How long do you think it will be until we see recovery in Ireland?

Dannyboy83

How long do you think it will be until we see recovery in Ireland?
What do you base this on?
How could we speed up recovery?

tunney

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

How long do you think it will be until we see recovery in Ireland?
What do you base this on?
How could we speed up recovery?

If you mean recovery as in a return to the way it was 5 years ago. Never.
If you mean recovery as in not as much unemployment and budgets that aren't all bad news - I'd reckon about 10 years.

hobochris

I'm guessing(with no basis, just my gut feeling) that it will be small growth in 2011-2012 but optimism in the economy will not return for about 5 years. The crazy years are over and done with.

hinault

There are three separate issues holding is back :

1.World recession.
2.Our own recession
3.Is the economic fallout from the bank bailout.

World recession appears to have hit it's lowest point and is the world economy is starting to recover.
Due to this, I think we will see anaemic economic growth in years 2011 and 2012.

Our own recession will be prolonged because budget 2010, 2011, 2012 will be formatted on the basis of little or no economic growth for the economy.

The collapse of our banks - which is separate to the our own home grown recession/budget deficit - will be the ultimate determinant as to when this economy will recover.
The transfer of debt from the banks to the citizens of this state is truly frightening.
Personally i do not believe the politicians when they say that it is not €54billion bill for the tax payer.
I think that €54billion valuation for those loans is way over the odds.
I would think that the value of the loans will be €30billion at most.
Which means that there is immediately a €24billion shortfall.
This is separate to the current annual budget deficits €20billion.

What is certain is that the golden era 2000-2007 is gone forever.

johnnyc

Ah will the country it will take a min of 5 and a max 10... The country growth will be more linked to exports to countries in asia ( china, india etc) rather then the usa( which is a spent force in the short term).

ConsiderThis

hinault wrote: »

There are three separate issues holding is back :

1.World recession.
2.Our own recession
3.Is the economic fallout from the bank bailout.

Add to that the profligate government spending too.

My view is that NAMA will prolong the recession here by maintaining an artificially high commercial property market. You can't buck the market, and by artificially propping up the commercial property market, we will have to wait longer to begin recovery. One lesson our government seems to have forgotten is that you can't buck the market, and I fear our government will be throwing (our) good money after bad in its attempts to prop it up. That money will have to be repaid eventually, and we are paying far too much for the assets in NAMA.

lmimmfn

13/14 years should get us back to '97 times again methinks with Nama + tax increases planned for the next 4 years going to affect services and prices resulting in more unemployment, the idea that we'll have growth in Q4 next year is absolutely absurd especially considering more tax hikes due in december 2010/11/12.

If i remember my figures correctly we've had 6% negative growth for 3 years now, 18% in total, even if we have 2% growth next year, how many 2%'s needed to recover 18%, also the whole 'good times' here never ever existed as it was all happening with other peoples money so unless we want to do the same again, we will never ever be back to the 'good times' unless we strike oil and actually take ownership for it rather than giving it away.

ardmacha

If i remember my figures correctly we've had 6% negative growth for 3 years now,

Once again people remember figures that never happened. in this largely fact free forum where people thank you for quoting non existent statistics. In the last three years we had +5% growth, -3% in 2008 and perhaps -9% this year. In total the decline is now predicted to be -13.5% to the end of next year. After that there probably will be a reasonable year +4% say, as the international trade recovers. We've lost about 2.5 years growth 2004-2007, but then so has the UK.

lmimmfn

ardmacha wrote: »

Once again people remember figures that never happened. in this largely fact free forum where people thank you for quoting non existent statistics. In the last three years we had +5% growth, -3% in 2008 and perhaps -9% this year. In total the decline is now predicted to be -13.5% to the end of next year. After that there probably will be a reasonable year +4% say, as the international trade recovers. We've lost about 2.5 years growth 2004-2007, but then so has the UK.

well you never stated where your 'existent' figures come from, at least i said if i remember correctly and thats because it was in the times 5 or 6 months ago and im not digging that out if i even have it, which again is why i didnt quote it as fact in any way whatsoever.

I doubt the UK's situation is as dire as ours.

Liam Byrne

lmimmfn wrote: »

I doubt the UK's situation is as dire as ours.

Their reaction to their expenses scandal ALONE would prove that.

Anyone want to rejoin the UK ? It's never been a preference of mine, but then I never realised just how much "our own" wanted to shaft us to line their own pockets.

Oh to live in a proper democracy.

Scofflaw

This is from the IMF via indexmundi - Ireland's GDP at PPP:

Year|Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP|Percent Change
1980|22.533|
1981|25.264|12.12 %
1982|27.206|7.69 %
1983|28.075|3.19 %
1984|30.063|7.08 %
1985|31.576|5.03 %
1986|32.411|2.64 %
1987|34.566|6.65 %
1988|36.825|6.54 %
1989|40.362|9.60 %
1990|45.151|11.87 %
1991|47.519|5.24 %
1992|50.388|6.04 %
1993|52.692|4.57 %
1994|56.974|8.13 %
1995|63.74|11.88 %
1996|70.206|10.14 %
1997|79.657|13.46 %
1998|87.35|9.66 %
1999|98.078|12.28 %
2000|109.667|11.82 %
2001|118.584|8.13 %
2002|128.31|8.20 %
2003|136.82|6.63 %
2004|146.523|7.09 %
2005|158.481|8.16 %
2006|172.408|8.79 %
2007|188.028|9.06 %
2008|186.215|-0.96 %
2009|174.935|-6.06 %

Using the same sort of table, this shows how long it would take us to fall back at a 6% year on year contraction:

2010|164.44|-6.00%
2011|154.57|-6.00%
2012|145.3|-6.00%
2013|136.58|-6.00%
2014|128.39|-6.00%
2015|120.68|-6.00%
2016|113.44|-6.00%
2017|106.63|-6.00%
2018|100.24|-6.00%
2019|94.22|-6.00%
2020|88.57|-6.00%
2021|83.26|-6.00%
2022|78.26|-6.00%

So, yes, if we sustained 6% contraction year on year for the next 13 years we'd reach 1997 levels again. I can't think of any developed economy that has sustained such a contraction for such a period, though.

cordially,
Scofflaw

vinylbomb

IMF's GDP Annual percentage change forecast for the next 5 years


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Germany 2.516 1.248 -5.297 0.336 1.470 1.741 1.828 1.847
Ireland 6.024 -3.036 -7.500 -2.500 1.026 2.337 2.589 2.602
Italy 1.564 -1.040 -5.145 0.240 0.744 1.350 1.600 1.900
UK 2.559 0.742 -4.385 0.909 2.493 2.869 2.884 2.887
USA 2.141 0.439 -2.730 1.518 2.768 2.618 2.494 2.131


Those figures could be a hell of a lot worse. Viewed in terms of the other countries they are actually not that bad.


Apologies for the atrocious formatting, I'm on a mac with no Excel on it so cant stick the .csv from the report into the post.
All the figures came from the latest IMF report (Oct 09) available here

ConsiderThis

vinylbomb wrote: »

IMF's GDP Annual percentage change forecast for the next 5 years


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Germany 2.516 1.248 -5.297 0.336 1.470 1.741 1.828 1.847
Ireland 6.024 -3.036 -7.500 -2.500 1.026 2.337 2.589 2.602
Italy 1.564 -1.040 -5.145 0.240 0.744 1.350 1.600 1.900
UK 2.559 0.742 -4.385 0.909 2.493 2.869 2.884 2.887
USA 2.141 0.439 -2.730 1.518 2.768 2.618 2.494 2.131


Those figures could be a hell of a lot worse. Viewed in terms of the other countries they are actually not that bad.


Apologies for the atrocious formatting, I'm on a mac with no Excel on it so cant stick the .csv from the report into the post.
All the figures came from the latest IMF report (Oct 09) available here

The problem with a forecast is that its a guess!

Dannyboy83

vinylbomb wrote: »

IMF's GDP Annual percentage change forecast for the next 5 years


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Germany 2.516 1.248 -5.297 0.336 1.470 1.741 1.828 1.847
Ireland 6.024 -3.036 -7.500 -2.500 1.026 2.337 2.589 2.602
Italy 1.564 -1.040 -5.145 0.240 0.744 1.350 1.600 1.900
UK 2.559 0.742 -4.385 0.909 2.493 2.869 2.884 2.887
USA 2.141 0.439 -2.730 1.518 2.768 2.618 2.494 2.131


Those figures could be a hell of a lot worse. Viewed in terms of the other countries they are actually not that bad.


Apologies for the atrocious formatting, I'm on a mac with no Excel on it so cant stick the .csv from the report into the post.
All the figures came from the latest IMF report (Oct 09) available here

Thanks for posting that.
I guess the problem is that, this only looks at things from one perspective.
It ignores existing debt, new debt, current & capital spending etc. etc.

I don't think there has been anywhere near enough reform in our economy to justify that type of recovery as projected there.


I think after the December budget and a very bad xmas, those figures will be revised downward.
Given some of the recent OECD stuff, I'm starting to feel a lot less confident about hanging around this country.

Not much correction in our Government expenditure, not much correction in property etc.

gurramok

Sort out the structural deficit(may take years) and just wait until private debt levels decrease a bit and things may get better with proper growth to tackle unempolyment and provide jobs instead of exporting people.

However, the above depends a good bit on govt policy with that exchequer deficit problem as well as Nama.

Rantan

I think 2010 is going to be a really bad year and possibly with unemployment continuing to icrease and possibly into 2011, cant see any improvement for about 5 years to be honest. The rest of europe is beginning to improve so what really scares teh s**t out of me is the real chance interest rates are going to rise in the next 12months.

Scofflaw

vinylbomb wrote: »

IMF's GDP Annual percentage change forecast for the next 5 years


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Germany 2.516 1.248 -5.297 0.336 1.470 1.741 1.828 1.847
Ireland 6.024 -3.036 -7.500 -2.500 1.026 2.337 2.589 2.602
Italy 1.564 -1.040 -5.145 0.240 0.744 1.350 1.600 1.900
UK 2.559 0.742 -4.385 0.909 2.493 2.869 2.884 2.887
USA 2.141 0.439 -2.730 1.518 2.768 2.618 2.494 2.131


Those figures could be a hell of a lot worse. Viewed in terms of the other countries they are actually not that bad.


Apologies for the atrocious formatting, I'm on a mac with no Excel on it so cant stick the .csv from the report into the post.
All the figures came from the latest IMF report (Oct 09) available here

So if we plug those figures into mine, we get the following:

Year|GDP(PPP)|Change
2007|188.03|
2008|182.32|-3.04%
2009|168.65|-7.5%
2010|164.43|-2.5%
2011|166.12|1.03%
2012|170|2.34%
2013|174.4|2.59%
2014|178.94|2.6%
2015|183.41|2.5%
2016|188|2.5%
2017|192.7|2.5%
2018|197.51|2.5%
2019|202.45|2.5%
2020|207.51|2.5%
2021|212.7|2.5%
2022|218.02|2.5%

I'm assuming steady 2.5% from 2015 on - much lower than either our bubble or pre-bubble growth rates - but it doesn't make very much difference, because the IMF predictions take us almost back to the 2007 peak anyway.

Still, it's kind of scary that we're knocked back for the best part of a decade - assuming GDP is all one measures life by, that is. Over the next decade, it may become increasingly obvious it's not the most important measure.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Dannyboy83

Scofflaw wrote: »

So if we plug those figures into mine, we get the following:

Year|GDP(PPP)|Change
2007|188.03|
2008|182.32|-3.04%
2009|168.65|-7.5%
2010|164.43|-2.5%
2011|166.12|1.03%
2012|170|2.34%
2013|174.4|2.59%
2014|178.94|2.6%
2015|183.41|2.5%
2016|188|2.5%
2017|192.7|2.5%
2018|197.51|2.5%
2019|202.45|2.5%
2020|207.51|2.5%
2021|212.7|2.5%
2022|218.02|2.5%

I'm assuming steady 2.5% from 2015 on - much lower than either our bubble or pre-bubble growth rates - but it doesn't make very much difference, because the IMF predictions take us almost back to the 2007 peak anyway.

Still, it's kind of scary that we're knocked back for the best part of a decade - assuming GDP is all one measures life by, that is. Over the next decade, it may become increasingly obvious it's not the most important measure.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw,

What are the pre-reqs necessary in order to achieve a recovery of that type, on the given timeframe (supplied by you)?

vinylbomb

Those figures up to 2014 are from the IMF, who are no strangers to taking the least positive view when necessary.
Obviously if they are willing to put these figures out in the public domain they feel that the prerequisites for recovery are already there - whatever those prerequisites may be.