is why devolution is such a vital process.

The DUP appeared to be moving in the right direction with Paisley (even If I don't like him as a person, or for his politics, it was a bold move by him) - but since Robinson took over - they have gone backwards. This is probably due to the TUV gaining ground.

The DUP cannot have their cake and eat it. They must live up to their side of the deal, and if they can't - then it is entirely their fault if the process fails.

Yixian

dlofnep wrote: »

SF have tried hard to make this process work. They supported policing, with the intention that the powers would be devolved. This has not yet happened, and SF is now in between a rock and a hard place. They lost quite a substantial amount of supporters, and pillars of the grass roots movement over the policing issue.

I can tell you first hand that inequality still exists in the PSNI, and that they have a long way to go before they are a truly accountable police force. Devolution assists with this process. So many of the old RUC still exists within the PSNI, which is why devolution is such a vital process.

The DUP appeared to be moving in the right direction with Paisley (even If I don't like him as a person, or for his politics, it was a bold move by him) - but since Robinson took over - they have gone backwards. This is probably due to the TUV gaining ground.

The DUP cannot have their cake and eat it. They must live up to their side of the deal, and if they can't - then it is entirely their fault if the process fails.

And let's not forget that the current situation is not a compromise. A compromise would be a Northern Ireland that is jointly a part of the UK and Ireland, or part of neither - as it stands NI is still solely part of the UK and so the unionists are already in a position of unfair advantage, and are unwilling to even let up an inch from that.

It will be their downfall.

ardmaj

dlofnep wrote: »

SF have tried hard to make this process work. They supported policing, with the intention that the powers would be devolved. This has not yet happened, and SF is now in between a rock and a hard place. They lost quite a substantial amount of supporters, and pillars of the grass roots movement over the policing issue.

I can tell you first hand that inequality still exists in the PSNI, and that they have a long way to go before they are a truly accountable police force. Devolution assists with this process. So many of the old RUC still exists within the PSNI, which is why devolution is such a vital process.

The DUP appeared to be moving in the right direction with Paisley (even If I don't like him as a person, or for his politics, it was a bold move by him) - but since Robinson took over - they have gone backwards. This is probably due to the TUV gaining ground.

The DUP cannot have their cake and eat it. They must live up to their side of the deal, and if they can't - then it is entirely their fault if the process fails.

diofnep. The DUP are not bothered about little concerns like democracy, because, for them, NI was invented for unionists, so it must be re-gerrymandered until the margins suit them. So by 2020, belfast council will reach out as far as rasharkin in the west, and newry in the south.

Yixian

So Cowen is meeting yet again today with NI ministers..

Does anything actually come out of these meetings? It just seems like one big pretence from Britain and Ireland to give the impression that either country actually cares if the Assembly collapses, neither of them are giving either side any incentive to alter position, other than Britain's £1bn promise if J&P is devolved within a reasonable timeframe.

The DUP are definitely not going to meet McGuinness' demands by Christmas so it really is a ticking timebomb now. I'm not sure people realise quite how serious a situation this is.

The unionists have yet again proven they cannot cooperate under any circumstances, and with a new IRA group forming on one side and the TUV on the other, the failure of institution in the six counties could ignite a really nasty situation.

The only possibly scenario in which there isn't a radical change in the status of NI is if there is an election and a unionist party wins outright - which is almost impossible.

A republican first minister = Assembly collapse = direct rule from London = violence and chaos etc.

Direct rule from London and Dublin then becomes the only answer?

Would NI be considered part of the UK in that case? Would it's sovereign status have to change?

A united Ireland is a lot closer from the point of NI being separate from both nations than it is as part of the UK. The benefits have to be stacked incredibly high in favour of change for change to win in any referendum, people almost always stick with the evil they know, but if NI was independent and the vote was to join either the UK, or the Republic, or neither - well that's different.

Hurry up xmas though, this shiz is going on too long, enough phoney "meetings" that yield nothing.



Also, regarding the problem the Republic would have financing the 6 counties, perhaps the US could play a financial role?

dlofnep

I agree. The failure of Stormont has some serious implications. If it fails, voters might become disenfranchised with the system, and turn to other more radical groups which could see a return of widescale violence in the north. I think most people would absolutely prefer a peaceful compromise, however - if they do not see progress with the political system, then certain people will compromise no further.

I'm not sure if the DUP are aware of these implications, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and suggest that they do. The situation will be alot worse for everyone if the DUP does not agree on devolution. Are they really that much against accountable and balanced justice? It sure looks like it. They see that their grip on politics in the north is weakening, and with the latest results of SF in elections - they are scared of the real possibility of SF becoming the largest party in the north.

The British and Irish governments need to put pressure on them to move forward with this process, or it's dead in the water along with the GFA and then we're back to square one.

Yixian

DUP could not care less about what happens a year from now, they are only concerned with lying in the path of SF and TUV.

dlofnep

Oh they care, just so long as it coincides with their new plans. They are obviously trying to win back votes from the TUV, but at the expense of progress. They don't have the backbone to enter power-sharing. It's a huge shame, because for all of his flaws - they were making some slight progress with Paisley.

rcunning03

Yixian wrote: »

Ireland is in a better long term economic position than the UK. I've always thought Dublin and Belfast would make a killer combo. Obviously the Republica would be in no state to reabsorb the north at the moment, but I don't have too many worries about the future of the ROI unless FF/FG/whoever is in charge for the next few elections really *really* screws things up.

Most parties seems to realise that the old game is up now and all of them basically have a plan to switch to a knowledge economy. NAMA will probably just about work and it looks like the unions are strong enough to prevent a Thatcher style destruction of public services. Add to that the Spirit of Ireland project and I don't see why in another 5-10 years Ireland couldn't be enjoying another, more sustainable boom.. just has to play it's card right.

Britain on the other hand already put all it's eggs in the banking basket, is in more debt than most people could possibly imagine and is running out of North Sea Oil. Even if they survive their next dip into recession, which is just a year or so away, they're on a serious downward spiral unless they really restructure the entire economy.

Our public defiecit is higher than the UK's and both our defecits are higher than Greece. Thatcher and her break up of the unions was the only thing that stopped Britain completely going down the sink after the IMF was brought in in the 70's. We need a Thatcher now cause the unions and public sector will bring this country to it's knees.

walrusgumble

the worring question is, how will fine gael (biggest haters of all things sinn fein) and Conversatives (apparently pledging again with UUP) deal with things? would you have belief with Enda?

Cowen and Browne don't seem too bothered about the north.

Sadly, as one said, violence is invetiable (ie Real IRA as oppose to the Provo's)

The sooner the economies get back on track, hopefully people will be too busy about improving their communities and making cross boarder co-operation inticing and unavoidable

ardmaj

Yixian wrote: »

I know this is mostly to do with politics north of the border but obviously there could be lots of implications for the south.

I'm sure you all know already but to put it briefly:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8381484.stm

The DUP agreed a few years ago that at some point policing and justice would be devolved to Stormont from Westminster. The DUP had promised to agree on a date for this but a few months ago made a complete U-turn and now refuse to set a date, despite the British government pledging £1bn to fund the transfer, and are throwing lots of political hurdles in the way of Sinn Féin in order to ensure the devolution of D&P is "years away".

McGuinness a few weeks ago said that there would be "serious consequences" for the power sharing government if a deal isn't set before christmas, and the DUP have basically now ruled that out. Both parties have been in talks with the Irish and British governments, but nobody is budging.

The possibility is then that Sinn Féin/McGuinness will quit government, triggering an assembly election.

What makes this a "crisis" is that that election might not be clearly won by unionists:

In 2007, many hardline loyalists who refused to cooperate with Sinn Féin split from the DUP and formed the TUV. Ever since, the DUP have been competing with the TUV for far right unionists, alienating moderate Protestants in NI and splitting the unionist vote.

Conversely the % of native Irish catholics in NI has been increasing for about 20 years and is "supposed" to tip into an overall majority at some point in the first half of the 21st Century.

Either way, the nationalist vote is now less split than ever with Sinn Féin the "largest party in Northern Ireland".

So if an election is held, there's a pretty good chance that SF will win by a large margin, and maybe even... appoint a first minister.

Who would that first minister be? Martin McGuinness ofc. Do you think it helps that today McGuinness was showen to be the most popular minister in NI[url], by a Telegraph poll?

For all the empty words in the St Andrews Agreement that's not supposed to happen, NI was designed to be a mostly stable basket case that would remain de facto unionist forevermore.

I don't know enough about the various clauses in St Andrews about whether or not Sinn Féin could form a government without a unionist party, probably not, but simply having McGuinness as first minister would spell the end for NI in one way or another: either everybody quits Stormont and the entire political structure of NI collapses (not great timing considering the upsurge in RIRA activity) or the political tug of war for the first time shifts towards nationalism.



Actually in the event McGuinness won first minister, the most likely outcome would be political collapse, and who the hell knows what happens after that...

Any ideas?[/quote]
That seems to me, as a Co. Derry man who was in his last year at school when they introduced internment in 1971, as an astute and concise reading/summary of things political here. I can't improve on it. The DUP would dearly love to be sharing with SDLP but unionists had there chance in 1974 for that, and blew it spectacularly with that strike the same year, plunging 'their wee country 'to the point of irreversible infrastructural collapse. This is why nationalist voters are putting SF up to them. It's that or nothing.
Every time they refused a deal in the last 35 years, unionists have come back to the table to find less on it for them. And do they learn? NO.[/url]

getz

Yixian wrote: »

And let's not forget that the current situation is not a compromise. A compromise would be a Northern Ireland that is jointly a part of the UK and Ireland, or part of neither - as it stands NI is still solely part of the UK and so the unionists are already in a position of unfair advantage, and are unwilling to even let up an inch from that.

It will be their downfall.

i agree it will be a big problem for both sides [even the south] any future for northern ireland will be dependent on money from the rest of the UK,without it it would meen a collapse of the economy,mass unemployment[a large amount of them employed by the state]the republic has its own problems trying to meet its own EU commitments as the handouts have now stopped,when it comes down to the final furlong and both sides realize the implications,a agreement will be reached,