Facebook going public

Lexus1976

Does anybody have any information in relation to this?

Smcgie

Yes be carefull with IPO's like this. Facebook could be at its peak at present. I am interested in this myself but always remember something like this can be wiped out completely by a new 'trend'

pocketdooz

Smcgie wrote: »

Yes be carefull with IPO's like this. Facebook could be at its peak at present. I am interested in this myself but always remember something like this can be wiped out completely by a new 'trend'

I agree

Always ask yourself one important question when you hear of IPOs.

WHY is the equity owner willing to sell now?

Usually the answer is because he feels the valuation is nearing its peak and he is happy to sell his ownership/equity stake at the current valuation.

IPO = Is Probably Overpriced.


True some people make lots of money from IPO issuance but they are rarely people like you and I. You can point to exceptions of course but on average . . . .

Raskolnikov

Bebo was sold to AOL for $850 million. AOL haven't made a penny off this but yet users are deserting en masse. I predict that AOL will lose close to 100% of the investment.

phantom_lord

a girl in my class reckons it's about to go the same way as bebo, it is at absolute saturation point atm. i wouldn't trust her judgement on many areas, but the success of social networking sites would be one of the few!

blackbetty69

so 300 million users are gonna just move to another social networking site? i dont think so somehow, not in the near future anyway.. bebo was for teenagers really, facebook is for all generations

phantom_lord

blackbetty69 wrote: »

so 300 million users are gonna just move to another social networking site? i dont think so somehow

no i don't think so, but i wouldn't expect much more growth, and i'd expect declining visits from those 300m users.

pocketdooz

phantom_lord wrote: »

no i don't think so, but i wouldn't expect much more growth, and i'd expect declining visits from those 300m users.

I agree.

Look at the trend.

1st AOL, then My Space, then Bebo - all declining.

Facebook has just barely turned cash-flow positive. And they are valuing at €10 billion plus? Totally different concept to Google - Google is a cash generating machine.

Facebook is going to be purely advertising-based and kids throwing fantasy cakes at each other and buying each other virtual presents for $1. They dont have the revenue streams.

I suppose the argument isn't really whether those people go elsewhere though. The argument is (1) whether you can turn those 300 million or whatever people into real hard cash and (2) whether you are happy valuing a company that barely turns a profit at €10+ billion.

.

PeakOutput

phantom_lord wrote: »

no i don't think so, but i wouldn't expect much more growth, and i'd expect declining visits from those 300m users.

luckily for facebook their revenue is not dependant on how many users they have(over a certain point at least)

i would argue that anything over 100million regular users is going to keep the advertisers there and facebook earning money

i would guess their overheads are tiny when compared with a company in a different sector with the potential for similar revenue

like google facebook can control their income to a large extent by changing their terms and conditions for their advertisers. if they start to do worse they can get rid of a t+c that stops say gambling websites advertising on their site. bam increased revenue

also facebook was here at the start of social networking and is still around. it has never been as flash as the other sites but it has stood the test of time(as much as an internet company can i guess) and is in a great position to diversify


having said all that i heard today the creator / owner of twitter has not seen one penny of profit so far the internet is certainly a strange organism

id also like to add that this all the opinion of a casual observer who is trying to set up an online business i am open to correction and welcome it so i can learn on anything i have said

Lexus1976

Might be of interest

http://www.itproportal.com/portal/news/article/2009/11/22/facebooks-common-stock-value-makes-sharp-increase/

pocketdooz

Today's WSJ . . .

Facebook Inc. took steps to solidify the control of founder Mark Zuckerberg and other existing shareholders in the event the social-networking company goes public.

The closely held Silicon Valley firm, emulating one of Google Inc.'s well-known strategies, established a dual-class stock structure that would increase the voting power of Mr. Zuckerberg, who is the company's chief executive, and other existing shareholders if they hold onto their shares during an IPO.

Tyrant^

http://siteanalytics.compete.com/facebook.com+bebo.com+twitter.com/

Monthly Changes
Facebook +3.5%
Bebo -10.91%
twitter -2.11%
myspace -0.65%
flickr -1.43%

Unique visitors
google - 146,027,962 (I know its not a social networking site!)
facebook - 128,940,004